DFS Alerts
A's have hammered LHP (114 wRC+, 17.4 HR/FB) and get a park upgrade
This is a great spot for the A’s, who have punished LHP all year (114 wRC+, 18.8 K%, 17.4 HR/FB) under generally tougher conditions. Not only will they benefit from a large park upgrade on Friday night, but C.C. Sabathia has struggled to stay healthy this season and has generally not been very good when he’s been able to take the mound. No single estimator suggests his 4.99 ERA should be much better and while he’s not allowing a ton of hard contact (31.4% 95+ mph EV), he’s certainly allowing more of it in the air (39.1 GB%, 8.6% Barrels/BBE). The A’s may be missing a bat or two, but the ones they have from the right-hand side remain quite potent. Matt Chapman (135 wRC+, .293 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is your top overall Oakland bat with Mark Canha (125 wRC+, .265 ISO) not far behind and sporting a 252 wRC+ over the last week. Marcus Semien (114 wRC+, .182 ISO) should be included in stacks. Chad Pinder (106 wRC+, .211 ISO) would be the value play (within $400 of $3K on either site), should he find himself in a reasonable lineup position. A 5.13 implied run line places the A’s just outside the top 10 on the board tonight with reason to believe they may be under-valued here.
Other tagged players: Mark Canha, Marcus Semien, CC Sabathia, Chad Pinder
Brett Anderson has a 12 K% with 40.6% of contact above a 95 mph EV
Any effectiveness from Brett Anderson stems from the fact that he keeps the ball on the ground (53.1%) in a great park. This is a terrible spot for him though. In fact, it’s a major surprise to see the Yankees trailing five teams tonight at 5.87 implied runs. It’s certainly a park downgrade for Anderson, who has just a 12 K% with a 5.27 SIERA, 5.56 DRA, and .348 xwOBA with 40.6% of his contact above 95 mph. Over the last calendar year, RHBs own a .334 wOBA, but an xwOBA quite a bit higher (.362) with a dip in ground ball rate (49.2%). The Yankees are loaded with right-handed power, especially with Luke Voit (165 wRC+, .333 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) returning tonight. Heck, the Yankees have even turned DJ LeMahieu (185 wRC+, .290 ISO) into a power hitter. Along with Aaron Judge (197 wRC+, .344 ISO) catching fire (271 wRC+, 70.6 Hard% last seven days), this is a lineup that should be very problematic for Anderson in this spot. Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres and Giovanny Urshela all exceed a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO against lefties over the last 12 months as well.
Other tagged players: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, Gary Sanchez, Brett Anderson Solid Win Equity and Quality Start Probability
Max Fried’s price tag on FanDuel is a bit expensive which is where Anibal Sanchez enters the discussion. Sanchez is a pitcher that I’m typically short on as I think he’s been more lucky than good this season (3.81 ERA vs 5.03 SIERA) but there’s no denying a home matchup against a terrible Marlins offense (76 wRC+; 25.2 K% vs RHP). Sanchez has solid win equity with the Nationals being listed as -243 favorites and his quality start probability (.45) via THE BAT are second to just John Means (.48) of pitcher’s priced $8,000 or below.
DraftKings Top Pitcher Value
As the other expert’s have noted, prioritizing bats seems to be the correct approach to lineup construction in all formats. That leaves us looking at Friday’s low-priced pitching options which is headlined by Max Fried. Fried gets a strong home matchup against against a White Sox offense that has been better against left-handed pitching this season (99 wRC+) but that will be without a DH in an NL park. Despite the White Sox relative success against southpaws they still have a lot of strikeouts in their lineup – their projected lineup owns a 25.1% strikeout rate against LHP over the last two seasons – which helps pads Fried’s fantasy floor and elevate his ceiling.
MadBum is in a great spot vs. Padres at home
Madison Bumgarner has experienced a nice rebound in the K% department this year, currently sitting at a 24.5% K Rate after posting a 19.8% mark in 2018 and a 22.4% mark in 2017. Overall, Bumgarner has a 3.71 ERA, 4.19 xFIP and 4.07 SIERA with a 1.10 WHIP and 11.3% SwStr. Per Statcast, he has also posted a solid .308 xwOBA allowed with an 8.4% barrel rate and 89.6 MPH aEV. He gets a matchup in pitcher’s haven Oracle Park vs. the Padres, who have do have a respectable 103 wRC+ and 24.3% K Rate vs. LHP on the year. However, they have just a 23rd ranked .309 xwOBA vs. LHP as a team, and a 28th ranked .290 xwOBA over the past 30 days as they’ve been hurt by the loss of Fernando Tatis (back injury) and Franmil Reyes (traded). Bumgarner has a been a much better pitcher at home; since 2017, he has a 2.64 ERA / 3.24 FIP with a 18.3% K-BB and .291 xwOBA allowed at home, compared to a 4.34 ERA / 4.53 FIP with a 15% K-BB and .333 xwOBA allowed in road starts. He’ll have a price tag of $9.2k on Fanduel and $10.2k on Draftkings and looks like a good play in both cash and GPPs. The Padres currently have just a 3.51 implied total.
Jose Suarez has worst 30-day SIERA (5.65) and HR/9 (2.57) of all SP on the main slate (min. 20 IP)
21 year old Jose Suarez has had a rough time so far in his first MLB season, posting a 6.67 ERA, 5.34 xFIP and 4.93 SIERA with a 44.4% hard contact rate, 11.8% K-BB and 11.2% SwStr. He hasn’t shown any signs of improvement and has actually looked worse over the past month, posting a 9 ERA, 5.65 SIERA and 3.8% K-BB with an ugly 2.57 HR/9. Suarez faces the Red Sox tonight, who have a 117 wRC+ over the past 30 days. JD Martinez (.504 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Sam Travis (.373), Mookie Betts (.356), Xander Bogaerts (.352), Rafael Devers (.331), Andrew Benintendi (.327), Christian Vasquez (.319) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (.295) are all good options in the Red Sox projected order. Jackie Bradley Jr. has actually been Boston’s hottest hitter over the past 2 weeks with a .462 xwOBA, followed closely by JD Martinez with a .457 mark. JBJ projects to hit at the bottom of the order but is a cheap $3.9k on Draftkings and $2.6k on Fanduel. Travis and Vasquez are also nice value options on both major sites. You’ll have to pay up for Betts, Devers, Bogaerts and Martinez as they are all $5k+ on Draftkings and $3.7k+ on Fanduel. The Red Sox currently have a 5.50 implied line that I wouldn’t be surprised to see increase as we get closer to lock. They make for a solid GPP stack on tonight’s 14 game slate.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, Sam Travis, Rafael Devers, Jackie Bradley Rockies currently have an implied total above 7.5 vs. Agrazal in Coors
Over 49 big league innings this year, Agrazal has posted a 4.41 ERA, but with a 6.38 xFIP and 5.84 SIERA. He’s also posted a miniscule 11.9% K rate and 5.8% SwStr. While he has done a good job managing contact (5.5% barrel rate, 86.5 MPH aEV, .328 xwOBA on contact) lack of swing-and-miss stuff and reliance on a low BABIP is certainly not a sustainable approach in Coors. Once Agrazal is chased from the game, Rockies hitters will get at bats vs. a Pirates bullpen that has posted a below average .325 xwOBA over the past month. Charlie Blackmon (.360 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Trevor Story (.341), Ryan McMahon (.335), Nolan Arenado (.331), Daniel Murphy (.295), Ian Desmond (.293) and Tony Wolters (.279) are all in play tonight. Daniel Murphy has led the team over the past 2 weeks with a .393 xwOBA after struggling mightily for the majority of the year. Murphy comes at a discounted cost of just $4.5k on Draftkings. Nolan Arenado has also seen the ball well over the past 2 weeks with a .384 xwOBA. Ryan McMahon ($4.6k), Ian Desmond ($4.3k), Sam Hilliard ($4k) and Tony Wolters ($3.5k) also look like nice values for tonight’s matchup. The Rockies currently have a 7.61 implied total.
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, Daniel Murphy, Tony Wolters, Sam Hilliard, Ryan McMahon, Trevor Story Max Fried is a great value arm tonight vs. CHW
Max Fried has had a very solid year for the Braves, posting a 4.05 ERA, 3.46 xFIP and 3.99 SIERA with a 23.7% K rate, 7% BB rate, 52.7% GB rate, 10.8% SwStr and a 1.12 HR/9. He’s also looked a bit sharper over the past 30 days with a 3.29 ERA, 3.21 xFIP and 3.69 SIERA, 26.7% K rate, 6% BB rate and 11.5% SwStr. Fried gets a nice matchup at home tonight vs. the White Sox. The White Sox have seemingly been solid with a 99 wRC+ vs. LHP on the year, but they have an inflated .340 BABIP vs. LHP that is 2nd in the league, trailing only the Rockies. By xwOBA, the White Sox have a 5th-worst .304 xwOBA as a team this year vs. LHP and also have a 24% K rate. Chicago is also running just a .295 xwOBA as a team over the past 2 weeks. Fried will also be helped by projected catcher Tyler Flowers, who is one of the best pitch framers in baseball. Fried looks to be the best value arm on this slate on Draftkings at a price of just $7500. He is still in play on Fanduel, but with a price of $8800. The White sox currently have just a 3.91 implied line vs. Fried and the Braves tonight in Atlanta.
Merrill Kelly has allowed the highest rate of Barrels/BBE on the board (9.4%)
On a six game slate, three will take place in some of the most negative run environments in baseball. Two are in the most positive. Arizona is the lone wildcard and this may leave Dodger bats under-owned in a favorable spot. Although it would seem hard to tell by their results this season, most road games are a park upgrade for Dodger bats. Merrill Kelly strikes out batters at a below average rate (18.9%) with traditional estimators supporting his 4.86 ERA. His 5.61 DRA and .353 xwOBA suggests a bit of fortune that things haven’t been even worse. Kelly has also allowed the highest rate of Barrels/BBE on the board (9.4%). LHBs have a .343 wOBA and .372 xwOBA against Kelly this year, but RHBs have been good too (.320 wOBA, .336 xwOBA). At 5.23 implied runs, there are currently no offenses within a half run of the Dodgers in either direction. Even with the expected absence of Max Muncy tonight, not a single bat in the projected lineup is below a .170 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year with only A.J. Pollock (88 wRC+, .211 ISO) below a 110 wRC+. Joc Pederson (123 wRC+, .290 ISO) would be a great value should he find himself back in the leadoff spot tonight. Corey Seager (126 wRC+, .239 ISO) would be another should he find the top half of the lineup. Cody Bellinger (168 wRC+, .339 ISO) is your top overall bat, it goes without saying.
Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Merrill Kelly, Cody Bellinger Jacob deGrom has a .245 xwOBA at home since last 2018
Jacob deGrom struck out 13 Braves in his last start and hasn’t allowed more than five hits in a game since mid-July. He’s completed seven innings in six of his last seven starts and has the highest strikeout rate on the board by more than four points (31.9%), the top SIERA (3.34) by nearly half a run, the top DRA (2.38) by more than half a run, the top Z-Contact (79.7%), and the best xwOBA (.258) by more than 20 points. His 5.0% Barrels/BBE is just 0.1 behind tonight’s top suppressors and his .224 xwOBA over the last month is best by more than 40 points. deGrom has a .245 wOBA at home since last season, which is the top split on the board by more than 50 points. He pitches in an extremely pitcher friendly environment and will be facing a Chicago offense who have some power, but have been without Anthony Rizzo the last few days and also have some strikeouts in the lineup (23.6% vs RHP, 28% last seven days). deGrom is the most expensive pitcher on the board by at least $1.5K on either site, but he’s also the top overall arm on the board by a mile as well and may even still be one of tonight’s top values.
Mets have a 111 wRC+ and 17.3 HR/FB vs LHP
Jon Lester has had a great career, but is clearly a pitcher in decline in his age 35 season. While there’s nothing wrong with being a league average pitcher at that age, the amount of hard contact he’s allowed recently has been concerning. Along with a .386 xwOBA over the last 30 days, he has now allowed 8.3% Barrels/BBE on the season with a DRA that’s crept above five (5.09). In four of his last five starts, he’s allowed at least three runs in no more than five innings and the “good” start over that span came against one of the worst offenses in the league against LHP (Pirates), a game in which Lester walked five without allowing a run. While Citi Field should be considered an upgrade for pitchers, Lester will be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup with quite a bit of power, who have been tough on southpaws this year (111 wRC+, 17.3 HR/FB). Oddsmakers are still buying into Lester. A 4.13 implied run line for the Mets puts them on the bottom half of the board. This offers DFS players a contrarian opportunity. RHBs have a .317 wOBA, .329 xwOBA vs Lester over the last calendar year, while LHBs have been even better (.366 wOBA, .383 xwOBA). Look for Amed Rosario (144 wRC+, .221 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and Jeff McNeil (135 wRC+, .156 ISO) at the top of the order ahead of some combination J.D. Davis (128 wRC+, .186 ISO), Pete Alonso (149 wRC+, .387 ISO), Wilson Ramos (136 wRC+, .173 ISO), Todd Frazier (112 wRC+, .207 ISO) and Michael Conforto (96 wRC+, .181 ISO). Only Alonso and Conforto are above $3K on FanDuel where a Mets stack might also get you their pitcher, the top overall arm on the mound tonight.
Other tagged players: Jon Lester, Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis, Pete Alonso, Todd Frazier, Wilson Ramos, Michael Conforto Alex Wood has struggled, but finds himself in a great spot (Marlins 79 wRC+ vs LHP)
Alex Wood struck out just one Pirate in his last start (three walks) and 17.1% of batters in six starts, but with a 10.1 SwStr% that’s actually a touch above his 9.9% career rate. The real concern is a 41.7 GB% that’s more than four points below his next worse season and 7.5 points below his career average. The result has been eight HRs, a mark that’s already halfway to his career high in just 29.2 innings. True, the transition to one of the most power friendly parks in the league hasn’t helped, but half of his HRs have come on the road in Washington and Atlanta. His Statcast numbers provide some reason for optimism in that only 6.1% of his contact has been Barreled and a board low 31.3% of it has been above a 95+ mph EV. While his xwOBA is 28 points better than his actual results, a .353 mark is still nothing to brag about. Wood is simply in the top run prevention spot on the board tonight. While the Marlins don’t strike out a ton vs LHP (22.5%), they have just a 5.7 BB% and 79 wRC+. They also have just an 11.9 HR/FB at home and very little power in the lineup in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. Wood costs less than $8K on either site.
Terrible Chalk, But Nothing Better
Dereck Rodriguez is not good. But he pitches in San Francisco and he’s extremely cheap on DK/FDRFT on a slate with an ace pitcher and several expensive offenses in great spots to pay up for. All of the mid-range pitchers are in shaky recent form, and there is a possibility that SP2 is just a matter of survival and savings tonight. The idea of Rodriguez chalk is terrifying, but at least in cash games, the priority is deGrom + Coors or Dodgers bats, and this is what makes it possible.
Top Option At Low Ownership
Renfroe has a .314 wOBA with a 33.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. This should scare you off in most matchups. With Rodriguez having a low strikeout rate, I’m not worried about Renfroe striking out. He has a .255 ISO with a 45.5% fly ball rate and a 45.5% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. This is a high upside spot, and I really like him to be low owned on this slate.
Take The Lefties First
The Coors Field game stands out on tonight’s slate with two low strikeout pitchers in Chi-Chi Gonzalez and Trevor Williams. While Gonzalez is the worse pitcher, the best hitters in this game come on the Colorado side. Between the big three of Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado, I’ll lean on the splits of Williams to settle the matter tonight. Williams has struck out a dangerously low 13.3% of lefties while allowing a .393 woBA and .235 ISO with not ground ball ability. Blackmon has power, on base upside and run scoring opportunities from the top of the lineup and will be my first spend in cash games and a key part of tournament builds, both in stacks and alone as a one off.