DFS Alerts
A Budding Ace
The evening slate is loaded with more questions than answers at pitcher, and it’s finally time that we all start recognizing Lucas Giolito as an ace. His 2019 numbers are impeccable, with a 10-1 record and a 2.22 ERA to go along with a strikeout rate north of 30% for the year. Yes, this is a difficult matchup on the road against the Cubs at Wrigley Field, but the weather is favorable for pitching. Giolito has proven himself capable of performing even in difficult matchups all year long, and the entirety of his profile is strong. Sure, he will likely regress a bit in the long run, but he has the best upside on this iffy slate for arms.
Start of HOU-CIN will be delayed due to approaching inclement weather Tuesday
The start of the matchup between the Houston Astros and Cincinnati Reds on Tuesday evening will be delayed due to inclement weather approaching the stadium. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Reds have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Justin Verlander not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he expects this game to play one way or another following the initial, possibly lengthy, weather delay.
As reported by: the Cincinnati Reds via Twitter
Start of TBR-NYY will be delayed due to rain Tuesday
The start of the matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees on Tuesday evening will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Yankees have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like J.A. Happ not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he expects this contest to have no issues upon the conclusion of the initial weather delay.
As reported by: the New York Yankees via Twitter Start of PHI-WAS will be delayed due to inclement weather Tuesday
The start of the matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals on Tuesday evening will be delayed due to inclement weather. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Nationals have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Patrick Corbin not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, there is certainly a legitimate chance of a late postponement given the Nationals spotty track record in waiting out weather delays.
As reported by: the Washington Nationals via Twitter A’s have highest total and affordably priced bats in great matchup
The A’s will get a solid matchup at home tonight versus Gabriel Ynoa, who has a 5.02 ERA, 5.00 xFIP and 4.75 SIERA with a 10.3% K-BB and 9.7% SwStr splitting time between both the bullpen and rotation. He also has a .333 xwOBA allowed with an 89.6 aEV and 8.1 % barrel rate. Ynoa has been worse over the last 30 days with a 5.87 xFIP / 5.65 SIERA, 4.6% K-BB, 2.25 HR/9 and .353 xwOBA allowed. Matt Olson (.384 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Matt Chapman (.368), Mark Canha (.359), Marcus Semien (.337), Robbie Grossman (.337), Khris Davis (.316) and Ramon Laureano (.312) are all great options tonight. Matt Olson has been their hottest hitter with a .397 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. All A’s bats are available at $4.6k or less on Draftkings tonight despite the great matchup. The A’s will also have the benefit of a very hitter-friendly umpire in Paul Emmel. They will carry a healthy 5.52 implied line into tonight’s matchup versus Ynoa and the Orioles.
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien, Khris Davis, Ramon Laureano, Mark Canha, Robbie Grossman
Kershaw in nice spot at home vs. Giants
Though he’s certainly not the pitcher he once was, Kershaw is still well above average and is one of the better plays on the board tonight versus the Giants at home in pitcher-friendly Dodger stadium. Kershaw has a solid 3.13 ERA / 3.45 xFIP / 3.72 SIERA with a 23.6% K rate, 4.2% BB rate, 50% GB rate and 12.3% SwStr. He also owns a decent .307 xwOBA allowed, 7.3% Barrels/BBE and 87.2 MPH aEV. The Giants have a league-worst 68 wRC+ with a 24% K rate vs. LHP so far in 2019. They have just a .278 xwOBA over the past 14 days, and their lineup projects to have just four hitters who have an xwOBA vs. LHP greater than .300 on the year. Kershaw will have a plus pitch framer in Austin Barnes behind the plate for this matchup. Kershaw has gone 6+ innings in all 11 of his starts this year, giving up more than 3 runs in just one of those starts. The remarkable consistency makes him a great cash play, though he won’t be cheap at $11.2k on Draftkings and $10.7k on Fanduel. The Giants have just a 2.88 implied line versus him and the Dodgers tonight.
Royals bats are a nice contrarian play vs. struggling Kikuchi
Yusei Kikuchi’s season line isn’t completely terrible, as he has a 4.78 ERA, 4.89 xFIP and 4.93 SIERA with a 10% K-BB. However, over the last 30 days Kikuchi owns an ugly 7.71 ERA, 6.46 xFIP, and 6.00 SIERA with a 1.8% K-BB, 3.0 HR/9 and 42.1% hard contact rate. He’s also allowed a horrendous .417 xwOBA over the past 30 days. The Royals have some decent options tonight that can be had at affordable prices: Whit Merrifield (134 wRC+ vs. LHP since 2018), Jorge Bonifacio (125 wRC+), Jorge Soler (124 wRC+), Nicky Lopez (108 wRC+, 33 PA), Cheslor Cuthbert (102 wRC+) and Adalberto Mondesi (99 wRC+) are all solid options tonight. Jorge Soler has been the Royals’ hottest hitter over the past 14 days with a .443 xwOBA. Billy Hamilton (47 wRC+) is always a dart-throw GPP option given that he’s always a threat for a steal or two and comes at cheap prices across the industry. The Royals are an intriguing tournament stack given that they will likely see low-ownership and have decent upside without breaking the bank. They currently have a 4.25 implied line for tonight’s matchup.
Other tagged players: Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, Cheslor Cuthbert, Nicky Lopez, Jorge Bonifacio Yankees bats in good spot vs. Rays tonight
After trading for Edwin Encarnacion and getting Stanton back from IL for tonight’s game, the Yanks suddenly have a dangerous lineup again. They’ll face an opener (Ryne Stanek) and then project to face Ryan Yarbrough in long relief. Yarbrough has been nothing special this year as he has a 5.59 ERA / 4.51 xFIP / 4.46 SIERA with a 12.8% K-BB. Yarbrough does a good job limiting walks with just a 4.6% BB rate, but has arguably been around the zone a little too much given the .339 xwOBA allowed so far. Yarbrough has been much more vulnerable versus right-handed bats in his career (.334 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB, .287 xwOBA vs. LHB) and will face 8 right-handed bats in the Yankees lineup tonight. Luke Voit (154 wRC+ since 2018 vs. LHP), Giancarlo Stanton (169 wRC+), DJ LeMahieu (129 wRC+), Gary Sanchez (125 wRC+), Gleyber Torres (121 wRC+), Edwin Encarnacion (118 wRC+), and Aaron Hicks (107 wRC+) are all great options tonight. Cameron Maybin (80 wRC+ vs. LHP since 2018) is also a good option given that he’s been the Yankees hottest hitter with a .439 xwOBA over the past 14 days. The Yankees have a healthy 5.18 implied total in the Bronx vs. the Rays Tuesday night.
Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Cameron Maybin, Gary Sanchez, Ryan Yarbrough Hot-Hitting Lineup Taking On Pitcher With Troubles On the Road
Antonio Senzatela’s 5.64 SIERA is the worst on the slate tonight, and it’s not just a result of pitching in Coors Field, as the Rockies right-hander actually allows a higher slugging percentage and on-base percentage on the road this season. Tonight Senzatela is taking on an Arizona lineup that has the 5th-highest slugging percentage over the past two weeks, and is a solid -150 favorite in a game with a high 10 run total. With Senzatela not having pronounced platoon splits, I’ll be targeting the hitters in the middle of the order tonight for Arizona regardless of handedness – Ketel Marte, David Peralta, Adam Jones, and Eduardo Escobar hitting in the 2nd through 5th positions of the batting order.
Other tagged players: Adam Jones, David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar
Pitcher Takes on High Strikeout Lineup Tonight
Brandon Woodruff falls just below the ace pitchers on this slate in terms of salary, but he has a number of things going for him tonight that could cause him to surpass some or even all of those more expensive arms. Woodruff is taking on a Padres team tonight in San Diego that ranks first in the league in K% against right-handed pitching, and taking on rookie Logan Allen making his major league debut, Milwaukee is a strong -165 favorite to win the game. Woodruff should also get a positive park shift for a pitcher playing in San Diego, giving him a good shot to post a win, quality start, and notch Ks along the way.
Mitch Keller is a nice value arm tonight vs. Detroit
Pittsburgh’s 2nd ranked prospect (per Fangraphs) Keller has had an unfortunate start to the season with a horrendous 15.43 ERA so far over 7 innings in 2 starts. However, Keller’s 22.5% K rate, 5.08 xFIP and 4.85 SIERA show that things haven’t bad as disastrous as the ERA suggests. Keller did have a 3.10 ERA and 30.2% K rate over 58 innings in AAA before being called up to the majors and is a consensus top 100 prospect for a reason. He gets a nice matchup in pitcher-friendly PNC park tonight versus a weak Tigers offense. The Tigers have a league-worst 73 wRC+ with a 2nd worst 26.3% K rate vs. RHP on the year. They will have just three batters in their starting lineup who have an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .320 so far in 2019. Keller will have to deal with a terrible pitch framer with Elias Diaz behind the plate, but otherwise has plenty going for him in this matchup. He’s available for just $6.9k on Draftkings and just $5.5k on Fanduel tonight. The Tigers have just a 3.85 implied line versus Keller and the Pirates tonight.
Can't Get Past Lefties
Ivan Nova has struck out just 13% of left-handed batters and 17.1% of righties. He is barely above average in ground balls at this stage of his career, and he’s essentially a pitcher with no skill beyond throwing strikes. Kyle Schwarber’s only weakness is strikeouts, so without that as a barrier, we can take advantage of his power and on base ability from the top of a good lineup at a very reasonable salary.
Weather in Wrigley set to benefit pitchers on Tuesday night
If you are a premium user and you aren’t taking advantage of the WeatherEdge tool, you are missing out. The forecast for Tuesday night in Chicago looks to be very conducive to pitching – in 145 games in similar conditions, Wrigley has seen a drop off of -29.6% in the home run department and a -13.3% dip in total runs scored. It makes sense then that pitchers are having more success from a run prevention standpoint, setting up Cole Hamels for what should be his fourth-straight plus outing. There are still enough strikeouts in this White Sox lineup to make Hamels a worthwhile target at his current price tags. Despite some plus pitching conditions, Ivan Nova still isn’t on the radar against the Cubs offense.
Other tagged players: Ivan Nova
Cheap Power Upside
I don’t like taking hitters against Anderson in Oakland, but I think we have some really strong upside with Nunez at this price point. Anderson has a .297 wOBA with a .103 ISO against right-handed hitters this season. With that said, he has a 44% hard-hit rate with a 14.1% strikeout rate as well. With Nunez being more of a flyball hitter, I’m not as worried about Anderson’s ability to generate groundballs in this matchup. Nunez has a .303 ISO with a .388 wOBA and a 316.8 average air distance against left-handed pitching this season.
Still Has A High Hard-Hit Rate
Teheran is always someone that I like to target left-handed hitters with, but he’s done a much better job at allowing home runs to lefties this season. He’s still allowing a lot of hard contact to left-handed hitters and he has a 1.50 WHIP with a 14% walk rate. It’s been a rough month for Cano with injuries, but he’s back right now, which makes him a really nice value option in this matchup. Cano has a .178 ISO with a .335 wOBA against righties this season, plus a low strikeout rate with a low walk rate, which usually results in balls being put in play.