DFS Alerts
Start of DET-CHW will be delayed due to rain Tuesday
The start of the matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox on Tuesday evening will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the White Sox have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Reynaldo Lopez and Matt Boyd not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the potential lengthy initial delay does increase the chances of a late postponement.
As reported by: the Chicago White Sox via Twitter
Taylor Clarke owns the highest Barrels/BBE on the board (13.6%)
With great hitting weather and elevated run lines throughout the league on a full slate, perhaps the Dodgers could fly a bit under the radar in an extremely negative run environment out west. However, their 5.52 implied run line is still fifth best on the board as they’ll take a lineup that hammers RHP up against a rookie, who’s allowed seven HRs over his last four starts and has generated a board high 13.6% Barrels/BBE. While batters from either side are above a .350 wOBA against Taylor Clarke, LHBs have a .407 wOBA (.399 xwOBA). With the exception of rookie Edwin Rios (167 wRC+, 60 Hard% through his first 11 PAs), the projected lineup for the Dodgers offers four additional LHBs with Alex Verdugo being the low man by both wRC+ (122) and ISO (.194) vs RHP over the last calendar year. Joc Pederson (130 wRC+, .304 ISO), Cody Bellinger (173 wRC+, .295 ISO) and Max Muncy (151 wRC+, .304 ISO) have been absolute destruction with the platoon advantage. In addition, each of the first seven batters in the projected order are above a 135 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Alex Verdugo, Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Edwin Rios, Taylor Clarke
LHBs have a .380 xwOBA against Daniel Mengden over the last calendar year
Daniel Mengden struck out five Cardinals, did not allow a run and just four hits through six innings last time out. It was his best start of the season, although he’s allowed one run or less in four of six outings. However, he owns just a 6.2 K-BB% with a 4.03 ERA the pure product of a 3.0 HR/FB that’s completely unsustainable. His .327 xwOBA, 5.48 SIERA and 5.59 DRA all suggest major regression in his future and the Twins (112 wRC+, 20.3 K%, 16.7 HR/FB vs RHP) could be an immediate cause of some of that fall back. LHBs have just a .314 wOBA, but a .380 xwOBA against Mendgen over the last calendar year with a 50% hard hit rate and 36.2 GB%. LHBs projected to be in the Minnesota lineup tonight include Max Kepler (133 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Jorge Polanco (144 wRC+, .201 ISO), Marwin Gonzalez (96 wRC+, .155 ISO), Luis Arraez (168 wRC+, .158 ISO) and Jason Castro (120 wRC+, .280 ISO). The Twins are implied for a healthy 4.75 runs that’s merely good enough to rest in the middle of today’s board.
Other tagged players: Jorge Polanco, Marwin Gonzalez, Luis Arraez, Jason Castro, Daniel Mengden Jake Junis has allowed multiple HRs in six of last 13 starts
Jakob Junis has allowed multiple HRs in six of his last 13 starts, which is perhaps the most glaring stat here upon viewing conditions that are expected to strongly boost overall offense and power in Kansas City tonight. Another glaring stat is that his 29.7 Hard-Soft% is worst on the board, as his 89.6 mph aEV has led to a .354 xwOBA that’s just two points removed from his actual mark. Despite 5.12 implied runs, the Tribe is barely inside the top third of the board tonight and could go over-looked in this spot due to offensive struggles this season (90 wRC+, 13.7 HR/FB vs RHP), but this is a strong spot for them in a park that is generally power suppressing, though shouldn’t be tonight. LHBs have hammered Junis to the tune of a .362 wOBA and 45.2 Hard% over the last 12 months. While only Francisco Lindor (109 wRC+, .217 ISO) and Carlos Santana (118 wRC+, .213 ISO) are above a .200 ISO over the last calendar year against RHP, Oscar Mercado (142 wRC+, .185 ISO), Jason Kipnis (121 wRC+, .196 ISO), Jose Ramirez (95 wRC+, .190 ISO) and Jake Bauers (93 wRC+, .172 ISO) have shown some pop as well.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Oscar Mercado, Jose Ramirez, Jakob Bauers, Jakob Junis I'll Take Some Power With That
The Brewers and Reds square off in a home run friendly ballpark with a power split advantage on both sides. For Milwaukee, it will be the lefties against Tanner Roark, while for the Reds, they face a reverse splits righty in Chase Anderson who has allowed a .237 ISO this season after a similar .239 mark in 2018. Those splits put Eugenio Suarez at the top of the list with his .215 ISO and 47% hard hits against righties. And if you’re into hot streaks, he has three home runs in the last two games, so get on board before the salary rises.
Zack Wheeler averages 27 batters per start, leads the board with a 13.8 Hard-Soft%
Zack Wheeler is an interesting arm whom you’d not expect to be well represented tonight. After all, he owns a 4.51 ERA and the Yankees (120 wRC+ vs RHP, 187 wRC+ last seven days both split highs today) pummeled him for nine runs less than a month ago? However, owns a strong 18.3 K-BB% this season with a board best 13.8 Hard-Soft%. Some more impressive numbers are a 3.14 DRA, 34.4% 95+ mph EV and .303 xwOBA. While none of these are Cy Young contender material, this is a pitcher who costs $10K and goes deep into games. He has averaged 27 batters faced per start and that beating from the Yankees is the only time he’s failed to complete six innings in his last 15 starts. Wheeler could also have some intangibles in his corner tonight. He’s pitching in a negative run environment where the Yankees lose the DH (likely Edwin Encarnacion) and will be facing an offense who just played a game in London two days ago. Hard to say the Yankees might not be revved up for a series with their cross town rivals, but there’s a chance there’s a bit of a hangover effect from bludgeoning the Red Sox over-seas this weekend. Wheeler’s looked good in great parks last two times out, allowing a total of two runs in Philadelphia and at Wrigley and would return good value with a similar effort here.
Can't Pass On This Salary
Houston gets a trip to Coors Field, and for the most part, their salaries have not been boosted enough across the industry. While German Marquez is a talented pitcher, he has not been able to beat his home park this season, and his strikeouts are way down at just 17.5% against left-handed batters. With Michael Brantley striking out just 8% of the time against righties and hitting the ball hard at a 39% clip, we can count on plenty of balls in play, with his upside boosted by a prime lineup spot in the middle of the order.
That's Just Too Cheap
I would love to pay up for double aces tonight, and it may be possible in some lineups, but in order to keep the batting upside intact, I’ll look to Matt Strahm as a cheaper option, especially for cash games. Despite the Giants onslaught Monday night, this is not a very good team against lefties, ranking 29th in ISO and 30th in wOBA this season. Strahm looked sharp in his return from the IL with nine strikeouts in six innings and his elite control should put him in the drivers seat tonight at a very likeable salary.
So Many Aces
The top of the pitching pool is loaded with names like Bauer, Corbin, Morton and Boyd, before even getting to more upside with names like Paxton and Price. I’m going to recommend spreading out among these aces tonight, but on DK/FDRFT, my first look for cash games will be Charlie Morton at home against the Orioles. Morton has been consistent in getting 6-7 quality innings, and his 29.9% K rate is higher than all the other aces besides Matt Boyd tonight. His ground ball ability combined with all the ground ball hitters for Baltimore give him a clear path to some easy innings along with all his strikeout upside.
So Many Aces
Pitching is absolutely loaded tonight, and with all the top pitchers projecting similarly, I recommend spreading out your exposure to these aces. On FD and Yahoo, my favorite for the salary is Matt Boyd. He has been allowing home runs, but in this day and age, that just doesn’t bother me, it’s all about strikeouts. At 30.8% strikeouts, he has the highest K rate of any of the aces, and his low 4.8% walks put him well ahead of Bauer, Corbin and Morton. I am happy with Boyd in all formats tonight.
Charlie Morton leads the slate in several major categories (2.61 DRA, .271 xwOBA, 5.0% Barrels/BBE)
Charlie Morton might be the top overall arm on the slate tonight, even if he’s not the most expensive on either site. Among those with more than three starts, his 29.9 K% is behind only Matt Boyd (30.8%) and his 28.2 Z-O-Swing% is behind only Aaron Nola (26.6%). His 51.9 GB% is similarly second on the board (German Marquez 52.4%). Combined with an 86.5 mph aEV, this also generates a 5.0% Barrels/BBE mark that’s best on the board tonight, resulting in a .271 xwOBA for the season and .264 xwOBA over the last month that are both also best. He also is the slate leader in DRA (2.61). Morton also has the advantage of one of the few negative run and climate controlled environments under the dome tonight. Although the Orioles have a 128 wRC+ over the last week, this is still a great matchup for Morton, as they own just an 85 wRC+, 15.4 K-BB% and 11.3 Hard-Soft% vs RHP this year. Taking all of these factors together, one has to wonder why Charlie Morton isn’t the most expensive pitcher on either site. He probably should be considered the top value among tonight’s six $10K pitchers.
Weather and pitcher platoon issues could lead to a high scoring game in Cincinnati
Although a full one-third of the board (10 teams) are implied for at least five runs on a night where there’s good hitting weather across the league, Cincinnati is the only park outside Coors where both teams reach that mark. In fact, both the Brewers and Reds are at exactly five runs currently, making this an affair where players should look for some fireworks.
Chase Anderson has a 24.3 K% on the season with an 81.5 Z-Contact%. His 37.4 GB% could be a problem here, though he’s managed contact well (86.1 mph aEV, 31.5% 95+ mph EV are both top three on the slate). His 4.42 ERA is in line with most estimators, aside from a more optimistic 3.86 DRA. Anderson has a substantial reverse split (RHBs .366 wOBA, .379 xwOBA last calendar year, LHBs .280 & .278), so it’s guys like Eugenio Suarez (101 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), who has a team leading 241 wRC+ over the last week, and Nick Senzel (84 wRC+, .187 ISO) that players should be looking at if the Reds have the foresight to push the latter towards the top of the lineup tonight.
On the other side, Tanner Roark has a 3.36 ERA with a matching FIP, but all of his other estimators are a full run higher due to an 8.1 HR/FB that seems unsustainable in this park and run scoring environment, especially with an 89.1 mph aEV. In fact, the regression has already begun with five HRs over his last five starts. Roark has a more standard platoon issue. LHBs have a .353 wOBA and xwOBA over the last calendar year, while RHBs have a .279 and .284 mark. That bodes extremely well for a lineup full of powerful LHBs in Yasmani Grandal (138 wRC+, .257 ISO), Christian Yelich (198 wRC+, .377 ISO), Mike Moustakas (113 wRC+, .249 ISO) and Eric Thames (120 wRC+, .254 ISO).
Pittsburgh bats (151 wRC+, 15.1 K% last seven days) could surprise under favorable conditions
Kyle Hendricks hit the IL two weeks back with a shoulder issue and returns without the benefit of any rehab starts. His 4.4 BB% is lowest on the board with a 20.6 K% right on his career rate. There are two pitchers in Texas who better his 86.1 mph aEV, but nobody else on today’s board. A 3.86 ERA is below all of his non-FIP estimators due to a 9.9 HR/FB and seven of his 40 runs being unearned. Conditions are not favorable towards his usage tonight, while the Pirates are also a contact prone offense (103 wRC+, 19.2 K% vs RHP) that’s been red hot (151 wRC+, 15.1 K% and 23.1 HR/FB over the last week). While Hendricks has fared quite well against LHBs over the last calendar year (.292 wOBA, .274 xwOBA), a weather boost along with workload uncertainty would make this an interesting spot for Pittsburgh bats, implied for just 4.22 runs. Josh Bell (160 wRC+, .291 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Adam Frazier (123 wRC+, .188 ISO), Bryan Reynolds (151 wRC+, .171 ISO), and Corey Dickerson (133 wRC+, .240 ISO) all generally find themselves in the top half of the order and only Bell costs more than $4.2K on either site.
Other tagged players: Adam Frazier, Kyle Hendricks, Corey Dickerson, Bryan Reynolds Too Cheap Against A Lefty
The St. Louis Cardinals are really cold right now, and that has led to them being really underpriced on DraftKings/FantasyDraft. LeBlanc has a .337 wOBA with a .200 ISO and a 15.1% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. He also has a 35.5% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters. Paul Goldschmidt has a .266 ISO with a .406 wOBA with a 51.5% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitchers since the start of 2018. He’s slumping right now, but I think he’s too cheap for the talent.
Value Play With Home Run Upside
Wojciechowski really struggled in 2017 with the Reds, and he’s getting another shot in the Majors tonight against the Rays. He has a 5.50 xFIP with a 2.02 HR/9 and a 23.6% strikeout rate in AAA this season. In 2017, Wojciechowski had a .410 wOBA with a .285 ISO and a 47.4% fly ball rate against left-handed hitters. I really like to use Pham and Choi against fly ball pitchers. Choi has a .184 ISO with a .356 wOBA and a 40.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season.