DFS Alerts

All Alone At The Top

There are some big bats to spend on tonight, but the gap between Jacob deGrom and the rest of the pitchers is bigger than the gaps we see between bats tonight. All of the other pitchers on tonights slate have some reason for concern with their recent form, but deGrom just keeps on rolling along as one of the best and most consistent pitchers in the league. It’s been over three months since he’s allowed more than three runs in a start, with 0-2 runs allowed in 15 of his last 16. The Cubs are not an easy opponent, but deGrom has been matchup proof, and without Anthony Rizzo in the lineup, this is an average strikeout Chicago team. deGrom’s consistent strikeouts and innings give him the highest floor and the highest ceiling on this slate and worth spending on at least in cash games.

Massive Game Total Offers Tons of Upside

Despite throwing six shutout innings in his last start, Trevor Williams still owns a 7.21 ERA since the beginning of June — and now he has to pitch at Coors Field. Look out. Coors is the obvious spot to go for offense tonight, with both teams owning implied team totals over seven runs. We have two bad pitchers going, and an explosion feels imminent. Given the struggles of Trevor Williams, I’ll give a slight lean toward the Colorado side. Give me Blackmon as the top overall bat against a bad righty, as Blackmon owns a .424 wOBA, .252 ISO, and 1.009 OPS for his career against RHP at Coors. You can’t go wrong with offense in this game tonight, but Blackmon is my first priority, and I love the Colorado GPP stack.

The Clear Top Arm

The Mets are fading fast in the NL playoff race on the heels of five straight losses, and this game is about as must win as you can get on August 29th with the opposing Cubs currently holding the second wild card spot and looking for a road sweep. deGrom’s numbers are obviously elite with a 2.56 ERA on the year to go along with 32% strikeouts and low walks. The Cubs have been hot over the last few games but are still weaker offensively without Anthony Rizzo, and deGrom’s skills make him the clear top option in a very important game.

Max Kepler scratched Wednesday; Jake Cave replaces

Kepler has been scratched from the Minnesota Twins original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Chicago White Sox due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jake Cave, who will now play center field and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which bumps C.J.Cron, Ehire Adrianza, and Jonathan Schoop up to sixth, seventh, and eighth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Twins lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Ross Detwiler on the road this evening.

Joc Pederson scratched Wednesday; Kike Hernandez replaces

Pederson has been scratched from the Los Angeles Dodgers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the San Diego Padres due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Kike Hernandez, who will now play right field and slot directly into Pederson’s vacated seventh spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Dodgers lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Trey Wingenter on the road this evening.

Khris Davis (paternity list) scratched Wednesday; Corban Joseph replaces

Davis has been scratched from the Oakland Athletics original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Kansas City Royals due to the birth of a child. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Corban Joseph, who will now handle the designated hitter duties and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which bumps Jurickson Profar and Chris Herrmann up to seventh and eighth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Athletics lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Jakob Junis on the road this evening.

Ariel Jurado has a .405 xwOBA over the last month

Ariel Jurado has the worst xwOBA on the board over the last 30 days (.405), while his 43.6% 95+ mph EV is worst on the board for the season. While it always helps getting out of Texas, it’s unlikely many parks are strong enough make a pitcher with a 15.6 K%, 6.60 DRA and all that hard contact a good bet. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA with a hard hit rate above 40% against him over the last 12 months. The Angels have a 5.44 implied run line that’s sixth best on the board tonight. Aside from Mike Trout (198 wRC+, .393 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Shohei Ohtani (140 wRC+, .249 ISO), Kole Calhoun (102 wRC+, .226 ISO) and Justin Upton (106 wRC+, .201 ISO) complete a powerful stack. David Fletcher (102 wRC+, .099 ISO) could be good for a run or two should he reach base ahead of the slugging portion of the lineup.

Kenta Maeda is up to a 26.8 K% with a .275 xwOBA this year

Kenta Maeda has struck out 18 of his last 46 batters to push his strikeout rate up to 26.8% on the season. While a 4.13 ERA matches traditional estimators, there’s a chance that there may be further upside for Maeda considering his quality contact management (28.8% 95+ mph EV) if he’s going to continue striking out batters at nearly an elite rate. His 3.41 DRA is 72 points better than his ERA and a .275 xwOBA suggests an ERA below four as well. This is a pretty strong spot for Maeda as well. The Padres have an 86 wRC+ and 26.6 K% vs RHP this year. Over the last week, San Diego has a 41 wRC+, 27 K% and 6.5 HR/FB. The drawback is hasn’t faced more than 23 batters or thrown more than 95 pitches in a start since the All-Star break, but recent efficiency has still gotten him through six innings in two of his last three starts. In another high upside spot here, an $8K price tag on DraftKings still should allow him to generate plenty of value.

Gerrit Cole has the top strikeout rate on the board (37.3%) and a .209 xwOBA last 30 days

Considering the potential workload limitations upon Max Scherzer after throwing just 71 pitches in his return from the IL, Gerrit Cole is likely tonight’s top overall arm. Cole last failed to complete six innings in May and has gone seven in seven of his last nine starts. While Scherzer has a much better overall matchup against the Orioles, Cole’s 37.3 K% exceeds Scherzer’s by 2.5 points with a slightly lower SIERA (2.88 to 2.95) with just a five point separation in xwOBA in favor of Scherzer (.249 to .254). Over the last month, however, Cole has the top xwOBA on the board (.209) and pitches in the more negative run environment in Houston. The Rays have a 102 wRC+ vs RHP, but their 22.4 K% against righties is in line with that of Baltimore (22.7%). Cole is the most expensive pitcher on the board at $12K with Scherzer more than $500 cheaper on either site, but the expectation of a higher workload with the higher strikeout rate likely gives Cole the edge here. Noah Syndergaard can’t compare to the strikeout rates (23.8%), but he’ll face a Cubs lineup without Anthony Rizzo in a favorable park and has a 1.35 ERA with a .222 xwOBA over the last month. Thor costs $2.5K less than Cole on FanDuel.

Tigers have a 20 K-BB% vs RHP and a 31.2 K% over the last week

Aaron Civale has a 1.82 ERA with non-FIP estimators all in the mid-fours through five starts. While his .253 BABIP may be unsustainable, the impressive (and also completely unsustainable thing) is that not only hasn’t he allowed a HR yet, but he hasn’t even allowed a single Barrel via Statcast! Sustainable or not, that’s pretty impressive, especially for a guy with just a 38.6 GB%. He’s also generated an 18.2 IFFB%, so it’s safe to say he’s managed contact well along with his league average strikeout rate (21.7%) and just 5.2 BB%. This is a great matchup for the rookie in Detroit too. The Tigers have a 74 wRC+ and 20 K-BB% with just a 10.6 HR/FB vs RHP. Over the last week, the Tigers have a 31.2 K% and 5.0 BB%. Civale is likely due for significant regression, but a cost of just $7K on DraftKings still gives him plenty of value in a great spot.

Anthony DeSclafani costs less than $8K in top matchup (Marlins 77 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP)

Anthony Desclafani doesn’t go very deep into games (averaging 22 batters faced), struggles against LHBs (.382 wOBA, .259 ISO) and has just an 18.8 K% over the last month. That’s the bad news. The upside is that his 10 SwStr% over the last month isn’t that far off his 10.7% mark this season (23.8 K%) and he gets a tremendous park upgrade against a lineup projected to start just two left-handed bats tonight, both below a .150 ISO vs RHP this year. In fact, none of the projected starters in tonight’s Miami lineup are above a .150 ISO vs RHP. As a team, the Marlins have a 77 wRC+, 25 K%, 6.6 BB% and 11.2 HR/FB vs RHP this year. DeSclafani’s upside is likely capped by workload limitations, but in potentially the best spot on the board, he still may provide plenty of value below $8K tonight.

The other side of this matchup is slightly interesting too. Sandy Alcantara is coming off his best start of the season in Atlanta (7 IP – 0 ER – 2 BB – 7 K) and has completed seven innings in three straight. He has just a 16.8 K%, but 11 SwStr% with an 86.7 mph aEV (.325 xwOBA). His price is $7K or less on either site against an offense with a 90 wRC+ and 16.5 K-BB% vs RHP.

RHBs have hammered Jacob Waguespack (.367 wOBA, .392 xwOBA)

Jacob Waguespack does not miss bats (18.6 K%) and owns an 88.9 mph aEV with a 3.63 ERA predicated on a .267 BABIP and 10.7 HR/FB that are likely to regress. Non-FIP estimators are closer to five, but the interesting thing is that he’s shown a reverse split thus far with RHBs (.367 wOBA) 160 points better than LHBs (.207) and this is well supported by Statcast (.392 xwOBA, .275) as well as 44.8 Hard% and 39.1 GB% for same handed batters (LHBs 30.4 Hard%, 46.4 GB%). For an Atlanta offense above five implied runs (5.13), that makes Ronald Acuna Jr. (124 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Josh Donaldson (131 wRC+, .259 ISO) the most interesting bats here and potentially makes Francisco Cervelli (four extra-base hits in nine PAs for Atlanta) and Dansby Swanson (92 wRC+, .184 ISO) your value plays. Cervelli costs less than $3K on either site.

Asher Wojciechowski has reduced Ks with the highest rate of Barrels/BBE (13.5%)

The magic is gone for Asher Wojciechowski. After striking out at least six in each of his first five starts, he’s generated a total of 21 over his last five, good for just an 18.4 K% (8.4 SwStr%) this month. Unfortunately, the hard air contact remains consistent. His 13.5% Barrels/BBE (26.4 GB%) easily towers over the slate (Ross Detwiler 10.8% is next highest), resulting in a .355 xwOBA over the last month and an ERA with estimators all above six. Nine balls have left the yard in these five starts. While it’s nice getting out of Baltimore, Washington isn’t really much of an upgrade in terms of run environment for Asher. A 6.39 implied run line gives the Nationals the second best mark on the board and tops outside Coors. This is a well-disciplined offense with a 5.7 K-BB% over the last seven days. LHBs have a particular advantage against Wojciechowksi (.376 wOBA, .367 xwOBA last calendar year), though RHBs should be fine too (.302 wOBA, .314 xwOBA, 22.1 GB%). Juan Soto (157 wRC+, .294 ISO last calendar year) is one of the top bats outside Coors on the entire slate. Anthony Rendon (164 wRC+, .283 ISO) has a 213 wRC+ over the last week. Each of the first four batters in the projected lineup (Turner, Eaton, Rendon, Soto) are above a 115 wRC+ against RHP over the last 12 months.

Pivot Off The Chalk

The most obvious mid-tier pitcher tonight is Anthony Desclafani pitching in Miami. I certainly love him in tournaments, but we can find similar upside at a similar price with Mike Foltynewicz in Toronto. While the Marlins are well known for their strikeouts against righties, the Blue Jays projected lineup tonight has the same high K% as Miami. There is more power risk for Folty, but he has been in better form recently with a 26% strikeout rate over the past month while Desclafani is at just 18.8%.

Late Night Power

Don’t forget about the last game of the night out in Anaheim, where the Rangers Ariel Jurado will pitch the bulk of the game with his terribly low 12.9% strikeout rate to left-handed batters. It’s not just the low strikeouts, he also has no ability to limit hard hits or induce ground balls, leaving the lefty outfielders Kole Calhoun and Shohei Ohtani to take advantage with their .248 and .228 ISO’s. By all mean add Mike Trout to an Angels stack as well, but the lefties are more affordable with plenty of upside of their own.