DFS Alerts
Top One Off Bat
Pete Alonso gets a matchup against the lefty Patrick Corbin. Corbin is one of the highest priced pitchers on the slate but Alonso has been great this year against left handed pitching. This year Alonso has a .419 ISO, .432 wOBA, and a 52% hard hit rate against lefties. Alonso has homered in 4 out of his last 5 games and gets a really nice price tag on DK at $4,400. He should be lower owned with the tough matchup so I really like this play in GPPs.
Favorite Stack
Tonight the Twins against Adam Plutko is my favorite stack. The Twins over the last month are 2nd in ISO and 5th in wOBA. Plutko struggles to both sides of the plate, but is a little worse to righties, giving up a .289 ISO, .351 wOBA, and a 50% fly ball rate. Plutko is a low strikeout pitcher going up against one of the best lineups in baseball. My top targets for the Twins are Garver, Sano, Cron, and Rosario.
Other tagged players: C.J. Cron, Eddie Rosario, Mitch Garver New Team, New Results
Aaron Sanchez made his first start for the Astros last Saturday. What happened that night? The Astros combined to throw a no-hitter. A NO-HITTER. Aaron Sanchez was 3-14 for Toronto with an ERA well over 5.00. It is just amazing what Houston can do with pitching, and the story of how they sat down with Gerrit Cole when they first got him is a fascinating read. On a basic level, they just have their newly acquired pitchers throw their best pitch more often. Rocket science, eh? In any case, Sanchez should be able to keep his newly found vibes rolling in a matchup against a poor Orioles team. He’s still cheap enough everywhere that I am comfortable with him as a core play in multi-pitcher formats. I’m less excited on FanDuel, where his price is up over $8,000, and you only get one pitcher. As such, he’s not a core play for me over there.
The Amazin' Mets Roll On
How about this team. The Mets are absolutely rolling right now, and they suddenly find themselves just 1 1/2 games out of a wild card spot in the National League. Syndergaard owns a 2.45 ERA in six starts since the beginning of July, with a 42/11 K/BB ratio over 40 1/3 innings in that span. While he doesn’t offer the strikeout upside of guys like Chris Sale or Gerrit Cole, he is still capable of above average strikeout games. He does a good job of limiting hard contact and is pitchig at home for a team that is firing on all cylinders. We also don’t have that elite 30%+ strikeout rate pitcher on this slate. I’ll side with Syndergaard and the red-hot Mets as my favorite pitcher on the slate, but this isn’t with absolute conviction. You can certainly pivot to some of the other options if you don’t trust Noah.
Target The LH Power
I have a bit of a thing for Reynaldo Lopez, but he is about as inconsistent as they come. Vegas likes the A’s tonight, and I am inclined to agree. Their power-laden (and now healthy) lineup matches up well with Lopez and an underwhelming Chicago bullpen. Lopez is most susceptible to lefty power, allowing a .374 wOBA with a low 31% ground ball rate to lefties this year. It’s an elite spot for Matt Olson, though his splits against RHP haven’t been as strong this season. I’m on board with him as a great option in all formats.
Elite Offensive Spot
Do we even need to try to single out any Houston hitter tonight? Just play them all. They draw a great matchup against Aaron Brooks, who the Orioles picked up off the scrap heap from the A’s a few weeks ago. Behind Brooks lies the league’s worst bullpen. I have absolutely no confidence in the ability of any Baltimore pitcher to consistently get outs against an elite lineup. Six Houston regulars own wOBA marks above .360 against RHP this year. In addition to those numbers, Brantley owns a ridiculous 8.6% strikeout rate. He’s going to make contact and seems like the best of the bunch, though I am largely splitting hairs. Gurriel has been great since the break. Alvarez looks like a star. Bregman is consistent. Correa is healthy again. Just play them all. I’d try to prioritize at least two Houston bats in cash games tonight. They are clearly the top offense on the board.
Padres bats in a good spot vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez tonight
In 19 2/3 innings this year, Chi Chi Gonzalez has really struggled with a 5.95 ERA, 5.39 xFIP, 5.95 SIERA, 1.1% K-BB and 7.6% SwStr along with a .373 xwOBA allowed. Before being called up, Gonzalez had posted a 6.10 ERA / 5.32 xFIP over 87 innings in AAA. The Padres have swung the bats well recently with an 8th best 117 wRC+ over the past 2 weeks, and have some good options to choose from in their projected lineup for tonight. Luis Urias (.357 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Eric Hosmer (.334), Fernando Tatis Jr. (.326), Wil Myers (.323), Manny Machado (.323), Josh Naylor (.322) and Hunter Renfroe (.300) are all in play. Tatis has been scorching hot over the past 2 weeks with a .456 xwOBA. Wil Myers has also begun to swing the bat much better with a .375 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. Myers is just $3.9k on Draftkings and is projected to bat 2nd. Josh Naylor ($3.5k) and Luis Urias ($2.9k) are also nice values on DK. You’ll have to pay up for Tatis ($5.6k) while Machado, Hosmer and Renfroe are all in the mid-$4k range. The Padres currently have a solid 5.09 implied total vs. Gonzalez and the Rockies.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Josh Naylor, Luis Urias, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers
Chris Paddack has .215 xwOBA allowed and 27.1% K-BB in home starts
Chris Paddack has been about as locked in as it gets in home starts this year: he owns a 2.28 ERA, 3.35 xFIP, 27.1% K-BB and .215 xwOBA allowed in home starts compared to a 3.95 ERA, 4.69 xFIP, 15.7% K-BB and .335 xwOBA allowed in road starts. Paddack gets a home start tonight vs. the Rockies, who are also much worse on the road as they have a 71 wRC+ and 27.1% K rate in road games this year. The Rockies’ lineup has just one batter (Charlie Blackmon) who has a road xwOBA greater than .305 vs. RHP on the year. Paddack’s upside is capped a bit because the Padres will not likely not let him exceed 90-95 pitches, but his affordable pricing of $9600 on Draftkings and $8400 on Fanduel means he is still very much in play despite the pitch count concerns. Paddack will have a good shot at getting the ‘W’ as the Padres are -205 favorites in this game. The Rockies currently have just a 3.47 implied line.
Soroka worth paying up for vs. Marlins on early slate
Much like Julio Teheran last night, Soroka is in a great spot vs. a terrible Marlins lineup in pitcher’s-haven Marlins Park. Soroka is in the midst of a solid year that has seen him so far post a 2.45 ERA, 3.85 xFIP, 4.22 SIERA, 19.8% K rate, 5.9% BB rate, 55% GB rate and 10.4% SwStr. Some regression is likely coming in the ERA department, but an elite .286 xwOBA allowed and 3.9% barrel rate suggest that Soroka’s estimators are not picking up on how well he manages contact. Also like his teammate Teheran, Soroka has a very wide platoon split; since 2018, Soroka has a 4.09 xFIP, 11.2 % K-BB and .319 xwOBA vs. LHB compared to a 3.60 xFIP, 15.3% K-BB and .273 xwOBA vs. RHB. Fortunately for Soroka, the Marlins project to have just one left-handed bat in the order. On the year, the Marlins have a league worst 75 wRC+ and 25.1% K rate vs. RHP, along with an 80 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Also working in Soroka’s favor is a pitcher friendly umpire calling balls and strikes in Ted Barrett. Soroka looks to be by far the best pitching option on the early slate and should be well worth his price. The Marlins currently have just a 3.12 implied line.
Indians’ bats are a sneaky option vs. struggling Odorizzi
With Jose Ramirez looking like himself again and newly acquired Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes in the lineup, the Indians suddenly have a dangerous offense. They’ll face Jake Odorizzi, who started the season hot but has really fallen apart of late. Since July 1st, Odorizzi has posted a 6.21 ERA, 5.60 xFIP and 9.9% K-BB with a 1.55 WHIP, 2.2 HR/9 and 88.4 MPH aEV. Odorizzi has a bit of a reverse platoon split, but can be targeted from both sides of the plate. Carlos Santana (.375 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Franmil Reyes (.367), Jason Kipnis (.358), Jose Ramirez (.339), Francisco Lindor (.337), Tyler Naquin (.336) and Yasiel Puig (.324) are all good options tonight. Jason Kipnis has been the Indians’ hottest hitter with a .427 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Jose Ramirez with a .414 mark. Franmil Reyes has been cold (.227) but costs only $3.4k on Draftkings. Other good values include Yasiel Puig ($4k), Jose Ramirez ($4.3k), Jason Kipnis ($4.1k) and Tyler Naquin ($3.5k). The Indians should see decently low ownership Saturday night and make for an intriguing stack in tournaments. They currently have a 4.55 implied line.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Yasiel Puig, Franmil Reyes, Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Tyler Naquin Adam Plutko has 6.16 SIERA, 7.3% SwStr over past 30 days
Adam Plutko does a good job limiting walks (3.7% BB rate) but doesn’t miss many bats (14.9% K rate, 8.2% SwStr) and gives up plenty of homeruns (2.28 HR/9) which has ultimately led him to a 5.28 SIERA and 5.56 xFIP on the year over 59.1 innings pitched. Plutko has been even worse of late, posting a 6.16 SIERA, 6.27 xFIP, 5.4% K-BB and a 7.3% SwStr over the past 30 days. Plutko’s lack of swing-and-miss stuff doesn’t figure to play well against a free-swinging Twins offense that leads the league in homeruns and slugging percentage vs. RHP this year. Even with Nelson Cruz hitting the IL, the Twins will have plenty of good options in their lineup: Luis Arraez (.359 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Jorge Polanco (.358), Max Kepler (.353), CJ Cron (.345), Eddie Rosario (.340), Miguel Sano (.338), Marwin Gonzalez (.317) and Mitch Garver (.311) are all options in the Twins’ projected order. Miguel Sano has been their hottest hitter over the past 2 weeks with a .417 xwOBA. Marwin Gonzalez is just $3.3k on Draftkings, while Luis Arraez ($4k) and CJ Cron ($4.1k) are also nice values. The Twins will also have the benefit of a hitter-friendly umpire in Marvin Hudson. They currently have a 5.45 implied line vs. Plutko and the Indians tonight.
Other tagged players: Luis Arraez, Max Kepler, C.J. Cron, Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Marwin Gonzalez, Mitch Garver Aaron Sanchez made clear improvements in his first start with the ‘Stros
It has only been one start, but it seems that the Astros have worked their magic with yet another starter. In his first start with the Astros, Aaron Sanchez threw 6 no-hit innings, striking out 6 while waking only 2. He posted a 13% SwStr, 33.3% hard contact rate and a .201 xwOBA allowed. He didn’t throw a single sinker, which had been his worst pitch in terms of xwOBA allowed and whiff rate, after previously throwing it 22% of the time. Sanchez also increased his curveball usage up to 30.4% from 22.6% in his first start, noteworthy because it has been by far his best pitch (.235 xwOBA allowed, 37% whiff rate). Tonight, Sanchez gets a great matchup with the Orioles who have just an 87 wRC+ and 22.7% K rate vs. RHP on the year. Sanchez remains at an affordable price across the industry; he’s just $6.9k on Draftkings and $8.2k on Fanduel. If you are not sold on Sanchez after a 1 game sample size, consider that he has actually been pitching much better over the past month; he comes into tonight’s game with a 3.92 SIERA, 20.2% K-BB and 1.16 WHIP over the past 30 days. The Orioles have a 3.94 implied line tonight vs. Sanchez.
Brewers lineup in a great spot vs. 21 year old Allard in Miller Park
Kolby Allard gets his first MLB start of 2019 (and 2nd of his young career) for the Rangers tonight vs. the Brewers in Miller Park. Allard’s stats in AAA this year were nothing to write home about, as he posted a 4.17 ERA, 4.65 FIP and 4.38 xFIP over 110 innings and 20 starts. Projection systems have him as a roughly 5.50 ERA guy going forward, although that number is inflated a bit because his home park (Globe Life Park) is a tough environment for pitchers. Still, Allard is a guy to target until further notice, especially with a lineup like the Brewers’ that has a number of good options vs. LHP. Christian Yelich (.425 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Manny Pina (.421), Yasmani Grandal (.392), Mike Moustakas (.375), Ryan Braun (.355), Lorenzo Cain (.344) and Keston Hiura (.336) are all great options in the projected order tonight. Pina costs just $3.2k on Draftkings and is a great value if he is indeed in the order tonight. Lorenzo Cain should lead off and is just $4.1 on DK, while Yasmani Grandal ($4.2k) and Mike Moustakas ($4.4k) are nice values as well. Also working in Milwaukee’s favor tonight will be a very hitter-friendly ump calling balls and strikes with Stu Scheurwater behind the plate. The Brewers currently have a 5.63 implied total.
Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal, Manny Pina, Keston Hiura Dakota Hudson has worst 30-day SIERA on the board tonight (min. 20 IP)
Dakota Hudson has just a 3.99 ERA this year, but his 5.37 FIP, 4.99 xFIP, 4.98 SIERA, 41 % hard contact rate, 1.58 WHIP and 6.8 K-BB% all scream regression. Hudson does do a good job keeping the ball out of the air (57.6% GB rate, 20.5% FB rate) but even with an elite GB rate, he does not miss enough bats and induce enough soft contact to maintain his current ERA. His .352 xwOBA allowed is further evidence of this. Hudson has been even worse over the past 30 days with a 5.39 SIERA, 5.76 ERA, 2.16 HR/9 and 52.7% hard contact rate. Tonight, Hudson faces the Pirates who project to be very low-owned and could be a nice contrarian stack. Josh Bell (.390 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Starling Marte (.382), Bryan Reynolds (.367), Jose Osuna (.342), Corey Dickerson (.328) and Adam Frazier (.326) are all solid options tonight vs. Hudson. Corey Dickerson has been their hottest hitter with a .436 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Starling Marte (.422). Also in play is Colin Moran, who has slumped of late but has a 106 wRC+ vs. RHP since 2018 and is very cheap across the industry. The Pirates have just a 4.08 implied total which seems pretty low considering they have a respectable 101 wRC+ vs. RHP this year and that Hudson has been more lucky than good in 2019.
Other tagged players: Colin Moran, Starling Marte, Adam Frazier, Corey Dickerson There is value and upside to be had in the Royals’ lineup vs. Edwin Jackson
The Royals will face Edwin Jackson tonight, who somehow finds himself with yet another chance in the Majors despite a 11.12 (!) ERA, 6.46 xFIP and 5.74 SIERA over 28 innings this year. Jackson also has an atrocious .437 xwOBA allowed, 16.4% barrel rate and 90.9 MPH aEV. The Royals have just a 93 wRC+ over the past 30 days and an 88 wRC+ vs. RHP on the year, but they do have plenty of intriguing options in their lineup tonight vs. Jackson: Jorge Soler (.368 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Hunter Dozier (.360), Alex Gordon (.343) and Whit Merrifield (.330) are the obvious options who will be batting in the top 4 of the Royals’ order. Also in play are Ryan O’Hearn (.294), Cheslor Cuthbert (.263), Nicky Lopez (.239) and Bubba Starling (.230). While it’s hard to ignore how bad they’ve been, Lopez and Starling are dirt cheap across the industry in a great matchup tonight. Ryan O’Hearn is also dirt cheap at just $2.8k on Draftkings. Alex Gordon is a great value as well at just $3.8k on DK and $2.9k on FD, while Soler, Dozier and Merrifield are all affordably priced from $4.4k-$4.6k on Draftkings and $3.6k-$3.8k on Fanduel. These guys make for good cash game plays and it makes sense to have exposure in GPPs as well. The Royals currently have a solid 5.50 implied total vs. Jackson and the Tigers.
Other tagged players: Alex Gordon, Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozier, Ryan O'Hearn