DFS Alerts
Searching For a Cheaper Arm
There is not a lot to love in terms of cheaper pitching options today, so I will make my decisions on that front in terms of matchup and price tag. Zach Plesac is particularly cheap on DK/FDRFT, and he has pitched well since his call up to the major leagues. He carries a nice combination of safety and upside in a matchup against a weak Detroit offense. On FD, Rick Porcello seems to be a better option as a value. Plesac is priced up over there, and Porcello’s strike throwing ability offers some potential against a weaker Toronto lineup.
Other tagged players: Zach Plesac
Great Options in a Favorable Matchup
The choice for top hitter is site dependent today, as FanDuel is excluding the CHW/TEX game and its 11 1/2 Vegas total from their main slate. While I will prioritize the CHW/TEX game on DK/FDRAFT, on FD, I’ll side with Francisco Lindor as my top play. The Cleveland offense has been much better in the month of June, ranking in the top six in both wOBA and ISO over the last three weeks. Lindor is hitting nearly .300 this month, and he should thrive in a favorable matchup against Daniel Norris. Jordan Luplow is also too cheap on FD given his fantastic numbers against lefties.
Other tagged players: Jordan Luplow Top Pitcher on the Slate
It’s obviously a close call between Verlander and deGrom as the top pitcher of the day, but I’ll side with deGrom in cash games since his price tag is a little more affordable on every DFS site, and his matchup isn’t quite as dangerous given that Verlander has to face a Yankees team that is now healthy again. deGrom owns a 30% strikeout rate and a 5% walk rate this year to go along with an ERA, SIERA, and xFIP in the low threes. As long as the weather holds up, deGrom is a great option this afternoon.
Back To The Lefty Power
Another day, another chance to play Texas lefty power bats. Last night it was Nomar Mazara stealing the show with two home runs, and his teammates will be looking to join the party today against Ivan Nova. Nova has struck out a frighteningly low 12% of left-handed batters leading to a .222 ISO against. Asdrubal Cabrera has a .220 ISO with 24% line drives against righties and can also switch around to the other side of the plate once the White Sox get into their beatable bullpen.
Signs Of Life
It’s been a rough season for Jose Ramirez, and we have to just accept that he’s not the same player we saw last year. However, there’s still plenty to like here at this low salary. Most notably, he still has elite plate discipline against lefties with just a 7.5% strikeout rate and 10.4% walks. His extreme 52% fly ball rate is playing into his low batting average, but it also keep his home run upside intact. Even more than hoping for the home runs to come back, he has stolen 17 bases this season, adding to his on base upside from the plate skills. He has struck out just once in his last ten games and has hits in eight of nine along with a home run and two triples. In the middle of the Cleveland order against a below average starter and a bad bullpen, he still looks too cheap.
The Matchup Is Right
From what we’ve seen from Zach Plesac through his first five starts, a right-handed heavy Tigers team should be an ideal matchup for the Cleveland rookie. He has had elite control in the minors, and so far with the big league club, he has a 16:3 K:BB ratio against right-handed bats, with all of his control issues coming against lefties. The Tigers have the 2nd highest K rate in the league against righties and only have three left-handed bats to use against him. He is affordable on DK/FDRFT/Yahoo today.
Salary Not Catching Up
Most sites have raised the salary on the Indians Jordan Luplow with his .267 ISO and middle of the order batting slot against lefties. But on FD, he still sits below $3k, putting him in play for all formats. The Tigers Daniel Norris has struck out just 18.9% of righties this season, while keeping the ball in the strike zone and allowing a 39% hard hit rate. He is also backed by one of the worst bullpens in the league.
Home Run Issues
A pitcher with home run issues to left-handed batters is going to have his hands full going into Milwaukee. Anthony Desclafani has allowed a .292 ISO and .416 woBA on 47% fly balls and 50% hard hits to left-handed batters. The Brewers have four batters with an ISO above .240 against righties, and one of them, Eric Thames is priced down on FanDuel and Yahoo today. Thames strikeout risk is outweighed by his power upside from his 48% hard hit rate.
Rookie Pitcher Looking To Pick On Bad Offense
It’s been an encouraging five-game start for Zach Plesac. He’s gone between 5.1 to 7 innings in each of his starts, and he’s been given a pretty long leash for a rookie as he’s topped 95 pitches in three of those outings. Plesac holds a respectable 21.7 K% in the Majors so he’s not blowing away too many batters, but he gets an elite matchup here against a Tigers offense that leads the Majors in K% against right-handed pitching. The Tigers somehow got to Trevor Bauer on Friday, but they got baffled by rookie Aaron Civale for six shutout innings on Saturday. Civale wasn’t even ranked among the team’s top 20 prospects and projects more as a backend starter, just to give you an idea of how bad this Tigers team can be. Home runs have been an issue for Plesac in the early going (he has a 1.71 HR/9 ratio), but the Tigers ranks as the second lowest team in ISO. I like Plesac in this spot, and I’d be fine with him in all formats.
Cheap Reverse-Splits Masher
The $3,500 price tag on Vladimir Guerrero on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel makes him appealing in cash games. He’s been a better hitter against right-handed pitching as five of his seven home runs have been against righties, and opponent Rick Porcello is a righty. Vlad has also hit a homer off Porcello in his brief career. I like him in all formats here for some salary relief.
New Leadoff Hitter Looking To Pounce On Rookie Pitcher
The Phillies have a pretty high implied team total despite Jordan Yamamoto having some early success. I think the key is that Yamamoto skipped Triple-A and is just two starts into his career in the Majors, so regression is likely to hit at some point. My preference here is really just to stack the top five hitters and focus on their power. This includes Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Jay Bruce, J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura. This stack is really cheap on DraftKings as they dropped the price tags on several of these players for some reason. Harper went from $4,400 to $4,000. Rhys Hoskins went from $4,600 to $4,200. Jay Bruce went from $4,900 to $4,300. J.T. Realmuto went from $4,200 to $3,700. Jean Segura went from $4,100 to $3,800. I don’t know why the DK algorithm did this, although maybe they are just trying to tempt us to take the bait. I will likely take the bait, as the Phillies stack can easily be paired with some good pitching.
Bad Starter + Bad Bullpen = Offense
We haven’t seen much of Odrisamer Despaigne, simply because he’s not a good enough pitcher to stick in major league rotations. Over the past two seasons, he’s struck out just 17% of left-handed batters and that number is all the way down at 11.7% for his career. The White Sox have a below average bullpen behind him and are in the toughest hitting ballpark on this slate. The Rangers lefty power bats look way too cheap for this matchup on almost all sites. My first choice of the cheaper options is Asdrubal Cabrera with his switch hitting capabilities, as Chicago has three lefties in the bullpen behind Despaigne. On Yahoo, Cabrera is priced up, so you can shift to Ronald Guzman. While he has strikeout risk, he keeps the power upside intact.
Dodgers lineup has value and upside at home vs. Lambert
Dodgers bats are slightly priced down, likely due to a tough hitting environment at Dodger Stadium, but they get a great matchup tonight vs. Peter Lambert and have a healthy 5.35 implied total. Lambert so far has been a decent pitcher over a small 15 inning sample size at the MLB level: he has a 6 ERA but a decent 3.73 xFIP, 3.77 SIERA and 18.5% K-BB. He hasn’t shown impressive numbers at any minor league level, however, and projects as a roughly 5.25 ERA pitcher going forward by projection systems. Cody Bellinger (190 wRC+, .349 ISO vs. RHP this year), Joc Pederson (149 wRC+, .379 ISO), Justin Turner (141 wRC+, .118 ISO), Max Muncy (137 wRC+, .250 ISO), Matt Beaty (115 wRC+, .173 ISO) and Alex Verdugo (99 wRC+, .161 ISO) are all great options tonight in LA. Joc Pederson is leading off at just $4.4k on Draftkings, followed by Alex Verdugo at just $3.6k. Turner bats 3rd at just $4.1k, Beaty is also a nice value at just $3.1k batting 7th. Muncy has been their hottest hitter with a 201 wRC+ over the past 2 weeks, followed by Bellinger with a 188 wRC+ that is somehow lower than his season wRC+ of 195.
Other tagged players: Justin Turner, Matthew Beaty, Alex Verdugo, Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Peter Lambert
Ryu is a no-brainer option on the night slate vs. Rockies tonight
Hyun-Jin Ryu is very obviously the best SP play on this night slate that really lacks good arms to choose from. Ryu is an early Cy Young candidate with a stellar 1.26 ERA / 2.85 xFIP / 3.26 SIERA and 25.4% K rate, 1.4% BB rate (!!) and 51.2% GB rate. His Statcast numbers are just as impressive as he has a .255 xwOBA allowed, 3.9% barrel rate and 85.5 MPH aEV on the year. Ryu will have a great matchup with a Rockies team that just can’t hit on the road; they have a 73 wRC+ and 27.1% K rate on the road which is a yearly occurrence for them when away from Coors. Teammate Walker Buehler diced up the Rockies last night, striking out 16 batters and giving up just 2 runs over 9 innings. Ryu is also a much better pitcher at home; since 2017, Ryu has just a .265 xwOBA in home games compared to a .327 xwOBA in away games. Ryu isn’t cheap with an $11.5k price on Draftkings and $10.6k on Fanduel, but projects to be plenty worth his price tonight and you can expect him to be very highly-owned. The Rockies have just a 3.15 implied line versus Ryu and the Dodgers tonight.
Hot Bat With A Great Matchup
Freddie Freeman in the month of June has been absolutely crushing the baseball. He has a 410 ISO, and a 464 wOBA, with 8 home runs and 24 RBI’s in June. He gets a great matchup against Anibal Sanchez who has struggled against left handed hitters; giving up 292 ISO, 390 wOBA, and an 11% walk rate. Freeman is by far one of my favorite overall bats on the slate in GPPs.
