DFS Alerts
Max Fried is one of four pitchers with 100+ IP above a 25 K% and 50 GB%
Max Fried has struck out 20 of his last 47 batters to drive his season strikeout rate up over 25% (25.1%). To this, he adds a board high 53.3 GB% among those with more than three starts. This has helped him to generate the lowest rate of Barrels/BBE on the board (3.5%), despite an 88.8 mph aEV. Of course, a lot of the hard contact is showing up in a 24.5 LD% and .337 BABIP, but Fried is down to a 3.17 SIERA and 2.49 FIP over the last month. For the season, he has a 3.86 ERA with all estimators below that (including a 2.99 DRA) due to the elevated BABIP. Fried is now one of just four pitchers in the league above both a 50% ground ball rate and 25% strikeout rate with more than 100 pitches. The other three are all fringe Cy Young candidates this year (Stephen Strasburg, Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray). This is a powerful combination that enables pitchers to shut down offenses in virtually any environment. While weather and umpire projects to favor offense more than pitching tonight, Fried should still have some value at a price point around $9K, especially on DraftKings ($8.9K). The Phillies have been perfectly league average vs LHP this year (99 wRC+, 22.2 K%, 15.0 HR/FB).
Ty Blach has a 0.8 K-BB%, 9.86 DRA and .394 xwOBA
Camden is nowhere near Coors in terms of run environment, but it’s still a significant upgrade for the Dodger offense and Baltimore pitching may make it feel like Coors. Ty Blach has allowed 30 ERs and six HRs in just 24.2 innings this year, sporting a 0.8 K-BB% and xwOBA above .390. His 9.86 DRA is just a run below his ERA (10.95). This, despite having allowed just 5.6% Barrels/BBE on 42% 95+ mph EV and just a 36 GB%. In other words, this could be even worse. While the Dodgers are certainly more potent against RHP, a common misconception is that they aren’t a good offense against LHP and nothing could be further from the truth. They have the ninth best wRC+ in the majors against southpaws (105) with a 9.4 BB%, 17.8 HR/FB and 28.2 Hard-Soft%. The Dodgers are implied for 6.58 runs tonight, which is the second best total on the board and only one outside Coors above six runs. Batters from either side of the plate are smashing Blach for a wOBA and xwOBA above .380 this season and RHBs are above a .340 against him for his career. Key bats are certainly A.J. Pollock (148 wRC+, .185 ISO vs LHP this year), Justin Turner (141 wRC+, .297 ISO) and Cody Bellinger (154 wRC+, .329 ISO). For others, including David Freese (133 wRC+, .256 ISO), Will Smith (91 wRC+, .239 ISO), Enrique Hernandez (102 wRC+, .176 ISO), Chris Taylor (126 wRC+, .280 ISO) and perhaps Jedd Gyorko, who hasn’t played much this year, but costs the minimum on FanDuel ($3.1K on DraftKings), it would probably depend on where they ended up in the order.
Other tagged players: Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger, David Freese, Will Smith, Enrique Hernandez, Jedd Gyorko, Chris Taylor, Ty Blach Padres projected lineup does not include a batter above a .350 wOBA or .190 ISO vs RHP
Kyle Hendricks has generally beat his estimators behind great contact management (85.3 mph aEV is best on the board) and a strong defense. That’s still the case this season with a 3.39 ERA, 4.40 SIERA and 3.84 DRA, but while his estimators have remained rather consistent over the last 30 days, his ERA is actually up to 4.94 over that span. His .289 xwOBA is 54 points below his actual results over that span though and just four points from his .293 xwOBA on the season, suggesting not much has changed. And in fact, it’s really just been two bad outings. He’s allowed one run or less in three of his last four starts. San Diego is a park upgrade and a great spot for Hendricks, who may be worth a buy in the mid-range price tier for less than $9K tonight. This is all about the matchup. The Padres have an 85 wRC+ and 26.3 K% vs RHP, the latter the highest split on the board by a full point. Considering the current version of their lineup, they retain the high strikeout rate, but without any real power. According to PlateIQ, tonight’s projected lineup combines for a 24.6 K% (omitting the pitcher’s spot) with a .304 wOBA and .149 ISO vs RHP this year. Not a single batter is above a .350 wRC+ or .190 ISO.
Astros are responsible for 25% of the Home Runs Mike Fiers has allowed this year
Mike Fiers continues to do unimaginable things, although he’s coming off allowing four runs to the Angels in five innings. His 3.51 ERA is well more than a run below estimators and even if you believe in his 12.2 HR/FB in a favorable park, his 4.75 FIP still labels him a below average pitcher. His ERA has grown more than a quarter of a run over the last month (3.77) and his strikeout rate has actually increased to 20.2% over that span. His 16.7 K% is worst on the board among those with more than three starts and if you think he’s excelling in contact management, his .327 xwOBA is also 28 points worse than his actual mark. The Astros are one of few teams to get to him this year as well. They homered four times against him in an August 15th start and have six of the 24 HRs he’s allowed this year (25%) in just 15 innings with just eight strikeouts. The smart bet is for Houston to touch Fiers up yet again. Although he’s moving from one negative run environment to another, Houston is more power friendly and we have the most contact prone offense (18.5 K% vs RHP) facing the lowest strikeout rate on the board with just a 40% ground ball rate. The first seven batters in the projected lineup for Houston are all above a 115 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs RHP this year. In addition, RHBs have a .341 xwOBA against Fiers, which serves the top half of this order well. George Springer (156 wRC+, .278 ISO), Jose Altuve (122 wRC+, .198 ISO) and Alex Bregman (145 wRC+, .235 ISO) are a powerhouse combination tonight.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Mike Fiers Top arm on the board (Jacob deGrom 31.1 K%, 5.5% Barrels/BBE) gets a potential weather boost
Jacob deGrom is probably already the top arm on the slate without additional factors. He’s tied for the top strikeout rate on the board (31.1%) with sole possession of the top DRA (2.49) by more than three-quarters of a run, top xwOBA (.264) by 20 points and lowest Barrels/BBE (5.5%). He has allowed exactly four runs in back to back starts, but has gone exactly seven innings in eight of his last nine starts and is facing a below average offense (Diamondbacks 89 wRC+ vs RHP) in one of the more negative run environments in baseball. While the Arizona lineup generally doesn’t offer a lot of strikeout upside (21.5 K% vs RHP), deGrom may be getting a further weather boost tonight. According to Weather Edge (premium subscription required), which updates throughout the day, Citi Field is currently the only park expected to experience a negative run and home run boost of more than 10%. Should this occur, it would easily give the best pitcher on the board the most negative run environment. DeGrom costs at least $500 less than Shane Bieber on either site and could be in a spot which makes him not only the top pitcher on the board, but also the top high end value arm as well.
Sneaky Spot for His Splits
The Mets are merely an average offensive unit, but average just might be good enough on this slate. They are also facing a certifiably average pitcher in Merrill Kelly, who has a 4.81 SIERA, 4.68 xFIP, and a 43% hard contact rate allowed this season. It would not shock me if the Mets scored two runs tonight. It would also not shock me if they were the highest scoring offense on the slate. That makes them an intriguing GPP stack. If you are looking for individual plays, prioritize the lefties. LHBs have posted a .345 wOBA against Kelly this year with a massive 47% hard contact rate. That would put the likes of McNeil, Conforto, or the recently returned Robinson Cano near the top of the list. Cano cracked a home run yesterday and is still very affordable on all sites. McNeil and Conforto both own wOBA marks above .375 against RHP this year, with Conforto also owning a .274 ISO. He has a great profile against Kelly and has landed in my core for today.
Target the Power
The Astros are almost always viable options these days, particularly on slates that are barren for elite offensive spots. After all, this team has now scored 20+ runs in a game twice in a one month span, with another 15 run performance sprinkled in there (that one was against Charlie Morton). They lead the league with a .368 team wOBA in the second half, with a 10% team walk rate and a 19% strikeout rate. That’s just nuts. Their team averages are better than any individual hitter on the Tigers or Marlins. There simply aren’t a lot of free outs in this lineup. Mike Fiers has posted solid numbers this year and is by no means a gas can, but he is also a pitcher that allows a lot of contact and has a fly ball lean. That plays right into the Houston power bats. I will almost always prioritize Alex Bregman in these spots, as he owns a .400 wOBA and .417 on base percentage against RHP this year. That’s absurd. He is my core play here.
Monday's Top Ace
In terms of historical performance, deGrom checks in as the most bona fide ace on this Monday slate. The 2018 National League Cy Young winner takes the mound for the Mets, with every game taking on primary importance at this point. The Mets are in danger of falling out of the Wild Card race, and they face a Diamondbacks team that is ahead of them in the standings. Expect the Mets to allow deGrom to go as deep into this game as he can. His metrics remain elite across the board, from a 2.76 ERA to a solid batted ball profile to 31% strikeouts and 6% walks. His 15.4% swinging strike rate is one of the highest you will find in the league. The problem lies in his matchup against a red hot Diamondbacks squad that owns the fifth lowest team strikeout rate in baseball in the second half. However, he is pitching at home in what amounts to a near must-win game. I’ll side with deGrom and have tagged him as a core option on all sites, especially since he is now cheaper than the next option on every site except Yahoo.
Good Matchup + Good Park
If the San Diego Padres can make Merrill Kelly and his 19.5% strikeout rate look like the next Gerrit Cole then certainly Kyle Hendricks and his 21% strikeout rate has a little bit of fantasy upside in this matchup. Hendricks has been solid for the Cubs this season and in addition to a strong strikeout matchup he’ll get the benefit of taking the mound at pitcher friendly PetCo park. Hendricks doesn’t have as high of a ceiling as some of the high-priced pitchers on the slate but he’s arguably got the highest floor of any pitcher in his price range and the matchup provides him with the adequate upside in tournaments.
Estimators (5.11 SIERA) much worse than MIke Foltynewicz's 2.96 ERA last 30 days
Mike Foltynewicz looks like he’s rounding back into form with a 2.96 ERA over the last 30 days. However, his 5.11 SIERA is actually a bit higher than his season mark. He’s struck out just five of his last 41 batters, while walking as many, both starts against Toronto. He did not allow a HR. On the season, he has an 11.7 K-BB% with a board worse 18 HR/FB despite just a 35.1 GB%. That’s 20 HRs in 92 innings split evenly. Folty used to have issues with LHBs, which seemed solved last season, but this year he’s struggled equally with batters from either side of the plate. In fact, it’s RHBs that have been slightly better against him with a wOBA and xwOBA both just above .350. He’s one of just two pitchers on the board tonight above a .340 xwOBA (.342) and 8% Barrels/BBE (8.1%). There was also a large drop off in his velocity last time out (1.4 mph), which may be why he was lifted after just 76 pitches despite not yet allowing a run. That said, Corey Dickerson (145 wRC+, .270 ISO vs RHP this year) seems a major value for just $3K on FanDuel. Rhys Hoskins (120 wRC+, .258 ISO) and the red hot J.T. Realmuto (100 wRC+, .196 ISO with a 264 wRC+ and 63.2 Hard% last seven days) are the interesting bats from the right-hand side here. The Phillies have an implied run line of 4.47 that sits in the middle of the board with potential for a bit more.
Other tagged players: Rhys Hoskins, Corey Dickerson, Mike Foltynewicz Power vs Flyball PItcher
I’ll admit it – I’m a huge sucker when it comes to Mike Fiers. I just can’t resist stacking against him when he takes the mound despite his ability to limit hard-contact. Fiers has been able to piece together a solid 3.51 ERA this season which is impressive considering his inability to miss bats (16.7 K%). Fiers is an old school fly ball pitcher who has been able to find success with pin point accuracy but things can fall apart quickly on night’s he’s not in complete control. Fiers fly balling tendencies can lead to a lot of HRs if he’s missing his spots and that’s what you’re banking on if you’re stacking Houston’s power hitters.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman Top Offense to Target
Milwaukee is clearly Monday’s top offense to target in a favorable road matchup against Robert Dugger. Dugger struggled significantly when promoted to AAA this season and is unlikely to be able to piece together a strong start against the high powered Brewers offense. Even with Moustakas likely out of the lineup the Brewers still have a ton of capable bats with five hitters in their projected lineup owning ISO’s of .226 or higher against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Trent Grisham, Yasmani Grandal, Travis Shaw Mike Trout (toe) scratched Sunday; Michael Hermosillo replaces
Trout has been scratched from the Los Angeles Angels original confirmed lineup and will not start in the Sunday’s matchup against the Chicago White Sox due to a nagging toe injury. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Michael Hermosillo, who will now play center field and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the Angels batting order but, most notably, bumps David Fletcher all the way up to second, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as Los Angeles faces off against right-hander Dylan Cease on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: the Los Angeles Angels via Twitter Other tagged players: Michael Hermosillo
Reds’ lineup has value and upside vs. Leake
Mike Leake has looked off to say the least, posting a 6.98 ERA, 5.78 SIERA and 5.96 xFIP with a miniscule 6.9% K rate and 2.43 HR/9. Leake has just 4 strikeouts over his past 18 and 2/3 innings and has posted a hard contact rate above 50% 3 of his last 6 starts (above 40% in 5 of his last 6 starts). Leake has been more vulnerable when pitching away from home, posting a .354 xwOBA on the road compared to a .329 xwOBA at home since 2017. The Reds are msising some firepower in their lineup but still have some good options for today: Derek Dietrich (.366 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Joey Votto (.356), Josh VanMeter (.338), Eugenio Suarez (.328), Tucker Barnhart (.298), Jose Iglesias (.281) and Freddy Galvis (.275) are all options in this matchup. With the exception of Votto ($4.1k) and Suarez ($5.3k), all Reds’ batters are available for under $4k on Draftkings despite a solid 5.00 implied total. VanMeter (leading off at $3.8k), Barnhart (batting 4th at $3.2k) both look like some of the better values on the slate.
Other tagged players: Derek Dietrich, Tucker Barnhart, Josh VanMeter, Eugenio Suarez
Jon Lester has .389 xwOBA allowed, 5.52 SIERA over past 30 days
Lester has a 3.29 ERA over the past 30 days, but his surrounding numbers suggest that he’s getting incredibly lucky. He’s also posted a 5.52 SIERA, 5.14 xFIP and .389 xwOBA allowed with a 7.2% K-BB, 1.65 WHIP and a 86.1% LOB rate. Lester’s fastball velo has been down about a full MPH over his past few starts, and he’s shown an uncharacteristic lack of control as he’s walked 13 batters over his last 4 starts. Lester gets a start this afternoon in hitter friendly Miller Park vs. the Brewers. He’s has actually been worse vs. lefties this year (.333 xwOBA vs. RHB, .371 xwOBA vs. LHB) but can be targeted from either side of the plate. Christian Yelich (.400 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Yasmani Grandal (.392), Ryan Braun (.372), Tyler Austin (.369), Lorenzo Cain (.348), Orlando Arcia (.316), and Hernan Perez (.280) are all potential options. Yelich has been their hottest hitter with a .440 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. Cain (projected to lead off, $3.7k on DK), Ryan Braun (projected to bat 4th, $4k), Tyler Austin (projected 5th, $3.4k) and Hernan Perez (projected 6th, $3.1k) all look like great values in this Brewers’ order.
Other tagged players: Yasmani Grandal, Lorenzo Cain, Orlando Arcia, Tyler Austin, Ryan Braun