DFS Alerts

Smash Spot Against Pitcher with Declining Velocity & K%

Dylan Bundy’s velocity and strikeout rate have been dropping steadily and there’s been speculation about an injury or other issues. He has just a 15.5 K% (7.0 K-BB%) over his last seven starts with a 92 mph EV. Nine of his 10 Barrels (10.4%) leaving the yard over that span (25.7 HR/FB) seems a bit unfortunate, but there’s something going on here and it’s not good. He has a 5.37 xFIP over this span, which is still just half his ERA (10.21). While it almost seems like he’s wearing a Baltimore uniform again as he returns to an AL East park, there are at least a couple of Yankee sluggers who might be happy to see him. A 5.52 implied run line places the Yankees just third highest on the board tonight, but Aaron Judge (138 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP since 2020) and Gary Sanchez (185 wRC+ last 30 days) could help them exceed those numbers in 20 PAs against Bundy, Judge has homered three times with a .478 xwOBA, while Sanchez has homered twice with a double in 19 PAs (.403 xwOBA). The value play in this lineup would be Luke Voit (144 wRC+, .297 ISO vs RHP since 2020), who costs just $2.6K on FanDuel. Yankee Stadium is also one of several parks that could potentially experience a weather aided offensive boost tonight, according to Weather Edge.

Struggling Bullpens Could Be Heavily Worked Tonight

There are a lot of unknowns on today’s main slate, which includes nine games, but we can probably be confident that bullpens will be more heavily involved than usual. Only half of tonight’s 18 starters are averaging at least five innings per start. And among the nine averaging more than five innings per start, Matt Manning has made just two starts and Danny Duffy has faced just 12 batters over two outings since returning from the IL. So really, there are only seven starters we can expect to even qualify for a win tonight, not taking into account the quality of their actual performance. That leaves several bullpens players should feel comfortable attacking tonight and it starts with an Arizona pen with a 5.45 ERA, 5.06 FIP and 5.18 xFIP over the last 30 days with Jake Faria getting the start. His last major league start came in 2018 for the Rays. He’s struck out five of 17 batters faced in relief, but with just a 5.3 SwStr%. He was starting at AAA and had a 28 K% over 36.2 innings with a 28.4 GB% and seven home runs. And there’s also the opposite end of that in Wade LeBlanc starting for the Cardinals. He started a game for Baltimore in April, facing 12 batters and has pitched for four different organizations this year, starting in minors and relieving in the majors. He’s struck out 10 of 61 batters (8.8 SwStr%) with two walks. His career high strikeout rate was 20.2% back in 2016. The St Louis bullpen has a 4.84 FIP and 4.77 xFIP over the last month. Hitters in St Louis also get a significant weather boost according to Weather Edge (although that could change, so be sure to check throughout the day). Tyler O’Neill has a 119 wRC+ and .269 ISO vs RHP since 2020 with a 141 wRC+ over the last 30 days that tops the projected lineup for the Cardinals.

The Kansas City bullpen owns a 4.74 ERA, 5.13 FIP and 4.76 xFIP over the last 30 days and Xander Bogaerts (173 wRC+, .215 ISO vs LHP since 2020) shouldn’t suffer much if he only faces Duffy once or twice. He, too, has a 141 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Also, behind Manning, the Detroit bullpen has a 4.70 ERA and 4.51 xFIP, but may not even be that good. Michael Fulmer hit the IL, while Gregory Soto and Jose Cisnero were both heavily used at the top end this weekend. Cleveland is another park that could see a significant weather boost and Jose Ramirez (129 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP since 2020) shouldn’t be bothered by whoever relieves Manning.

Navigating Weather, Injuries & Small Samples Among Mid and Low-Range Pitchers

If you are not paying up for a top end pitcher tonight or need a cheaper SP pairing, who are the alternatives on a board filled with small sample sizes, potentially smaller workloads from those working their way back from injuries and weather concerns, whether that be rain or offensive boosts, according to Weather Edge?

With his strikeout rate up to 23.1% (17.2 K-BB%), Anthony DeSclafani’s non-contact including estimators are around four, but improve when the contact profile is integrated (3.55 xERA, 3.33 FIP). These are still all well above his 2.77 ERA (.238 BABIP, 9.2 HR/FB). But an average pitcher who’s somewhat of a known quantity, has some value on this board. The concerns are his platoon splits (LHBs .344 wOBA, .359 xwOBA since 2020) and one of those potential weather boosts, facing an offense with a 118 wRC+ vs RHP. Still, he costs only $7.3K on DraftKings.

Cleveland may be one of those weather booster parks via Weather Edge, but Eli Morgan may still be interesting as a cheap SP2 against a Detroit offense with a 90 wRC+ and 26.4 K% vs RHP. He has struck out one of 17 Blue Jays in his first start (9.2 SwStr%), five of 18 Orioles in his second (10.4 SwStr%) and then nine of 19 Cubs in his third (18.3 SwStr%). He’s done this while walking just two and increasing his average velocity in each start, while also doubling up on his cutter usage last time out (32.4%). The bad news is that he’s allowed four home runs (23.5 HR/FB) on five barrels (13.9%). He also has just a 17.6 GB% and 91.3 mph EV. Morgan arrived without prospect hype (35+ FV grade via Fangraphs) without a strikeout rate above 25% above A ball. You have to take some risks on this board though. Jerad Eickoff threw a few more sliders than usual (39%) in his first start for the Mets, resulting in a 13 SwStr%, though he only struck out three of 18 Braves, as many as he walked. In 44 AAA innings, he had a 15.1 K-BB%, 14.4% in 444 major league innings. He costs just $5.7K in Washington (93 wRC+ vs RHP).

Kyle Hendricks has thrown six shutout innings in each of his last two starts, striking out 12 of 43 with just two walks. Down to a 4.6 BB%, he still has a strikeout rate (19.1%) lower than his 19.6 HR/FB. Thus, his FIP (5.08) and xERA (5.20) remain above five with 10.4% Barrels/BBE, but additional estimators are a bit lower, though all still above four. While Hendricks has always done better than average by BABIP, leading to an ERA below estimators, this year, he has an unsustainable, career high 83.1 LOB%. At a cost above $9K, over-paying might make some sense on this board that lacks any relatively safe mid-range options outside DeSclafani, who is certainly high risk in tonight’s spot himself. The Brewers have an 83 wRC+ and 25.8 K% vs RHP. Lastly, Matt Manning arrived with significant prospect hype, but has been far from impressive, either at AAA (25 K%, 6.50 FIP, 4.38 xFIP, 11 home runs in 32.1 innings) or in two major league starts (four walks and strikeouts with a 5.7 SwStr%, 40.5 GB% and 91.9 mph EV against 45 batters faced). The prospect ranking, a $5.9K price tag and an 87 wRC+ vs RHP for the home team in Cleveland are the only things in his favor.

Weather Could Impact Top of the Board Pitching Tonight

Trevor Bauer is the only player to reach $10K on both sites tonight and is actually within $100 of $11K on either FanDuel or DraftKings without any other pitcher within $1K of his price range on FD. Freddy Peralta and Lucas Giolito both exceed $10K on DK, reaching $9.5K on FD. Lastly, Zack Greinke costs $9.8K on DraftKings, but is $1.1K cheaper on FanDuel. Those are your high end pitchers on a very difficult Monday board. Difficult because it’s littered with small samples (seven pitcher with three starts or less), injury returnees (Maeda, Duffy) and weather concerns, both in the form of potential offensive boosts (Dodger Stadium, St Louis, Cleveland, Yankee Stadium) or rain concerns (Twins/White Sox). What’s a well-informed daily fantasy player to do?

There may not be much that separates the big three from the top overall start on the board tonight and that probably makes Bauer the worst value of the three. He is still handling a heavy workload. He’s gone three full times through the lineup in four straight starts and even struck out 10 Padres last time out. His 27.7 K% over the last month is still fine, if no longer elite. He’s also allowed three home runs in a start twice over the last month too and now has offered up 17 long balls on the season (15.2 HR/FB, 9.8% Barrels/BBE). Oddly, his 3.00 xERA is now the best of his estimators, which range up to a 3.94 FIP. Dodger Stadium does get one of those aforementioned weather boosts according to Weather Edge currently (though things could change) and the Giants have a 112 wRC+ with a 15.7 HR/FB vs RHP. While they also have a 25.9 K% vs RHP, only one of the projected eight exceeds a 25 K% against RHP since last season, according to PlateIQ.

Giolito’s 35.2 K% and 17 SwStr% over the last month leads the slate. However, despite just an 86.8 mph EV over that span, he’s still allowed eight home runs because just a quarter of his contact (25.4%) has been on the ground. While all non-FIP estimators (18.1 HR/FB) this year are below his 3.80 ERA, none are by more than half a run though. The Twins have a 104 wRC+ and 15.5 HR/FB vs RHP. Three of nine projected exceed a 26 K% vs RHP since 2020, but five are below 20%. While Giolito does not pitch in a park that gets an offensive weather boost, he does pitch in the one that carries the highest risk of interruption due to rain. Should the forecast improve, he and Peralta are fairly close in cost and value, at least on DK.

Peralta owns a board high 36.4 K%. The only thing stopping him is occasional control issues (10.5 BB%) running up his pitch count. He’s exceeded six innings just one of the seven times he’s walked at least three. He’s exceeded five innings in just two of those efforts. However, he’s also gone eight straight starts without allowing more than two runs with just seven in total over that span. Estimators run from a 2.49 xERA to a 3.37 xFIP. The Cubs have a 91 wRC+ and 26.5 K% vs RHP, while the comfort of the dome gives Peralta a safe, neutral run environment. He’s almost certainly the best value on FanDuel at the lowest price of the three ($9.5K). With a strikeout rate down to 13.5% (8.9 SwStr%) over his last five starts and just 17.9% on the year (also 8.9 SwStr%), Zack Greinke is now incredibly reliant on excellent control (5.1%), solid contact management (7.2% Barrels/BBE, 87.7 mph EV) and an exceptional defense/positioning (21 Runs Prevented) for his production. Should any of these falter, he’d enter below average territory. He also gets the safety of a dome in Houston against a poor offense (O’s 81 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP), but is a very difficult to endorse at a high cost at this point.

Expect a Bounce Back Against Pitcher with 12 HRs Last Nine Starts

Generally, walking more than you strike out an indicator of a strong offensive performance, though it famously didn’t turn out that way for the Dodgers last night. Ironically, this happened with the Dodgers finally nearly at full strength, with only Corey Seager missing from the regular lineup against a pitcher with an ERA and estimators above four and a half. We can say that same about Jake Arrieta tonight. He has just a 7.9 K-BB% with a 92 mph EV and 12 home runs over his last nine starts with an ERA and FIP above seven over that span. Since last season, batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA, but the majority of his troubles have come against LHBs (.369 wOBA, .382 xwOBA, according to Statcast). With a projected lineup that includes all eight batters above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP since 2020 and above a 95 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall, expect the Dodgers to bounce back tonight. Despite the negative run environment, they are among the eight teams above five implied runs tonight. Will Smith (171 wRC+, 294 ISO vs RHP since 2020) still costs less than $3K on FanDuel, but you’re going to have to pay up for Dodger bats on DraftKings tonight. Only Matt Beaty (104 wRC+, .130 ISO) costs below $4K among projected starters tonight.

Struggling Pitchers Meet in Top Offensive Environment

Fenway Park is one of the most positive run environments on the slate tonight and while the immediate thought might be that a predominantly right-handed Yankee lineup should pound Martin Perez (13.7 K% L5 starts with a 7.0 SwStr%), there are some flaws in Domingo German’s game as well. After being suspended and not pitching in the majors last year, German’s velocity has been dropping, as he’s allowed seven home runs with just a 19.6 K% over his last five starts. His current 4.17 ERA is within half a run of all his estimators, which are also all above four. Both the Yankees and Red Sox are among the latter half of eight offenses above five implied runs tonight. While Aaron Judge (161 wRC+, .257 ISO vs LHP since 2020) should be one of the more popular bats on the board tonight and rightfully so, consider that German’s 14 home runs allowed this year have been evenly split and with Fenway being more power friendly to RHBs, Xander Bogaerts (130 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP since last season) and J.D. Martinez (118 wRC+, .223 ISO) look as strong as Alex Verdugo (142 wRC+, .217 ISO) and Rafael Devers (147 wRC+, .325 ISO in this spot.

Starting Pitching, Bullpen, Defense All Line Up for Lots of Runs

The Blue Jays have the highest implied run line on the board by more than half a run (6.61), as the Astros are the only other team on the slate even above six in their matchup with Wily Peralta. A good portion of that has to do with the struggles of Matt Harvey, who has allowed 42 runs (40 earned) with seven home runs over his last 27.1 innings. That’s a 13.17 ERA and it’s no longer that small a sample. Of course, estimators are in the fives because a .456 BABIP and 42.7 LOB% are not sustainable, but it’s not like any of it’s good. He has a 10.7 K-BB% and 90.3 mph EV over this span. However, that’s not the end of it either, as Harvey will likely be gone fairly early in this game if the current outlook holds up. The Baltimore defense has a 5.52 ERA and 4.29 FIP over the last 30 days and the defense is in the bottom third of the league at -7 Runs Prevented and -9 Outs Above Average, according to Statcast. MVP candidate Vladimir Guerrero (167 wRC+, .281 ISO vs RHP since 2020) may have already homered in this game and has a 190 wRC+ over the last 30 days. He has a stunning 99 mph average exit velocity on his fly balls and line drives this year. With batters from either side of the plate now exceeding a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against Harvey since last season, there probably isn’t a poor play in the entire lineup. Even Reese McGuire has a 147 wRC+ over the last 30 days and costs less than $25K on either site.

Smash Spot Enhances Value of Struggling Lineup

The St Louis offense has been far from what anyone would call productive this year. Their futility includes a 9.3 HR/FB at home, 85 wRC+ vs RHP and 64 wRC+ with a 5.6 HR/FB over the last seven days. That doesn’t mean that all of the hitters in it haven’t been productive and in the right situation, some of the value in this lineup could go over-looked. A 4.83 implied run line places them just 10th on tonight’s board, but opposing pitcher Wil Crowe has surrendered a .360+ wOBA and xwOBA to batters from either side of the plate since last season. This potentially makes Dylan Carlson (94 wRC+, .151 ISO vs RHP since 2020) and Tyler O’Neill (124 wRC+, .279 ISO) two of the top bats on the board. Both cost less than $3.5K on DraftKings with Carlson only $2.5K on FanDuel. The chief concern here is actually a forecast Kevin currently grades as Orange with the potential for Red. Should the game play though, a 12 mph wind blowing out to left would make it a more favorable hitting environment than normal too.

The Bullpens You Want to Attack on Friday Night

Five starts into his career, Vladimir Gutierrez has just a 7.4 K-BB%, which drives all his contact neutral estimators above five. A 4.52 FIP (7.5 HR/FB) and 3.78 xERA are more optimistic, but may be relying on some unsustainable metrics. While his platoon split exceeds 50 points by wOBA, in favor of a reverse split actually, Statcast drops either side to within one point on either side of a .306 xwOBA, which is about average. However, Cincinnati is one of the most positive run environments on the slate and a struggling bullpen (6.31 ERA, 5.21 FIP last 30 days) just placed their current closer (Lucas Sims) on the IL. This is a very favorable spot for the Braves overall with Ronald Acuna (159 wRC+, .330 ISO vs RHP since 2020) and Freddie Freeman (176 wRC+, .294 ISO) two of the top overall bats on the board. Should Acuna miss a third straight game, Dansby Swanson (105 wRC+, .194 ISO) has been replacing him in the leadoff spot and would be one of the top values on the board for $3.4K on DK and $900 less on FD. The biggest concern here might be a weather forecast that Kevin currently grades as Yellow/Orange.

Another bullpen players might want to attack in a spot where they won’t have to worry about weather is in San Diego with the Diamondbacks visiting. Their relief corps (4.93 ERA, 5.07 xFIP last 30 days) should get plenty of work with Corbin Martin expected to get the start. The first 15.2 major league innings on his Tommy John comeback trail have not gone well. He’s struck out just one more than he’s walked (13 – 12) and allowed three home runs with just one-third of his contact on the ground and a 93 mph EV. Six of eight projected starters for a San Diego lineup at full strength exceed a 100 wRC+ vs RHP since 2020 and five exceed a .200 ISO. One of the outliers (Tommy Pham 93 wRC+, .092 ISO) makes up for that with a lineup leading 163 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Wil Myers (130 wRC+, .238 ISO) may be the sneaky value play here. His resurgence has been a bit hidden by the exploits of Fernando Tatis Jr. (174 wRC+, .354 ISO). The Braves and Padres are two of eight offenses above five implied runs tonight.

A Cheap LHP You Wouldn't Normally Consider & Other Mid-Range Pitching Options

The two most expensive pitchers on the board claim two of the highest upside matchups, but a third belongs to another lefty we normally wouldn’t consider anymore, but may be forced to under tonight’s circumstances. Despite having a predominantly RH lineup and due to some injuries, the Marlins have just an 84 wRC+ with a 28.3 K% vs LHP this season. Jon Lester costs less than $7K and before you scoff, he struck out a season high six Mets last time out, but also has had at least an 11 SwStr% in five of his last seven starts. With everything else being around average or slightly better (7.9 BB%, 42.2 GB%, 88 mph EV, 6.7% Barrels/BBE) any increase to his 16.3 K% could make him a more interesting arm. This is a matchup that should boost his strikeout rate too. Keeping with SP2 DK choices below $7K, Dane Dunning has completed six innings just twice and gone no further, but is effectively throwing tons of sinkers to combine a 55.3 GB% with a 24.8 K%. A 4.71 ERA is well above all of his estimators, due to a .384 BABIP (.425 last 11 starts). He should have some value against the Royals (91 wRC+, 10.6 HR/FB vs RHP).

A bit more expensively, we have Chris Paddack, Griffin Canning, Mike Minor and Pablo Lopez. Paddack looked to be settling in as a perfectly average pitcher, but with his velocity slowly increasing, he’s now struck out 20 of his last 46 batters with a 21.6 SwStr% with half his contact on the ground. Suddenly, his worst estimator is a 3.81 xERA (9.9% Barrels/BBE) with a 20.5 K-BB%. His ERA remains above four due to a low strand rate (65.7 LOB%). He’s still less than $9K against an Arizona offense with just a 79 wRC+, 24.9 K% and 9.0 HR/FB vs RHP. Despite a 14.7 SwStr%, Canning has been unable to turn that into an elite strikeout rate (24.4%), for which he suffers because the rest of his profile can be a bit troubling at times (10.1 BB%, 33.8 GB%, 9.7% Barrels/BBE). A 4.17 xERA and 4.38 SIERA suggest he’s an average pitcher already, but all other estimators are within half a run of his 5.07 ERA. He gets a park upgrade tonight, but simply, what we like here is that there is just one batter in the projected Tampa Bay lineup below a 25 K% vs RHP since 2020. Canning is $8K or less on either site.

A 4.78 DRA is the only estimator not close to a half run below Minor’s 4.48 ERA with a 71.1% strand rate that seems a bit light for his 18.8 K-BB% with a near average contact profile. The Rangers have an 83 wRC+ against LHP this year with three batters in the projected lineup above a 28 K% vs LHP since 2020, but nobody else above 20%, which is a surprise. Minor is within $300 of $8.5K on either site and Texas, with the roof closed, has played as a negative run environment. Lopez is a within $300 of $9K on either site and has flipped the script in his last two starts, pitching well at Wrigley, but struggling at home against the Braves. He’s generally had significant home/road splits since reaching the majors, pitching much better at home, mostly due to a lower home run rate. Estimators run fairly tightly around three and a half this year, more than a half run above his 2.86 ERA (78.8 LOB%). The Nationals have a 93 wRC+ vs RHP this year, but just three of eight batters in the projected lineup exceed a 20 K% since last year.

The Easy Top Pitching Choice on a Board Ruled by Lefties

The most expensive and best pitcher on the slate tonight is Carlos Rodon. If you thought he peaked with his no-hitter, consider that his velocity still seems to be rising with each start. He’s the only pitcher on the slate above a 30 K% (36.6%, 15.8 SwStr%), he’s struck out at least eight in 10 of 12 starts and in seven quality starts he has not allowed more than a single run. The Mariners have an 85 wRC+ and 27.6 K% vs LHP. Rodon is your easy pitching answer if you’re unconcerned about ownership. Framber Valdez is the only other pitcher reaching $10K on either site, as he too, does so on both sites. Since his first start of the season, Valdez has completed seven innings and at least three full turns through the lineup in four straight starts. The 22.1 K% may not be impressive, but he has an 11.6 SwStr% with 71.1% of his contact on the ground, which has led to 3.3% Barrels/BBE, despite a 90.1 mph EV. Also with a great matchup, Valdez travels to Detroit to face an offense with a 78 wRC+ and 29.4 K% vs LHP. The two most expensive pitchers on the board face two of the three highest strikeout splits on the board in terms of pitcher handedness.

Keeping with the left-handed theme, the only two remaining pitchers above $9K on both site are Sean Manaea and Yusei Kikuchi and both have much tougher matchups than the two higher priced lefties. With his velocity steadily rising like Rodon, Manaea has been improving as the season’s gone on. He has a 27.1 K% (13.3 SwStr%) over the last month, punching out a season high 11 Yankees last time out. He’s magically been able to turn a 90 mph EV with a 39.9 GB% into just 6.1% Barrels/BBE and a 9.0 HR/FB, which matches his 3.01 ERA to a 3.07 FIP. Additional estimators, including a 3.73 xERA are about three quarters of a run higher. However, the Giants have a 110 wRC+ and 21.3 HR/FB vs LHP. Only two players in the projected lineup exceed a 22 K% against southpaws since last year. Still, at the level Manaea has been pitching, he’s still a reasonable option for less than $10K.

Kikuchi seems to be facing an offense that pummels LHP nearly every time out (with a short reprieve over his last few starts) and still has managed to produce a 3.46 ERA that nearly matches his 3.46 xFIP, though additional estimators are a bit higher, as a .226 BABIP, 79.3 LOB% and 21.7 HR/FB need to work themselves out. He’s struck out a quarter of batters faced (25.3%) with more than half his contact on the ground (52.1%). Kikuchi has recorded seventh inning outs seven times, failing to complete six innings just twice this year. However, the White Sox have a 120 wRC+ and 16.1 HR/FB vs LHP. On a more positive note, five of nine projected batters for the White Sox exceed a 24.5 K% vs LHP since 2020.

Top Priced Pitcher Tonight Has Struggled vs LHBs

If you want an off the radar stack with some upside, consider left-handed Cleveland bats. Jose Ramirez (129 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP since 2020) is the only projected Cleveland bat above $3K on FanDuel and LHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Jose Berrios since last season. Considering Cleveland’s 3.86 implied run line, odds makers don’t expect this to be a major issue tonight and the offense for this team has been quite marginal this year (87 wRC+ vs RHP), but that doesn’t mean a few key bats can’t do some damage in a better than perceived spot here. Bobby Bradley (145 wRC+, .330 ISO) is one of those cheap FanDuel bats and leads the projected lineup with a 147 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Eddie Rosario (107 wRC+, .201 ISO) is the only other projected batter above either a 100 wRC+ or .200 ISO against RHP since last year.

Top Value Bats on the Board May Be Left-Handed Portion of this Lineup

Aside from one or two potentially over-priced arms, pitching isn’t very expensive tonight, so it’s not as crucial for players to find every single value bat on the board to cram into their lineups, but it can still be important to locate a few if you want to jam the top stacks on the slate. That’s where the left-handed portion of the Minnesota lineup may come in handy. At 5.14 implied runs, they’re fourth best on the board against Jean Carlos Mejia, a rotation filler for the Cleveland club. He has struck out just nine of 54 in four start and had major issues with LHBs in his short tenure in the major leagues with a wOBA and xwOBA exceeding .400. Consider that Jorge Polanco is the only projected batter for the Twins above a $3.5K price tag on DK or $3K cost on FD and this lineup is potentially loaded with value plays. Trevor Larnach (134 wRC+, .172 ISO vs RHP) and Luis Arraez (114 wRC+ vs RHP since 2020) are the cheapest with Max Kepler (136 wRC+, .264 ISO) and Alex Kirilloff (98 wRC+, .155 ISO) more than reasonably priced as well. If you should be paying up for Walker Buehler or Jose Berrios tonight, a Minnesota LH stack might be the best way to get there.

At Near Full Health, This LIneup May Be Ready to Roll

The returns of Cody Bellinger (123 wRC+, .223 ISO vs RHP since 2020) and Max Muncy (123 wRC+, .229 ISO) leave the Dodgers just one Corey Seager short of full strength (assuming Mookie Betts is over his recent illness) and for Bellinger, it’s not a moment too soon. The Dodgers are facing Zach Davies tonight. He was hammered for eight runs by the Marlins in his last start. Davies allowed two home runs and walked three with just two strikeouts, driving his ERA up to 4.66, which matches his FIP (4.63), but is still well below all other estimators (8.3 HR/FB) with just a 2.8 K-BB% on the season. A big reason he’s flying below his estimators is the gap between his wOBA (.258) and xwOBA (.334) against LHBs since last year. Bellinger does not see the problem though, as he’s homered twice in 16 PAs against Davies. With RHBs owning a .341 wOBA and .388 xwOBA against Davies over that same span, Will Smith (172 wRC+, .296 ISO) may be the catcher you want in your lineup tonight. He costs just $2.7K on FanDuel. We can now say that every batter in the projected Dodger lineup exceeds a 100 wRC+ vs RHP since last season and only Matt Beaty and Justin Turner are below a .180 ISO. At 5.34 implied runs, the Dodgers are third from the top tonight and returning to full healthy finally, they just may be ready to roll.

Smash Spot in a Great Park Against the Worst Bullpen & Defense

Despite only one park on the board that you can really call a positive run environment (Cincinnati), five offenses reach five implied runs or higher tonight, including two (Blue Jays & Astros) above six. This includes both teams in Cincinnati tonight tentatively at five a piece. While the Braves haven’t officially named a starter yet in what may end up being a bullpen game, the Reds will send Tony Santillan to the mound for his third major league start. He has struck out eight of 39 batters (8.0 SwStr%) with five walks, two home runs, a 31.8 GB% and 92.8 mph EV. A 34.4 K% in 32.1 AAA innings caught the attention of the organization, despite reports that project him as a future reliever, who has difficulty holding his velocity. It’s certainly still a small sample, but it needs to be mentioned that LHBs have just a .248 wOBA (.273 xwOBA) against Santillan while RHBs are above .500. Let’s hope that Ronald Acuna (169 wRC+, .330 ISO vs RHP since 2020) finds himself back in the lineup tonight after being a late scratch last night because he and his 167 wRC+ over the last 30 days may be the top bat on the board tonight. Even if Santillan only finds his way through the lineup twice, the Cincinnati bullpen has a league worst 6.26 ERA and 5.20 FIP over the last 30 days and the defense (MLB worst -17 Runs Prevented via Statcast) will be out there all game long. Each of the first seven batters in the projected Altanta lineup exceed a 100 wRC+ and .150 ISO vs RHP since 2020. Stack up your Braves.