DFS Alerts
Immense Potential Against a LHP
Boston lines up well against the Orioles and their woeful pitching staff. The surface numbers still look good for John Means, but he has an xFIP that is almost two and a half runs higher than his 2.94 ERA. The .253 opposing BABIP probably won’t last for the rest of the season. Means is facing the Red Sox for the fourth time this year, and while they haven’t tagged him too bad just yet, it’s coming. Means has just nine total strikeouts in those first three outings. J.D. Martinez has made a living on smashing lefties and should be viewed as a prime play in all formats. He owns a .473 wOBA, .388 ISO, and 1.170 OPS against lefties this year. Fire him up with confidence in all formats.
Highest Strikeout Rate on Tonight's Slate
The highest K% and K/9 on tonight’s slate doesn’t belong to Justin Verlander, it belongs to Shane Bieber, with his 31.6 K% and 11.38 K/9 on the year. Tonight, Bieber takes on a Royals team that ranks 24th in team wOBA on the year, and 29th in ISO over the past 30 days. Bieber and the Indians are very strong -290 favorites in this game, giving Bieber a good shot at the win, quality start, and a high strikeout total as well.
Astros in an underrated spot vs. Mike Minor
Mike Minor is another pitcher who started the year surprisingly well but has struggled of late. Minor seemingly broke out to start the year, pitching to a 2.74 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 4.11 xFIP with a 26.1% K rate and 7.8% BB rate despite pitching half his games in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. Over the last month, Minor does have a 3.08 ERA, but a 5.23 SIERA, 5.57 xFIP, 48.6% FB rate and 9.5% K-BB suggest he’s been pitching well above his head. The Astros have a league-leading 125 wRC+ at home, as well as a league-leading 136 wRC+ vs. LHP. Jose Altuve (.476 xwOBA vs. LHP), George Springer (.440), Yordan Alvarez (.392), Robinson Chirinos (.380), Alex Bregman (.377), Yuli Gurriel (.329) and Michael Brantley (.307) are all great options in the Houston projected order. Gurriel has been the ‘Stros hottest hitter over the past 14 days with a .402 xwOBA, followed by Alex Bregman with a .389 mark. Jose Altuve continues to be underpriced on Draftkings with a price tag of just $4k. Bregman, Brantley and Gurriel can all be had for under $4.3k on DK, while Robinson Chirinos is also a great value at just $3.1k. The Astros don’t project for very high ownership despite how they’ve mashed LHP this year, Minor’s recent struggles, as well as the fact that they are a decently affordable stack. They currently have a 4.85 implied line vs. Minor and the Rangers tonight.
Other tagged players: Alex Bregman, Yulieski Gurriel, George Springer, Robinson Chirinos, Mike Minor, Michael Brantley
Low strikeout pitcher (13.9% last 30 days) facing a contact prone offense (19.4% vs RHP) in Pittsburgh
Jake Arrieta is pitching with bone spurs, striking out more than four only once over the last month (five starts) and that was six Marlins. His attempt to compensate has involved ditching his slider in favor of more change-ups and curveballs with his sinker, generating a 55.3 GB% over this span. His estimators have mostly remained in the mid-fours, believing a .330 BABIP over the last 30 days isn’t sustainable and his .327 xwOBA over this span is also 41 points lower than actual. Lots of hard contact (88.9 mph aEV on the season), but he’s able to keep it on the ground (6.7% Barrels/BBE), though a reduced strikeout rate would drive the Barrels total up either way. The Pirates don’t strike out much in the first place (19.4% vs RHP), but offer very little power. The projected lineup names just two players with an ISO above .200 vs RHP over the last calendar year. However, considering the .387 wOBA/.384 xwOBA LHBs have against Arreita over the same span with a 43.4 GB% more than 10 points less than RHBs, all five lefties in the projected lineup are certainly viable if starting tonight. That includes Adam Frazier (123 wRC+, .177 ISO), Bryan Reynolds (147 wRC+, .167 ISO), Josh Bell (157 wRC+, .299 ISO), Corey Dickerson (121 wRC+, .224 ISO) and Colin Moran (117 wRC+, .170 ISO). The Pirates find themselves currently sitting at 5.25 implied runs, a total good enough to appear on the top third of the board tonight.
Other tagged players: Adam Frazier, Bryan Reynolds, Corey Dickerson, Colin Moran, Jake Arrieta
Savage Lineup Faces Struggling Pitcher
Kyle Freeland has a 2.27 HR/9 that is the fourth-worst rate among all pitchers with at least 60 innings this season, but if you exclude his home games in Coors Field… …he still has a 2.08 HR/9 with 7 HRs allowed in 30.1 innings. Tonight he gets a nightmare matchup against a savage Yankees lineup that has the highest implied run total on the slate and ranks second in team wOBA, slugging percentage, and OPS over the past 30 days. Whoever the Yankees put in the lineup is in play tonight, and I’ll be targeting the top of the order – DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, and Edwin Encarnaction.
Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Aaron Judge, Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez Tyler Mahle is dirt cheap on both major sites tonight in good match-up vs. STL
Tyler Mahle has a 4.82 ERA on the year, but a 3.82 xFIP, 4.03 SIERA, .319 xwOBA allowed, 24.3% K rate and 6% BB rate are all encouraging signs that he is due for some positive regression. Mahle will be facing the Cardinals at home tonight where he’s been a much better pitcher in his young career; he owns a .349 xwOBA allowed and 17.8% K rate on the road compared to a .299 xwOBA and 28.2% K rate at home. Mahle also has a wide platoon split with a .294 xwOBA vs. righties compared to a .364 xwOBA allowed vs. lefties. He projects to face only 4 lefties in the Cardinals’ lineup tonight, and those 4 lefties (Edman, Fowler, Wieters, Wong) have a combined .311 xwOBA vs. RHP this year, so they shouldn’t be too much of a threat. Overall, the Cardinals have a 88 wRC+ and 22.7% K rate vs. RHP on the year. Their offense has gone cold recently as they have a 2nd worst 83 wRC+ over the past 30 days. Mahle is no ace, but he is under $6.5k on both major sites in a decent matchup where he projects to be one of the better PTS/$ plays on the board tonight.
A’s bats are an intriguing stack vs. struggling Odorizzi
Odorizzi had a surprisingly good start to the season, which saw him post a 1.92 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 4.32 xFIP ad 20.5% K-BB with a .284 xwOBA allowed up until mid-June. Since June 15th, Odorizzi has posted an ugly 6.46 ERA, 5.84 xFIP and 9.5% K-BB with a .355 xwOBA allowed. His four-seamer, easily his most used pitch with a 58% usage rate, had a .277 xwOBA against earlier in the year but has recently been shelled for a .386 xwOBA against since June 15th. The Athletics come into this game with a 5th best 116 wRC+ over the past 30 days and a 101 wRC+ vs. RHP on the year. Matt Olson (.405 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Matt Chapman (.384), Mark Canha (.360), Robbie Grossman (.351), Marcus Semien (.326), Ramon Laureano (.325) and Khris Davis (.324) are all good options in the projected order tonight. Olson has been their hottest hitter over the past 2 weeks with a .474 xwOBA, followed by Matt Chapman with a .448 xwOBA and Ramon Laureano with a .421 xwOBA. Though he’s not been his usual self this year, Khris Davis might be the best value in the lineup with just a $3.4k price on Draftkings. Of all the hitters just mentioned, only Davis and Robbie Grossman ($3.8k on DK) will have a price tag under $4.4k, but none go above $4.8k. The A’s should see decently low ownership in this matchup and have a 4.95 implied line in seemingly underrated hitter’s park Target Field. Keep an eye on the weather as we get closer to lock.
Other tagged players: Matt Olson, Marcus Semien, Khris Davis, Jake Odorizzi, Ramon Laureano, Mark Canha, Robbie Grossman Bieber has lowest 30-day SIERA on the board, gets nice match-up vs. KC
Shane Bieber has certainly been a breakout pitcher in 2019, posting a 3.49 ERA, 3.05 xFIP, 3.20 SIERA and 31.6% K rate compared to just a 5.1% BB rate. When Bieber does give up hard contact it is often loud (42.6% hard contact rate, 90.7 MPH aEV) but he keeps a lot of it on the ground (46.4% GB rate) and his K/BB ratio is so good that his xwOBA allowed still sits at a solid .309. Over the last 30 days, Bieber has shown even better numbers with a 2.47 SIERA, 2.19 xFIP, 30.5% K-BB and a .256 xwOBA allowed. Bieber has a pretty wide platoon split in his 2 years in the Majors; he owns a .344 xwOBA allowed and 21.7% K-BB vs. lefties compared to just a .282 xwOBA allowed and 24.3% K-BB vs. righties. Fortunately for Bieber, he projects to face just 2 lefties compared to 7 righties in his matchup tonight with the Royals. On the season, the Royals have a 91 wRC+ and 22.5% K rate vs. RHP, and over the last 30 days they have a 97 wRC+. They project to have just 4 batters in the lineup who have an xwOBA greater than .285 vs. RHP on the year. Bieber projects to have catcher Roberto Perez behind the plate, who is one of the better pitch framers in the league. Bieber is under $11k on both major sites and as of right now and does not project to see crazy ownership. The Royals currently have a 3.42 implied line.
Pitching may be undervalued in extremely negative run environment in San Francisco
Matt Boyd (32.1%), Charlie Morton (31.2%), Stephen Strasburg (29.1%) and Trevor Bauer (27.4%) own the top four strikeout rates on the board tonight. None are cheaper than $9.6K on either site and all are pitching in difficult situations in terms of weather, park factors and/or opposing offense. It might make some sense for players to drop down a few hundred dollars more and take a look at the pitching matchup in San Francisco tonight. Neither Noah Syndergaard (23.4 K%, 4.55 ERA, 4.15 SIERA), nor Madison Bumgarner (24.9 K%, 3.86 ERA, .399 SIERA, 9.6% Barrels/BBE, .330 xwOBA) are pitching up to their normal standards and expectations, but both may have some value tonight. In Syndergaard’s case, while a 17.0 K-BB% is not as impressive as usual, he’s been an exceptional contact manager (85.8 mph aEV, 4.0% Barrels/BBE, 29.4% 95+ mph EV all top the board tonight), projecting a .277 xwOBA 32 points below his actual mark with a 3.30 DRA. Bumgarner has not been a strong contact manager, but he is up to a 29.8 K% over the last month and has walked just 5.1% of batters on the year. He also pitches in a great park that is very forgiving towards a lot of that hard contact. The Mets do have a 114 wRC+ and 17.2 HR/FB vs LHP, but that comes with a 15.7 K-BB%. The Giants have a 140 wRC+ over the last week, but are coming off a series at Coors and own an 87 wRC+ vs RHP with a 74 wRC+ and 8.8 HR/FB at home.
Other tagged players: Madison Bumgarner Matt Harvey's has narrowed his platoon split, but that's not good news (RHBs .345 wOBA last 12 months)
Matt Harvey held the Mariners to a single run through 5.2 innings in his return from more than a month and a half on the IL, but walked as many as he struck out (three each) and has some unfavorable numbers on the season, including a 5.9 K-BB%, 20.8 HR/FB, 31.2 Hard-Soft%, 6.88 ERA, 5.53 SIERA, 7.74 DRA, .387 xwOBA and 90.4 mph aEV. There are no silver linings those clouds. It may seem like good news that Harvey has narrowed his platoon split over the last calendar year, but the reason for that is that RHBs are hitting him fairly well too (.345 wOBA, .337 xwOBA). This is bad news against a predominantly right-handed Houston lineup, at least at the top of the order. With a 5.41 implied run line that’s second highest on the board, the Houston offense could make short work of Harvey. Among the first five in the projected order, only Jose Altuve (92 wRC+, .131 ISO) is below a 140 wRC+ or .189 ISO vs RHP. Yordan Alvarez (186 wRC+, .348 ISO, 57.5 Hard%) has had a remarkable start to his major league career, while George Springer (156 wRC+, .267 ISO) and Alex Bregman (153 wRC+, .254 ISO) can deal out same handed pitcher violence like few other RHBs in the league.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Matt Harvey Kyle Wright has struggled at the major league level (17.2 K% & BB% in 20 innings)
Kyle Wright will replace Julio Teheran tonight. Wright has some prospect shine (#4 org., #46 MLB with a 55 Future Value grade according to Fangraphs), but the 23 year-old had a modest 15.5 K-BB% in 70.1 AAA innings and has struggled through 20 career major league innings with batters from either side of the plate owning an xwOBA above .370 against him and exactly as many walks as strikeouts (17.2% each). Wright may also be a pitcher the Nationals can run on according to the PlateIQ Stolen Base Ratings (premium subscription required). This adds some value to lower power bats like Trea Turner (105 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Adam Eaton (112 wRC+, .117 ISO) atop the a lineup implied for 4.95 runs tonight (tied for fifth on the board) under likely hitter friendly conditions in Atlanta tonight.
Other tagged players: Adam Eaton, Kyle Wright LHBs are in a strong spot against Dakota Hudson (.379 wOBA) in Cincy
Dakota Hudson has been increasing his strikeouts (21.4 K%, 12.5 SwStr% last four starts). Combining anything near a league average strikeout rate with his 60.1 GB% would make him an interesting pitcher. However, after allowing just a single HR over a 10 start stretch, he’s also allowed five of them over this four start stretch and sustains a double digit walk rate on the year (10.3%). Due to the power surge, his xwOBA has actually increased over the last month (.351). The ground balls keep the overall barrels reasonable (7.3% per BBE) despite contact that leans a bit too much on the hard side (89.4 mph aEV, 41.9% 95+ mph EV). He also has a substantial platoon split which favors Jesse Winker (117 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Joey Votto (94 wRC+, .139 ISO) at the top of the order, along with Scooter Gennett (103 wRC+, .176 ISO) in the middle. LHBs own a .379 wOBA with an xwOBA 10 points higher and a 49.4 GB% that’s 20 points lower than RHBs against Hudson. While this trio of lefties hasn’t performed up to expected standards this season, price tags at $4K or below on DraftKings and $3.1K or below on FanDuel serve to compensate in a power friendly park that could provide an additional weather boost tonight. The Reds (4.91) are one of just six teams implied for 4.9 runs or higher tonight.
Other tagged players: Dakota Hudson, Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto Start of TBR-NYY will be delayed due to rain Thursday
The start of the matchup between the Tampa Bay and New York Yankees on Thursday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Yankee have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Domingo German and Yonny Chirinos not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he believes that this contest will play through to conclusion following the initial delay.
As reported by: the New York Yankees via Twitter Other tagged players: Yonny Chirinos
Laughable Splits
Matt Harvey is at it again. He has shown some signs of life against right-handed batters the past couple seasons, but this guy is a high-level jabroni against lefties. He has allowed a .273 ISO on 52% hard hits with just 17.8% K and 38% GB to LHB this season. I love Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley tonight, but with salary being at a premium, I’ll start with the savings of Josh Reddick with his low 10.9% K rate against righties.
Good Spot For The Lefties
The Cardinals’ Dakota Hudson has been very tough on righties with ground balls and soft contact, but against left-handed batters, we’re looking at a pitcher with low strikeouts, high walks, a lot of hard contact and just moderate 49% ground balls. Jesse Winker leads off with good contact skills, and a .239 ISO on 26.7% line drives and 43% hard contact. He’s nicely priced for cash games and is a key part of any Cincinnati stack.