DFS Alerts
Homer-Prone Pitcher In Good Spot
Kikuchi destroyed the Blue Jays two starts ago in a complete game two-hitter where he fanned eight batters, but then got torched in his last start against the Yankees where he finished with negative fantasy points. The appeal here with Kikuchi is he’s a lefty facing a Rangers team that can’t hit lefties. The Rangers lead the majors in K% at 26.4% against southpaws, making this a mouth-watering matchup for Kikuchi. As much as it pains me to say it because there is huge risk here, I think Kikuchi is an elite option here at his price and a viable SP2 in cash games.
Gio Gonzalez has a .380 xwOBA allowed and 5.82 SIERA over past 30 days, faces CHC today
Since joining the Brewers mid-season, Gio Gonzalez has mostly been a serviceable pitcher with a 4.34 ERA / 4.71 xFIP and 11% K-BB. However, he has run into some trouble of late, posting a 5.87 ERA, 5.82 SIERA, .380 xwOBA allowed, 5.5% K-BB and 1.96 HR/9 over the past 30 days. Gio’s had some control problems given his 14.7% BB rate and 29.5% zone rate over the past 30 days. He’s also had a very hard time getting righties out, allowing a .411 xwOBA to RHB over the past month. The Cubs have a 106 wRC+ over the past month and have some options to choose from in their projected lineup today: Kris Bryant (.424 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Nick Castellanos (.411), Javier Baez (.360), Anthony Rizzo (.335), Jonathan Lucroy (.290), Jason Heyward (.265) and Ian Happ (.246) are all potential options. Rizzo has swung a hot bat of late as he has a .481 xwOBA over the last 2 weeks. Heyward isn’t a particularly exciting option, but he’s projected to leadoff and is decently affordable across the industry. Happ and Lucroy are affordable options as well, but have struggled this year and will hit towards the bottom of the order. The Brewers have a 5th worst 4.93 SIERA from their bullpen over the past month, further sweetening the matchup here. They currently have a 4.89 implied total which feels a bit low.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Nick Castellanos, Jason Heyward, Ian Happ, Javier Baez, Jonathan Lucroy
favorite Stack
The Texas Rangers are my top stack of the day. They face Yusei Kikuchi who has really struggled this season to both sides up the plate. Kikuchi has given up 2 or more home runs in 5 out of his last 7 games. It should be nice and hot in Texas and with Coors on this slate we shouldn’t have to worry to much about ownership. I would definitely start my stack off with Choo, Calhoun, and Santana.
Other tagged players: Shin-soo Choo, Elvis Andrus
Top One Off Bat
Aaron Judge has just been crushing the ball recently. He has homered in 6 out of his last 10 games. Judge against left handed pitching this season has a 333 ISO, 487 wOBA, and a 63% hard hit rate. Judge is my top overall bat on this slate going up against a pitcher who is making his first start back in the Majors coming off the 60 day IL.
GPP Pitcher
Yu Darvish is a strong tournament option today. He gets a little tougher matchup against the Brewers but over his last 10 games he has a 32% strikeout rate, 13.3% swinging strike rate, and a 1.2% walk rate. The Brewers are 7th in strikeout rate this season to right handed pitching. If Darvish can continue showing great control he has the upside we look for in tournaments and hopefully we get him at a lower ownership.
The SP1 To Pay Up For
Justin Verlander is the top pitcher on the slate. He gets a solid matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays who this season are 8th in the MLB in strikeouts and 24th in wOBA to right handed pitching. Verlander this year has a 34.5% strikeout rate and a 15.9% swinging strike rate which is tops on this slate. He has the double digit strikeout upside every time he goes on the mound.
Great Value
The Cardinals are rolling right now with eight wins in their last nine games, and Dexter Fowler has been hitting out of the leadoff spot. This is a fine spot for him as a value bat against Tyler Mahle, who is coming back from a rehab stint to make his first start back in the big leagues. Mahle also has wide splits, having long struggled against left-handed bats with some pop. This isn’t the same Dexter Fowler in 2019, but he has looked better of late, as he amassed a .381 OBP and had 21 RBIs in August.
Mid-Range Potential
Pineda is by no means an ace at this stage of his career, but he’s a viable option today if you can’t afford Verlander or if you are able to spend up for two arms on DK/FDRAFT. He has great command, owning a 4.5% walk rate for the year, and this Detroit team is flat out abysmal against RHP. Pineda looked very good in his last start against the White Sox, and I like targeting him in favorable matchups. This certainly qualifies.
The Clear Top Pitcher
If you are spending up at pitcher today, Verlander is the clear choice for me. You simply aren’t getting enough savings by going down to Darvish or Corbin, so find a way to get up to the Houston ace. Verlander continues to pile up the strikeouts, and he gets to face a middle of the pack offense today with the Blue Jays on the docket. Sure, Verlander continues to give up home runs, but they are often solo shots. The rest of his profile is elite everywhere, and you simply can’t ignore his consistent strikeout upside. Prior to getting ejected after 5 1/3 innings in his last start, Justin Verlander had logged 10+ strikeouts in seven straight starts. Play him.
Cheap Leverage Stack For Large Field GPPs
DraftKings featured GPP tonight has an extremely top-heavy payout structure, so don’t shy away from taking a big risk in order to get a ton of leverage on the field. One way to often do this is to stack against the chalkiest SP2 play, which on this slate is Dylan Bundy, who is currently projected to be 30%+ owned, and it’s never surprising when he gets blown up. The Royals actually don’t have the lowest implied run total at 4.3, and although the bottom of their order is putrid, they’re cheap and have the platoon advantage. Along with two of Merrifield, Dozier, Soler, you can 5-man stack them for about $18.5k while paying up for Strasburg and good one-off bats.
Other tagged players: Alex Gordon, Meibrys Viloria, Brett Phillips, Bubba Starling
Angels bats are a contrarian stack with upside tonight vs. Josh Smith
In 11 career games as a starting pitcher, Josh Smith has a 6.70 ERA with a 5.83 xFIP, 4.6% K-BB and 1.82 (!) WHIP. He’s also allowed a .377 xwOBA and 88.8 MPH aEV in those starts. With the exception of Mike Trout, the Angels have a nice selection of bats that have upside and are affordable. Mike Trout (.473 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Shohei Ohtani (.378), Kole Calhoun (.333), David Fletcher (.323), Brian Goodwin (.322), Justin Upton (.314), Kevan Smith (.302) and Albert Pujols (.299) are all in play tonight. Brian Goodwin (.410) has been the Angels’ hottest hitter over the past 2 weeks, followed by Trout with a .399 mark. Fletcher (projected to leadoff) and Upton (projected to bat 4th) are both available for just $3.7k on Draftkings tonight. Calhoun ($4.4k), Pujols ($4k) and Kevan Smith ($2.9k) also look like nice values on DK. Ohtani ($4.9k) and Trout ($5.5k) are by far the two most expensive bats here but could be well worth it as both have continued to mash RHP this year. All Angels’ bats project for decently low ownership tonight, making them an intriguing GPP stack.
Other tagged players: Kole Calhoun, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, Kevan Smith, Brian Goodwin, Albert Pujols Logan Webb is cheap despite great park and matchup
In 2 big league starts so far, Logan Webb has a 4.66 ERA / 4.04 xFIP / 4.18 SIERA with a 20.9% K rate, 7% BB rate and 8.1% SwStr over 9 and 2.3 innings. In 41 and 1/3 innings in AA earlier this year, Webb managed a very solid 2.18 ERA / 3.13 xFIP with a 26.3% K rate and 6.7% BB rate. He projects as a roughly 4.50 ERA pitcher going forward by most projection systems. Webb will get a matchup vs. the Padres tonight in extremely hitter friendly Oracle Park, who have just an 86 wRC+ and an ugly 26.5% K rate vs. RHP this year. They also have a 2nd worst .283 xwOBA over the past 30 days as they have been hurt by the loss of Fernando Tatis Jr. and trade of Franmil Reyes. The Padres projected lineup for tonight has just one batter (Eric Hosmer) who has an xwOBA greater than .325 vs. RHP this year. Webb is especially cheap on FanDuel where his $6.6k price makes him easily one of the best projected values on the slate. Webb is also in play on Draftkings at $7.9k where he projects to see minimal ownership despite a great matchup and park with an affordable price. The Padres currently have just a 4.00 implied total vs. Webb and the Giants.
Pirates currently have highest implied total on the main slate in Coors vs. Melville
The Pirates get the Coors boost this weekend and will be facing off against Tim Melville tonight. Melville had a 5.42 ERA / 5.76 xFIP over 96 AAA innings this year with a 2.24 HR/9. Melville does have a 0.75 ERA over 12 innings this year but with a 5.29 xFIP, .200 BABIP and 100% LOB rate. Melville projects as a 7+ ERA pitcher going forward by two different projection systems (THE BAT and ZiPS) and is someone to continue to target, especially in Coors. Once Melville is chased from the game, Pirates hitters will see at bats versus a Rockies’ bullpen that has a 6th worst 4.75 SIERA over the past 30 days. Josh Bell (.401 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Starling Marte (.382), Bryan Reynolds (.373), Jose Osuna (.336), Adam Frazier (.330), Colin Moran (.326), Kevin Newman (.305) and Jacob Stallings (.295) are all in play tonight for the Pirates. Marte has been their hottest bat with a .394 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Josh Bell wit a .379 mark. All Pirates bats are $4.9k+ on Draftkings with the exception of Stallings ($3.4k). On Fanduel, all Pirates bats are under $4k besides Bell, Marte and Newman. The Pirates are currently sitting at a healthy 6.98 implied total.
Other tagged players: Kevin Newman, Bryan Reynolds, Starling Marte, Jose Osuna, Jacob Stallings Pivot Off Coors Stack
The Red Sox are my favorite stack to pivot off of Coors with. They get the lefty Dillon Peters who this year is giving up a 281 ISO, 385 wOBA, and a 38% hard hit rate to right handed bats. The Red Sox this season against lefties are in the top 10 in both ISO and wOBA. This is an expensive stack on a slate with Coors which should keep its ownership lower for stacks. The 4 guys I want to start my stack are JD, Betts, Bogaerts, and Devers .
Other tagged players: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers Top SP1 In GPPs
Robbie Ray has the strikeout ability we look for in tournaments. This year he has a 13.4% swinging strike rate and 31% strikeout rate. The Dodgers this season are middle of the pack in strikeouts to lefties but we have seen Robbie Ray have success in this matchup just a few starts ago. He is my top pitcher who I hope we can get at a little lower ownership in tournaments.