DFS Alerts

This Catcher Has Pummeled His Former Battery Mate

We saw a lot of runs scored at Wrigley last night (mostly by the Phillies) with the wind blowing out and conditions are expected to be similar with temperatures in the mid-80s and about a 10 mph wind out towards center. The only difference is that one team has a quality pitcher on the mound tonight, but Aaron Nola hasn’t been untouchable. Though, with Jake Arrieta on the mound for the Cubs, the Phillies have the higher implied run line by half a run (5.05 to 4.45). The majority of Nola’s issues have come against LHBs (.324 wOBA, .322 xwOBA since last season) and while that gives Joc Pederson (93 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP since 2020) some value, particularly on FanDuel ($2.9K), Anthony Rizzo (104 wRC+, .215 ISO) has feasted on Nola’s offerings in 15 PAs that include two home runs and a 99 mph EV. In fact, Rizzo is one of two batters with at least 15 PAs against tonight’s pitcher with two home runs and an xwOBA above .500. The other is J.T. Realmuto (112 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP since 2020) against former battery mate Jake Arrieta. In 18 PAs, Realmuto has two homers, a triple, two doubles and a .510 xwOBA. Jake Arrieta’s issues have now extended beyond LHBs, as batters from either side of the plate now exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season. Over his last four starts, Arrieta has allowed five home runs and 18 runs (13 earned) in 14.2 innings, while walking 11 of the 76 batters he’s faced with just 14 strikeouts. His top estimator this season is a 4.92 xFIP. Bryce Harper (147 wRC+, .284 ISO) is one of the top overall bats on the board tonight.

Weather Boost Could Turn Suppressive Park More Power Friendly

The Cincinnati Reds have just an 84 wRC+ vs LHP and 90 wRC+ on the road, as the power centric lineup often suffers away from their power friendly home park. Theoretically, that would make facing a lefty in Kansas City, one of the most power suppressive parks in the league, a terrible spot for them, but there are a couple of reasons that may not be so. The first is weather. With temperatures near 90 degrees and a breeze out to left field at a bit less than 10 mph, Weather Edge currently suggests a sizeable boost to an already positive run environment in terms of scoring and power. The second is that Kris Bubic has allowed 10 home runs over his last three starts. Small caveat that all three of those starts were on the road (Boston, Oakland, Los Angeles), but batters from either side of the plate now exceed a .345 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season. Noting all this, Cincinnati has the second highest implied run line on the slate (5.23). Platoon power bats, Tyler Stephenson (121 wRC+, .264 ISO vs LHP since 2020) and Aristedes Aquino (115 wRC+, .286 ISO) are two of the top values on FanDuel for $2.5K or less, while Nick Castellanos (131 wRC+, .262 ISO) is the top bat in the lineup against LHP. Should the Reds take Bubic out of this game early, the Kansas City bullpen is one of just three bullpens with an ERA and FIP above five over the last 30 days (Arizona and Colorado are the others).

Increasing Strikeouts and Ground Balls at a Reasonable Price

High priced pitching, particularly the one guy with the highest price tag and potentially the best matchup, which may also make him the top value, will likely be in high demand tonight. There are alternatives, but they are also high priced, at least on FanDuel, while players will also now need a much cheaper SP2 alternative on DraftKings. One pitcher who may be able to stand on his own as an alternative for just $8.5K is Luis Castillo. Over his last five starts, Castillo has a 25.8 K% and 59 GB%. The 2.25 ERA and 2.50 FIP are a bit below additional estimators because he didn’t surrender a home run, but he started so poorly that he’s still carrying an ERA above five. It’s still not the upside we’re used to in his strikeout rate, but estimators now range tightly from a 3.94 FIP to a 4.35 DRA with room for further improvement. He gets a subtle park upgrade in Kansas City and that’s because it’s a substantial upgrade from a power suppression standpoint, but still a positive run environment and currently expected to give a weather boost to hitters tonight. However, five of nine batters in the projected Kansas City lineup exceed a 27 K% vs RHP since last season.

Another pitcher who may be able to stand on his own is Shohei Ohtani. However, he’s not available as a pitcher on FanDuel. Ohtani had gone into his last game walking just five of his last previous 94 batters with 32 strikeouts before imploding against the Yankees (four walks, one strikeout, one HBP, nine batters faced). His walk rate is now back up to 13.6% and only a 3.00 DRA is not within one-third of a run of his 3.60 ERA. When he doesn’t walk batters, he can give you six innings with close to double digit strikeouts. He costs $8.3K on DraftKings.

Dane Dunning costs $7.5K or less in a home matchup with the Tigers. is one of the few pitchers utilizing a sinker more than half the time (53.5%) and one of even fewer still getting away with it (24.4 K%, 52 GB%). He’s thrown more than 85 pitches just once in a start though. The Rangers don’t want opposing batters seeing that sinker too many times. This probably kills his FanDuel value, as the quality start prospective is near nil, but he could still reach value on DraftKings as an SP2 against a team with a 92 wRC+ and 26.3 K% vs RHP. Jon Gray has just a 20.6 K%, but with 52.4% of his contact on the ground and just 4.2% Barrels/BBE that has his 3.52 xERA below his 3.89 ERA, but all of his other estimators above four. He’s in Arizona (80 wRC+ vs RHP) and costs just $7.3K on DraftKings. Pablo Lopez was ridiculously ejected from his last start after hitting the first batter. Previously, there’d been a velocity spike in his last two starts (16 Ks – 46 BF – 2 R – 13 IP). He now has a 31.8 K% over his last five starts and has an 86.3 mph EV for the year with nearly half his contact (48.5%) on the ground. While he’s facing the Dodgers (116 wRC+ vs RHP), he does so in a negative run environment he’s thrived at in his career for less than $8K. It’s going to be very difficult to go below $7K for your SP2, unless you have confidence in Jose Urena in Texas.

The Easy Pitching Answer and the Top Leverage Alternatives

The most interesting thing about Tuesday’s 14 game slate is that it’s both pitching rich with six pitchers reaching the $10K mark on either FanDuel, DraftKings or both and has the potential for several weather aided hitter boosts, according to Weather Edge. The easy answer to all of your pitching questions that don’t concern ownership is Jacob deGrom. He is at least $11.5K and more than $1K more than any other pitcher on either site and is pitching in one of those potentially weather boosted parks, but he’s so damn good and the park is such a negative run environment that even a large boost won’t hurt him too much, especially when you consider the matchup. DeGrom allowed three runs to the Braves in the first inning last time out after allowing two runs for the first time in a start this year the previous time out. He then hulked out and struck out 14 Braves without allowing another run through seven innings. How dominant has he been? He has a 45.3 K% and his 21.7 SwStr% is higher than half the pitchers’ on this slate’s strikeout rates. A 2.16 DRA is his worst estimator by nearly half a run. Why not also give the best pitcher the best matchup? Omar Narvaez is the only batter in the projected Milwaukee lineup below a 24.5 K% vs RHP since 2020. Expect a perfect game with 24 strikeouts for deGrom in a 1-0 loss.

Carlos Rodon and Austin Nola are the only other two pitchers reaching $10K on both sites. Rodon has at least eight strikeouts in eight straight starts and 12 of 14 overall. The walk rate has climbed above 10% over his last five starts, which has contributed to him being unable to go beyond five innings in three of them after only failing to complete six in three of his first nine. His 2.37 ERA is below all of his estimators (82.4 LOB%, 9.1 HR/FB), the worst of which is still just a 3.15 DRA though. While the Twins have a 108 wRC+ and 16.5 HR/FB with just a 22.8 K% vs LHP, the Minnesota lineup has been dealing with injuries to most of their RH power in Buxton, Donaldson and Cruz. Rodon also has some weather concerns, as it’s the only game on the slate with a hint of Orange in the forecast currently.

Nola is exactly $10K on either site. His starts have had a lot more volatility or variance than you’d like or expect to see out of him. Just looking at his last five starts, he’s allowed multiple home runs three times with at least four runs allowed in each of the three, but no runs in the other two. He has strikeout totals of 11, 12, 1, 9, 7 and 2 over his last six starts. Nola has a 50% career ground ball rate coming into this year, but has only been above that mark twice in 17 starts this year and has been below 40% on 11 occasions. With a .331 BABIP, estimators are about a run below his 4.44 ERA, the worst of which is a 3.72 xERA. Nola makes an interesting leverage play today because of the newly found strikeout upside, but also because he’s in both a high upside, but very dangerous spot. It’s Wrigley, it’s hot and the wind is blowing out, but the Cubs have an 89 wRC+ and board high 26.8 K% vs RHP this season. Wind, heat, humidity…none of it matters if you’re not making contact.

Remaining pitchers hitting the $10K mark on FanDuel only including Chris Bassitt, Framber Valdez and Nathan Eovaldi. Bassitt’s velocity has been dropping and he had just a 7.4 SwStr% in June, but otherwise, all he does is throw quality starts. He’s failed to so only six times this season and has completed seven innings seven times. All estimators are above his 3.04 ERA (78.2 LOB%, 8.6 HR/FB), but all are below four. However, he’s in Houston and the Astros should be getting some bats back tonight. Over his last two starts, Eovaldi has allowed one run over 14.2 innings without a walk and six strikeouts in each. He’s ridden excellent control (4.7 BB%) and strong contact management (5.1% Barrels/BBE). Non-FIP estimators (4.5 HR/FB) are a bit above his 3.41 ERA with only his DRA (4.15) above four. He may not have the upside to justify his price tag on the road against the Angels (106 wRC+ vs RHP), which Statcast considers the most home friendly park for LHBs. The Angels have a 121 wRC+ and 18.9 HR/FB at home this year. Valdez issued five walks to Cleveland last time out, but still managed to complete seven innings for the fifth time in his last six starts and exceed a 70 GB% for the sixth time in seven starts overall. The sheer volume of work generally gets him to acceptable strikeout totals with just a 22.4 K%. The A’s have been merely league average vs LHP this year (100 wRC+) and four of nine batters in the projected lineup exceed a 26.5 K% vs LHP since 2020. Valdez may have the highest floor here, but again, deGrom is the easy non-ownership answer and Nola the high upside leverage play with Rodon another risky option due to weather concerns.

LH Value in Offense Implied for Five Runs

Bailey Ober has struck out nearly a quarter of the batters he’s faced (24.5%) through six starts (24.2 IP), but with just an 8.0 SwStr%. In fact, he’s been above 9% in just one start and has nearly as many home runs (four) and walks (four) allowed as strikeouts (five) over his last two starts. He’s carried excellent control with him from the minors (5.7 BB%), but that won’t be enough if the strikeout rate drops much below average and just 26.8% of his contact remains on the ground. In fact, batters from either side of the plate have blasted Ober for an ISO above .220 and LHBs currently have a wOBA and xwOBA above .400 against him with just 14.3% of their contact on the ground. That makes virtually any LHB in the Chicago lineup playable tonight, especially with Gavin Sheets (262 wRC+ vs RHP in just 19 PAs) still costing less than $3K on either site. Brian Goodwin (139 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP since 2020) may be another value play here at just $3.1K on DraftKings. Yasmani Grandal (111 wRC+, .213 ISO) and Yoan Moncada (139 wRC+, .264 ISO), expected to return tonight, are your top LH bats here. Incidentally, Ober has legitimately stifled RHBs (.250 wOBA, .254 xwOBA). The White Sox are one of eight offenses currently implied for at least five runs by oddsmakers tonight.

This Pitcher Serves Up a Career .362 wOBA to LHBs

Wily Peralta has thrown just 14 innings this year and since 2019 with a 3.21 ERA, but that’s due almost entirely to a .190 BABIP. He’s struck out just eight of 58 batters with 52.3% of his contact on the ground, but at a 92.3 mph EV. This is a spot where we should like LH Texas bats because batters from that side have a .362 wOBA against Peralta in his career. That’s also the side the red hot Joey Gallo (116 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since 2020), who has a 206 wRC+ over the last 30 days, and Nate Lowe (122 wRC+, .198 ISO) bat from. While the latter costs just $2.6K on FanDuel, you’ll need to pay up on DraftKings. However, a potential punt catcher might be Jonah Heim, who has just a 67 wRC+ vs RHP since last year, but the switch hitter is projected to hit in the middle of the lineup tonight and has a .307 wOBA against RHP since last year that’s 41 points higher than his actual mark. While that’s still only a league average mark, Heim costs $2.5K or less on either site and has a 119 wRC+ over the last month.

Finding Leverage in the Top Projected Offense

Tonight’s nine game slate is one of the more offensively oriented boards we’ve seen this year. With the wind blowing out at Wrigley, the Cubs are above six implied runs with seven more teams reaching five implied runs and three more above 4.8 runs. That’s 11 of 16 teams above 4.8 runs, but then a sizable gap to Detroit at 4.06 runs currently, though we have to remember that the Padres don’t currently have a set number without a confirmed starter for the Nationals yet (expected to be Jon Lester). With that said, the Cubs are probably the only team we have to play some ownership leverage games with. The wind is blowing out at Wrigley tonight and Matt Moore has allowed a .422 wOBA and .348 xwOBA to RHBs this year. Perhaps Anthony Rizzo could be one of those leverage bats as LHBs have just a .303 wOBA against Moore this year, but a .406 xwOBA and he has shown some reverse split tendencies in the past. Additionally, Moore has thrown just 12.1 innings since April and shouldn’t be expected to go too far in this game one way or another. Rizzo has a just a .115 ISO against same-handed pitching since 2020, but a 125 wRC+ and a .367 xwOBA that’s actually a few points above his real wOBA (.356), according to Statcast. Kris Bryant has just a 49 wRC+ over the last 30 days, but may still be one of the top bats on the board with a 189 wRC+ and .319 ISO against LHP since last year. Current ownership projections do have Bryant and Willson Contreras (115 wRC+, .195 ISO vs LHP since 2020) as the most popular bats on the board, around 30% each, but Rizzo has just the sixth highest Cubs’ projection at just 5%.

Poor Bullpen Backing Struggling Pitcher

Mike Minor is a pitcher players may wish to utilize tonight, facing a Cincinnati lineup that struggles against LHP and on the road in a power suppressing environment. However, Minor has also struggled mightily over his last two starts (14 runs in 10 innings with three strikeouts). With an implied run line of 4.81, we can reasonably justify exposure towards both sides of this matchup, especially considering that the Royals may have the worst bullpen on the board backing Minor tonight. Over the last 30 days, their 5.49 ERA and 5.21 FIP are worst on the slate and since last season, RHBs have a .322 wOBA, .330 xwOBA against Minor. The bats we want here are Jonathan India (133 wRC+ vs LHP) out of the leadoff spot, even if his xwOBA is 59 points lower than his actual results against southpaws, Nick Castellanos (127 wRC+, .244 ISO vs LHP since 2020), Tyler Stephenson (114 wRC+, .257 ISO) and Aristides Aquino (115 wRC+, .293 ISO). The latter two are $2.5K or less on FanDuel and all four exceed a 100 wRC+ over the last month.

Navigating Mid and Low Range High Upside Matchups

Potentially high upside matchups on tonight’s nine game slate go to Chase De Jong (vs Braves), Kolby Allard (vs Tigers), Matt Moore (at Cubs), Mike Minor (vs Reds), Tylor Megill (vs Brewers) and Wily Peralta (at Rangers). A couple of these are easy passes. Since April, Moore has allowed just three earned runs over 12.1 innings, but has struck out just seven of 49 batters over this span with a 7.0 SwStr%. ERA and estimators are all well above five. The Cubs have a 26.1 K% vs LHP, but the wind is blowing out at Wrigley tonight. Peralta has struck out just eight of 58 batters (though five of 20 Indians in his last start) with 52.3% of his contact on the ground, but at a 92.3 mph EV. The results (3.21) far outpace estimators around five, due to a .190 BABIP. The first four in the projected lineup for the Rangers all exceed a 27 K% vs LHP since 2020, but Peralta carries more risk than upside. With an 11.7 K-BB%, 32.2 GB% and 90.5 mph EV through six starts, De Jong has a 5.65 ERA that most estimators agree with even if only the 5.68 DRA is higher. Ironically, despite the contact profile, a 4.56 xERA is his most optimistic number. If you really need a cheap SP2 on DraftKings, he costs just $5.6K against a projected lineup that includes five batters above a 25 K% since last year (plus the pitcher’s spot) in a decent park, but this could easily go horribly for him.

Minor has allowed 14 runs over his last 10 innings. Sure, he’s been BABIP’d (.395), but has also struck out just three of his last 52 batters in Texas and Boston. Opponents have a 95+ Z-Contact% in each of these two starts, though no other patterns exist, as his pitch usage in each of the starts was vastly different. All estimators are above four for the season, but still well below his 5.33 ERA with a respectable 16.1 K-BB%, while stranding just 65.1% of runners. The positives in this matchup are that the Reds have an 84 wRC+ vs LHP and 12.0 HR/FB on the road, while a shift from Cincinnati to Kansas City is about as far south as you can go on the power spectrum concerning park factors for home runs. The projected lineup for the Reds includes four batters above a 25 K% vs LHP, but they do gain a DH tonight. Within $200 of $7.5K on either site, Minor may have some value, but recent performance certainly makes him more of a risk here.

Allard and Megill may be the most interesting names on the list. The latter has started two games for the Mets, both against the Braves, striking out 12 of 40 (10.2 SwStr%) with two home runs and four walks over 9.1 innings. Half of his 24 batted balls have been on the ground. An April scouting report by Fangraphs suggested a 35+ Future Value grade and questioned whether he’d ever be a useful major league pitcher, but did admit a velocity increase from 2019. His 20.0 K-BB% over 14.1 AAA innings is the same as it has been since being called up after previously dominating AA over 26 innings (33.7 K-BB%). The secondaries have been excellent in his two starts (slider 21 SwStr%, 57 GB% & changeup 28 SwStr%, 50 GB%). The Brewers have an 89 wRC+ and 25.4 K% vs RHP with everyone in the projected lineup exceeding a 21 K% vs RHP since 2020. There are a few concerns here though. First, the Milwaukee offense has been clicking recently (136 wRC+ last seven days). Second, Weather Edge suggests a potential boost to bats at City Field tonight (though that could change). Lastly, Megill isn’t as cheap as we’d probably expect to see him on DraftKings, but is below $7.5K.

In six starts since entering the rotation, Allard has a respectable 20.8 K% with just a 4.0 BB% and as many home runs surrendered as walks issued. The 3.66 ERA is about a half run below estimators over that span, due to a .236 BABIP, but nobody is going to complain if he turns into a capable fourth starter. Back of the rotation lefties have turned into front of the rotation pitchers against the Tigers this year (84 wRC+, 28.5 K%). Another factor in Allard’s favor is that Texas has been a fairly negative run environment with the roof closed. For $8K, Allard may be an option on either site.

Key Injuries in Lineups Facing Tonight's Top Pitchers Alter Matchup Strength

Brandon Woodruff is the most expensive pitcher on the slate and the only one above a 30% strikeout rate (31.1%). He is $1.8K more expensive than any other pitcher on FanDuel ($11.4) and exactly $1K less on DraftKings. Despite an 86.8 mph EV for the season, his last start against the Cubs was the first time in five starts he hadn’t allowed a home run with six of his nine surrendered on the season coming over that span. With a 24.8 K-BB% and 4.7% Barrels/BBE, a 3.11 SIERA is his worst estimator, even if they’re all well above his 1.87 ERA (.203 BABIP, 86.6 LOB%). The Mets have a 92 wRC+, 24.4 K% and 12.4 HR/FB against RHP and play in one of the more negative run environments in baseball. From those aspects, this looks like a great spot for Woodruff. However, the Mets’ lineup is now nearly back to full strength with McNeil, Conforto and Nimmo returning recently after long absences. This should be a much better lineup when healthy. Weather Edge also currently suggests a large enough boost to make Citi Field a positive run environment tonight (although that could change). While Woodruff is certainly one of the top three pitchers on the slate, he does have some competition from slightly lower priced arms and may not be the top value among higher priced arms.

Dylan Cease is $9.6K on DraftKings and $1.2K less on FanDuel, while Joe Musgrove is $9.6K on FanDuel, yet $900 cheaper on DraftKings. These are the two pitchers who have the potential to give Woodruff a run for the top spot tonight. Musgrove did not have an entirely smooth month of June with estimators north of four and a half with just a 23.1 K% over five starts last month. He also allowed five home runs with just a 37.7 GB% in June. For the season, he still has a 23.8 K-BB% with estimators healthily in the low threes, but the drop in strikeouts and ground balls, along with velocity might be worth watching. Another issue we have with him, especially at his higher price tag on FanDuel, is that Musgrove has only gone beyond five innings or completed six in seven of 15 starts. He did do this three times in a row though, until his last start. The matchup may be superior though. The Nationals have a 94 wRC+, 23.2 K% and 15 HR/FB vs RHP, which doesn’t sound enticing, but with Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber currently missing, it really lacks any imposing figures outside of Juan Soto, while Petco may be the most negative run environment on the slate.

With just the fourth highest price tag on FanDuel, Dylan Cease may be the top value on the entire slate. The Twins have a 102 wRC+, 22.7 K% and 15.5 HR/FB vs RHP, but like the Nationals, they’re currently missing key bats (Josh Donaldson, Byron Buxton). The projected lineup includes just two batters above a .180 ISO vs RHP since 2020 and three above a .335 wOBA. The three walks Cease issued to the these Twins last time out were his most in seven starts (6.9 BB%, 29.6 K%) and he’s done this with his velocity increasing as well. There’s been a small shift towards more curveballs (18.4%) over this run, but the real difference has been his ability to start plate appearances with a strike more often (59.7%). Estimators for the season are all now within one-quarter of a run of his 3.75 ERA. A quick peak at Statcast Park Factors and Weather Edge also currently tells us that the park in Minnesota may retain it’s negative run environment properties tonight. At a cost of $900 more than Musgrove on DraftKings, the two may be of equal value there, but both may be a better value than Woodruff on either site.

Too Good for the Price and Facing a Pitcher with a Massive Split

It’s curious that Brian Goodwin had taken so long to find major league work this season because he’s been quite a quality bat against RHP since last year (135 wRC+, .257 ISO) and has a 148 wRC+ over the last month in total. Casey Mize’s velocity, ground ball rate (50%) and strikeout rate (19.8%) have all been dropping. He’s at 88 innings and hasn’t thrown more than 110 since being drafted. Estimators range from a 4.25 xFIP to a 5.05 xERA, all well above his 3.46 ERA (82.6 LOB%). In addition, he has a pretty massive split with Statcast pushing his .369 wOBA against LHBs since last season up to a .404 xwOBA. The White Sox don’t have a lot of quality LHBs, but Yasmani Grandal (111 wRC+, .215 ISO) is another one and Adam Eaton (98 wRC+, .177 ISO) is cheap, though neither may equal the value on of Goodwin, who costs $3.3K or less on either site and may be one of the top DraftKings values on the board, should he find himself in the two spot again tonight.

Lefty on Lefty Violence For One of the Top Bats on the Board

Two below average pitchers at Coors elevates two below average offenses in the Cardinals and Rockies to the top of the board at 6.25 implied runs each, nearly a full run above any other offense, but sitting in third place on tonight’s board at 5.44 runs are the Angels. Some may still be unaware that Statcast Park Factors call their home the most power friendly park in the majors for left-handed batters with a three year home run factor of 135, just ahead of Cincinnati’s 133. Keegan Akin may think he’s finally getting a break leaving Baltimore for a trip out west, but that’s not the case at all. He has been lit up for 22 runs over his last 18 innings with five home runs (nine barrels) and a 92 mph EV. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Akin since last year. Shohei Ohtani (134 wRC+, .305 ISO vs LHP since 2020) may be the top overall bat on the board outside Coors tonight, which may be a bit of a surprise, facing a same-handed pitcher. He has an absurd 101.3 mph EV on balls not hit on the ground this year. From the right side, Max Stassi has even better numbers against southpaws (148 wRC+, .305 ISO), while your value bat may be Phil Gosselin (155 wRC+, .160 ISO), who has a 201 wRC+ over the last month overall and costs the minimum ($2K) on FanDuel.

Middle of the Board Pitching Values

Interestingly, there are several starting pitchers in the middle of tonight’s board, who may not have overly exciting matchups are incredible strikeout rates, but are just simply under-valued. This group includes two pitchers facing each other in a matchup of above average offenses in a negative run environment, a quality pitcher in a decent spot and a pitcher who’s estimators are much higher than his ERA in a great park.

Eduardo Rodriguez has a 27.4 K%, 5.6 BB% and has allowed just 7.5% Barrels/BBE. Somehow, that’s resulted in a 5.83 ERA. The culprits are a .374 BABIP and 62.4 LOB%. A 4.40 DRA is his only estimator within even two runs of his ERA. Actual results have kept his daily fantasy cost depressed. He costs exactly $7.4K on either site and while the Athletics have a 102 wRC+ vs LHP, Oakland is one of the more negative run environments in the league, while the A’s have just a 56 wRC+ and 8.3 HR/FB over the last seven days. Opposing ERod is Frankie Montas, who was lit up for eight runs by Texas two starts back, but has otherwise pitched well this season with a 24 K% (17.7 K-BB%). The contact profile is a bit of a problem (39.3 GB%, 90.4 mph EV, 10.6% Barrels/BBE), which has resulted in a 4.42 xERA that’s closes to his actual 4.72 ERA. Yet, he too seems under-valued within $100 of $8K on either site. The Boston offense is the opposite of Oakland’s with a 159 wRC+ and 17 K% over the last week, but they get a significant park downgrade, going from Fenway to Oakland and do have a 24.2 K% vs RHP, facing a pitcher who has seven quality starts, despite the elevated ERA.

Jordan Montgomery’s 4.06 ERA is very closely linked to his SIERA (4.03) and xERA (3.93). That’s simply a somewhat average pitcher, but Statcast tells us that Yankee Stadium is a slightly negative run environment and the weather is not expected to change that tonight. While the Mets do add a DH tonight, they still have just a 91 wRC+ and 25.2 K% vs LHP. An average pitcher in a decent spot should carry an above average price tag, yet Montgomery costs less than $7.5K on either site.

Kyle Gibson struck out a season high 10 Royals over seven shutout innings (exacting some revenge for the whooping they laid on him Opening Day), driving his strikeout rate above 20% (20.9%) and his ERA down to exactly 2.00. He’s not that good (2.40 ERA, 85.1 LOB%), but has generated more than half his contact on the ground (51.8%) with just 4.4% Barrels/BBE. His xERA and FIP run in the lower threes, while non-contact including ones are around four. Yet, he’s not being priced like a two ERA pitcher. He’s within $400 of $8K in a strong, if not great, spot in Seattle. It’s another very negative run environment and while the projected lineup now only includes one batter above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2020, the offense still lacks quality bats and has just an 86 wRC+ at home and 91 wRC+ vs RHP. Also note that Logan Gilbert has been impressive on the other side of this matchup and is just $6.6K on DraftKings. He has productively struck out 26.2% of the batters he’s faced with a 5.4 BB% through eight starts, which makes up for a 32.3 GB% and 91.2 mph EV (10.1% Barrels/BBE). Estimators range from a 3.71 FIP to a 4.48 DRA and while his last start was suspended by rain after two innings, the Mariners let him hit 100 pitches in two of his previous three. The Rangers have a few hot bats, but just a 91 wRC+ and 24.8 K% vs RHP this year.

Four Home Runs and a .572 xwOBA Against Tonight's Pitcher

There’s success against a pitcher and then there’s ownage and while a lot of batter vs pitcher matchup numbers can be written off as small samples, there are some numbers you just can’t ignore and that’s what we see when we look at the success Salvador Perez has had against J.A. Happ in his career. Over 23 PAs, Perez has homered four times and added a double with a 95.2 mph EV on 20 batted balls, which works out to a ridiculous .572 xwOBA. If you filter Baseball Savant’s Daily Matchups page for at least 15 PAs and sort by xwOBA, you’ll also find Carlos Santana’s .489 xwOBA against Happ in 25 PAs third best on that board. He has a home run and a double with a 91.1 mph EV on 20 batted balls as well. RHBs as a whole have hammered Happ for a .353 wOBA (.331 xwOBA) since last season and Happ is not the only LHP that Perez has menaced this season, as his 170 wRC+ and .377 ISO against them will attest to. The Royals are one of seven offenses above five implied runs tonight (5.15) and while Happ is the main reason why, the Minnesota bullpen hasn’t provided much relief either (5.45 ERA, 4.66 FIP last 30 days). Incidentally, also near the top of that Daily Matchups leaderboard, you’ll find Justin Turner (.531 xwOBA, three home runs, 16 PAs) and Max Muncy (.404 xwOBA, one home run, 16 PAs) against Max Scherzer, though it might be a riskier proposition to bet on those numbers holding up. However, it’s certainly surprising to see.

Weak Pen Behind Recovering Starter Increase This Strong Lineup's Outlook

While Zac Gallen isn’t usually a pitcher daily fantasy players would be advised to attack, there could be some merit in doing so tonight. Gallen has only been sharp in one of his three starts since returning from the IL and his velocity dropped off last time out. A 10.3 SwStr% is uncharacteristic, though it’s not showing up in his 27.2 K%, while he’s walked 10.7% of the batters he’s faced. The Diamondbacks have limited him to fewer than 85 pitches in three starts back and though the pitch count has increased with each start, they have absolutely no reason to push him in a go nowhere season. That projects the Arizona bullpen for a heavy workload on Friday night and by ERA (5.93) and xFIP (5.34) they’ve been the worst bullpen in baseball over the last 30 days. Since last season, LHBs have a .311 wOBA and .320 xwOBA against Gallen, according to Statcast. Each of the five LHBs in the projected lineup for the Giants exceed a 115 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP since 2020 and none, including Mike Yastrzemski (151 wRC+, .285 ISO) cost more than $3K on FanDuel. On the middle of the board at 4.6 implied runs on a 14 game slate, the Giants should be an afterthought for most daily fantasy players. The team website also informs us that the roof will be closed in Arizona tonight and Statcast Park Factors actually suggest that makes it a more positive run scoring environment since the humidor was installed.