DFS Alerts
The Brewers have a 19.4 HR/FB, but also a 25.2 K% vs RHP
Tanner Roark is not an exciting name on any daily fantasy pitching slates with more than a few games and he’s facing a dangerous offense (19.4 HR/FB vs RHP) in a dangerous park (22.1 HR/FB) at home, but the Brewers also have a 25.2 K% vs RHP this year and there’s not a standout pitcher in a decent spot on this board tonight. Players want bats tonight with nearly half the board at around five implied runs or above and Roark may help get you there with some upside for just $6.5K on DraftKings. He’s sitting on a league average 22.9 K% this year and while his 6.6 HR/FB is not sustainable, especially with an 89 mph aEV, there may be room for players to benefit on each side of this matchup tonight. Certainly considering sprinkling in some Milwaukee LHBs with batters from that side above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Roark over the last calendar year. It may be worth looking into Reds’ bats too on the other side. Jimmy Nelson’s velocity is down since returning, walking six of 36 batters faced, while getting beaten up by the Marlins and Giants.
Other tagged players: Jimmy Nelson
Tyler Chatwood has not been below a 12% walk rate since 2016
The wind is not blowing out Wrigley tonight. In fact, it’s blowing in slightly, but conditions still may be favorable for a high scoring affair. Conditions being Walker Lockett and Tyler Chatwood on the mound. Lockett had a 4.6 K-BB% in 15 innings for the Padres last year and an 8.9 K% in 24.2 AAA innings for the Mets this year. In fact, in parts of four AAA seasons now, his strikeout rate has never exceeded 20.6% in any of them. Though he can generate some ground balls, he’ll have to face an offense with a 106 wRC+ and 18.5 HR/FB against RHP this year. The top four in the projected lineup for the Cubs each are above are all above a 100 wRC+ against RHP over the last calendar year with only Kris Bryant (.179) below a .200 ISO. Anthony Rizzo (154 wRC+, .251 ISO) leads that quartet in both metrics. The Cubs are implied for five runs tonight, but still behind seven other teams on a 10 game slate.
The more interesting team may be the Mets, implied for just four runs though. Tyler Chatwood has never exceeded a 20% strikeout rate in his career and hasn’t had a walk rate below 12% since 2016. He has just a 7.7 SwStr% in 35 innings this year, though he has managed contact well with a 53.5 GB% and 85.4 mph aEV, resulting in just 2% Barrels/BBE. A Mets lineup will likely be contrarian here and more efficient in stacks against a pitcher with severe control problems. The wind is not going to help him throw strikes and while the Mets have issues, offense really hasn’t been one of them lately. Batters from either side of the plate reach a .350 xwOBA against Chatwood over the last calendar year. Among the first four in the Mets projected order tonight, Robinson Cano is the low man with a 119 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year, while Jeff McNeil (140 wRC+, .139 ISO) is the only one of the four below a .200 ISO against them. All four are above a 125 wRC+ and 45 Hard% over the last week as well.
Zac Gallen (50 Future Value grade) has a 28.5 K-BB% at AAA this year
Zac Gallen is one of the better pitching prospects in the Miami system (#5 Org., #116 MLB with a 50 Future Value grade via Fangraphs) and will be making his debut tonight against the team that traded him in St Louis. The 23 year-old has flat out dominated AAA this season with a 28.5 K-BB%, though HRs (10) have accounted for nearly half of his 21 runs allowed. While St Louis is not Miami, it’s still a run and power suppressing park with normal weather, which we’re expected to see tonight. It’s a nice spot for Gallen to start his major league career against an under-achieving offense with a 91 wRC+ both at home (10.9 HR/FB) and vs RHP (13.6 K-BB%). Gallen already costs around $7K, but may still have some value in this spot as he has recorded seventh inning outs in nine of his 14 AAA starts this year.
Clayton Richard has allowed 57.4% of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity
Clayton Richard has a 12.6 K% which immediately removes him from daily fantasy consideration, especially against an offense with a 16.3 K% vs LHP. So the question becomes, what should we expect to be done against him. It’s not always so easy as Richard has not been below a 56 GB% since 2013, but this year he dips to 55.9%, which is still great, but he has allowed a HR in four straight starts with 57.4% of his contact above a 95 mph exit velocity. A .367 xwOBA confirms, he’s generating rockets all over the field, so it’s no surprise that the Angels own the top implied run line on the board tonight at 5.75. Richard has faced 308 RHBs over the last calendar year, a large enough sample for his .389 wOBA and .399 xwOBA with a 44.1 Hard% (51.5 GB%) to be quite terrifying. Mike Trout (145 wRC+, .217 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) may be favored to homer tonight and Albert Pujols (118 wRC+, .284 ISO) has remained a formidable presence against southpaws. David Fletcher (84 wRC+, .105 ISO) and Justin Upton (50 wRC+, .128 ISO) have been less successful, but are also expected to have some value in this spot, projected in the top half of this lineup.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, David Fletcher, Justin Upton, Clayton Richard Reasonable Value
Jose Suarez has made a handful of starts with mixed results for the Angels, and he has had command issues throughout his minor league climb (10.2% walk rate in 2018, 11.1% walk rate in 2019 at AAA, 9.2% walk rate in the major leagues). He has respectable stuff and some potential, but he’s still very raw at this level. I am not actively targeting a ton of Toronto bats tonight, but you could consider Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero. Both have been hit or miss in their brief time at the MLB level, but both have solid long-term potential. I’m intrigued with Guerrero now that his DFS price tag is cheaper than it was when he first came up, and it’s not like his at-bats have been terrible, as he does have a 40% hard contact rate. The results are coming, and I like him as a value here. That’s about where my interest in this underwhelming offense levels off.
Big Upside In This Matchup
Expect the Angels to rival the Twins in ownership tonight, and it’s impressive how much popularity the Angels have gained this week. Hey, that will happen when you face Edwin Jackson, Aaron Sanchez, and Clayton Richard in succession! Mike Trout is obviously the best player on the planet and has 10 RBIs in this series, but you don’t need me to tell you how good he is. The big key here is the return of Justin Upton. He homered on the first MLB pitch he saw in 2019 thanks to the aforementioned Edwin Jackson, and the DFS price tag is still mildly affordable. This could be one of the last remaining chances to buy low on a quality middle of the order hitter. You can round out an Angels GPP stack with any of the RHBs that crack the lineup tonight, but Trout and Upton are elite cash game plays tonight. Richard is allowing a .430 wOBA and 47% hard contact rate to RHBs this year, and he’s always had issues getting RHBs out. It’s just worse now.
Regression Can Wait
I expect this will be a night where paying down at pitching is the most popular route, and if paying up, Charlie Morton should receive the bulk of the attention. This should leave Jake Odorizzi and his 28.3% strikeout rate at a nice ownership level in tournaments. He is due for some regression in HR/FB and BABIP which at some point is going to bring his 2.24 ERA up closer towards his 3.98 SIERA, but we can hope that lasts one more start. As a high fly ball pitcher with strikeout ability, it’s easy to pile up easy innings when those fly balls stay in the park. The Royals have only two regular batters who are over a 35% hard hit rate and rank 25th in ISO against righties. Odorizzi’s big 33.3% K rate to lefties gives him plenty of upside for GPP’s tonight.
Power In The Middle
Washington’s Erick Fedde has a 3.68 ERA this season, but that is hiding a 5.33 SIERA that comes from dangerously low 13.9% strikeouts and 9.3% walks. The only skill here is a moderate ground ball rate that sits at 55% to lefties and 52% to righties. Bryce Harper and Jay Bruce may look like the more obvious plays with the platoon advantage, but with Fedde’s strikeouts all the way down an 10% to righties, Rhys Hoskins is my first choice here with his 48% fly balls and 48% hard hits, along with the surging Scott Kingery and his .345 ISO.
Other tagged players: Rhys Hoskins, Bryce Harper Upside Has Passed The Downside
We think of Dylan Bundy as a high risk pitcher, and while the fly balls are still there, he has been holding the home runs in check recently, especially on the road. He strikes out 30% righties, and against lefties, he’s allowed just 27% hard contact. He has only allowed more than three runs all season, making the downside less prevalent than his reputation. The Mariners offense has been weakened substantially from injuries and trades, and their active roster has the 4th highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching.
Undeniable Power
There won’t be anything sneaky about the Twins tonight, but we can hope that the high salaries will keep their ownership somewhat in check. This team leads the majors in home runs and ISO and faces a starter in Glenn Sparkman who has managed to strike out just 14.3% of left-handed batters while allowing a .263 ISO on 49% hard hits. The Twins have power everywhere, but the top three of Kepler, Rosario and Polanco are all above a .250 ISO and 40% hard hits with strikeout rates below 17%.
Other tagged players: Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario An Elite Option Once Again
Hey, we have another repeat of a Saturday matchup, and this Odorizzi vs. Sparkman battle strikes again. As they did on Saturday, our PlateIQ tools absolutely love the Twins tonight. In fact, if I sort the slate by PIQ rank, three Twins currently rise to the top of the list as of the time I am writing this. Those three would be Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, and Jorge Polanco. You can’t really go wrong with any of the three LHBs in a matchup against Sparkman, a journeyman with a SIERA and xFIP near 5.00 and a 14% strikeout rate over his major league sample size. All three of the aforementioned hitters have ISO marks of .280+ against RHP so far this year. If you look at the PlateIQ factors, Kepler has a whopping 22 “favorable” factors compared to just one “unfavorable” one, and his PIQ score of around 76 is one of the higher ones I have ever seen. Kepler, Rosario, and Polanco are all great plays, but I’ve tagged Kepler as the core option, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that he might see five at-bats as the leadoff hitter in a road game.
Ready to Roll in MLB Debut
Gallen was one of the pieces that the Cardinals traded to the Marlins in the Marcell Ozuna deal, and it’s very ironic that his major league debut will come against the team that drafted him. It’s good timing for Gallen, as he gets to face a Cardinals team that seemingly can’t hit its way out of a paper bag right now. It would shock a lot of people, but the Cardinals rank 29th in team wOBA (ahead of only the Orioles) and 23rd in team ISO during the month of June. They also have the third highest strikeout rate this month. It’s been ugly. Gallen has a ridiculous 112/17 K/BB ratio over 91 minor league innings this year, and that solid command should help him succeed right out of the gate. I don’t often trust rookie pitchers, but this is a slate and a matchup where I’m willing to get on board.
Thursday's Top Arm
This will be a fun matchup in Oakland tonight, as two good pitchers square off in a game with a 7 1/2 run Vegas total. The Rays absolutely need innings out of Charlie Morton tonight, as Blake Snell somehow got only one out before being yanked out of yesterday’s game. Morton struggled with his command early in the year, but he has corrected that with a 40/6 K/BB ratio over his last five starts, and he had not lost a game all year until his last outing. The overall profile remains rock solid, and his 30.6% strikeout rate means his upside is significantly higher than every other pitcher you will find on this slate. Oakland is a fairly tough matchup, but the park is beneficial to pitching, and Morton pitched six shutout innings against the A’s earlier this month. He’s very expensive and feels over-priced, but that’s all relative on this slate. Morton is my favorite option on the board.
All Over The Place
Tyler Chatwood has really struggled with command this season and has a 14.1% walk rate with a 19.5% strikeout rate. He’s done a good job at limiting the power to lefties, but he still has a .372 wOBA with a 2.00 WHIP. Cano doesn’t have the power like he use to, but he still has very good contact skills. He has a .199 ISO with a .344 wOBA and a 13.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Cheap Power Upside
I hate the ballpark, but I absolutely love this matchup for Nunez tonight. LeBlanc has been awful against right-handed hitters to the tune of a .370 wOBA and .243 ISO. He also has a 13.2% strikeout rate and a 33.6% hard to soft contact ratio against righties. Meanwhile, Nunez has a .293 ISO with a .377 wOBA and a 92.6 average exit velocity against lefties this season.