DFS Alerts
Highest Team Total on the Board
The highest implied team total on today’s slate belongs to…. the Cincinnati Reds? Believe it or not, the Reds own an implied team total of 5.5 runs this afternoon against an inconsistent young pitcher in Nick Kingham. You can get the Reds at respectable price points across the DFS landscape today. While it has been a difficult start to the year for Joey Votto, his on base skills make him a fine option at his current price tag, while Jesse Winker has a particularly appealing tag on FanDuel. This is a fine way to get affordable exposure to a team that is projected to score over five runs this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Jesse Winker
Solid Value
The overall numbers this year aren’t all that great for Daniel Norris, but I like him as a value arm today. He was solid in his last start against the Marlins, and the positive news is that he hasn’t walked more than two batters in any start this season. This is a good matchup against a weak Orioles team, and I like targeting pitchers against an offense that is coming off a series at Coors Field. Expect a reasonable game from Norris here, and he should be able to pay off his low salary tag.
Leury García scratched Sunday; Ryan Cordell replaces
Garcia has been scratched from the Chicago White Sox original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Minnesota Twins due to a sore right shoulder. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Ryan Cordell, who will now play right field and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which bumps Charlie Tilson, Jose Rondon, Yolmer Sanchez, and Seby Zavala up to leadoff, sixth, seventh, and eighth, respectively. However, the remainder of the White Sox lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Jake Odorizzi on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: the Chicago White Sox via Twitter Other tagged players: Ryan Cordell
Tim Anderson (wrist) scratched Sunday
Anderson has been scratched from the Chicago White Sox original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Minnesota Twins due to a sore right wrist. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jose Rondon, who will now play shortstop and slot directly into Anderson’s vacated seventh spot in the order. However, the remainder of the White Sox lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Jake Odorizzi on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Scott Merkin via Twitter Other tagged players: Jose Rondon Twins bats in a great spot versus a starter with a -9.7 K-BB% on the year
Dylan Covey has been atrocious this year with a 5.31 ERA / 7.40 xFIP / 7.73 SIERA and a -9.7 % K-BB. Covey is a 6.03 ERA / 5.02 xFIP pitcher over 212 innings in the MLB but surprisingly still has a rotation spot. His .445 xwOBA allowed this year would be worst in the league among all starters if he met the innings requirement. To make matters worse for Covey, he has to deal with an extra hitter-friendly umpire in David Rackley today. Jorge Polanco (.384 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Max Kepler (.376), CJ Cron (.372), Eddie Rosario (.351), Willians Astudillo (.333) and Marwin Gonzalez (.323) are all good options today vs. Covey. Jason Castro has a .457 xwOBA vs. RHP this year but is batting 8th. Byron Buxton has shown decent improvements this year and has a .300 xwOBA vs. RHP this year, he’ll bat last in the order but is always a threat for a steal. Marwin Gonzalez might be the best value bat, hitting 3rd in the order at just $4.1k. Luis Arraez is just $3.7k and bats 6th; he had a 146 wRC+ over 164 PA in AA this year. The Twins have a massive 6.48 implied total vs. Covey and the White Sox this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Willians Astudillo, Eddie Rosario, C.J. Cron, Max Kepler, Marwin Gonzalez, Byron Buxton, Jason Castro, Dylan Covey
Rockies have an otherworldly 7.37 implied total vs. Hess in Coors
David Hess has been horrific this year with a 6.75 ERA / 5.94 xFIP / 5.34 SIERA to go along with a 56% FB rate and just a 7.7% SwStr. Hess also has one of the worst xwOBAs in the league with a .408 mark, as well as a league worst 16.8% barrel rate (!) and 91.8 aEV. Hess’ only pitch with an xwOBA < .300 is his curve, which he has only thrown 5% of the time. His four seamer (53.5% usage, .447 xwOBA allowed) and his slider (25.2% usage, .354 xwOBA allowed) are his two main pitches and both get routinely hammered. Trevor Story (.358 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Nolan Arenado (.348), David Dahl (.344), Ian Desmond (.321) and Daniel Murphy (.276) are the best bats in the Rockies’ projected order today. Raimel Tapia (.252) projects to lead off and is a nice value at $4.8k given the matchup and environment. Brendan Rodgers (158 wRC+ in AAA this year) is a nice option at just $4.6k if he cracks the starting lineup. Rockies bats are a no-brainer play in the main slate today given the total, expect sky-high ownership.
Other tagged players: David Dahl, Daniel Murphy, Ian Desmond, David Hess, Brendan Rodgers, Trevor Story, Raimel Tapia Quintana has been solid all year, has good matchup and is less than $8k on both sites
Jose Quintana is enjoying a bit of a rebound in 2019 after posting back to back 4+ ERA seasons in 2017 and 2018. So far this year, Quintana has a 3.30 ERA / 3.69 xFIP / 4.05 SIERA with a solid 15.1% K-BB, a much improved 50.6% GB rate and a career high 10% SwStr. Statcast data shows he is using his sinker much more and has also increased his changeup usage, which so far has yielded better results. Statcast has him at a decent .310 xwOBA allowed with a very solid 5.4% barrel rate. Quintana will be taking on the Reds, who have just a 82 wRC+ vs. LHP this year with a 22.2% K rate. The Reds will have just 3 batters in their lineup with an xwOBA vs. LHP greater than .310 on the year. Quintana will also have the benefit of a very pitcher-friendly umpire in Doug Eddings. The Reds have just a 3.34 implied line vs. Quintana, who has a good shot of getting a ‘W’ as a -160 favorite this afternoon.
Woodruff is arguably the best value arm today despite pitching in Miller Park
Brandon Wooddruff has had a great season for the Brewers so far with a 3.51 ERA / 3.55 xFIP / 3.67 SIERA, a 27.7% K rate compared to a 7.3% BB rate, and a 40% GB rate compared to a 34.5% FB rate. Woodruff’s Statcast data backs up his success, as he has just a .312 xwOBA allowed with a miniscule 4.7% barrel rate and a 86.8 aEV. Despite all of this, Woodruff is available on Draftkings for just $6.6k today. This is at least partly due to his environment as he’s pitching in hitter friendly Miller Park. He’ll face the Phillies who have been about league average with a 97 wRC+ and 23% K rate on the year vs. RHP. Woodruff will have one of the best pitch framers in the game in Yasmani Grandal for this game, as well as extremely pitcher-friendly umpire Ryan Blakney calling balls and strikes. Woodruff is obviously not nearly as attractive on Fanduel with a $9k price tag, but is as close to a must-play as it gets on Draftkings given the K upside and consistent success so far this year. The Phillies currently have a 4.05 implied line vs. Woodruff and the Brewers this afternoon.
Sneaky Stack
The Dodgers are one of my favorite stacks in tournaments today. They get the righty Chris Archer on the mound who has really been struggling of late. In Archer’s last 4 games, he has 9 ERA, 52% fly ball rate and a 42% hard hit rate. This Dodgers lineup has a lot of power and has already faced Archer once this season where he gave up 6 earned with 2 home runs. Bellinger, Joc, Seager, and Muncy are my 4 favorite Dodgers.
Sneaky Stack
The Dodgers are one of my favorite stacks in tournaments today. They get the righty Chris Archer on the mound who has really been struggling of late. In Archer’s last 4 games, he has 9 ERA, 52% fly ball rate and a 42% hard hit rate. This Dodgers lineup has a lot of power and has already faced Archer once this season where he gave up 6 earned with 2 home runs. Bellinger, Joc, Seager, and Muncy are my 4 favorite Dodgers.
Sneaky Stack
The Dodgers are one of my favorite stacks in tournaments today. They get the righty Chris Archer on the mound who has really been struggling of late. In Archer’s last 4 games, he has 9 ERA, 52% fly ball rate and a 42% hard hit rate. This Dodgers lineup has a lot of power and has already faced Archer once this season where he gave up 6 earned with 2 home runs. Bellinger, Joc, Seager, and Muncy are my 4 favorite Dodgers.
Sneaky Stack
The Dodgers are one of my favorite stacks in tournaments today. They get the righty Chris Archer on the mound who has really been struggling of late. In Archer’s last 4 games, he has 9 ERA, 52% fly ball rate and a 42% hard hit rate. This Dodgers lineup has a lot of power and has already faced Archer once this season where he gave up 6 earned with 2 home runs. Bellinger, Joc, Seager, and Muncy are my 4 favorite Dodgers.
Best Stack outside Of Coors
The Twins are the best stack outside of Coors today, facing the righty Dylan Covey. Covey has really struggled this season, especially with his control, giving up 24 walks in his 4 starts this season. He gets a matchup against one of the hottest teams in baseball. In the last month, the Twins are leading the Majors in ISO, wOBA and home runs hit. This stack will come in lower owned than you think because of how expensive the Twins’ price tags are. I will be targeting Kepler, Rosario, Polanco, and Castro in my stacks.
Best Stack outside Of Coors
The Twins are the best stack outside of Coors today, facing the righty Dylan Covey. Covey has really struggled this season, especially with his control, giving up 24 walks in his 4 starts this season. He gets a matchup against one of the hottest teams in baseball. In the last month, the Twins are leading the Majors in ISO, wOBA and home runs hit. This stack will come in lower owned than you think because of how expensive the Twins’ price tags are. I will be targeting Kepler, Rosario, Polanco, and Castro in my stacks.
Best Stack outside Of Coors
The Twins are the best stack outside of Coors today, facing the righty Dylan Covey. Covey has really struggled this season, especially with his control, giving up 24 walks in his 4 starts this season. He gets a matchup against one of the hottest teams in baseball. In the last month, the Twins are leading the Majors in ISO, wOBA and home runs hit. This stack will come in lower owned than you think because of how expensive the Twins’ price tags are. I will be targeting Kepler, Rosario, Polanco, and Castro in my stacks.