DFS Alerts
GPP Pitcher
Dallas Keuchel against the Chicago White Sox is a pitcher that I like in GPPs. This season the White sox are 8th in strikeout rate and 25th in ISO to left handed pitching. Keuchel is coming off three straight starts with 7 strikeouts and at least 22 DK points. It’s a high price to pay on DK, but it should keep his ownership down.
Bundy could be a nice value arm vs. KCR
It has mostly been a disappointing season for Bundy as he has so far posted a 4.98 ERA, 4.55 xFIP and 4.52 SIERA with a 1.35 WHIP, 1.7 HR/9 and 31.7% hard contact rate. However, the swing and miss stuff has been there (12.5% SwStr, 23% K rate) and he hasn’t allowed too many free passes either (7.9%). Bundy has also looked sharper over the past 30 days with a 4.03 ERA, 3.49 xFIP and 4.06 SIERA, a 0.62 HR/9 and 1.24 WHIP. Bundy’s biggest problem is that he allows too many homers, but fortunately he’ll be facing a Royals team tonight that has the 2nd fewest home runs in baseball vs. right-handed pitching, good for just a 2.6% HR/PA. Overall, the Royals have just an 85 wRC+ and 22% K Rate vs. RHP on the year. The Royals also have a 2nd worst 72 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Bundy will come in at a price of just $7300 on both major sites tonight and will be a very intriguing option in all contests given the matchup and affordability. He also gets a park upgrade, pitching in Kauffman Stadium tonight instead of Camden. The Royals currently have a 4.34 implied total for this matchup tonight.
Top GPP One Off
With Coors on this slate and a bunch of good outfielders to pay up for we should see some lower ownership on some great high price outfield plays. Aristides Aquino is a great play today against Michael Wacha. Wacha is a reverse splits guy who is giving up a 399 wOBA, 248 ISO, and a 39% hard contact rate to right bats. Aquino has been on a tear and he is hitting a 462 ISO, 452 wOIBA, and a 48% fly ball rate to right handed pitching.
Strasburg is in a great spot at home vs. Marlins
Strasburg is far and away the best projected option on the main slate and will likely be very highly owned across all contest types tonight. Posting a nearly identical season to 2018, Strasburg so far has a 3.63 ERA, 3.31 xFIP and 3.56 SIERA with a 1.08 WHIP, 28.8% K rate, 6.2% BB rate, 30% hard contact, 49.8% GB rate and a career best 13.7% SwStr. The career best SwStr can perhaps be attributed to throwing his curve more, as he has increased its usage from 20% in 2018 to 30% this year, and the pitch has a 41.3% whiff rate per Statcast. Strasburg faces the Marlins tonight, who have a a 2nd worst 76 wRC+ and a 25.2% K Rate vs. RHP on the year. They also have just a .303 xwOBA over the past 30 days. The Marlins’ projected lineup has just one batter (Neil Walker) with an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .325 on the year, and also has 3 batters under .250 (Lewis Brinson, Isan Diaz, Austin Dean). Strasburg also projects to have the platoon advantage against 7 of 9 Miami hitters. Strasburg costs $11.2k on both major sites but figures to be well worth the price tonight. The Marlins currently have just a 2.96 implied line vs. Strasburg and the Nats.
Built for Coors
Starling Marte is #BuiltForCoors. Marte has enough power to benefit from the elevation and has enough speed to take an extra base on hits that find the gap in Coors’ massive outfield. In addition to a massive favorable park shift for Marte and the Pirates, the matchup is a good one as well against 29 year old career Minor Leaguer Tim Melville who has been unimpressive at every level he’s pitched. Melville has escaped two starts in the Majors this season but is likely to see his luck run out on Saturday night.
Alternative Cash Game Option on FanDuel
While Strasburg is clearly the top option on Saturday’s main slate, his price tag is a bit more prohibitive on FanDuel. Dallas Keuchel offers a $2,800 discount from Strasburg on FD and while he doesn’t offer nearly the same upside as Strasburg he does make for a viable cash game option as the salary savings allows you to allocate more salary to hitters playing in Coors.
Top Overall Option
Stephen Strasburg is Saturday’s top overall pitching option as he draws a posh home matchup against the Marlins. Miami ranks second worst in the league in wRC+ (76) against right-handed pitching this season and own the sixth worst strikeout rate (25.2%). Strasburg has been stellar for the Nationals this season with a 28.8% strikeout rate and 3.56 SIERA and has solid win equity with Washington currently listed as -293 home favorites.
Phillies are a good stack option on the early slate vs. Matz
Steven Matz isn’t a bad pitcher by any means, but he’s someone to target when he pitches on the road because of how wide his home/road split is. Since 2017, Matz has allowed a 4.98 ERA / 4.93 xFIP with a 10% K-BB and .334 xwOBA allowed in road starts, compared to a 3.83 ERA / 3.59 xFIP, 18% K-BB and .304 xwOBA allowed in home starts. He is also a bit more vulnerable vs. righties, allowing a .323 xwOBA vs. RHB compared to a .307 xwOBA vs. LHB since 2017. Matz is also allowing an ugly 9.6% barrel rate and 88.5 MPH aEV on the year. The Phillies have a 10th ranked 104 wRC+ over the past 2 weeks and have some solid options vs. Matz: Rhys Hoskins (.397 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Bryce Harper (.385), JT Realmuto (.355), Scott Kingery (.329), Jean Segura (.313) and Cesar Hernandez (.283) are all in play. Harper has been their hottest hitter over the past 2 weeks with a .375 xwOBA. There are other more obvious stacks in play on this early slate that could make the Phillies a bit of a contrarian option. They currently have a 4.67 implied total vs. Matz and the Mets.
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Jean Segura, J.T. Realmuto, Scott Kingery, Cesar Hernandez CIN-STL postponed due to inclement weather Friday
The game between the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals on Friday evening has been postponed due to forecasted inclement weather throughout the remainder of the evening hours. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Sunday, September 1st as part of either a traditional or split-admission doubleheader. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Friday’s daily fantasy slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: Derrick S. Goold via Twitter
Dinelson Lamet has a 30.2 K% and estimators a half run below his 4.30 ERA
Dinelson Lamet has struck out 30.2% of the 199 batters he’s faced this year, which is the second best mark on the slate. Further encouraging, estimators suggest an ERA about half a run lower than his actual results (4.30). A 34.5 GB% has led to a high rate of Barrels/BBE (8.6%) despite a very strong 86.7 mph aEV, but with RHBs below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA, that makes this a very good spot for Lamet. San Francisco is where left-handed power goes to die. Just ask Brandon Belt’s career about that. The interesting thing is that conditions suggest a potential run and home run boosting effect not often seen in this park, but as Weather Edge subscribers will notice the wind direction appears to be out towards left. Even with a slight boost, the Giants have just an 86 wRC+ against RHP and 8.6 HR/FB at home. Lamet would still be a worthy play in this matchup even in a neutral run environment, especially at a reasonably priced $8.2K on FanDuel. For those worried about his workload and a quality start, Lamet has completed six innings in two of his last four starts and got through five last time out in a tough matchup with the Red Sox.
Home Run Prone Pitcher Faces Powerful Lineup
Elieser Hernandez has allowed 2.42 HR/9 this season, the third-highest Home Run rate in the league among pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched. Tonight he faces a Nationals lineup that has some power and the weather should be good at Nationals Park with warm temperatures and a breeze blowing out. I’ll be targeting that Nationals power hitters – Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, and Matt Adams, and adding in leadoff man Trea Turner for stacks.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Matt Adams
Max Fried costs just $7.5K on DraftKings in a favorable spot (White Sox 17.9 K-BB% vs LHP)
Without many standouts at the top of the board tonight, this is perhaps the kind of slate where players should look for the bets mid-range value and load up on offense. With a cost of $7.5K on DraftKings in a matchup with upside, Max Fried, very likely fits that description more than most tonight. Despite allowing 39.4% of his contact above a 95 mph EV, a 52.7 GB% has allowed Fried to limit Barrels to 3.7% of batted balls. He does this with above average peripherals (23.7 K%, 7.0 BB%) and while he doesn’t generally go that deep into games, he last failed to complete five innings 12 starts back. A 4.03 ERA is supported by a 3.98 SIERA, but his 3.40 DRA and a .299 xwOBA some 29 points below actual results show some remaining upside. As for the matchup, Fried is at home, which means the White Sox lose a DH. They may have a league average 99 wRC+ vs LHP, but the underlying numbers aren’t pretty and include a 17.9 K-BB% and 12.9 Hard-Soft%. Rostering Fried at a low price tonight leaves players with plenty of options, which include adding another high priced pitcher or several quality bats.
Shane Bieber leads the slate with a 30.8 K% and has gone at least seven innings 12 times
Shane Bieber is probably the top overall arm on a 14 game slate where several arms hover around the $10K mark without any really standing out. Bieber is one of just two above $10K on both sites and he gets a park upgrade under the dome in Tampa Bay. His elite peripherals (board high 30.8 K% and 25.3 K-BB%) alleviate hard contact concerns (90.3 mph aEV). A 3.23 ERA is within 20 points of all of his estimators in addition to a sub-.300 xwOBA (.297). He’s failed to pitch into the sixth inning just four times this year and has completed at least seven innings in 12 of his 27 starts. That’s the highest floor you’re going to find on this slate. The Rays are about an average offense vs RHP (102 wRC+, 22.8 K%, 15.2 HR/FB vs RHP), but the negative run environments gives Bieber the matchup edge. While there are probably some decent values among the more expensive arms tonight, if you are going to pay up, it may be worth going all the way up to Bieber if it’s affordable.
Can't Go Wrong Up Top
There are at least five teams on this slate loaded with expensive bats in great spots against beatable pitchers. But for starters, there is no reason to look past Coors Field we have the two lowest strikeout pitchers on this slate in the best hitters park in the league. Pittsburgh’s Dario Agrazal has managed just a 9.4% strikeout rate to righties, but with at least some ability to induce ground balls and limit hard contact. But against lefties, he’s allowing fly balls and hard hits and his strikeouts are still at a scary low 14.3%. I’ll side with Charlie Blackmon against those batted ball splits ahead of Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story as the top Colorado bat to spend on.
Every Dollar Matters
With so much high end offense on this slate, it’s not reasonable to pay up for two pitchers in most lineup builds. On DK/FDRFT, the most logical and likely chalky SP2 is Max Fried at home against the White Sox. Fried is a similarly skilled pitcher to about a dozen others who are priced significantly higher than him but in tougher matchups. Fried is over 50% ground balls and 22% strikeouts to both sides of the plate with the White Sox already high strikeout, low walk offense before losing a DH in the NL ballpark.