DFS Alerts

Narrative Street In Baseball?

Gallen will be making his Major League debut tonight, and he draws a good matchup against the right-handed heavy Cardinals offense. It’s also the team that drafted him and traded him away to the Marlins in the Ozuna deal. He has a 14.4% swinging strike rate with a 33.6% strikeout rate in 14 starts in AAA this season. He has a four-pitch mix with great command, which could be really helpful in his debut.

Let's See How This Works Out

It’s never a safe player to roster Dylan Bundy, but I like his upside in this matchup tonight. The projected starting lineup for Seattle has a 24.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. This is a nice ballpark upgrade for Bundy, and while I always worry about the home run, I don’t worry about it as much with this lineup. Ever since the first month of the season, this offense has been struggling at the plate.

Steven Duggar (back) scratched Wednesday; Mike Yastrzemski replaces

Duggar has been scratched from the San Fransisco Giants original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Los Angeles Dodger due to lower back tightness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Mike Yastrzemski, who will now play right field and slot directly into Duggar’s vacated eighth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Giants lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Rich Hill on the road this evening.

Garrett Cooper (triceps) scratched Wednesday; Yadiel Rivera replaces

Cooper has been scratched from the Miami Marlins original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals due to sore left triceps. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Yadiel Rivera, who will now play first base and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the Marlins batting order but, most notably, bumps Curtis Granderson all the way up to second, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as Miami faces off against right-hander Daniel Ponce de Leon at home this evening.

Rangers in a nice spot at home vs. Indians’ Plutko

Adam Plutko has a 4.63 ERA / 5.20 xFIP and 4.91 SIERA with a 15.2% K-BB and 50.7% FB rate over 23 1/3 innings on the year. Plutko has done some things well this year, including just a 3.3% BB rate and 29.6% hard contact rate, but is ultimately a 5.21 ERA / 5.45 xFIP pitcher over 104 innings at the MLB level and projects as a roughly 5.50 ERA guy going forward according to projection systems. The Rangers are lacking some pop without Joey Gallo and Hunter Pence in the lineup but still have a decent amount of pop vs. right-handers even without them. Shin-Soo Choo (.386 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Logan Forsythe (.374), Nomar Mazara (.352), Elvis Andrus (.310), Delino Deshields (.304) and Rougned Odor (.289) are all solid options tonight in hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. Odor got off to a miserable start this year but has been a bit better recently with a .332 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. With the exception of Andrus ($4.9k) and Choo ($5k) all Rangers bats can be had for $4.4k or less on Draftkings despite a healthy 5.34 implied total tonight.

Pair of solid pitching options in Wrigley tonight

WeatherEdge is loving the pitchers in Wrigley tonight as the weather projects to favor them quite a bit (WeatherEdge available to premium subscribers).

Jon Lester will be at home to face the White Sox and is one of the better pts/$ pitchers on the board tonight. On the season, Lester has been decent with a 4.08 ERA / 4.20 xFIP/ 4.16 SIERA with a 22.6% K rate, 5.6% BB rate. He gets a matchup with the White Sox who have a 96 wRC+ and 24.1% K rate versus LHP on the year. The White Sox also have just a 23rd ranked .312 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Lester is just $7.4k on Draftkings and $7.5k on Fanduel and is a great bet to hit value with the White Sox projected for just 3.18 runs tonight.

Lucas Giolito has continued his breakout season with a 0.95 ERA / 3.37 xFIP / 3.19 SIERA and 32.4% K rate over the past 30 days. He’s also allowed just a 26.2% hard contact rate and .275 xwOBA over that time frame. The Cubs aren’t an easy matchup with a 105 wRC+ and 22.5% K rate vs. RHP on the year, though Giolito shouldn’t have too many problems preventing runs in this environment and has one of the better ceilings of all pitchers on the slate given his K%. The Cubs currently have a 3.82 implied line vs. him and the White Sox tonight.

Angels offense in great spot vs. struggling Aaron Sanchez

Aaron Sanchez has been a pitcher to target this year as he has a 5.04 ERA / 5.18 xFIP / 5.32 SIERA with a 6.4 K-BB% and 9.3% SwStr. Sanchez does get groundballs at a very good clip (50%), but walks too many batters, doesn’t generate enough K’s and ultimately has given up a .346 xwOBA on the year. Over the past 30 days he’s been even worse, with a 7.50 ERA / 5.93 xFIP / 5.91 SIERA and 0.9% K-BB. Sanchez has been pretty platoon neutral since 2018 (.347 xwOBA vs. lefties, .355 xwOBA vs. righties) and can be targeted from both sides of the plate. The Angels get a nice park upgrade going from Angel Stadium to the Rogers Centre and suddenly have a dangerous lineup with Justin Upton back in the mix. Mike Trout (197 wRC+ vs. RHP since 2018), Shohei Ohtani (163 wRC+), Tommy La Stella (146 wRC+), Justin Upton (144 wRC+), Justin Bour (112 wRC+) and David Fletcher (108 wRC+) are all great options tonight. Trout and Ohtani are priced above $5k on Draftkings, but there are some good value options like Upton ($4.1k) Fletcher ($3.9k), Bour ($3.8k) and even La Stella ($4.6k) who will be leading off. The Angels have a 5.47 implied line versus Sanchez and the Blue Jays tonight.

The Balls Be Flying

We have different outfielders at discount prices on different sites tonight. My first look is Juan Soto, but on FD, it’s Shin-Soo Choo as the high upside outfielder at the better salary. The Indians’ Adam Plutko is an extreme fly ball pitcher who has shown no strikeout ability against left-handed bats. Choo leads off for a high upside offense with his .269 ISO, .418 wOBA and 47% hard hits against righties and is in play for me in all formats on FD tonight.

Can't Pass On This Salary

The Dodgers right-handed bats are under-priced across the industry, most notably Enrique Hernandez, especially if he finds himself in the leadoff spot against Drew Pomeranz. Pomeranz is not awful with moderate strikeout ability, but his control is shaky and he has allowed a lot of power to righties with no ability to control batted balls. Over the past two seasons, Hernandez has struck out just 17.3% of the time along with 10.7% walks and 42% hard hits against lefties. He’s an easy play in cash games at this salary and an obvious part of any Dodgers stack.

Let's Try Again

Eventually, they have to play this game, right? I’ve been waiting three days to play Juan Soto against Jake Arrieta at his reduced price and I’m not about to pass on it now. The Phillies’ Jake Arrieta is a pitcher without a strength against left-handed batters. He has struck out just 14.5% of lefties while walking 12.2% and allowing a .388 wOBA on 43% hard hits. Soto is patient enough to take walks if that’s what Arrieta wants to do and he has the power to do damage with one swing if he sees a pitch to hit. I slightly prefer him in cash games over tournaments but he’s playable everywhere.

Start of HOU-CIN will be delayed due to rain Wednesday

The start of the matchup between the Houston Astros and Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Reds have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Gerrit Cole not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he expects this game to play through following the initial weather delay barring some incredibly bad luck with pop-up storms.

Ready to Explode

The Indians have been a frustrating team to peg all year long, but they have finally shown signs of a breakout of late with two 10+ run outbursts over their last three games. A series in Texas certainly helps the outlook, and Cleveland owns an implied team total approaching six runs tonight. They get to face a weak LHP in Palumbo, and there are plenty of solid targets. Lindor somehow went 0-for-6 last night despite the team scoring ten runs, but he is an elite target. Luplow has very strong splits against LHP and should be in the cleanup spot, while guys like Ramirez, Santana, and the emerging Oscar Mercado can also be considered as part of GPP stacks.

Save A Little Up Top

Lucas Giolito is the best pitcher on this slate, but his matchup against the Cubs is far tougher than what Rich Hill is dealing with tonight against a Giants team that ranks 29th in ISO and wOBA against left-handed pitching. While Hill is a pitch count concern, he’s been between 90-104 pitches in five straight starts, and at that level with his efficiency, he is still good for 6-7 innings and another quality start with strikeout upside.

Wake Up, Offense!

The St. Louis offense has disappointed through May and June, and it’s surprising that they continue to struggle to this extent given the talent in the lineup. Perhaps an aging core is starting to catch up to them. In any case, we are now getting relatively discounted price tags on the primary bats here, and this is a spot where I will look to buy low on some of the middle of the order bats. A Carpenter-Goldschmidt-DeJong stack seems like a reasonable way to go tonight against Trevor Richards, a talented but inconsistent pitcher who struggles with command and hard contact. Give the Cardinals a look as a risk/reward GPP stack this evening.

Hunting For A Cheap Arm

The value arms are ugly on this slate, especially if we are hunting for any sort of upside. I’ll side with Fried as a potential upside option against a weak Mets offense that is very much hit or miss. They have been better against LHP this year but still own the 7th highest strikeout rate in MLB against LHP for 2019. Fried has solid control with a low walk rate, and I think there’s a path to him being a fine point per dollar option tonight.