DFS Alerts

This Pitcher Has Surrendered 15 Home Runs & 20 Barrels in a Nine Start Stretch

Zach Davies has allowed at least four earned runs in six of his last nine starts with 15 home runs on 20 barrels (16%) over that span. Season estimators all exceed five. As such, the Brewers have the third highest implied run line on the board tonight (5.48) and the moderate to low price tags on their bats make them even more attractive. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Davies this year, so players should be comfortable rostering nearly anyone the Brewers send up there against him. Well, maybe not Jackie Bradley Jr. (35 wRC+, .107 ISO vs RHP this year). However, each of the other seven batters in the projected lineup exceed a 100 wRC+ vs RHP with only Christian Yelich (.121) below a .150 ISO. Omar Narvaez (124 wRC+, .159 ISO) and Luis Urias (112 wRC+, .194 ISO) are each within $100 of $2.5K on FanDuel tonight. Dan Vogelbach (105 wRC+, .174 ISO) costs exactly that much on DraftKings.

Every Batter in This Projected Lineup Has Been Hammering RHP

The Tigers are now using Casey Mize like an opener, facing just nine and 11 batters in his last two starts, finish up the season. With just an 18.9 K% and 10.2% Barrels/BBE, despite nearly half his contact on the ground (49.4%), Mize does not have an estimator within half a run of his 3.66 ERA (.249 BABIP, 80.7 LOB%) with a 4.44 xFIP his only one below four and a half. The fact that Mize may go through the lineup just a single time shouldn’t be much of a deterrent for Rays’ bats tonight because the young pitcher is backed by a bullpen with a 5.10 xFIP and 4.85 SIERA over the last 30 days. Every batter in the projected Tampa Bay lineup exceeds a 100 wRC+ vs RHP with only Yandy Diaz below a .150 ISO. Giving LHBs a small bump for Mize’s large platoon split (LHBs .361 wOBA, .386 xwOBA – RHBs .267, .299), Brandon Lowe (153 wRC+. .304 ISO) and Austin Meadows (138 wRC+, .292 IS) are top of the board bats, while Ji-Man Choi (140 wRC+, .231 ISO) is a great value. Even Brett Phillips (144 wRC+, .281 ISO) is suddenly smashing RHP this year. While the extremely negative run environment of the Trop is often a concern, it should be less of one tonight because poor hitting conditions seem to be prevailing across many of the more positive run environments tonight.

Six Extra-Base Hits in 23 PAs Against Tonight's Pitcher

Michael Pineda has struck out exactly three in five straight appearances (one in relief), going back to before he hit the IL in August. As usual, Pineda exhibits excellent control (4.7 BB%) with some issues in his contact profile (90.7 mph EV), though just a 20.4 K% this year. His 3.87 ERA is below, but within half a run of most contact neutral estimators with an xERA nearly a full run higher (4.81). That he has a .313 wOBA against RHBs would seem to help him in a matchup with a predominantly right-handed lineup. However, Statcast raises that to a .340 xwOBA, which is much less ideal against the Toronto Blue Jays, who have the fourth best implied run line tonight (5.43). Randal Grichuk (91) is the only batter in the projected lineup below a 98 wRC+ vs RHP this season and nobody is below a .160 ISO. This would seem like a smash spot for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (171 wRC+, .315 ISO vs RHP) and friends. George Springer (139 wRC+, .319 ISO) even has a history of smashing Pineda, homering three times and adding three doubles in 23 PAs against him good for a .504 xwOBA with a 95.6 mph EV.

An Awful Bullpen Can Make Even Terrible Offenses Look Good

It seems like the easiest thing to do on each slate is search for whoever is facing the Orioles and that’s the offense you want the most exposure to on any given night. On most nights, and tonight is no exception, that’s the team with the highest run total on the board. The Orioles are at Fenway tonight and the Red Sox have a 6.72 implied run line that’s more than a run above any other team on the board. With 16 home runs in just 85.2 innings, 10.3% of Keegan Akin’s contact has been barreled with just a 19.7 K%. A 4.87 SIERA is his only estimator below four. He has only a one point difference in his platoon split just above a .360 wOBA making just about everyone in the lineup viable in this spot and even if Akin is knocked out quickly, the Red Sox will be dealing with the worst bullpen in baseball over the last 30 days (6.55 ERA, 5.37 FIP, 5.17 xFIP, 4.86 SIERA) and one of their better relievers, Cole Sulser, threw 30 pitches yesterday. Just one batter in the projected Boston lineup (Christian Vazquez) is below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this season. Considering Akin’s .361 xwOBA against RHBs matches his actual wOBA, while LHBs are 60 points lower, we can look at Hunter Renfroe (144 wRC+, .258 ISO vs LHP), Enrique Hernandez (128 wRC+, .231 ISO) and Bobby Dalbec (122 wRC+. 242 ISO) as not only top bats, but exceptional values.

The Washington Nationals (5.98 FIP, 5.12 xFIP) and Arizona Diamondbacks (5.19 FIP, 5.78 xFIP, 5.21 SIERA) are the only other bullpens with at least two estimators above five for the last 30 days. While not much further incentive is needed to attack a left-handed pitcher with estimators well above four (Madison Bumgarner) in Houston with the second highest team total on the board (5.54 runs), Washington is a more interesting spot. It’s an overall positive run environment, but a park downgrade for the visiting team with a 70 wRC+ in road games this year, who are facing a pitcher who has shown some strikeout upside. However, Josiah Gray has allowed 17 home runs (23.9 HR/FB with just a 29.8 GB%) on 17 barrels (12.4%) and his swinging strike rate is no higher than 8.5% in three straight starts. Also, he has walked at least three in three of his last four, including six Pirates last time out. That the Rockies even have a 4.5 implied run line on the road is very telling. LHBs have a .372 wOBA and .351 xwOBA against Gray, while RHBs haven’t done poorly either (.384/.311). Unfortunately, Colorado bats are priced for Coors on DraftKings tonight, but much cheaper on FanDuel. Ryan McMahon (109 wRC+, .231 ISO) has been one of the few above average bats on this team against RHP this year.

A Top FanDuel Value & a Cheap SP2

Dylan Cease has reverted back to old habits in recent starts. That is to say that he’s walked at least three in four of his last seven, allowing at least three runs in five of those starts (though more earned runs only in his last start). The good news is that even with an 11.5 BB% over his last seven starts and 13.2 BB% over his last five, Cease is retaining a strikeout rate above 30% and still has a 21.3 K-BB% with estimators below four on the season. The better news is that he faces the Rangers (86 wRC+ vs RHP) in a negative run environment (with the roof closed) and costs no more than $9.1K on either site. Three of the first five projected batters in the Texas lineup have at least a 28 K% vs RHP this year. Cease may be the top FanDuel value ($8.6K) if he can rediscover his control.

Cease may be the only pitcher on the board with a price tag below $9K who can stand alone as a strong value on either site. German Marquez is within $200 of $9K on either site in Washington, one of the few pitchers who can call that a park upgrade, but recorded just his second quality start in six outings last time out with six shutout innings against the Phillies (six strikeouts), though he still has a 6.23 ERA and 5.57 FIP over this span. He’s had two games with three home runs and just a 64% strand rate, but is keeping more than half his contact on the ground this season (51.2%) with just 4.8% Barrels/BBE. In fact, 19 of his 22 barrels have left the yard. Combine that with a 16.1 K-BB% and Marquez’s estimators are all within half a run of his 3.93 ERA, all below four. That’s good, but not great and only three batters in the projected Washington lineup exceed a 20.4 K% vs RHP.

Luis Castillo allowed more than three runs in a game for just the second time since May last time out, but it was still a respectable performance (7 IP – 4 ER – 5 K) with 70% of his contact on the ground. In fact, he’s generated at least a 53.3 GB% in 13 straight starts with a 26 K%, 3.28 ERA and 3.36 xFIP over that span. Season estimators are all above three and a half, but below his 4.24 ERA. That’s pretty good and he would be a strong candidate for $9K or less in most spots, but against the Dodgers (108 wRC+ vs RHP, 137 wRC+ last seven days) in Cincinnati might be an exception. For those looking for a lower priced SP2 on DraftKIngs, Elieser Hernandez combines a league average strikeout rate (23.4%) with elite control (4.4 BB%) and has a great matchup (Pirates 82 wRC+) in a great park at a low cost $6.8K.

Maybe the Top Pitcher on the Top Team, But Not the Most Espensive

Although all 30 teams are on the Friday night slate, Zack Wheeler is the only pitcher on the board to reach $10K on both sites. After a 10 start stretch where he allowed at least three runs eight times (4.59 ERA) and probably ruined his Cy Young chances, Wheeler’s allowed just a single run over his last 12.2 innings, striking out 17 of 50 batters. He has failed to record at least two sixth inning outs in just two starts this year with a 23.5 K-BB% and only a single estimator above three (3.21 SIERA). Big park upgrade, pitching in his previous home park tonight. The Mets have a 96 wRC+ vs RHP with four of eight in the projected lineup above a 24 K% against them this year. It wouldn’t be wrong to consider Wheeler your top pitcher tonight and a pretty decent value on either site.

The second most expensive pitcher on the board, Walker Buehler costs $10.2K on DraftKings and $300 less on FanDuel. Much like Wheeler, a large chuck of Buehler’s value lies in his workload. He has failed to complete six innings just twice this year and a quality start just four times, but he’s now struck out just 11 of his last 72 with a 9.5 SwStr%. He’s also allowed a home run in five of his last six starts after going 11 out of 12 starts without one. With a .239 BABIP and 82.9 LOB%, his 2.32 ERA is well below estimators ranging from a 3.09 xERA to a 3.76 SIERA. He gets a substantial park downgrade in Cincinnati, facing an offense with a 110 wRC+ at home and 106 wRC+ vs RHP this year, while the highest strikeout rate in the projected lineup against RHP this season is 24.7%. These matchup factors place him behind Wheeler tonight.

Chris Sale is the only other pitcher to reach the $10K mark on either site tonight and he costs exactly that on FanDuel, $500 less on DraftKings. Sale missed a start on the COVID list, but has made five of them this year striking out 30 of 109 batters, exceeding a 12.5 SwStr% four times. He has allowed four home runs (19 HR/FB), but two of them in his first start and just two barrels so far. The Orioles have a 105 wRC+ vs LHP this year, but they just made Nestor Cortes and Jordan Montgomery look like…well…Chris Sale. Five batters in the projected lineup exceed a 25 K% vs LHP. Concerns would be the positive environment that is Fenway, though weather will not aid bats tonight, and workload. Will the Red Sox be more cautious with Sale after missing a start. He’s only exceeded 90 pitches once this season anyway.

Logan Webb is the only other pitcher exceeding $9K on both sites and he may not only be the top value among the high priced arms, but has recently been showing enough upside to consider him in contention for top pitcher on the board. In fact, it wouldn’t be crazy to consider Logan Webb the best starter on the best team in baseball right now. He’s only gotten better as the season’s gone on, striking out 26.2% of batters with a 61.1 GB% and 87.6 mph EV. His worst estimator and only one more than half a run above his 2.80 ERA is a 3.38 xERA and he snapped a string of nine straight quality starts last time out at Wrigley. The Braves have a 101 wRC+ vs RHP, but Webb pitches in a great park and just three in the projected lineup have a strikeout rate below 22.6% against RHP this year.

Mike Yastrzemski (elbow) scratched Wednesday

Yastrzemski is a late scratch from the Giants’ lineup for Wednesday’s matchup against the San Diego Padres due to a sore elbow he’s been experiencing since being hit by a pitch late in Tuesday night’s contest. In his absence, Steven Duggar will take over the defensive responsibilities in center field and slot into the vacated eighth spot in the San Francisco batting order this evening.

Why Such a Low Team Total Against a Struggling Pitcher?

The White Sox are the team in Chicago tonight with the highest implied run line on the board (5.81) against rookie Janson Junk, while the Angels are near the bottom of the board with a team total of just 3.69 runs. That might be a bit light though, especially considering Dallas Keuchel’s recent performance, walking more (12) than he’s struck out (11) over his last six starts. His ERA is up to 5.33 on the season with his best estimator a 4.62 xFIP. Keuchel’s allowing 9.3% Barrels/BBE even with 55% of his contact on the ground. While batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA against him, Statcast widens his split to 70 points (LHBs .312 xwOBA, RHBs .382), which is not necessarily good news against a predominantly right-handed lineup. To be clear, Phil Gosselin hasn’t performed well against LHP this season (95 wRC+, .095 ISO), but he is cheap (less than $3K) and generally batting near the top of the lineup for some reason, which makes him a strong value in this spot. David Fletcher (126 wRC+, .107 ISO) has been better, while also lacking power, but is cheap as well. Jo Adell (104 wRC+, .250 ISO) is also within $200 of $3K on either site. An Angels stack tonight probably let’s players do whatever else they want with the rest of their lineup.

Same-Handed Batters Exceed a .400 wOBA Against This Pitcher

On most nights, the roof is closed in Texas and that makes it a negative run environment. However, that doesn’t necessarily make this a bad spot for the Houston Astros, who have the fourth highest implied run line on the board (5.39). In nine starts, Kohei Arihara has just a 6.3 K-BB% with a 91.7 mph EV, allowing 14.3% Barrels/BBE. Just nine of his 17 barrels have left the yard, yet he still has a 5.89 ERA that’s only half a run above his best estimator. Arihara’s worst problems have come against RHBs (.426 wOBA, .438 xwOBA) and that’s even worse news against a predominantly right-handed offense, though LHBs have hit him well too (.310 wOBA, .359 xwOBA). Among the first seven batters in the projected lineup for Houston tonight, which generally remains fairly stable, all have a wRC+ above 115 vs RHP this year. The unfortunate thing is that Houston bats aren’t cheap, but that might not be much of an issue without very much in the way of expensive pitching tonight. Kyle Tucker (150 wRC+, .250 ISO) has been their best bat against RHP this year, though Chas McCormick (109 wRC+, .187 ISO) barely costs more than the minimum on either site. A middle of the order stack here might be more interesting than the top, although there’s no reason not to include Jose Altuve (140 wRC+, .231 ISO) and Alex Bregman (116 wRC+, .162 ISO).

Conditions are Ripe for an Offensive Explosion in this Park

Alec Mills has been a competent back end pitcher by walk of excellent control (5.9 BB%), keeping the ball on the ground (51.7%) and avoiding barrels (4.5%), despite just a 16.9 K%. His 4.35 ERA is less than one-fifth of a run removed from all estimators. Sounds like a guy who’s probably not going to generate you many daily fantasy points, but also not someone you’re immediately stacking up against either. However, Weather Edge is currently suggesting a large offensive boost to a park that’s already very hitter friendly, the end result being the possibility of the Philadelphia playing somewhat like Coors tonight. Mills also has a nearly 100 point wOBA and xwOBA platoon split (LHBs .381, .364) with a 43.2 GB%. It now becomes clear that left-handed Phillies are who we really want tonight. That makes Bryce Harper (193 wRC+, .382 ISO vs RHP this year) potentially the top bat on the board. Harper has a 211 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 184 wRC+ (.329 ISO) at home this year. Brad Miller (129 wRC+, .255 ISO) and Odubel Herrera (104 wRC+, .186 ISO) are your value plays. Both cost $2.5K or less on FanDuel. The Phillies have the fifth highest team total on the board tonight (5.26 runs) and that may even be too low, considering the conditions.

These Bats are Waking Up & Have Hit LHP Well All Year (109 wRC+)

A 10 game Wednesday evening slate finds six teams reaching an implied run line of five tonight, but then a steep drop off with nobody else above 4.5. The White Sox top the board (5.81) against a bit of an unknown in Janson Junk, who is not much of a prospect (35+ Future Value grade via Fangraphs), but had a K-BB above 18% over 93 AA innings for two different teams before making the jump straight to the majors, striking out just two of 18 Rangers, allowing as many home runs in his debut. Right behind them (5.74) are the Yankees. The bats from the Bronx have been waking up (123 wRC+ last seven days), but have been handling LHP well all year (109 wRC+) and they get one of the few parks that could be considered an upgrade, at least in terms of power for RHBs. John Means has increased his strikeout rate to 23.7% over his last five starts and has three quality starts in his last four, but his 3.42 ERA on the season is still about a run below estimators ranging from a 4.08 xERA (87.2 mph EV, but 10.2% Barrels/BBE with a 32.1 GB%) to a 4.76 DRA. RHBs have been about average against him this year (.290 wOBA, .302 xwOBA), but at home, they have a .344 wOBA with 12 home runs against Means. To make matters even worse (or better, depending on your perspective), Means is backed by a bullpen with a 6.95 ERA, 5.91 FIP, 5.38 xFIP and 4.95 SIERA over the last 30 days. Aaron Judge (156 wRC+, .252 ISO vs LHP this season) is one of the top bats on the board. Both he and Giancarlo Stanton (145 wRC+, .236 ISO) have a 171 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Luke Voit (127 wRC+, .162 ISO) and Gary Sanchez (131 wRC+, .298 ISO) are your value bats here, both costing less than $4K on DraftKings and around $500 less on FanDuel.

Upside with Risk on the Middle of the Board Tonight

Without a must have dominant arm atop the board tonight, players might consider building their lineups around bats and paying down for pitching. If that’s the case, there are a few spots where we might find some upside, but with risk (otherwise they’d cost more). The most obvious name is Tylor Megill, who costs $9.2K on DraftKings, but $1.4K less on FanDuel, where he might just be the top value tonight. Megill has allowed 12 home runs (20.3 HR/FB) on 17 barrels (12.6%) over his last 10 starts, so there are certainly some issues in the contact profile, but only four of his 15 home runs have come to RHBs, which gives him an advantage against the Cardinals and the strikeout upside is real (27.2% with just a 6.2 BB%). Non-FIP estimators are about half a run lower than his 4.06 ERA and that includes his xERA (3.43). While Citi Field is usually a solidly negative run environment, the weather might have something to say about that tonight (Weather Edge is currently expecting a substantial boost to bats, but in a very small sample). Either way, the Cardinals have just an 88 wRC+ vs RHP, though the projected lineup includes just two batters above a 20.5 K% against them this year.

The remaining three pitchers exceeding a 25 K%, but costing less than $9K are Huascar Ynoa, Nestor Cortes and Ranger Suarez. Ynoa struck out seven of 20 Nationals last time out to push his strikeout rate up to 27% and those strikeouts are necessary because his 90.5 mph EV has led to 9.0% Barrels/BBE. However with a 20.4 K-BB% most of his estimators are within half a run of his 3.22 ERA. The lone exception being a 4.17 xERA built off that contact profile. Great matchup (Rockies 71 wRC+ on the road, 77 wRC+ vs RHP), but in a difficult run environment with a hitter friendly umpire.

Cortes & Suarez are both recently converted relievers. Cortes has increased his swinging strike rate over his last five starts (11.6%) to the point where it can actually support his strikeout rate (24.8% last five starts). He’s allowed 10 home runs over his last 47.2 innings, but just nine barrels (6.6%) with estimators all over the place this season, ranging from a 3.11 xERA to 4.43 DRA. The O’s have a 109 wRC+ at home and 107 wRC+ vs LHP with four in the projected lineup exceeding a 24 K% vs LHP. The matchup and environment are the major challenges here, similar to Suarez because Philadelphia is expecting a major weather boost tonight in a not so small sample and the Cubs can still hit LHP (101 wRC+), though the projected lineup includes five batters above a 24 K% against lefties this year. Suarez has allowed just seven runs over 37.2 innings since moving into the rotation. While some of the early success has been due to strand rate luck and he still hasn’t allowed a home run, the strikeout rate is up over his last four starts (27.5%), while he has just one start with less than half of his contact on the ground as a starter with an 86.2 mph EV.

Thankfully, players probably aren’t going to need a cheap punt in their SP2 spot on DraftKings tonight because that guy doesn’t really exist tonight. Dallas Keuchel, Griffin Jax, Jon Lester and even Mike Minor all have strikeout rates below 16% over the last month, while Arihara is below 15% for the year. Merrill Kelly returning from injury. John Means is facing the Yankees in Baltimore. He has had some contact profile issues recently and the Yankees can still pound on LHP. Lastly, Alec Mills has just a 16.9 K% and pitches in a terrible environment tonight. The upper middle of the board is where it’s at tonight.

Competence Rather than Dominant at the Top of the Board Tonight

Julio Urias is the only pitcher above $10K on either site on a night where there’s no clear top pitcher on a 10 game slate. The largest obstacle to Julio Urias’s daily fantasy usefulness is workload because the rate stats are fantastic (21.7 K-BB%, 86.2 mph EV, 5.9% Barrels/BBE). Estimators are a bit above his ERA, but range from a 3.27 FIP to a 3.67 xFIP. Consider that he has allowed more than three earned runs just five times this year, but only has just 12 quality starts in 28 attempts. However, he has competed seven innings with one run or less seven times too. Can he return some value on this price tag? Sure, but he just has to be extremely efficient to get there. The first four in the projected lineup for Arizona all strike out less than 19% of the time against LHP this season, but the bottom four exceed 27% with the caveat being that two of the bottom four have fewer than 20 PAs against LHP this year.

Jose Urquidy is the second most expensive pitcher on either site and he costs exactly $10K on DraftKings. The major prolemb here is that he has been brought back slowly after two months on the IL, striking out six of the 33 batters he’s faced over two starts. On the season, Urquidy strikes out enough to be effective (21.4%) with elite control (4.8 BB%), but has generated just 31.4% of his control on the ground. His 3.51 ERA is well below contact neutral estimators, but just slightly below a 3.61 xERA. The matchup is great in a pitcher friendly park when the roof is closed against an offense with just an 87 wRC+ vs RHP, while four in the projected lineup exceed a 25 K% vs RHP this year, but he hasn’t thrown more than 71 pitches since June.

Now that we’ve realized our pitching needs aren’t going to be extremely expensive tonight, we find Joe Musgrove and Sean Manaea exceeding $9K on both sites. Both are actually slightly less expensive (and therefore better values) on FanDuel. Musgrove has probably ended up being San Diego’s best pitching acquisition this year even if his 2.93 ERA is more than a half run below all non-DRA estimators. He’s struck out 27.6% with just a 6.9 BB% and 6.1% Barrels/BBE, He has seven quality starts over his last nine attempts with an 86.5 mph EV. He has a tough matchup (Giants 116 wRC+ at home, 109 wRC+ vs RHP) in a favorable park with some upside (five batters in the projected San Francisco lineup exceed a 23 K% vs RHP).

After struggling through the month of August (9.90 ERA, 7.96 FIP), Manaea has certainly bounced back in September. He’s completed seven innings with nine strikeouts in both his starts, allowing just three total runs against the Blue Jays and White Sox, two offenses that normally crush LHP. All estimators are back below four, within one-quarter of a run of his 3.79 ERA. While Kansas City isn’t really a negative run environment as much as it’s a power suppressing one, conditions may be slightly in Manaea’s favor, considering weather and umpire. The Royals are slightly better against LHP (96 wRC+), while only two batters in the projected lineup exceed a 20.5 K% against LHP this year. Expectations need to be limited for pitchers tonight, as we’re probably settling more for competence than finding dominance.

LHBs Exceed a .400 wOBA & xwOBA Against This Pitcher in No Small Sample

It’s not the greatest hitting environment and when you took a look at the Padres’ rotation back in April, you probably didn’t think there were going to be many cases where daily fantasy players were looking to attack their pitching, but they’ve recently been pressed into a situation where Jake Arrieta has been making regular starts for them. How bad is that? The Giants currently have the fifth highest implied run line on the board (5.06) and the biggest reason for that is that LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA that exceeds .400 this year against Arrieta. We’re not talking about some small, early season sample either. He’s faced 232 LHBs this year. The projected San Francisco lineup? Tommy LaStella owns both the only wRC+ below 118 vs RHP this year (92) and only ISO below (.180) and he’s projected to bat leadoff for less than $3K on either site. And that includes batters from both sides of the plate, not just LH San Francisco batters. Another great value play would be LaMonte Wade (145 wRC+, .283 ISO), who’s recently moved from leadoff to cleanup and still costs $3.6K or less on either site. Another affordable LH bat in the top half of this order is Brandon Belt (150 wRC+, .332 ISO), who owns a 169 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall.

A Lot of Cheap Bats in This Hitter Friendly Environment

While Erick Fedde and Jesus Luzardo have already been discussed as two low priced pitchers with potential upside considering recent strikeout rate increases, these are still two pitchers with serious run prevention problems that we should still consider attacking if we don’t absolutely need to use them in our lineups. While neither offense carries a lot of punch, and that’s part of the appeal of these low priced pitchers, Washington is a great hitting environment and the weather is going to do nothing to discourage that tonight. What we have here are cheap bats. We’re looking at one in particular on the Miami side and that’s Jesus Sanchez (106 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP this season), costing within $200 of $3K on either site, though Jazz Chisholm (104 wRC+, .179 ISO) is affordable as well and LHBs have a .355 wOBA against Fedde this year.

The other side of this is more interesting because although we’re dealing with smaller samples and Jesus Luzardo certainly is the pitcher with more upside, the Washington lineup has more bats who have excelled against LHP and RHBs own a .393 wOBA against Luzardo this year. Right at the top, Lane Thomas (222 wRC+, .220 ISO vs LHP this season) might be the top punt outfielder on the board at less than $3K on either site. In fact, Carter Kieboom and Alcides Escobar are the only two batters in the projected lineup below a 100 wRC+ or .213 ISO against LHP this year, while LHBs have fared well against Luzardo as well this year (.346 wOBA). While to most the world, this Miami/Washington game seems like two bottom feeders playing out the string, this game actually holds great interest on multiple fronts for daily fantasy players.