DFS Alerts
The Top Value Bat in the Middle of a Top Projected Offense
Hoping to catch lightning in a bottle, the Braves have inserted Abraham Almonte into the cleanup spot, which delights daily fantasy players everywhere, as he’s now smack in the middle of a high powered offense in a high run scoring environment and is within $100 of $2.5K on either site. Almonte has rewarded the Braves with a 175 wRC+ since being recalled. The opposition for the Braves tonight will be Carlos Martinez, who has a bit of a reverse split since last season with RHBs above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA, but LHBs owning a .342 xwOBA as well, according to Statcast. The Braves are one of several offenses near the top of the board above five implied runs tonight, but the inclusion of Almonte in the top half of the order allows players to more easily stack Ronald Acuna (164 wRC+, .334 ISO vs RHP since 2020), Freddie Freeman (176 wRC+, .305 ISO) and Ozzie Albies (110 wRC+, .218 ISO) as well. Every batter in the projected lineup for the Braves exceeds a 100 wRC+ and .175 ISO vs RHP since last season. Each of the first six are above a 125 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall.
These Are The Bullpens You Want to Attack on Friday
If you’re looking to attack the worst bullpen in the majors, that would be the Cincinnati Reds, who certainly didn’t acquit themselves very well behind Wade Miley in San Diego last night. Over the last 30 days, they have a major league worst 6.82 ERA and 5.10 FIP. They will be backing Tony Santillan, making his second major league start tonight. Though Santillan faced 25 batters and threw 97 pitches in his major league debut that didn’t even get him through five innings with four walks and five strikeouts against the Rockies. He isn’t an extremely well regarded prospect (40+ FV grade via Fangraphs), but popped up on radars striking out 34.4% in 32.1 AAA innings this year. He had just a 9.3 SwStr% and 48 F-Strike% in his debut. Fernando Tatis Jr. has a 174 wRC+ and .363 ISO vs RHP since 2020 and a 206 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Another bullpen players may want to attack is in Baltimore, where the relief corps for the O’s have a 6.19 ERA and 4.36 FIP over the last month. Bruce Zimmermann hasn’t completed six innings since his second start of the season, but does have a respectable 4.25 ERA and 4.27 FIP over 29.2 innings since being recalled and that’s with a 16.7 K-BB%. However, he is left-handed and will be facing an almost entirely right-handed lineup with power. RHBs have a .353 wOBA and .388 xwOBA against Zimmermann. Randal Grichuk (150 wRC+, .272 ISO vs LHP since 2020) costs less than $4K on DraftKings. Both the Padres and Blue Jays exceed implied runs with Toronto owning the highest team total on the board outside Coors (5.61).
High Risk/Reward GPP Arms
The most interesting pitchers in potentially high upside spots tonight include Alex Cobb (vs Tigers), Jose Berrios (at Rangers) and Yusei Kikuchi (vs Rays). Overall, Cobb has a 28 K%, 57.7 GB% and 87.7 mph EV. Even with 2.6% Barrels/BBE, a 3.42 xERA is his worst estimator. This is the profile of an All-Star. Yet, with a 4.98 ERA, he’s been incredibly inconsistent. He’s gone beyond five innings in just four of nine starts, allowed fewer than three runs just three times and struck out fewer than five four times. The Tigers have a 91 wRC+ and 26.9 K% vs RHP. If we favor estimators over ERA, Cobb is a solid value, though higher risk than some might like.
Berrios may be the most inconsistent pitcher in the league, which sometimes makes him a solid GPP piece if you can embrace the risk. The overall package is a 26 K% and 6.4 BB%, but estimators range widly from a 3.40 xFIP to a 4.37 xERA (10.2% Barrels/BBE). He has as many outings allowing four runs (four) as quality starts. He’s struck out eight or more four times, but five or fewer five times. The Rangers offer a 90 wRC+ and 26.1 K%. Three of the first four batters in the projected lineup exceed a 27 K% vs RHP since 2020.
Kikuchi has a 3.67 ERA that nearly matches his 3.71 SIERA and a 51.6 GB% has helped him avoid the full brunt of a 91.2 mph EV, though a 23.6 HR/FB (4.40 FIP) balances out a .228 BABIP. Simply, what makes him attractive is Tampa Bay’s 28.7 K% vs LHP. If you’re in need of a sub-$7K SP2 on DraftKings, Caleb Smith has a 27.1 K% and the Dodgers have just a 97 wRC+ and 24.2 K% vs LHP. Of course, there are issues when it comes to walks and power, which is why he’s so cheap with an elevated strikeout rate. Jurickson Kowar, Tony Santillan and Zach Thompson are guys who struck out the world at AAA for about a month, but are in tough spots without their minor league success translating to major league success yet. Kowar and Thompson have not been confirmed yet.
Issues Facing All of Tonight's Top Pitchers
On a full Friday slate, four pitchers reach the $10K price point on either site with Trevor Bauer and Carlos Rodon doing so on both. Your top pitcher tonight, is the least expensive of the four on FanDuel ($9.5K) and only third most expensive on DraftKings ($10.2K). That’s because the top strikeout rate on the board (41.5%) is at Coors tonight. In fact, Corbin Burnes’ 18.4 SwStr% is higher than some strikeout rates tonight. He has allowed some runs in a few outings recently, but the Brewers are beginning to push him with more than 90 pitches in five straight starts. His 2.27 ERA is actually ABOVE all his estimators! All are below two. The Rockies have a board low 69 wRC+ vs RHP (10.3 HR/FB). Four of eight in the projected lineup exceed a 26 K%. Coors should keep his ownership reasonable.
Behind Burnes, Bauer, Rodon and Robbie Ray run fairly closely, the latter two with difficult matchups. Bauer has thrown at least 90 pitches in every game this year and gone beyond 100 in eight of his last 10, so workload is not at all in question, but even before he lost his spin, some issues have begun to become apparent. He’s walked four in four of his last eight starts, he’s allowed six home runs over his last four starts and the strikeout rate stands at 21.3% over that span. He still has a 2.64 ERA, but it’s now well below all of his estimators (.211 BABIP, 83.1 LOB%). The Diamondbacks have an 83 wRC+ vs RHP and may not be able to win on the road, but have a 103 wRC+ at home and don’t strike out a ton. The worst strikeout rate vs RHP since 2020 in the projected Arizona lineup is 25.7% with just two above 23%.
Rodon owns the second highest strikeout rate on the slate (37.2%) with at least eight in each of his last five starts. The 1.89 ERA may not seem sustainable (.243 BABIP, 87.5 LOB%), but a 3.21 DRA is his only estimator above three. He visits Houston (126 wRC+ at home and vs LHP). He may not have to deal with Bregman, which puts three batters in the projected lineup above a 29 K% vs LHP since 2020, but there are also four below 18%. Ray has solved his control issues (6.3 BB%), while maintaining an elite strikeout rate (32.1%, 16.5 SwStr%) with increased velocity this season, but hard contact issues still remain (23.9 HR/FB, 92 mph EV, 11.4% Barrels/BBE). Still, a 4.31 FIP is his only estimator above four. The problem he runs into in Baltimore, is that the Orioles have been really good against LHP (118 wRC+, 21.2 K%, 15.3 HR/FB). Don’t worry about Coors because the other high priced pitchers may have bigger problems.
Cheap, Middle of the Order Lefty Mashing Catcher
The Minnesota lineup must be a bit light when Ryan Jeffers, who couldn’t hold a major league job in May, is projected to be hitting smack in the middle of it, but then you have to do a double take when you see that he has a 174 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs LHP in his career. In fact, the Minnesota lineup doesn’t appear to be light at all with five projected batters above a 130 wRC+ and at least a .200 ISO vs LHP since 2020 and each of the first seven in the projected lineup at a 100 wRC+ or better over the last 30 days overall. At less than $3K, Jeffers might be the top value on the board and gives players the ability to afford the expensive bats in a Twins’ stack like Nelson Cruz (226 wRC+, .321 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (132 wRC+, .224 ISO). All of Justus Sheffield’s estimators are 4.75 or higher with 10.8% of his contact being barreled. In addition, RHBs have a .339 wOBA and .354 xwOBA against him since last year, according to Statcast. The Twins are tied for the fourth highest implied run line on the board (4.5).
Two Top Bats in an Environmentally Aided Smash Spot
Garrett Richards has just a 19.7 K% and 8.7 K-BB%. An 8.2 HR/FB and .349 BABIP dump his 4.09 ERA between a 3.83 FIP and additional estimators much higher. Aside from a three start stretch where he was pumping strikes at the beginning of May, he has struggled for the majority of the season. Since last year, Richards has a 43 point split by actual wOBA, but Statcast narrows the gap to three points with batters from either side of the plate within two points of a .345 xwOBA against him. Under hitter friendly conditions in a park that may be a more positive run environment than Fenway, Richards will have to face a tough Atlanta offense (111 wRC+, 18.8 HR/FB at home), making Freddie Freeman (175 wRC+, .302 ISO vs RHP since 2020) and Ronald Acuna (161 wRC+, .336 ISO) potentially the two top bats on the board. The first seven batters in the projected lineup all exceed a 100 wRC+ and .160 ISO vs RHP since 2020 and the first six all exceed a 110 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. Acuna and Freeman are each above a 150 wRC+ and .290 ISO at home since last year as well. As one of only two offenses above five implied runs (5.19) it’s hard to find any reason not to love this Atlanta offense tonight.
Attack One of the Worst Pens on the Slate with Top Bats & Value Bats
Keegan Akin has struck out just 10 of 58 batters in his three starts with only one-third of his contact on the ground. Since last season, RHBs have had some success against him (.326 wOBA, .317 xwOBA) and despite Cleveland’s placement in the middle of the board with 4.19 implied runs, you’d also be attacking one of the worst bullpens on the slate (Orioles bullpen 6.29 ERA, 4.45 FIP last 30 days). While Jose Ramirez (176 wRC+, .301 ISO vs LHP since 2020) is one of the most expensive bats on the board and Cesar Hernandez (100 wRC+, .199 ISO) has seen his price increase with some power, Harold Ramirez (138 wRC+, .220 ISO) is projected to bat cleanup and could be one of the top value bats on the slate for less than $3K on either site. The hottest bat in the lineup has been Amed Rosario (155 wRC+ last 30 days), who’s also fairly affordable, costing less than $4K on either site.
Low Priced Pitching Alternatives/Compliments For Both Sites
High upside matchups, as determined by opposing team strikeout rates, on tonight’s slate belong to Bailey Ober (at Mariners), Ian Anderson (vs Red Sox) and Justus Sheffield (vs Twins). Unfortunately, a lot of the better matchups belong to afternoon slate or top of the board pitchers. We may not find much here. While five of nine projected Twins have a 25 K% or higher against LHP since 2020, the team still has a 112 wRC+ and 17.5 HR/FB against southpaws this year and Sheffield doesn’t have enough upside to be rosterable here. To add to his woes, which see a 4.75 xFIP as his best estimator, his velocity dropped off a mile per hour last time out, as he lasted just four innings against the Tigers and allowed two home runs. He has just three more strikeouts than walks over his last five starts and has allowed 10.8% Barrrels/BBE this year.
The Red Sox are not a team we’re expecting to see on this list, but we’re also stretching things a bit today, while realizing the Sox lose the DH in Atlanta, so five of eight projected batters (along with the pitcher’s spot) exceed a 25.5 K% vs RHP since 2020. Anderson’s 15.6 K-BB% isn’t much above league average, hence the 3.91 SIERA. Even with a favorable contact profile that includes an 87.1 mph EV and 53.8 GB%, his 3.87 xERA isn’t much better. While those are the worst of his estimators, all are at least slightly above his 3.26 ERA. Anderson is a marginal choice for $8K or less here, perhaps not as good as perceived, but also potentially in a better matchup than perceived as well.
Bailey Ober is the most interesting arm here. has acquitted himself well in three starts against the White Sox, Royals and Astros, striking out 15 of 57 batters (seven of them against the Astros last time out) with just two walks. He’s also allowed three home runs with just a 21.1 GB%, 90.6 mph EV and 9.7 SwStr%. Scouting reports suggest a future in the bullpen with his biggest assets being his size and funky delivery. This is less about him though and more about the matchup and cost. The Mariners have a 90 wRC+ and 26.2 K% vs RHP. While only three batters in the projected Seattle lineup exceed a 24 K% vs RHP since last year, all three also exceed a 30 K%. Ober may be the ideal SP2 punt play on DraftKings ($4.6K) on a board where 25% of the arms cost $9.6K or more.
FanDuel pitchers could also consider Merrill Kelly in San Francisco. With only one projected batter above a 24.2 K% vs RHP since 2020, it doesn’t seem like a favorable spot and the Giants do have a 102 wRC+ vs RHP this year, but also have a 26.5 K% vs RHP in 2021. Kelly costs just $6.4K on FD and has struck out at least six in six of his last eight starts. As a matter of fact, he’s struck out exactly six in five of those with a 12 K outlier against the Dodgers. His season rate still sits at a below average 21.2% (9.0 SwStr%), though he’s walked just 6.5% and has estimators right around four. The Diamondbacks are willing to let Kelly eat innings too. He’s recorded sixth inning outs in 10 of 13 starts.
Is the High Priced Arm You Want Facing a Top Offense Tonight?
Despite a mere eight game slate on Wednesday night, three pitchers reach the $10K price point on both sites, along with Zack Wheeler on just FanDuel. Ironically, Wheeler, the cheapest of the four, may be the least flawed tonight. The only thing that can stop Jacob deGrom seems to be Jacob deGrom. He hasn’t allowed a run over his last three starts, but has only faced 100 batters since the start of May (striking out 44 of them). He was removed from his last start due to elbow tendonitis, but still struck out 10 of the 18 Padres he faced. His 46.2 K% and 21.2 SwStr% easily lead the slate, league and universe. The Cubs (97 wRC+, 25.5 K% vs RHP) could be considered a high upside matchup, but deGrom’s workload is in question. He could go merely five innings with 70 pitches and still strike out 10, but he’s a risk when paying $11K or more. If healthy, there’s no question he’s the top pitcher on the slate and still potentially a decent value even at his current exorbitant price.
Everyone noticed that Gerrit Cole allowed five runs to the Rangers as his spin rate dropped, but he still struck out seven of 22 batters. Last time out, he allowed just two runs to the Twins with nine strikeouts, but actually had his second lowest swinging strike rate of the season (8.5%) and allowed multiple home runs for just the third time this season. His 36.7 K% is the second highest on the board behind deGrom, but how much of that pitcher are we getting right now? The Blue Jays also have a 113 wRC+, 16.8 HR/FB and 22.8 K% vs RHP. Only one batter in the projected Toronto lineup exceeds a 24.5 K% vs RHP since last season. Cole may best serve as a GPP leverage play tonight.
The pitching matchup of the day takes place at Dodger Stadium where Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers host Zack Wheeler and friends. The expected absence of Bryce Harper hurts less against Kershaw, a lefty, though it’s still not ideal. The Phillies have a 101 wRC+ and 14.9 HR/FB vs LHP. Although they also have a 27.3 K% against lefties this year, only one of seven batters with more than six PAs in the projected lineup has a strikeout rate above 24.5% against southpaws since last year. Kershaw has the second highest swinging strike rate on the board (16.4%) and has shown the ability to still be able to dominate in any given outing this year, but has also thrown in a few clunkers, allowing five earned runs on four different occasions. He still has a 24.7 K-BB% with estimators barely on either side of three, all below his 3.39 ERA (69.6 LOB%), allowing just 6.0% Barrels/BBE. Wheeler’s had double digit strikeouts in four of his last five games (41.2%), as he ramps up his slider usage and has gone at least seven innings in eight of his last nine. All of his estimators are now below three with a 2.84 SIERA being the worst of them. He continues to be a great contact manager (86.2 mph EV), but now has an elite strikeout rate (32.4%) to add to it. While the Dodgers have a 125 wRC+ at home and 119 wRC+ vs RHP, this is a lineup without Seager, Bellinger or Muncy. Matt Beaty is projected to bat cleanup. Let’s boldy go ahead and call Wheeler the second best pitcher on the slate tonight and potentially the top high priced choice, depending on how much risk you’re willing to embrace with deGrom’s workload.
Opposing Injuries Increase This Pitcher's Value
One of the first pitchers you’re generally going to cross off your list of rosterables is a RHP facing the Dodgers. However, the projected lineup for the Dodgers includes only three LHBs and their names are not Seager, Bellinger and Muncy, but rather Lux, McKinstry and Beaty. All have at least a 99 wRC+ vs RHP since 2020, but we’re now talking about a very different looking lineup with potentially five RHBs. That works out just fine for Zach Eflin, who has a rather large split of over 50 points since last season (LHBs .359 wOBA, RHBs .293). Essentially, Eflin costs less than $8.5K with a park upgrade and is likely facing a less potent lineup than expected. Eflin has a 24.7 K% with a matching 3.89 ERA and DRA, but no other estimators above three and a half. The current state of the Dodger lineup may make Eflin one of the unexpected better pitching values on the board.
A Surprisingly Potent and Cheap Bat Tonight
The Cubs have the best bullpen in baseball over the last 30 days by either ERA (1.17) or FIP (2.92) and Alec Mills is not likely to go deep into this game, so we don’t want to go over-board with Mets’ bats even though they have a 4.61 implied run line that ranks them seventh on the board tonight. While LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within two points of .390 against Mills since last year, the projected Mets’ lineup includes just two LHBs who have a wRC+ above 100 and ISO above .200 against RHP since last year. One of them, no surprise, is Dominic Smith (124 wRC+, .215 ISO). The other, projects to bat fifth, which may get him two shots and Mills, and is one of the cheapest bats on the board. Billy McKinney has a 113 wRC+ and .255 ISO vs RHP and a 167 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall. McKinney costs less than $3K on either site, potentially making him one of the better values on the board. Additionally, switch hitters Jonathan Villar (94 wRC+, .121 ISO) and Francisco Lindor (93 wRC+, .152 ISO) project to bat atop the order tonight. Both have a wRC+ above 100 over the last 30 days and are probably better than their numbers against RHP since last season suggest.
RHBs Have Exceeded a .380 wOBA & xwOBA Against This Pitcher Since 2020
Things didn’t work out for the Pirates last night against Jon Lester and facing another Washington lefty tonight, they have a 3.69 implied run line that’s fourth lowest on the board, but the numbers still insist Pittsburgh bats may have some value tonight. The first reason is that RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA exceeding .380 against Patrick Corbin since the start of the 2020 season. Corbin saw his velocity climb in May, but it’s been slowly sliding back downward and so are the results. He’s allowed 18 runs over his last 26 innings with just 19 strikeouts and 12 walks. The second reason is that despite a team 78 wRC+ vs LHP this season, the projected Pittsburgh lineup includes four batters who exceed a 120 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs LHP since last season, the star among them Ke’Bryan Hayes (249 wRC+, .371 ISO) in a group that also includes Bryan Reynolds, Jacob Stallings and Erik Gonzalez. Next, Hayes is the only batter in the group or projected lineup overall who exceeds a $4K price tag on DK or $3K cost on FD. Lastly, Washington is one of the more positive run environments in the league and a certain upgrade over Pittsburgh for RH Pirates. This may not be a play you want to make, especially after last night’s poor results in a somewhat similar spot, but the numbers suggest Pittsburgh bats have some value again tonight.
Cheap RH Power with a Park Ugrade
A recent interview with Atlanta pitching coach Rick Kranitz suggested that the addition of a slider has evolved Tucker Davidson to the next level of his game and in fact, he’s thrown that pitch exactly 100 times in 250 pitches this year (40%) with Statcast confirming a sub-.225 wOBA against LHBs since last year (19.2 innings). However, Statcast also suggests he may have more issues with RHBs than is immediately apparent (.286 wOBA, .403 xwOBA) and in a dangerous park like Atlanta, cheap RH power in the Boston lineup could be some of the better values or even punt plays on the board. In fact, Statcast Park Factors suggest that Atlanta is much friendlier to RH power (101 HR Factor) than Fenway (86 HR Factor) We’re talking about Hunter Renfroe (139 wRC+, .265 ISO vs LHP since 2020) and Bobby Dalbec (143 wRC+, .337 ISO). The former costs just $2.5K on FanDuel, while the latter is $2.3K or less on either site. The lack of the DH In an NL park should move both players up a spot in the lineup that is just inside the top third of the board at 4.5 implied runs tonight.
The Same Number of Barrels as Strikeouts
The San Diego Padres have an outrageous 7.14 implied run line, a full two runs above any other team on the board. The easy answers there are Coors and Chi Chi Rodriguez. Although, it is interesting that the Padres have the lowest team wRC+ in the league over the last seven days (52). The Cleveland offense has just an 88 wRC+ vs RHP, but are the only other team above five implied runs because Matt Harvey has allowed 32 runs and seven home runs over his last 19.2 innings. These are the two most obvious spots on the board tonight.
Crawl down another seven or eight spots and you’ll find the Cincinnati Reds tied (4.5) tied with teams like the Braves and Red Sox in Atlanta, as well as the team they are facing in Milwaukee tonight and the question has to be: why? It’s hard to understand how a team in contention is still throwing Brett Anderson out there every fifth game. He still gets more than half his contact on the ground (52.8%), but his Barrels/BBE (14.4%, 92.7 mph EV) is higher than his strikeout rate (11.5%). In fact, he has exactly as many barrels as strikeouts (21 each)! When you filter the Daily Matchups on Baseball Savant for 15 PAs and then sort by highest xwOBA, the top two names on the board are Nick Castellanos (.542 xwOBA, 21 PAs) and Eugenio Suarez (.466 xwOBA, 23 PAs) against Anderson. With a 128 wRC+ and .310 ISO vs LHP since 2020 and a 191 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall, Castellanos is one of the top bats on the board outside Coors tonight. RHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Anderson since last year. Tyler Stephenson (147 wRC+, .347 ISO vs LHP since 2020) costs just $2.6K on FanDuel, where he may be one of the top values. Against Brett Anderson, where batters have an equal likelihood of barreling or striking out, the Cincinnati offense would appear to be greatly under-valued.
A Couple of Lineups with More Strikeouts Than You Think
The most interesting pitchers in potentially high upside spots include Eduardo Rodriguez (at Braves), Jordan Montgomery (at Blue Jays), Kwang-hyun Kim (vs Marlins), Luis Castillo (at Brewers) and Mike Minor (vs Tigers), particularly because you wouldn’t expect to see a couple of these spots on this list. Covering the most obvious pitchers first, the Tigers have a 75 wRC+ and 29.9 K% vs LHP, which makes a slightly above average pitcher (26.6 K%, 7.9 BB%, 37.1 GB%, 88.4 mph EV, 10.2% Barrels/BBE, 3.84 SIERA, 3.99 xERA) fairly desirable in this spot. He’s struck out 17 of the 49 Tigers he’s faced this year. Minor is within $200 of $9K on either site and isn’t far removed from top overall pitcher consideration tonight. The regression monster has finally caught up to Kim, who has a 4.84 ERA, 5.08 FIP and 4.64 FIP over his last five starts, but he costs less than $7.5K at home against a Miami offense with an 89 wRC+ and 20.9 K-BB% vs LHP. He’s usable, if not especially coveted tonight.
Players could be thrown off Castillo’s trail, even in a great spot (Brewers 83 wRC+, 25.9 K% vs RHP) for obvious reasons. His ERA is above six and he’s completed six innings just twice this year. However, more optimistically, over his last five starts, Castillo has a 26.7 K% and 13.4 SwStr% with nearly half his contact on the ground (48.5%) and just an 84.7 mph EV. Despite also having a .246 BABIP over that span, he has a 62.9 LOB% and 4.73 ERA. While he’s struck out more than five in just two of those games (and just three time this year), his swinging strike rate has been above 11% in four of five starts. It seems like Castillo may be starting to find his footing and could have some value for $8K or less tonight.
The Braves and Blue Jays are generally not teams you would think of as favorable matchups for pitchers. The Braves have a 102 wRC+ and 20.2 HR/FB vs LHP, while the Blue Jays have a 107 wRC+ and 14.9 HR/FB against southpaws. However, a quick peak at Plate IQ shows the projected Atlanta lineup tonight includes three batters above a 29 K% vs LHP since 2020 and the Toronto lineup with six batters above a 26 K%. Montgomery has a 24.3 K% (12.5 SwStr%) with a 3.99 ERA that runs fairly closely to most estimators (3.76 SIERA, 3.88 xERA). He’s a good pitcher at a marginal price ($7.6K on DK, $7.5K on FD) in a dangerous spot, but with more upside than suspected. If you believe in ERA estimators and regression, perhaps nobody in the league has more positive regression headed his way than Rodriguez. His 6.03 ERA is more than two runs above all of his non-DRA estimators. He’s struck out 25.8% of the batters he’s faced with a career best 6.3 BB% and isn’t even being hit that hard (88.1 mph EV, 7.7% Barrels/BBE). He had a .370 BABIP and has stranded just 64.1% of his runners. At $6.4K on FanDuel, Eduardo Rodriguez could be one of the top values on the board. At $7.8K on DraftKings, he’s a great GPP SP2 if the ERA is scaring players off.