DFS Alerts
Lucas Giolito has a great matchup and has struck out at least eight in six of seven starts
Lucas Giolito has allowed seven runs (five earned) in 11 innings since his no-hitter, but still striking out 17 of 45 batters. He’s struck out at least eight in six of seven starts. He’s completed six innings with two runs or less in five of his nine starts. His 3.29 ERA is actually above all of his estimators, the worst of which is a 3.21 SIERA. He may also have the highest upside matchup on the board tonight. The Tigers have an absurd 28.3 K% vs RHP this year. No other team has a split above 26.3% tonight. Their 6.6 BB% against RHP is also the third lowest split on the board. On FanDuel, Giolito is $800 less than Bieber, who has weather concerns and a much tougher matchup with the Twins. Lucas Giolito is probably your top pitcher tonight.
Salary Matters Tonight
If you’re looking to either load up on the Coors Field game or go double aces tonight on DK, you’ll need some value. Luckily, there are again a tremendous number of hitters under the $3K mark on DK. If Avisail Garcia is near the top of lineup tonight against Jon Lester, he makes for an easy play at just $2,700. Lester has been downright horrendous against righties this season with a 15.6% K rate and 43% hard hits allowed. Garcia is an above average hitter against lefties with line drives and hard hits, and plenty of patience to make Lester work. I’d be considering him at $3,500+, and at this price, he fits in all formats.
The Stars At Night Are Big And Bright
Deep in the heart of Texas, the Oakland A’s are way underpriced on FD tonight. I think we may have to worry about tournament ownership here, but at least in primary lineups, it’s overthinking not to start with the power of Matt Olson with Jordan Lyles currently looking like one of the worst starters in all of baseball and a bottom of the barrel bullpen behind him.
Play An Ace
Shane Bieber leads all major league starters this season with an extreme 42.9% strikeout rate, with no fewer than 8 K’s in any start. Over the past few weeks, Lucas Giolito has been every bit as good as Bieber with a silly 43:3 K:BB ratio in his last four starts. The matchup is far better for Giolito tonight, so I’ll lean his way, but both of these aces have endless upside, and I will be going out of my way to play both as often as possible. It’s even quite possible to pair them together on DK tonight.
Other tagged players: Lucas Giolito Friday's Clear SP1
We have a lot of ace pitchers on the mound tonight, but Giolito stands out as the easy top choice for optimal lineups. He has drastically improved over the last two seasons and now owns a 2.97 xFIP and 35% strikeout rate this season. He also draws a great matchup against a Tigers team that strikes out at an absurd clip against RHP. Giolito is an elite option in all formats.
High Upside GPP Stack
If you sort the hitters by PlateIQ score today, Matt Olson and Tommy LaStella have the two best scores on the board. That is impressive on a slate that includes the Rockies playing at home against a mediocre pitcher. I really like the A’s as a tournament stack this evening with their power bats and upside potential. Olson, LaStella, and Semien are your highest upside trio.
Other tagged players: Tommy La Stella, Marcus Semien Cheap live arm with the wind at his back
Adbert Alzolay has struck out 12 of 38 batters. He struck out 32.3% in 65.1 AAA innings last year. That’s not the problem. It’s the double digit walk rate that’s followed him from AAA to the majors last year and again so far this year (18.4%). The 25 year-old was recently rated the team’s fifth best prospect by Fangraphs with a fastball/curveball combo that’s been called the system’s best two pitch mix. Aside from recent control issues, its’ been staying on the field that’s been Alzolay’s other biggest issue, profiling as a potential mid-rotation piece with more durability and health. The Reds have a 12 BB% and 18.9 HR/FB vs RHP that would normally spell trouble here, but considering the pitcher friendly wind effects in play at Wrigley again tonight, daily fantasy players might focus more on their 24.8 K% vs RHP. With the winds potentially suppressing power, the walks may not be as dangerous. Considering a pitching deficient six game slate, why not take a shot at an upside arm for just $5.7K on FanDuel?
Madison Bumgarner has allowed 19.4% Barrels/BBE
Madison Bumgarner returned from a month long IL stint to strike out just two of 17 Giants, allowing as many HRs. He’s faced 100 batters this season with 15 strikeouts, nine walks and nine HRs. While his 88.7 mph average velocity upon return was a season high, that’s still a full three mph below where he sat last year. Fourteen of his 72 batted balls have been barreled (19.4%) with just 18 ground balls (25%). None of this is any good and it’s unlikely the Dodgers are the remedy. The Dodgers haven’t been as good against LHP (93 wRC+, 10.4 HR/FB), but still have just a 9.0 K-BB% against them, while the lineup still contains some quality RHBs. Adding to his woes, Bumgarner has a nearly 100 point platoon split since last season that sees RHBs owing a .333 wOBA and .224 ISO against him. AJ Pollock (.380 wOBA, .227 ISO vs LHP since 2019) is a top value on this six game slate, costing exactly $3K on FanDuel. He should be in the middle of all the action in the lineup with tonight’s top implied run line (5.81).
Fernando Tatis has a career .300 ISO vs RHP
Trevor Cahill has struck out 20 of 72 batters faced this season, but with a just a 10.1 SwStr% and eight of those coming in a 20 batter span in one start. Three consecutive starts against the struggling Diamondbacks have resulted in 11.1 innings with four runs, but six walks. In fact, Cahill has a 15.3 BB% with a 2.65 ERA predicated on a .184 BABIP and 87.9 LOB%. A 3.28 xERA that takes into account an 87.1 mph EV is his only estimator below four. Since last season, batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 wOBA and .220 ISO against Cahill. Daily fantasy players should be loading up on hard hitting Padres again (23.5 HR/FB at home, 20.8 K% and 20.7 HR/FB vs RHP). Fernando Tatis (.399 wOBA, .300 ISO career vs RHP) could be the overall bat tonight. He has a 96.2 mph EV this year with 24% Barrels/BBE.
Min Priced Bat with Pop
So far in the majors Chisholms numbers are nothing to write home about, but he has gotten fairly unlucky with a .154 BABIP. Looking at his minor league numbers he wasn’t a bad bat with 18 HR’s in 89 games in AA last season leading to a .223 ISO and .335 wOBA. Even if he isn’t close to those numbers in the majors, he’s priced at the minimum today on DK going up against a moderately chalky pitcher. If you need to save some salary today, you won’t find a better guy to do so with than Chisholm.
Weather dictated top pitching spot
Sonny Gray was shelled for six runs by the Cardinals last time out as he walked three and struck out just one of the 10 batters he faced. The 11.2 SwStr% still does not fully support a 31.6 K% and we’ve seen that strikeout rate drop to a more reasonable 25.6% over the last 30 days. But now his walk rate is up to 10.2% as well, while the 44.5 GB% is the first time he’s ever had a rate below 50%. That’s fine if he’s sacrificing ground balls for strikeouts, but he didn’t have to do so last year. A 3.95 xERA that accounts for his 86.9 mph EV and 4.0% Barrels/BBE is still his worst estimator, so it’s not as if he’s not pitching well, but his 2.87 ERA last year came with a .255 BABIP and 79.7 LOB%, so perhaps a bit of regression should not be unexpected. Gray will also be working with a new catcher tonight and face a Cubs’ offense with a 102 wRC+ and 20.5 HR/FB vs RHP. All of that being said, it’s another pitcher friendly night at Wrigley, which should suppress some of that power, while the Cubs also have strikeout tendencies against RHP (26.3%). With Gerrit Cole having weather concerns tonight (and some hard contact issues of his own), Gray may be the top pitcher on the board tonight with a price tag of $10.1K on FanDuel.
Super Value OF in a decent spot
While Arrieta has been a decent real life pitcher this season he has struggled against lefties all season long owning a .343 wOBA and .224 ISO. Dickerson is bottom barrel priced over on DK at 3k and will likely be leading off today. He owns a good flyball rate of 38.1% against RHP this season to go along with a 12.5% K rate so the ball should be put in play a lot against an extreme GB pitcher with low Ks vs lefties like Arrieta. While I don’t know if Dickerson can take the ball out of the park in Miami, I think that he can get a few hits which will easily pay off his tiny price tag.
Way too Cheap Outfielder
While Alcantara has been lights out this season vs righties and McCutchen has been horrible against RHP this year, McCutchen is a fantastic play at his price tag today. This season, he sits at a tiny .094 ISO and .282 wOBA, but if you look at the underlying numbers with a 38.5 hard hit rate, 35.9% FB%, 23.1% LD%, and 15.7% K rate, they are similar to last season where he owned a .226 ISO and .356 wOBA. Add in that the Marlins bullpen is absolutely horrible and he will likely get a few ABs later in the game against the bad bullpen arms and should easily pay off his tiny pricetag.
Way too Cheap on Yahoo, and underpriced on DK
This will likely be the chalkiest play over on Yahoo and possibly the chalkiest on all sites today because of the lack of elite options with the possible NYY postponement. Paddack draws a matchup against the Giants which isn’t the easiest spot of the slate, but Paddack has been good all season long sitting at a 3.71 xFIP, 24.2% K rate, and a tiny 4.5% walk rate. In terms of cash, Paddack is probably your SP1 or SP2, but I will preface by saying while Paddack is a fantastic point per dollar play, but a great leverage play in big field tournaments is playing the Giants lefties today.
The DK value pitcher
While I generally hate playing Arrieta today’s slate for pitching is kind of ugly and over on DK the low priced options really aren’t great, so Arrieta is the best of the bunch. He draws a matchup against the Marlins today in Miami which is one of the best matchups and one of the best ballparks for a pitcher. While Arrieta isn’t a great fantasy pitcher, he is a decent real life pitcher and is near elite at getting ground balls sitting at a 50% clip on the season. The Marlins on the otherhand are a slightly above average K rate team with a 22% k rate in their projected lineup. While there’s always a chance that they get a bomb or two off Arrieta, the most likely outcome of this game is Arrieta going 6 innings and giving up a run or 2 with 4-6 Ks which will likely get it done on this slate.