DFS Alerts

Navigating Some Difficult Pitching Choices on Thursday

Joe Ross and Nick Pivetta are the third and fourth most expensive pitchers on DraftKings at $9.6K and $9.5K respectively and both have high upside road matchups in Florida. Ross is in Miami (91 wRC+, 25.2 K% vs RHP) and Pivetta is in Tampa Bay (108 wRC+, but 26.2 K% vs RHP). Both have major drawbacks as well too. Ross has seven starts with two runs or less, but six with four or more and has only struck out more than five three times. The overall numbers are really marginal with a 4.54 ERA, 4.51 xFIP and 4.50 xERA, but you never know how he’ll get there from start to start, which gives him some value on this slate. Perhaps more so on FanDuel just $7.4K. He does have a 25.7 K% and 13.2 SwStr% over the last month. Pivetta has the second best strikeout rate on the board (27%), but with a slightly below average 10.7 SwStr% and 11.3 BB%. Over his last three games, he has a 36.4 GB% and 92.2 mph EV, which has led to six home runs, but four of those came in one start against the Blue Jays. For the season, all estimators are within one-third of a run of his 4.36 ERA. This is all scary. He could get blown up, but you have to consider the strikeout upside in this spot in GPPs.

If you absolutely need a low priced SP2 on DraftKings, Cody Poteet ($7.1K) now only has one estimator below four and a half (4.00 xERA), but in a negative run environment, he faces a Washington offense with a 93 wRC+ vs RHP. They also have a 135 wRC+ and 21.6 HR/FB over the last week though. Carlos Martinez ($6.3K) has allowed 25 runs (all earned) over his last 13.2 innings. For the season, estimators are all below a 6.62 ERA (55 LOB%), but only his FIP (4.51) is below five. None of this is good, of course, but he does face the Pirates (84 wRC+, 8.9 HR/FB vs RHP) at home. Lastly, the Orioles have a 114 wRC+ vs LHP, but Anthony Kay costs the minimum with a 24.5 K%, 50 GB% and 86.3 mph EV. He’s allowed more home runs (five) than barrels (four). He could go through the order twice and has thrown as many as 91 pitches in a start this season. There are no easy SP2 choices tonight.

Top Pitcher on the Board Less Than $9K on DraftKings?

Walker Buehler is the only pitcher to reach the $10K price point on both sites and, in fact, he costs at least $11K on either site, more than $1K more than any other pitcher. It seems a bit of a reach to pay $11K or more for a 25.7 K%. Mostly due to a 5.4 BB%, his estimators sit in a tight range between 3.51 (DRA) and 3.69 (SIERA), all more than a run above his ERA (2.38), due to a .228 BABIP and 86.2 LOB%. He is coming off complete dominance of the Diamondbacks (11 Ks, nine of 12 batted balls on the ground) and the Cubs are a favorable matchup (93 wRC+ vs RHP, 26.1 K%) in a great park, but this is the profile of a good pitcher being priced like Jacob deGrom.

The only other pitcher who reaches even $9K on both sites is Jose Berrios. The major positive Berrios has in common with Buehler is that both are the only pitchers on the board averaging 24 batters faced per start and Berrios has also struck out a quarter of batters faced (25.7%), but with a below average swinging strike rate (10.7%), which is even lower over his last four starts (7%). Berrios has estimators very similar to Buehler too (3.65 SIERA, 3.57 FIP), though the contact profile pushes him above four (4.26 xERA). He’s a fairly volatile arm, who only has five quality starts on the season and the projected Cleveland lineup has five batters below a 17.5 K% vs RHP since 2020.

Now, let’s cover the guy who might be the top pitcher on the slate. The top strikeout and swinging strike rates on the board belong to Luis Garcia (28.1%, 13%). He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his 12 starts and even that many only three times. A 3.40 xERA is his best estimator with the remainders in the upper threes. He’s only completed six innings four times, but those instances have come in his last five starts. The Tigers have a 92 wRC+ and split high 26.5 K% vs RHP this year. Six of nine projected batters exceed a 25 K% vs RHP since last season. Garcia is the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel ($9.6K), but nearly $1K less on DraftKings ($8.7K).

Slumping Club (43 wRC+ Last Seven Days) in Breakout Spot Tonight

It would be difficult to call the Cubs offense good this year (92 wRC+ vs RHP) and certainly not consistent (MLB low 43 wRC+ last seven days), but the weather at Wrigley tonight appears to be calm and the matchup with Eli Morgan offers them a chance to bust out of that slump. Morgan had just a 20.8 K% and 11.1 BB% through 17.1 AAA innings before being called up and seems to be simply filling a hole without much prospect hype (35+ Future Value grade via Fangraphs). He’s struck out just six of 35 batters (9.8 SwStr%) with three home runs and four barrels over 26 batted balls. Over this small sample, batters from either side of the plate exceed a .500 wOBA and have at least a .450 xwOBA against him. Despite their recent struggles, every batter in the projected lineup exceeds a .160 ISO vs RHP since 2020 with four of them above .200. Batters projected to be in the lineup tonight with both a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO against RHP since last season include Joc Pederson (105 wRC+, .246 ISO), who has been heating up this month (111 wRC+ last 30 days), Anthony Rizzo (109 wRC+, .226 ISO) and Ian Happ (115 wRC+, .231 ISO). Happ has just a 42 wRC+ over the last month, but is within $300 of $3K on either site tonight. The Cubs are one of only two teams to reach five implied runs tonight (Houston is the other), but recent struggles could hinder ownership in what appears to be a fine spot.

Cheap Outfield Bats with Strong Platoon Edges

You’re going to need some cheap bats to mix in with your expensive pitching tonight and a lot of those guys can be found roaming the outfield tonight. Bordering on the ridiculous, Michael Brantley (176 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP since 2020) costs less than $4K on DraftKings in Baltimore against Jorge Lopez (LHBs .357 wOBA, .358 xwOBA since 2020). Rostering Brantley and/or Chas McCormick (119 wRC+, .262 ISO) may allow players to add Yordan Alvarez (136 wRC+, .208 ISO) as well.

Baltimore is not the only place you’ll find value outfielders and Austin Slater’s cheap price tag makes a little more sense as he generally only plays against lefties, but when he does, he also generally leads off and adds some wallop to the lineup (152 wRC+, .256 ISO vs LHP since 2020). Andrew Heaney is a solid arm, but has been prone to the long ball (career 15 HR/FB). Should you need to go even cheaper, LHBs have a .333 wOBA and .394 xwOBA against Johan Oviedo and while some of that is due to control issues, Akil Baddoo (160 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP) costs just $2.3K on DraftKings.

Top Power Bat in Top Park Facing Pitcher with a Substantial Platoon Split

No matter which arm(s) you decide to roster, you’re likely paying up for at least one pitcher tonight, but it might be a good idea to pay up for two, but one of them with a bat in his hand. Anthony DeSclafani isn’t a bad pitcher, but a substantial platoon split is a major obstacle for him in taking his game up another level. LHBs have a .349 wOBA (.363 xwOBA) against him since last season and that potentially makes Shohei Ohtani (137 wRC+, .299 ISO vs RHP since 2020) the top bat on the slate tonight, especially when you consider that Statcast Park Factors give the home of the Angels the top LH Home Run Factor in baseball (141). Ohtani has a 200 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. Of course, players should also want to consider Jared Walsh (192 wRC+, .374 ISO) here. Those are the only two good LHBs the Angels have, though they still carry a top five implied run line tonight at 4.71.

Great Power Numbers Against an Elite Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw is still one of the top pitchers in the game and in fact, has the second highest swinging strike rate on the board tonight (16.1%). Players may not necessarily be rostering him with all of the strong pitching options on tonight’s slate, but we also shouldn’t expect them to attack him either. After all, the Padres have just 3.75 implied run line tonight. However, there may be a bit of contrarian wisdom here because Kershaw hasn’t been untouchable this year. He’s allowed as many as five runs on four separate occasions and though he threw a quality start in each of his two starts against the Padres this year, he also allowed three home runs in his most recent effort against them. The two batters you should be thinking of here are the two you probably already are. On top of Manny Machado (143 wRC+, .252 ISO) and Fernando Tatis’s (111 wRC+, .283 ISO) success against LHP since last season, they have a combined five home runs in 46 PAs against Kershaw and each has an xwOBA of .370 or better against him. Stacking against Kershaw is a bigger risk. He’s probably not getting blown up, but he has surrendered all nine of his home runs to RHBs this year.

A 20.6 K-BB% with an ERA Above Six Should Regress

The great regression has not yet begun. That is to say that Eduardo Rodriguez keeps getting pummeled (7.63 ERA last nine starts) despite estimators below four (3.74 FIP, 3.61 xFIP) over that span. This includes a 25.7 K% (17.8 K-BB%), .441 BABIP and 59.3 LOB%. If you’re looking for a culprit, his 28.2 LD% stands as one, which is more launch angle than exit velocity (89.2 mph EV), but .4-freakin-41!!! He has a 20.6 K-BB% for the season with a 6.21 ERA and a 4.78 DRA his only estimator above four. By his underlying numbers and estimators, Rodriguez might be the best value on the board. He costs exactly $6.4K on either site in one of the highest upside matchups possible. In a negative run environment, he takes on the Rays (87 wRC+ vs LHP). Five of nine projected starters for Tampa Bay exceed a 29 K% against LHP since 2020.

Should you be looking for a cheap SP2 to pair with your high priced stud on DraftKings and still be fearful of ERod’s ERA, there are a number of additional options today. Like Rodriguez, Brady Singer has estimators well below his 4.76 ERA (though not to the same extent). With a 23.3 K%, 50.5 GB% and just 4% Barrels/BBE, his 3.60 xERA and 3.45 FIP (8.6 HR/FB) are his best estimators and only ones below four, though none are higher than a 4.23 DRA. The Yankees have just a 95 wRC+ and 25.3 K% vs RHP. Singer costs $5.3K on DraftKings. A season high eight strikeouts against the Twins last time out pushes Chris Flexen’s strikeout rate up to 15.9% (8.7 SwStr%), though he’s had a double digit SwStr% in three of his last four starts. With near immaculate control (4.3%) he could stick around a while with an increased strikeout rate as only his DRA (5.33) is more than one-third of a run removed from his 4.12 ERA currently. What we really love here is the park and matchup. The Rockies have a 58 wRC+ and 27 K% on the road this year with just a 71 wRC+ vs RHP. Flexen costs $5.5K on DK. Ross Stripling struck out a season high nine Yankees last time out and although he’s allowed seven runs over his last 12.1 innings, we’re now looking at a 25 K% with just a 6.9 BB%. Unfortunately, a 3.89 SIERA is his only estimator below four and while his 4.64 ERA is still above all those estimators, it’s mostly justified by a 90.4 mph EV and 11.5% Barrrels/BBE to go along with a 37.5 GB% (4.56 xERA). He too gets a park upgrade against the Marlins (93 wRC+, 25.1 K% vs RHP) with a cost below $6K.

Two additional pitchers who may be able to stand on their own are Sandy Alcantara and Tarik Skubal. Alcantara has completed six innings in 13 of 15 starts with 11 quality starts this season. The 23.3 K% won’t blow you away, but a 13.3 SwStr% suggests the potential for growth behind a fantastic contact profile (53.9 GB%, 87.2 mph EV, 3.5% Barrels/BBE). Estimators range from 2.84 xERA to a 3.96 DRA. He’s still affordable because the matchup is a bit tougher. The Blue Jays have a 111 wRC+ with only one batter in the projected lineup exceeding a 24.5 K% vs RHP, but this is a potentially a $10K pitcher in a $9K price tag, pitching in a great park where the Blue Jays lose the DH. Skubal allowed multiple home runs last time out for the first time in seven starts, but still authored a quality start. His 34.7 K% over the last month is third best on a board full of studs and striking out 33.7% over seven has really keeps his ERA and estimators around three and a half over that span with a FIP closer to four because he’s still generating lots of hard contact (92.2 mph EV) in the air (37.7 GB%) when they do hit the ball (18.6 HR/FB). The Cardinals have a 101 wRC+, but just a 10.7 HR/FB vs LHP. The drawback is that only one player in the projected lineup exceeds a 25 K% vs LHP since 2020, but SKubal costs just $6.6K on DraftKings.

A Fairly Extensive Rundown of Tonight's Top Arms

Six of 28 starting pitchers reach the $10K price point on at least one site tonight, as it seems like every team is throwing one of their best arms out there tonight. Although he somewhat disappointed despite six shutout innings against the Dodgers last time out, Zach Wheeler could be considered the top overall pitcher tonight and is the most expensive on FanDuel for his matchup against the Nationals (90 wRC+ vs RHP). Wheeler’s command was off, as he tied a season high with four walks against the Dodgers, striking out six of 27 and failing to complete seven innings for just the second time in 10 starts. Incredibly, a 3.01 SIERA is his only estimator above three and worse than his opponent tonight, Max Scherzer. He has a 38 K% and 15.9 SwStr% over the last 30 days and an 85.4 mph EV (5.2% Barrels/BBE) on the season. He combines a heavy workload with an elite strikeout rate and contact profile. The Nationals don’t strike out a ton, but three of eight projected batters exceed a 26 K% vs RHP since 2020.

Gerrit Cole is exactly $11K on both sites, making him top dog on DraftKings. He has allowed just four runs over his last 14 innings, all on solo home runs. While he struck out nine Twins with just an 8.5 SwStr% two starts back, last time out, he struck out just four Blue Jays, but with a 14.4 SwStr%. Perhaps the most concerning sign here is that he’s allowed multiple home runs in four of his last eight starts with more than seven strikeouts just twice over that span (27.9 K%). Of course, he also has just a 4.6 BB% and 13.3 SwStr% over that span as well. It’s not like he’s going to be a below average pitcher now either way, but perhaps the spin rate thing drops his output enough to strip any excess value at his current price tag. Estimators are around three and a half over the last month. The Royals have just a 22.1 K% vs RHP.

Scherzer essentially missed two starts with a hamstring issue having come out of his previous start after facing only a single batter. He tops the slate with both a 36 K% and 16.5 SwStr% with the risks being obvious in the park and Philly and a potentially shortened workload. From a performance standpoint, his worst estimator is a 3.13 xFIP, but all are at least a half run above his 2.21 ERA (.239 BABIP, 89.1 LOB%). He’s $10.8K on either site with four of eight projected Phillies above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2020. If you buy into a full workload, Scherzer could be a stronger GPP leverage play than normal if other players are backing off due to risk amid all the other strong options tonight.

Lucas Giolito, Clayton Kershaw and Freddy Peralta reach $10K on just one site tonight. With a 33.6 K% (17.5 SwStr%) over his last five starts, Giolito has pushed his season rate up to 30.9% (15.9 SwStr%), which is somehow only fifth best on this board. He’s been extremely home run prone this year (18.3 HR/FB), which is exacerbated by a 35.6 GB% even with a decent 88.3 mph EV. It’s been a bit of misfortune that 16 of his 20 Barrels (9.9%) have left the yard. All non-FIP estimators are below his 3.86 ERA and in fact, a 3.30 xERA is his lowest mark. He’s should excel in run prevention tonight (Pirates 84 wRC+, 8.9 HR/FB vs RHP). Kershaw’s 16.1 SwStr% is second best on this board, though his 29.3 K% just seventh. He’s completed six innings with nine strikeouts in three straight starts, though did allow five runs in one of them and has allowed that many earned runs four times this season, throwing the occasional clunker amongst his gems. His 3.36 ERA is actually above all of his estimators, but not by a significant margin with only a 2.75 FIP (12 HR/FB) more than a half run removed. Just three of eight projected Padres exceed an 18 K% vs LHP though. A 35.9 K% puts Peralta barely second on tonight’s board. He’s allowed more than two runs in just two of 13 starts with exactly a 10% walk rate. Only 33.7% of his contact has been on the ground, but with just an 87.8 mph EV, he’s allowed just 7.1% Barrels/BBE. A 2.49 xERA is his best estimator and most in line with a 2.28 ERA. The .197 BABIP is unlikely to be sustainable though. Arizona has just an 80 wRC+ and 8.9 HR/FB vs RHP, but the projected lineup has mostly marginal strikeout rates. While you’re unlikely to go too far wrong with any of these top arms, matchups may dictate that your best chances lie with Wheeler and Giolito tonight.

Rare Affordability in Top Offense Tonight

The Astros have devastated LHP to the tune of a 126 wRC+ this season, mostly because they don’t strike out (17.5%), and if you think the absence of Alex Bregman should have slowed them down, think again. The Astros have a team 156 wRC+ and 20.6 HR/FB over the last week and a trip to Baltimore isn’t likely to slow them down. The Astros have a team 5.89 implied run line that no other team comes within a full run of right now and while stacking Astros against marginal lefties is hardly anything new, it can generally become quite expensive. This is where the absence of Bregman can actually benefit daily fantasy players because Chas McCormick (92 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP since 2020) and Abraham Toro (122 wRC+, .138 ISO) make everything a bit more affordable. Martin Maldonado is the only batter in the projected lineup below a 115 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Yuli Gurriel (164 wRC+, .278 ISO) takes over the title of top bat in the lineup against LHP and still costs a reasonable $3.3K on FanDuel. As for Baltimore starter Keegan Akin, he had the strange combination of 27 batters faced, seven strikeouts and eight earned runs last time out. A 13.3 K-BB and 7.7% Barrels/BBE project a 4.03 xERA that’s the best of his estimators, though all except a 5.67 DRA more than a run below his 5.76 ERA. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .310 to .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.

As Many Barrels As Strikeouts Prior to Last Start

Brett Anderson accumulated 30% of his 2021 strikeout total when he went seven innings against the Reds, striking out nine of 23 batters and adding another nine ground balls. He utilized his changeup (34.1%) and curveball (19.5%) at season high rates, but his slider (6.1%) and a sinker (35.4%) he’d been throwing 50% of the time at season lows. Prior to his last start, Anderson had generated as many barrels as strikeouts (21 each). With a 14.6 K%, 92.5 mph EV and 13.2% Barrels/BBE, a 54.5 GB% is the only friend he’s got. We shouldn’t expect a repeat performance from Anderson here because it’s not something he’s done in half a decade. He hasn’t struck out even seven in a game since 2015 before his last start. Since last season, batters from both sides of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The Arizona offense doesn’t include a lot of good hitters, but in a small sample, both Ketel Marte (223 wRC+, .279 ISO) and Asdrubal Cabrera (130 wRC+, .272 ISO) have scorched LHP since last season. With both players having spent some time on the IL, Cabrera has just a 20 wRC+ since returning, but Marte tops the projected lineup with a 140 wRC+ over the last 30 days and was off to an MVP caliber start prior to his injury this year. Unless Brett Anderson is planning on completely reinventing himself, we should expect more barrels and fewer strikeouts than he showed us last time out.

Combined Five Home Runs in 30 PAs Against Tonight's Pitcher

Kyle Gibson’s matchup with the A’s is one of those spots where a decent amount of exposure to either side can be justified because Gibson costs just $6.3K on DraftKings and has had stellar results, but also because those results have been much better than the underlying numbers (.244 BABIP, 84 LOB%) and the Oakland offense is quite potent (105 wRC+ vs RHP). In fact, of the three A’s who have faced Gibson at least 15 times, both Matt Olson (three home runs, .620 xwOBA, 15 PAs) and Ramon Laureano (two home runs, .526 xwOBA, 15 PAs) have hammered him. The Oakland lineup is balanced and while Gibson has only a single point split (.302/.303) by wOBA since last season, Statcast drives LHBs up to a .336 xwOBA (RHBs only to .307). However, four of the five projected RHBs for Oakland (excluding Elvis Andrus) exceed a 100 wRC+ and .175 ISO vs same-handed pitching since 2020. Oakland sits near the middle of the board at just 4.16 implied runs, but a top half stack including Mark Canha (126 wRC+, .176 ISO vs RHP since 2020), Laureano (107 wRC+, .196 ISO), Olson (135 wRC+, .265 ISO) and Mitch Moreland (120 wRC+, .218 ISO), at a lesser price, could pay off tonight.

Navigating the Rest of the Pitching Board

This is a somewhat difficult pitching board on a six game slate as we’re short on good pitchers in decent spots, but have plenty of marginal pitchers with normally heavy workloads, who probably won’t win you a GPP, but may have higher floors. We’re talking about guys like Aaron Civale and Merrill Kelly, who have estimators above four, but average nearly three full times through the batting order per outing. One name we have to mention because he is the second most expensive pitcher on DraftKings ($9.8K), but a full $1K less on FanDuel, is Tyler Mahle. has struck out 34 of his last 93 batters (13.9 SwStr%) against the Rockies and other marginal offenses of the NL Central. His season strikeout rate, now a touch below 30% (29.6%) and just 6.4% Barrels/BBE, all estimators are within half a run of a 3.39 ERA, the worst being a 3.55 xFIP. All of his pitches have a 30+ Whiff% in June with his splitter being the real standout pitch this year (.235 wOBA, 35.8 Whiff%). This is all great, so what’s the problem? First of all is a healthier Minnesota offense with a 102 wRC+ and 15.4 HR/FB vs RHP this year, though more frustratingly, he’s only completed six innings or faced more than 23 batters in five of 14 starts this year. However, three of those five efforts have come in his last three starts and he’s thrown at least 95 pitchers in four straight with his first 100 pitch effort of the season last time out (107), so perhaps the reigns are loosening.

Civale went from throwing his best game of the season against the Mariners to a clunker against the Orioles. Overall, a complete overhaul of his arsenal hasn’t really led to much of an improved performance, if any. The results include a 3.48 ERA, but all estimators are a bit above four with a single digit SwStr% and strikeout rate below 20%. That said, the wind is blowing in at Wrigley, which makes him more of a quality start candidate and a stronger value on FanDuel ($8K), where he’s $500 cheaper than DraftKings. By most metrics (14.3 K-BB%, 42.4 GB%, 89.7 mph EV), Kelly is a very average pitcher (4.28 SIERA & FIP), though a 63.6 LOB% results in an ERA above five. Statcast is the most pessimistic on him (4.52 xERA). The 21.4 K% (9.0 SwStr%) is below average, but he has a great matchup (Brewers 82 wRC+, 25.6 K% vs RHP), has completed six innings in half of his 14 starts (though only four quality starts) and costs only $6.2 K on FanDuel. The Diamondbacks seem content to continue letting him pitch deep into games no matter what the results.

Combing the bottom half of the board for potential SP2 options on DraftKings is even more difficult. Kyle Gibson & Jake Odorizzi cost less than $6.5K, but for a reason. Gibson has an 18.3 K% (8.3 SwStr%) over his last five starts and his season strikeout rate is now just 19.9%. His contact neutral estimators (SIERA, xFIP) are now above four (.244 BABIP, 84 LOB%), but with a 51.6 GB% and just 4.1% Barrels/BBE, his FIP (3.37) and xERA (3.11) remain All-Star quality metrics. He’s thrown 11 quality starts in 12 attempts since his opening day fiasco. The A’s have a 105 wRC+ vs RHP and only two batters in the projected lineup above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2020. He may be the better overall value of the two.

Odorizzi piggybacked Lance McCullers last time out, completing four scoreless innings. He has a 5.68 ERA without a quality start yet, but a 17.1 K-BB% and 60.9 LOB%. A 35.2 GB% and 90.8 mph EV are not helping a 17.2 HR/FB. Yet, his 7.0% Barrels/BBE is better than average and very close to his career rate. In fact, his 3.86 xERA is the best estimator he has. The Orioles have an 85 wRC+ and 25.1 K% vs RHP. Odorizzi is the more volatile pitcher he, but may have more upside.

Unexpected Top Pitcher Has Been on a Roll

On a six game slate, three pitchers exceed $9K on both sites, while Yu Darvish is the only pitcher to reach $10K and he does so on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Darvish’s strikeout rate is down to 23.9% over his last five starts, which should probably not be a surprise, considering his 12.1 SwStr% this season is only half a point above his 11.6 SwStr% over the last 30 days. He’s struck out exactly five in four of these five starts. On a more positive note, his 40.5 GB% over the last month brings his season rate up to 34.1%, though a home run in each of his last four starts nearly doubles his season total to nine. With just an 86.6 mph EV and 5.3% Barrels/BBE, a 2.78 xERA is closest to his 2.57 ERA. All other estimators are above three (.254 BABIP, 82 LOB%). The Dodgers have a 120 wRC+ vs RHP and are missing basically every key LHB, but they still have a team 118 wRC+ over the last week and only three batters in the projected lineup below a .340 wOBA or .200 ISO vs RHP since last season. Consider that Darvish may be over-valued.

A theme you may notice on tonight’s slate is that is flush with pitchers who generally see larger workloads. Half of tonight’s pitchers are averaging at least 23 batters faced per game. While Julio Urias is one of those pitchers, he’s been doing it with a lower pitch count than most. In fact, he’s just coming off a season high 96 pitches against the Phillies. He’s walked six over his last four starts, which doesn’t seem like a lot and isn’t (6.3%), but he’s only walked 13 all year and the ultra-efficiency is what generally allows him to pitch deeper into games. For example, over these last four starts, he’s only completed six innings once after having done so seven times in his first ten starts. Hence, we have a pitcher who’s efficiency makes it look like he’s being allowed a larger workload than he really is. At a cost within $100 of $9K on either site, that’s a problem against a San Diego offense that may have just a 90 wRC+ vs LHP, but also just a 13 K-BB%. The lack of production stems more from a 12.1 HR/FB against left-handed pitching. At full health though, this is a projected lineup including four batters above a .200 ISO vs LHP since last season.

Finally, we come to potentially the top pitcher on the board tonight…Frankie Montas??? With his velocity creeping up, Montas has a 28.8 K% (14.3 SwStr%) over his last five starts. With everything else remaining the same (walks, batted ball and contact profiles), it drops his estimators over that span to somewhere around three, around a run below current estimators. All but a 4.04 xERA (9.9% Barrels/BBE) are now below four on the year now. Half of Montas’s 14 starts have been at least six innings with three runs or less or what we call quality starts. The opposition in Texas has just an 82 wRC+ at home and 88 wRC+ vs RHP, striking out a quarter of the time in both instances. Five of the projected nine exceed a 27 K% against RHP since last season. Frankie Montas is the second most expensive pitcher on FanDuel (third on DraftKings), within $100 of $9.5K on either site, but he could potentially be the top arm on the board tonight.

Weather Conditions are the Key in this Matchup

The Royals have yet to officially name a starter tonight against the Red Sox, but truthfully, it may hardly matter. The key numbers are 100 and 10 because according to Kevin’s forecast that’s what the temperature and wind (out to left) are expected to be near tonight. With a predominantly RH lineup, this should suit the Red Sox just fine. Jackson Kowar is expected to be the victim. He arrived in the big leagues decently touted (45 FV grade via Fangraphs) with a 33.9 K% in 31.2 AAA innings, but has proceeded to allow eight runs to the Angels and A’s over just two innings in two starts, walking five of 19 batters with a single strikeout. Even if he does not get the call, it’s not like we’re concerned the Royals might stunningly run 1985 Bret Saberhagen out there. Xander Bogaerts (134 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP since 2020) and J.D. Martinez (122 wRC+, .224 ISO) are the key bats with the biggest advantage here, but won’t come cheap. The smoking hot Christian Arroyo (124 wRC+, .220 ISO) may be the value play here.

LHBs Exceed a .400 wOBA & xwOBA Against This Pitcher Since Last Season

On a team level, the Twins have been awful this year, but they can still hit a little bit and are in a favorable spot to do some damage in Texas on Friday night. Mike Foltynewitz has two and a half times as many runs allowed (20) as strikeouts (eight) over his last five starts (109 BF). His SIERA, FIP and xFIP align nicely between 5.94 and 5.96 over this span. Since last season, LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA exceeding .400 against him now. With Luis Arraez and Trevor Larnach (both 113 wRC+ vs RHP since 2020) projected towards the top of the lineup, the Twins may have two of the top values on the board with either within $300 of $3K on DraftKings and $300 of $2.5K on FanDuel. The downside is that neither has shown much power and are below a .120 ISO vs RHP since last season. That’s not enough of a constraint to limit their overall value in this spot, considering what lefties have done to Folty. Should Alex Kirilloff (90 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP) find himself in the top half of the order, he’d have some value too in a lineup with an implied run line of 4.75, though he costs a bit more on either site. Put simply, anyone who bats left-handed and finds themselves in the top half of the Minnesota lineup tonight, players should want a piece of.