DFS Alerts

Weather, Injury and Declining Velocity Concerns for Top Pitchers in Top Matchups

While Lance Lynn and Pablo Lopez own two of the higher upside spots on the slate, we can find some enormous opposing strikeout rates facing Alek Manoah (vs Rays), J.T. Brubaker (vs Brewers) and Sonny Gray (vs Cubs). All of Manoah’s seven home runs have come in two starts (Marlins & Orioles), though the 26.8 K% (12.8 SwStr%) has been otherwise impressive. He does have a 39 GB% and 10.4% Barrels/BBE overall, so the contact profile could become a concern, but it’s still a small sample and he seems to be transitioning well to the majors. He worked up to a season high 97 pitches last time out too. A peak at the projected lineup for Tampa Bay illustrates seven batters above a 27 K% vs RHP since 2020. That is a mind-blowing number, though not the only one, as we’ll soon see. Unfortunately, there’s significant concern for the weather in this spot with Kevin currently labeling the game Orange/Yellow and noting “a mess of scattered showers and storms in the general area”. Should the outlook improve, Manoah costs less than $8K.

Brubaker’s velocity has been steadily dropping and even with nine strikeouts two starts back, he had just a 21.6 K% in June. The caveat is that he’s been above a 12.5 SwStr% in three straight anyway. His 3.82 nearly perfectly matches up with a 3.80 SIERA & xFIP. The Brewers have been hot (146 wRC+, 13.2 K%, 19.1 HR/FB last seven days), but still have just an 87 wRC+ and 25.5 K% vs RHP this year. PlateIQ informs us that their projected lineup includes five batters (not including the pitcher’s spot) with a 25.5 K% or higher against RHP since last year. You wouldn’t be wrong to be a bit concerned about Brubaker’s workload possibly contributing to the velocity loss for a pitcher who hasn’t thrown more than 50 innings since 2018 prior to this year, but he’s still getting swings and misses and is $7K or less on either site, potentially the top value on the board.

Sonny Gray’s 30.1 K% is behind just Max Scherzer and Luis Patino on tonight’s board and the Cubs have a 90 wRC+ with a 26.7 K% vs RHP. Six of eight in the projected lineup for Chicago exceed a 24 K% vs RHP since 2020 and both Bryant and Rizzo have missed games this week. There’s a chance Gray could be facing a compromised lineup. This is all good news for him. The problem is that he makes his first start since June 8th. He struck out just four of 13 in his lone rehab start and could be limited here. Before the injury, he had the lowest ground ball rate of his career (44.2%) by over five points, yet the contact profile remained strong (87.2 mph EV, 6.2% Barrels/BBE). Non-FIP estimators are all within a quarter of a run of his 3.42 ERA. At $7.5K or less he may have been one of the top values on the slate with a full workload and may still be useable here with a pitch count of 75-80, which could get him through five innings with some efficiency. Of course, the park is one of the most power friendly in baseball though.

Top Arm in One of the Toughest Spots

One game short of a full slate and Max Scherzer is the only one of 28 pitchers who reaches $10K on both sites, while Lance Lynn costs exactly $10K on FanDuel. Scherzer has the top strikeout (35.4%) and swinging strike rate on the board (16.7%). He has just a 31.4 GB% with 12 home runs surrendered, but hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start since April. His worst estimator is a 3.22 xFIP. The only other pitchers above a 30 K% on the slate have been in the minors (Luis Patino) or on the IL (Sonny Gray) for the majority of, if not all of June. Scherzer is the top overall arm on the slate and hardly a mistake, though may not be one of the better value. The problem Scherzer runs into tonight is the Dodgers (117 wRC+, 22 K%, 14.1 HR/FB vs RHP) in a positive run environment. If that’s going to weaken ownership, then he becomes a great leverage play.

Lynn has a 32.5 K% over his last six starts with just eight walks, but has only hit 100 pitches once in that span. The quality of the work seems to be improving, though he’s not been handling the same workload as in years past, perhaps due to time on the IL earlier in the year or the fact that the White Sox have a quality bullpen. That said, he has one of the top matchups on the board in Detroit (92 wRC+, 26.3 K% vs RHP) and is probably an equal or better value than Scherzer.

Lance McCullers Jr. and Pablo Lopez are the additional pitchers on the slate costing more than $9K on both sites. McCullers has a 26.2 K% and 53.9 GB%, which is a great start to a pitching profile, but walks are up significantly (12.5%), as is the average exit velocity (92 mph), though the high ground ball rate has kept the barrels (7.2%) in check. In fact, a 3.69 xERA is his best estimator (a 4.32 SIERA is his worst). All are well above his 2.94 ERA (.236 BABIP, 80.4 LOB%). Cleveland has just an 87 wRC+ vs RHP, but doesn’t strike out a ton (22.8%). McCullers seems like the riskiest and worst value of the four highest priced pitchers, but Lopez may be the best. His velocity has been up over his last two starts (16 Ks – 46 BF – 2 R – 13 IP). He now has a 31.8 K% over his last five starts and an 86.3 mph EV for the year with nearly half his contact (48.5%) on the ground. Atlanta is one of the more positive run environments in the league and the Braves do have a 102 wRC+ and 15.7 HR/FB vs RHP. Daily fantasy players may remember a particular nightmare start Lopez had in this park last year, as well as another troublesome one earlier this year, but he also had a very strong start in Atlanta in between those two efforts, while the Braves also have a 25.3 K% vs RHP. Five of eight batters in the projected lineup exceed a 25 K% vs RHP since last season. Lynn may have the highest floor in his matchup, but Lopez may have the highest point per dollar upside of the group.

Matchup & Environmental Boosts Make Up for Marginal Bats

Coors may be off the board, but with temperatures soaring around the country, we still see three teams above six implied runs on tonight’s slate. It doesn’t take a heck of a lot of analysis to tell players to load up on a powerful and predominantly RH Toronto lineup against Justus Sheffield, who has allowed multiple homers in four straight starts and has just an 8.0 K-BB% this year. That’s a 94.9 mph EV and 36.4 HR/FB with 8.5% of the batters he’s faced homering in those four starts. Also, Matt Harvey doesn’t have an estimator below 4.81 and pitches in a rare weather protected environment against Houston tonight. You probably don’t need help figuring out which Boston bats to roster against Mike Minor at Fenway either, though that’s more of a park and weather effect because Minor actually has an impressive 17.5 K-BB% this year. None the less, Statcast tells us that RHBs have a .320 wOBA and .329 xwOBA against him since last year and Hunter Renfroe (161 wRC+, .310 ISO vs LHP since 2020) might be one of the top value plays on the board in one of the top projected lineup.

However, a 4.86 implied run line places the Royals more towards the middle of the board tonight in a great spot against Martin Perez. With a 19.3 K% and the rest of his profile about average, he has estimators that range from a 4.33 FIP (11.1 HR/FB) to a 5.98 DRA, all fairly well above his 4.09 ERA (five of 37 runs have been unearned). Since last season, RHBs have a .329 wOBA, but .351 xwOBA against Perez, according to Statcast. Salvador Perez (159 wRC+ .357 ISO), Carlos Santana (123 wRC+, .182 ISO) and Whit Merrifield (113 wRC+) are the only good hitters in the lineup against LHP since last year, but the rest of the lineup is cheap with some matchup and environmental health. Hanser Alberto (99 wRC+) could be a top value tonight for less than $3K on either site, as he’s currently projected to bat fifth. Essentially anyone who finds themselves in one of those top five or six spots here should be a decent value with only Jorge Soler above $3K on either site among those not mentioned.

Top Punt Value Play

Without much in the way of viable cheap arms tonight and five of 18 teams above five implied runs, players are going to have to find somewhere to save money and that might work out to a one off punt behind the plate. If that’s the situation you find yourself in, Luis Torrens may be the player you’re looking for. Steven Matz spent two and a half weeks on the COVID list and will likely be limited in his first start back. Since last season, RHBs have a .381 wOBA against him too, putting just 38.2% of their contact on the ground. Torrens costs less than $3K on either site and could be the top DK punt value play for just $2.3K. That’s because he not only has a .275 ISO vs LHP since last season, but since being recalled from the minors this month, he has been on fire with a 219 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. The Mariners have just a 3.96 implied run line that’s fourth from the bottom, so we don’t want to go too nuts with this matchup, but playing Torrens behind the plate opens up many more possibilities in your daily fantasy lineups.

Terrible Pen and Defense Backing Rookie Starter

After six starts, Vladimir Gutierrez has just a 7.4 K-BB% with a 3.97 ERA well below all of his estimators (.242 BABIP, 79.5 LOB%). Ironically, a 4.66 xERA is his best estimator, despite 10.6% Barrels/BBE. Behind Gutierrez is one of the worst bullpens (5.66 ERA, 5.32 FIP, 4.67 xFIP last 30 days) and defenses (-19 Runs Prevented) in baseball in perhaps the most hitter and power friendly parks in the league. The takeaway here is that you want heavy exposure to San Diego bats. Surprisingly, a 5.78 implied run line only places them fourth on an 18 team board, but each of the first seven batters in the projected lineup exceeds a 105 wRC+ vs RHP since 2020 with Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth all above a 130 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP since last season and exceeding a 130 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. Tommy Pham (187 wRC+ last 30 days) may be one of the top values on the FanDuel board for $3K. While Gutierrez has a 70 point reverse split by wOBA so far (.277/.348), Statcast drives LHBs up over 40 points to close the gap to a .321 xwOBA for LHBs and .351 wOBA for RHBs. The biggest concern here, as it is in several spots on this slate is weather. Kevin has marked seven of nine games on this slate Yellow with this being one of two with a hint of Orange. Make sure to check back in for his updated forecast this afternoon.

Ironically, the only two pitchers exceeding a 30 K% tonight are not among the highest priced arms. Shohei Ohtani (33.1 K%) is only fourth most expensive on FanDuel and less than $9K on DraftKings, while Joe Musgrove (30.8 K%) is within $300 of $9K on either site. The simple reasons are matchups and environments. While Statcast actually suggests Yankee Stadium is a negative run environment, the temperature is expected to be in the mid-90s with a 10 mph wind out to center. Weather Edge currently gives this park a home run boost, but not an overall run environment one. In other words, Ohtani may still be pitching in a negative run environment tonight and while many may still be afraid of opposing the Yankee lineup at home, they’ve been merely average there (99 wRC+) and vs RHP (99 wRC+). Four of the first five batters in the projected lineup exceed a 25 K% vs RHP since last season. Walking just five of his last 94 batters, Ohtani has dropped his walk rate to 12.5%, which is still too high, but more manageable. With fewer walks, he’s now completed six innings in five of his last seven, while striking out one-third of the batters he’s faced this year. His 2.58 ERA is still about a run below most estimators (84.1 mph EV), though the estimators are below three in June. Ohtani is playable in this spot.
Not long ago, a 25.1 K-BB% with just 6.4% Barrels/BBE probably would have produced strong enough stats to be a leading Cy Young contender, but this year, it makes Musgrove merely very good. His 2.22 ERA is more than a half run below all estimators (.222 BABIP), though none are above 3.10 (xFIP). One qualm daily fantasy players might have is that he’s only gone beyond five innings in half his starts. The big problem here though, is the tough matchup in Cincinnati. It’s one of the most positive run environments and power friendly parks in baseball. The Reds have a 118 wRC+ and 19.4 HR/FB there. They have a 110 wRC+, 15.7 HR/FB and 22.6 K% vs RHP. The 50/50 proposition of Musgrove going deep in this game adds risk, but the cost is cheap enough that the upside may be worth the gamble in GPPs.
Should you be looking for a bottom half of the board candidate to pair with your more expensive arm on DraftKings, Bailey Ober may be the most interesting candidate, though he certainly carries risk as well. Through five starts, Ober has impressively struck out 25.6% of the batters he’s faced, but with just a 7.8 SwStr% and just 28.3% of his contact on the ground. On a positive note, he’s walked just four of 90 batters, allowing as many home runs. Estimators hovering around four would rise with a decline in strikeouts. The White Sox have a 101 wRC+, but just an 11.1 HR/FB vs RHP. Four of nine batters in the projected lineup are above a 27 K% vs RHP since 2020 and none are below 20%. The park is also one of the few that doesn’t project for a run scoring or home run boost according to Weather Edge (though that could change with the forecast). Ober costs just $5.7K on DraftKings.

The Most Expensive Pitchers May Actually Be Some of Your Best Values

Aaron Nola is the only pitcher to exceed $10K on both sites and actually reaches $11K on FanDuel for his home matchup against the Marlins. The perfect example of variance in baseball is his last two starts. After striking out just one of the Giants he faced two starts back, he tied Tom Seaver’s record for consecutive strikeouts with 10, totaling 12 against the Mets in his last start. Prior to that he’s struck out nine, seven and two. With a .316 BABIP, his 3.97 ERA is about a half run higher than most estimators. Overall, it’s hard to complain about a 22.5 K-BB%, but his 41.1 GB% is a career low in a tough park. The Marlins have an 89 wRC+, 25.4 K% and 11.1 HR/FB vs RHP. Working against him is a band box of a park where it’s forecast to be in the mid-90’s tonight with the wind blowing out nearly 10 mph to right-center. It’s also one of many spots with delay potential. However, Nola is scheduled to see a potentially pitcher friendly umpire behind the plate and may be the top overall arm tonight. He may even be the top value on DraftKings at the second most expensive price tag ($10.2K).

The guy who may be most likely to challenge Nola’s top spot is Luis Garcia, who is the only other $10K arm on FanDuel, but misses by $100 on DraftKings. His 2.83 ERA is well below non-contact including estimators, though not too far below his FIP (3.51) and xERA (3.22). You actually wonder how he has a 4.08 xFIP and 4.11 DRA with a 19.7 K-BB% though. The Orioles have an 84 wRC+, 24.8 K% and 11.3 HR/FB vs RHP and Garcia at least has the comfort of a neutral run environment in Houston, should the roof be closed.

The only other pitcher to reach $10K on either site is the most expensive DraftKings arm, Chris Bassitt ($10.5K), who has turned himself into a very solid, reliable pitcher. He’s struck out exactly a quarter of the batters he’s faced this year and has produced a quality start in 10 of 16 tries. His 3.25 ERA nearly matches a 3.24 xERA with a 3.95 DRA his worst estimator. In terms of workload, he’s the only guy on the board averaging more than six innings per start this year, which gives him more value on FanDuel ($9.8K). The Rangers have a 91 wRC+ and 25 K% vs RHP, while Bassitt has the biggest park advantage of the three tonight.

The only other pitcher to exceed $9.5K on either site tonight is Dylan Cease ($9.7K on DraftKings) and before you immediately bypass him in a somewhat difficult matchup against the Twins (103 wRC+, 15.4 HR/FB vs RHP), realize that while sustaining a 29.4 K% (29.2% for the season), Cease has dropped his walk rate to 5.9% over his last six starts. Unfortunately, a .346 BABIP and 66.8 LOB% over that span have driven his ERA up to 4.75 without any other negative changes contact profile. For the season, his worst estimator is now a 4.00 DRA. If you take a look at Weather Edge, the most negative run effect is currently for this park. If Cease maintains his recent walk rate, he might be one of the top values on the board tonight, specifically on FanDuel ($8.2K).

Top Power Park Could Offer Some of the Top Bats on the Board

Coors may be wasted on the Pirates tonight, but a warm day in Cincinnati could come very close to a similar environment. In fact, Statcast park factors give RHBs the highest home run factor and LHBs the second highest home run factor in baseball over a three year span. Considering that RHBs have a .398 wOBA and .422 xwOBA against Tony Santillan through three starts, RH Padres may be some of the top bats on the board. Santillan struck out 34.4% in 32.1 AAA innings and now 16 of 64 through three major league starts, but with just a 10.6 SwStr%, 12.5 BB%, 28.6 GB%, 92.5 mph EV and 13.5% Barrels/BBE. You can see how that can get ugly quickly in Cincinnati, especially against the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr. (182 wRC+, .372 ISO vs RHP since 2020), Manny Machado (131 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Tommy Pham (170 wRC+ last 30 days overall). Dropping a bit deeper in the lineup, you may have one of the top FanDuel values in Wil Myers (127 wRC+, .232 ISO) for just $2.5K. Looking at these numbers, you start to wonder if oddsmakers might actually be a bit light on the Padres at 5.46 implied runs, just the sixth highest total on the board.

A Top Strikeout Rate is Too Affordable

Lucas Giolito doesn’t have a great matchup tonight. The Twins have a 103 wRC+, 23 K% and 15.5 HR/FB vs RHP, but he may still be one of the top values on the board, especially on DraftKings, because he’s much too cheap ($9.8K FD, $8.7K DK). Giolito’s 35.2 K% and 17 SwStr% over the last month are both top two on the slate. He also has just an 86.8 mph EV over that span, though he’s still allowed eight home runs because just a quarter of his contact (25.4%) has been on the ground. Most non-FIP estimators (18.1 HR/FB) this year are below his 3.80 ERA (3.42 SIERA, 3.34 xERA) by nearly half a run. Throwing predominantly changeups next to his fastball, Giolito has acquired a reverse split, but RHBs still only have around a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year, while the Twins only have two RH power bats of concern projected in tonight’s lineup (Josh Donaldson & Nelson Cruz). LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA below .275 against Giolito since 2020. With a strikeout rate above 30% and 15.7 SwStr%, Giolito is just too good to be so affordable. DraftKings players can pair he and Gausman for a reasonable $18.3K.

FIP & xFIP Above Six Over Eight Start Span

Nobody could blame players for looking at Cleveland’s 89 wRC+ vs RHP and moving onto the next lineup, but there are several factors in their favor tonight, including positive weather conditions and Jose Urena on the mound for the Tigers. Urena has walked more (16) than he’s struck out (14) over his last eight starts and has allowed almost as many barrels (12) over that span. He has a 6.36 FIP and 6.39 xFIP over this stretch with an actual ERA above eight. For the season, he doesn’t have a single non-FIP estimator below five. No wonder one of the worst offenses has one of the top implied run lines on the board (5.57). Jose Ramirez (132 wRC+, .278 ISO vs RHP since 2020), Eddie Rosario (108 wRC+, .209 ISO) and Bobby Bradley (123 wRC+, .292 ISO) are the obvious names against a pitcher who has allowed LHBs nearly a .400 wOBA and xwOBA since last year, but a look at Baseball Savant’s Daily Matchups page also shows that the two names at the top of the order have had some past success against Urena from their NL East days. Cesar Hernandez (95 wRC+, .121 ISO) only has 60 career home runs and three of them have come against Urena in 39 PAs. He’s added a triple too. Amed Rosario (124 wRC+ last 30 days) hasn’t homered in 17 PAs against Urena, but does have two doubles with a .453 xwOBA and 92.4 mph EV. It’s not the largest sample in the world, but enough to include him in a top five lineup stack for Cleveland tonight.

LH Fly Ball Pitcher Facing Hot Weather Concerns Plus Entirely RH Lineup

The St Louis Cardinals had a joyous time against the Arizona bullpen last night, turning a tie game late into a six run victory and why shouldn’t they? The Diamondbacks relief corps is giving them no relief with a 5.91 ERA, 4.66 SIERA and 5.19 xFIP over the last 30 days, all worst in the majors. While St Louis is generally a power suppressing park during the cooler months of the season, that changes when the temperature heats up, as the ball starts to carry more and Weather Edge suggests that could be the case tonight, in which case, an extreme fly ball pitcher like Caleb Smith could be in trouble. Just as importantly, the Cardinals have the ability to generate an entirely RH lineup that is much better against LHP. The players who get the biggest boosts against southpaws are Yadier Molina (158 wRC+, .328 ISO since last year) and Tommy Edman (151 wRC+, .228 ISO), though Paul Goldschmidt (126 wRC+, .128 ISO), Nolan Arenado (100 wRC+, .196 ISO), Tyler O’Neill (70 wRC+, .136 ISO) and Dylan Carlson (123 wRC+, .108 ISO) have to have more power than they’ve shown so far against lefties. Carlson may be a top value on FanDuel for just $2.6K, considering that Statcast boosts Smith’s .290 wOBA against RHBs since 2020 to a .335 xwOBA. Smith has only generated 28.5% of his contact on the ground against RHBs since last year and with just an 8.0 SwStr% in five June starts, there might be quite a bit of elevated contact in St Louis. At 4.95 implied runs, the Cardinals are just inside the top third of the board.

One Lineup Projects Six Batters Above a 27 K% vs RHP Since 2020

High upside spots not belonging to $10K pitchers include Chase De Jong (at Rockies), James Kaprielian (vs Rangers), Jean Carlos Mejia (vs Tigers), Joe Ross (vs Rays), Kenta Maeda (vs White Sox), Tylor Megill (vs Braves), Vince Velasquez (vs Marlins) and Zach Davies (vs Brewers). We can eliminate several of those pitchers immediately. De Jong has allowed five home runs in five starts with a 10.5 BB%, 25.7 GB% and 91 mph EV. He is not a candidate at Coors. Mejia has a 19.5 K% and 7.4 SwStr% over his five June starts with estimators around four and a .367 xwOBA this month. He’s also unlikely to pitch deep into the game. Velasquez has as many runs allowed as strikeouts over his last five starts (19 each). With a 13.3 BB%, 35.8 GB%, 90.6 mph EV and 10.7% Barrels/BBE accompanying a dropping strikeout rate, he no longer has a single estimator below four and a half. We probably don’t want that profile in that park right now. Davies has just a 2.3 K-BB% on the season with a 4.60 FIP (7.8 HR/FB) his only estimators below five. So, who’s left?

Megill was rushed to the majors when every one of the Met starters went on the IL at the same time. (Just a small exaggeration.) The 25 year-old is not an extremely well-regarded prospect, but did strike out 17 of 60 at AAA this year after striking out 42 of 104 at AA, so maybe there’s something that was missed in his development last year. He went through the Atlanta order twice in his debut, striking out four with just a 6.5 SwStr%, but 58.3 GB%. This is also a significant park downgrade for him. The Braves do strike out a quarter of the time at home and vs RHP though and Megill does cost just $4.9K on DraftKIngs. Velocity was up a bit in Kenta Maeda’s second start back from the IL, though results continue to be marginal. The only positive is a 6.5 BB%. While the 4.85 ERA could be partially blamed on a .325 BABIP and 20.4 HR/FB with 11 of 13 barrels (8.1%) leaving the yard, he doesn’t have an estimators below four this year. The caveat here is that if he’s healthy, he’s too cheap ($7K). Five of nine batters projected for the White Sox exceed a 27 K% vs RHP since 2020.

Kaprielian and Ross may be the top two middle of the board guys in great spots. Kaprielian has a 25.7 K% and 2.86 ERA through eight starts. A 10.6 BB% and 92.4 mph EV both leave something to be desired, but if he’s only going to generate 35.7% of his contact on the ground, he is calling the right park home. A 3.79 xERA is his best estimator. Five of nine projected Rangers exceed a 27 K% vs RHP. Ross has allowed four or more earned runs in four of his 14 starts, but two runs or fewer in the other 10. An encouraging sign is a 27 K% and 12.3 SwStr% over his last five starts with just an 86.6 mph EV. His 4.12 ERA is within one-third of a run of all his non-FIP estimators. The Rays lose the DH in Washington, while six of the eight projected batters exceed a 27 K% vs RHP. Ross hast thrown at least seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts twice this month and he has a great shot at repeating at least the strikeout portion of those performances here.

Top Arm May Be Under-Valued Despite Tough Matchup

One pitcher, Brandon Woodruff, reaches the $11K mark on both sites, while two more, Robbie Ray and Walker Buehler, hit the $10K price point. Kevin Gausman is above $10K on FanDuel only. Woodruff costs at least $500 more than any other pitcher on either site and at that price, it’s no surprise that he’s a strong candidate for tonight’s top performance. He’s completed seven innings in six of his last eight starts. Woodruff’s 31 K% is tied for the top mark on the board and his 3.03 SIERA is the only estimator above three. The Cubs have a 91 wRC+ and 25.6 K% vs RHP. Paying up for Woodruff may not give you the best value for your daily fantasy dollar, but is unlikely to be much of a mistake. In other words, if there were no price tags, Woodruff should be one of your top two choices.

Robbie Ray is the second most expensive arm on either site and could be a slightly better value in an even better spot against the Mariners (88 wRC+, 27.5 K% vs LHP). His 31 K% (15.4 SwStr%) ties Brandon Woodruff atop the slate tonight. If he could only do something about that contact profile (44 GB%, 91.7 mph EV, 11.1% Barrels/BBE, 22.5 HR/FB, 4.13 xERA), he’d be a Cy Young contender this year. Non-contact including estimators are all below four. Buehler has competed at least six innings in every start this year. He’s done this with a perfectly average contact profile and a 19.6 K-BB%. That’s a good number two on a championship contender, but maybe a step back from what the Dodgers expected Buehler to be at this point. He does have a 2.51 ERA, but that’s exactly a run below his best estimator, a 3.51 xERA, due to a .227 BABIP and 86.7 LOB%. The Giants do have a 25.9 K% vs RHP, but also a 112 wRC+ and 15.8 HR/FB. Buehler probably has more value on FanDuel, not only due to the lower cost, but the quality start potential.

Buehler’s opponent may be the top high priced value on the board. It’s not often we can say that about a pitcher facing the Dodgers (118 wRC+, 22.1 K% vs RHP), but Gausman has been so good that he may be underpriced in this spot. He has allowed more than two runs just once and has an 18.8 SwStr% over his last five starts. His 16.3 SwStr% for the season (30.8 K%) leads the slate and while a 1.96 ERA is well below all of his estimators, the worst of them is a 3.08 SIERA. Gausman runs right behind Woodruff in SIERA, xFIP, DRA and xERA as the top two on the board for each estimator. He does have the tougher matchup, but costs much less. Gausman could be a great leverage play if players are leaning to heavily towards the other high priced arms, due to concern about his matchup.

Cheap, Red Hot Potential Leadoff Bat

One spot where players can justify exposure to both sides of a particular matchup is in Cleveland, where Eli Morgan ($6.2K on DK) and his increasing strikeout rate with each start faces a Detroit team that whiffs a ton. However, when batters have made contact with Morgan’s offerings, they’ve hit four home runs (23.5 HR/FB) on five barrels (13.9%). He has just a 17.6 GB% and 91.3 mph EV. The Tigers have just a 4.22 implied run line that’s closer to the bottom of the board than the top, but if Akil Baddoo (159 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP) is in the leadoff spot again tonight, he could be one of the top values on the board. The Rule 5 draftee has a 161 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall and costs $3K or less on either site. Robbie Grossman (107 wRC+, .186 ISO), who has slid down to third when Baddoo has led off, costs just a few hundred more. Despite the increasing strikeouts, the quality of contact has been such that batters from either side of the plate exceed a .400 wOBA against Morgan in his three starts.

Marginal Implied Run Line, But Potential Top Bats

The Angels find themselves merely at the center of the board with 4.48 implied runs, but considering the potential weather boost to Yankee Stadium bats and Michael King’s issues with LHBs (.364 wOBA, .368 xwOBA, according to Statcast), Shohei Ohtani (140 wRC+, .311 ISO vs RHP since 2020) and Jared Walsh (186 wRC+, .341 ISO) may be two of the top overall bats on the board tonight. Ohtani has a sparkling 219 wRC+ over the last 30 days as well. These two left-handed sluggers are somewhat expensive though, so players should supplement with some cheaper RH bats, who have also performed well enough against King (.318 wOBA, .328 xwOBA). Taylor Ward (114 wRC+, .201 ISO) costs exactly $2.6K on either site, while Max Stassi (138 wRC+, .171 ISO) costs less than $3.5K.