DFS Alerts
Josh Donaldson scratched Sunday; Adeiny Hechavarria replaces
Donaldson has been scratched from the Atlanta Braves original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the New York Mets due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Adeiny Hechavarria, who will now play third base and slot into the fifth spot in the order, which bumps Nick Markakis up to fifth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Braves lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Noah Syndergaard on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Mark Bowman via Twitter Other tagged players: Adeiny Hechavarria
Red Sox in a great spot vs. Shepherd
Despite having nothing to play for, the Red Sox will put all of their healthy starters in the lineup this afternoon vs. Chandler Shepherd. Shepherd posted a 10+ ERA over 30 innings in AAA for the Red Sox this year before eventually being picked up by the Orioles where he posted a 4.60 ERA / 4.52 xFIP over 72 innings in AAA. Projection systems have him pegged as a 5-6 ERA guy in the majors. Mookie Betts (.409 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Rafael Devers (.385), JD Martinez (.368), Mitch Moreland (.363), Xander Bogaerts (.349), Jackie Bradley Jr. (.342), Christian Vazquez (.311) and Brock Holt (.338) are all in play this afternoon vs. Shepherd. Betts has been their hottest hitter over the past 2 weeks with a .421 xwOBA. On Fanduel, all Sox bats are available under $4k besides Betts and Martinez. Pricing is a bit tighter on Draftkings as all batters mentioned above are $4.6k or more besides Holt ($3.5k). The Red Sox currently have a healthy 6.43 implied total vs. Shepherd and the O’s.
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley
Spencer Turnbull is a nice value arm vs. White Sox
Turnbull has quietly put up a serviceable season in Detroit, posting a 4.59 ERA / 4.06 FIP with a 12.8% K-BB, 1.46 WHIP, 48.1% GB rate and 10.6% SwStr. He’s arguably shown a bit of improvement over the past 30 days despite an inflated 6.85 ERA with a 2.86 FIP / 3.97 xFIP and 17.1% K-BB. Turnbull will face a White Sox lineup that has just an 88 wRC+ and a massive 26.3% K rate vs. RHP on the year, giving him some nice upside. The White Sox lineup today will have just 4 batters who have an xwOBA above .325 on the year. With a decent amount of options pitching options on this slate, Turnbull is definitely more of a GPP option than cash, and does project to see decently low ownership. He’ll have an affordable price of $7400 on Draftkings and an even cheaper $6400 price tag on Fanduel this afternoon. Turnbull will also have the benefit of a pitcher friendly umpire in Gabe Morales calling balls and strikes.
Flaherty is in a great spot at home vs. depleted Cubs lineup this afternoon
Jack Flaherty has a number of positive factors working for him today vs. the Cubs. For one, he’s been one of (if not the best) the best pitchers in baseball over the past few months: since July 7th, Flaherty has posted a ridiculous 1 ERA / 2.35 FIP, 27.5% K-BB and .191 wOBA allowed. Flaherty has also been much better in home starts over the course of his career with a 2.92 ERA / 3.62 FIP, 23.3% K-BB, 0.93 WHIP and .254 wOBA allowed compared to a 3.56 ERA / 3.90 FIP, 18.8% K-BB, 1.18 WHIP and .291 wOBA allowed. Flaherty gets a matchup with a Cubs team that is missing its four best hitters (Rizzo, Baez, Castellanos, Bryant) and has nothing to play for, while the Cardinals are trying to lock up their division. The Cubs lineup has just two batters with an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .335 on the year. Flaherty is way too cheap at just $9.8k on Draftkings and is a nice play on Fanduel as well even with a steeper $11k tag. The Cubs currently have just a 2.97 implied total vs. Flaherty and the Cards.
Motivation Angle Makes Him The SP1
This is an easy choice today. The Cardinals have everything to play for, while the Astros are unlikely to push Gerrit Cole in a meaningless game. St. Louis also needs innings out of Flaherty, as their bullpen has been taxed heavily and has also been ineffective this week. Flaherty has been ridiculous in the second half with a 0.97 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and 118/22 K/BB ratio in that span. He gets a matchup against the Cubs “B” squad today that will be without Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, and Castellanos. Although the Cardinals have lost the first two games of this series, look for Flaherty to right the ship today and help them clinch an NL Central title.
Top Hitter on the Slate
This is the perfect matchup for him. Even though it is a R/R matchup, you have a hitter in Hiura who has been better against RHP and a pitcher in Hoffman who has reverse splits, allowing numbers that are much worse to RHBs. The Brewers are still fighting for the division and should play their regulars today, as well. Hiura owns a .423 wOBA and a .321 ISO against RHP and is an elite option in this spot.
Victor Robles scratched Saturday; Gerardo Parra replaces
Robles has been scratched from the Washington Nationals original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers due to an illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Gerardo Parra, who will now play center field and slot directly into Robles’ vacated seventh spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Nationals lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Adam Plutko at home this afternoon.
As reported by: the Washington Nationals via Twitter Other tagged players: Gerardo Parra Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (knee) scratched Saturday; Brandon Drury replaces
Guerrero Jr. has been scratched from the Toronto Blue Jays original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays due to right knee soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Brandon Drury, who will now play third base and slot directly into Guerrero’s vacated fifth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Blue Jays lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Ryan Yarbrough at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Ben Nicholson-Smith via Twitter Other tagged players: Brandon Drury D-Backs in an intriguing spot vs. Garrett Richards
Richards has made two starts so far in 2019, totaling just 5 and 1/3 innings pitched between the two. He’s thrown just 144 innings since 2016 and made his debut earlier this month on the 16th after not appearing in an MLB game since July of the previous season. He’s unsurprisingly shaking off some rust and has posted a .374 xwOBA allowed so far in 27 batters faced. The D-Backs don’t have a great lineup, but they are in a good spot here and are very cheap across the industry. Alex Avila (.355 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Kevin Cron (.346), Jake Lamb (.333), Eduardo Escobar (.323), Nick Ahmed (.317), Josh Rojas (.317), Tim Locastro (.306) and Jarrod Dyson (.273) are all options in the D-Backs’ projected order. Lamb has been on fire with a .443 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks and somehow costs just $2.8k on Draftkings. Avila is another great value option at just $3.3k on DK. Besides Escobar, all D-Backs hitters are $4k or less on Draftkings and $2.9k or less on Fanduel despite a healthy 5.24 implied total tonight vs. Richards and the Padres.
Other tagged players: Jake Lamb, Kevin Cron, Alex Avila Matz has a 2.47 ERA and .288 xwOBA allowed in home starts this year
Overall, it’s been another middling season for Steven Matz (4.37 ERA / 4.29 xFIP, 14.9% K-BB, 1.35 WHIP) but given his wide home-away splits, we can always get a good idea of when to play him and when to fade. For his career, Matz has posted a 3.54 ERA / 3.62 xFIP, 16.8% K-BB and .299 xwOBA allowed in home starts, compared to a 4.67 ERA / 4.37 xFIP, 13% K-BB and .311 xwOBA allowed in road starts. Matz gets a matchup at home versus the Braves tonight, who do have a solid 101 wRC+ with a 23.6% K rate vs. LHP this year, though they will be without slugger Ronald Acuna. Matz’s price is what makes him most intriguing tonight, as he is just $7.4k on Draftkings and $7.7k on Fanduel. He projects as one of the better PTs/$ options on the board tonight across both major sites. The Braves currently have a 4.25 implied total vs. Matz and the Mets.
Brewers currently have 7.24 implied total in Coors
While many teams on the slate don’t have much to play for at this point, the Brewers are still gunning for the NL Central. They face Chi Chi Gonzalez tonight in Coors, who has a 5.68 ERA / 5.53 xFIP, 1.53 WHIP, 3.5% K-BB and 8.1% SwStr. This is even despite 7 of 11 starts, and 9 of 13 total appearances coming away from Coors. Chi Chi has posted a 6.41 ERA, .384 wOBA and 1.83 WHIP in 4 starts in Coors. Keston Hiura (.381 xwOBA vs. RHP this year) Yasmani Grandal (.342), Mike Moustakas (.332), Lorenzo Cain (.329), Eric Thames (.322), Trent Grisham (.310), Ben Gamel (.281) and Orlando Arcia (.265) are all in the projected lineup for the Brewers tonight. Hiura has been their hottest hitter with a .381 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, while Gamel has been the coldest with a .198 mark. On Draftkings all bats are $4.9k or more besides Gamel ($4k) and Arcia ($3.7k) who will likely be hitting in the 7-8 spots. There is a bit more flexibility on Fanduel, as only Moustakas and Hiura are above $4k.
Other tagged players: Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Yasmani Grandal, Eric Thames, Trent Grisham Phillies lineup has value and upside at home vs. Caleb Smith
Caleb Smith hasn’t been as effective in 2019, and over the past 30 days he has an ugly 6.49 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP and .343 xwOBA allowed. Smith is also much worse in road starts, as he’s allowed a 5.47 ERA / 5.39 FIP with a 15.4% K-BB and .339 xwOBA allowed in road starts, compared to a 3.53 ERA / 3.91 FIP, 18.2% K-BB and .306 xwOBA allowed in home starts over his career. Rhys Hoskins (.397 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Bryce Harper (.390), Maikel Franco (.321), Scott Kingery (.311), Andrew Knapp (.306), Cesar Hernandez (.279) and Jose Pirela (.439 on 14 PA) are all in play tonight. With the exception of Kingery Hoskins and Harper, all Phillies’ bats are under $4k on Draftkings. Besides Harper at $4.1k, all bats are under $3.3k on Fanduel as well. Despite the cheap pricing, they have a healthy 5.23 implied total vs. Smith and the Marlins and make for nice cash or GPP plays on the early slate.
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Cesar Hernandez, Scott Kingery, Maikel Franco Wainwright in a great spot vs. depleted Cubs lineup
The Cubs look like they’ll end the season on a pretty low note after being officially eliminated from the playoffs and with rumors swirling that Joe Maddon will not return. Practically the four best hitters in their usual lineup (Rizzo, Castellanos, Baez, Bryant) all look like they will be out for this game and possibly the rest of the season. That leaves their projected lineup with just two hitters with an xwOBA vs. RHP above .335 this year. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have plenty to play for here as they are trying to clinch the division. 38 year old Adam Wainwright has quietly put together a nice bounce-back year, posting a 3.98 ERA / 4.38 xFIP, 11.9% K-BB and 1.39 WHIP. Wainwright is pitching at home tonight, where he has much better numbers: since 2015, Waino has a 2.92 ERA / 3.30 FIP, 12.7% K-BB and .307 xwOBA allowed in home starts, compared to a 6.09 ERA / 4.83 FIP, 10.2% K-BB and .341 xwOBA allowed in road starts. The Cubs currently have just a 3.56 implied total vs. Wainwright and the Cards. Wainwright doesn’t have much K upside, but he is under $9.5k on both major sites and should be a solid option regardless.
Verlander gets another start vs. hopeless Angels squad
Since Mike Trout’s injury on September 7th, the Angels have a league-worst 66 wRC+ with a 25.1% K rate. They also have a 2nd worst .280 xwOBA vs. RHP as a team. Despite being 36 years old, Verlander is wrapping up one of the best seasons of his career that has seen him post a 2.53 ERA / 3.24 xFIP, 35% K rate and 5.1% BB rate, 0.81 WHIP and 16.1% SwStr. In his last 15 starts, Verlander has gone 6+ innings in 12 of them, has allowed three or less runs in 14 of them, and has struck out at least 10 batters in nine of them. In 33 starts over the whole season, he’s pitched less than 5 innings just once, and has never allowed more than 4 earned runs. He projects to have the platoon advantage against the majority of the Angels’ lineup tonight. Despite the high pricing ($12.8k on DK, $11.4k on FD) Verlander is always worth consideration, especially in cash giving how consistent he’s been. The Angels currently have just a 2.41 implied total vs. Verlander and the ‘Stros tonight.
That Time of Year
It’s that time of the year where pitching projections are a bit tougher to peg due to uncertainty surrounding pitch counts. Guys on teams with no real motivation, like Robbie Ray and the Diamondbacks almost have less volatile pitch count projections because you don’t have to worry about the team treating the game as a ‘tune up’ start for the playoffs like we may see with Justin Verlander and the Astros. That’s not to say JV may not near 100 pitches in this matchup but there is some risk to that projection and any sort of additional risk is tough to justify at a price tag as high as Verlander’s. With that said, I’m fine using Ray as my primary pitching option on Saturday night as he’s clearly the #2 option behind Verlander but offers a significant discount.
