DFS Alerts
Elite Upside At A Reasonable Price
In past years, Andrew Cashner has found his lucky horseshoe quite often, managing his way out of jams far more often than it seems like he should be able to. He’ll need two or three of those horseshoes in order to find success at Coors Field. Cashner has been getting more ground balls this year, but he still owns a SIERA and xFIP near 5.00 to go along with a 9% walk rate and a strikeout rate that is far below league average. I can’t envision any path for him to cleanly make his way through this game. The over-looked option here just might be David Dahl. His price tag is more affordable than Story and Arenado, and his career marks at home against RHP include a .343 average, a .420 wOBA, a .276 ISO, and an OPS over 1.000. Despite Cashner’s reverse splits this year, any hitter is capable of tagging him, particularly at Coors Field. I love the discounted price tag compared to the other primary Colorado bats, and the truth is that you really can’t go wrong here, as the Rockies have an implied team total of over six and a half runs tonight. Stack ‘em up.
Salary Saver in Cash
Hyun-Jin Ryu is the “top” pitcher on the slate in terms of raw projection and matchup but it’s Tyler Skaggs that I find myself using in more of my builds because of his price tag. Salary relief at the pitching position is important on a slate where Andrew Cashner is pitching in Coors and Skaggs offers a $3,600 discount from Ryu on FanDuel and a $3,900 discount on FanDuel. Salary savings aside, Skaggs is still a strong overall option as he gets a home matchup against a Rangers squad that has been much worse against left-handed pitching this season (28.1% strikeout rate; 86 wRC+).
Jays bats are a great option at home vs. Quantrill
Quantrill has a pretty unimpressive minor league resume and over 15 innings pitched this year he has a 5.40 ERA / 5.25 xFIP with a 7.2 K-BB% and a 39.7% Hard-Soft. He projects for a 5.73 ERA in 2019 according to THE BAT. The Blue Jays have a healthy 4.75 implied total vs. Quantrill in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre this afternoon and have some good options to roster. Justin Smoak (.430 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Vlad Guerrero Jr. (.396), Rowdy Tellez (.361), and Eric Sogard (.323) project to hit at or near the top of the order and are all available for $4.3k or less on Draftkings. Cavan Biggio is available for just $3.1k and had a 149 wRC+ in AAA this year before recently getting called up. Smoak and Guerrero Jr. have been Toronto’s hottest hitters, each have an xwOBA > .450 over the past 10 days. Randall Grichuk (career 108 wRC+, .244 ISO) is also an option, he’s projected to hit 5th at just $3.9k on DK.
Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Rowdy Tellez, Randal Grichuk, Cal Quantrill, Eric Sogard
Patrick Corbin is a no-brainer on the early slate
There are some decent pitching options on the early slate, but none have a better matchup than Corbin who will be at home to face the Marlins. Corbin has put up pretty similar numbers this year as he did in his breakout 2018: he’s got a 3.25 ERA / 3.71 xFIP with a 29.2% K rate, 8.1% BB rate and 44.3% GB rate. His Statcast numbers might hint at a bit of regression, as he does have a very high 11.8% barrel rate and 90.6 aEV but he strikes out enough guys that his xwOBA allowed still only sits at just .308. Though the Marlins’ offense has picked up the pace a bit over the past week, they are still the worst offense in baseball and have a league worst 67 wRC+ vs. LHP on the year. The Marlins have only two batters (min. 75 PA) that have an xwOBA greater than .320 on the year. Corbin is certainly not cheap as he is $11k+ on both major sites, but with the lack of safe options on this slate he offers a higher floor than any other pitcher given the K upside and great matchup. The Marlins currently have a 3.31 implied line vs. Corbin and the Nats.
Twins bats in great spot vs. homer prone Lopez
The Twins are easily one of the highest upside stacks of the night, as they lead the league in homers and face Reynaldo Lopez, who is among the worst of tonight’s pitchers in both HR/9 and FB%. Lopez has been awful this year with a 5.14 ERA / 5.71 xFIP , 10.1% BB rate, a horrendous 55.4% FB rate and a 37.3% hard contact. He also has a .348 xwOBA allowed, a 90.5 aEV and a 10.2% barrel rate. Lopez has been pretty platoon neutral for his career and can be targeted from both sides of the plate. Jorge Polanco (.382 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), CJ Cron (.376), Max Kepler (.368), Eddie Rosario (.344), Jonathan Schoop (.332) and Jason Castro (.471!) are all in play vs. Lopez. Marwin Gonzalez (.320) is batting 3rd and is a nice value at $4.2k on Draftkings. Max Kepler is leading off and has been the Twins’ hottest hitter with a .445 xwOBA over the past 10 days. The Twins currently have a 5.27 implied total vs. Lopez and the White Sox.
Other tagged players: Eddie Rosario, Jonathan Schoop, C.J. Cron, Reynaldo Lopez, Jorge Polanco, Marwin Gonzalez, Jason Castro Braves bats could be a good contrarian play vs. Mikolas
After a great year in his first year back in the States, Miles Mikolas has looked much more hittable in 2019. He has a 4.88 ERA / 4.46 SIERA with an 11.7% K-BB and 33.9% hard contact rate. Many of Mikolas’ numbers look almost identical to 2018: His K%, BB%, BABIP, hard and soft contact , GB and FB are all shockingly similar to 2019. His biggest issue has been home runs and louder contact overall, as he had just a 0.72 HR/9 in 2018 but has a 1.63 HR/9 this year. Statcast shows increases in aEV (up 2.5 MPH), barrel% (up 2.7%) and xwOBA (up .054) from 2018 to this year. The Braves have tons of pop vs. RHP in their projected lineup, with everyone besides Ozzie Albies having an xwOBA greater than .350 vs. RHP so far this year. Dansby Swanson looks like a great value, projected to bat 2nd at just $4k on Draftkings with a a.350 xwOBA vs. RHP. Josh Donaldson projects to hit 4th at $4.1k and has a .367 xwOBA vs. RHP. Freddie Freeman (.429 xwOBA vs. RHP this year) seems to be worth a shot at his price of $5.2k. He has been especially hot with a .473 xwOBA over the past 10 days, 2nd to only Austin Riley (.524). The Braves have a 4.23 implied total for this game which does feel a tad low.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Josh Donaldson, Dansby Swanson, Ronald Acuna, Miles Mikolas, Brian McCann, Austin Riley Trent Thornton a decent GPP option vs. SDP
Although he’ll be pitching in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, Thornton has an otherwise decent matchup tonight. The Padres have just an 83 wRC+ and an ugly 27.1% K rate vs. RHP on the year. The Padres have just two batters (Franmil Reyes, Eric Hosmer) in their projected lineup who have an xwOBA vs. RHP greater than .315 so far in 2019. Thornton hasn’t been all that effective this year with a 4.41 ERA / 4.35 xFIP / 4.49 SIERA. He does have some positives though: a 24.3% K rate, a 17.2% hard-soft, and just a .295 xwOBA allowed over the past 3 weeks. Thornton has also been much better on the year vs. RHB (.290 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB, .356 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB) and is projected to face just 4 lefties in the Padres’ order tonight. Thornton is just $7.6k on Draftkings and $7.1k on Fanduel despite the nice matchup with K upside. The Padres have a 4.39 implied line tonight vs. Thornton.
D-Backs bats are a sneaky play vs. Pomeranz
Drew Pomeranz has been pretty bad this year with a 5.66 ERA / 4.69 xFIP / 4.78 SIERA, a 40.4% hard contact rate, 11.3% walk rate and an 8.5% SwStr. His Statcast numbers aren’t great either, with a .353 xwOBA allowed on the year with a 88.2 aEV and 9.6% barrel rate. The D-backs aren’t a terribly great offense, but their 3.68 total feels entirely too low, even in an extreme pitcher’s park at Oracle Park. Christian Walker (.377 xwOBA since 2018 vs. LHP), Ketel Marte (.363), Adam Jones (.335) and Eduardo Escobar (.321) are all good options that project to hit in the top 5 of the D-Backs’ order. Ildemaro Vargas projects to leadoff at $3.3k, but is just a 35 wRC+ hitter in the majors. Carson Kelly has been the hottest hitter with a .411 xwOBA over the past 10 days, although with just 15 plate appearances. With the exception of Escobar, all D-Backs bats are available for $4.4k or less and will almost certainly come with extremely low ownership.
Other tagged players: Drew Pomeranz, Ketel Marte, Adam Jones, Eduardo Escobar, Christian Walker Baseballs Could Be Flying Out Of This Park Tonight
With the ability to look up physical details such as exit velocity, launch angle, and pitch movement, in baseball more than any other sport almost every aspect of the sport can be statistically quantified. But no stat could capture the expressions on the faces of the Baltimore Orioles pitching staff this week as it got thrown to the wolves and forced to throw batting practice to Gary Sanchez and Gleyber Torres. Things don’t get easier for the team this weekend as they head to Coors Field, and starting a left-hander against Nolan Arenado (career .378 ISO against left-handers at home) and Trevor Story (career .433 ISO against lefties at home) could be a bad thing for baseballs looking to stay in the stadium in Denver. Charlie Blackmon is likely to miss this game, and the Orioles could turn to the bullpen early, so I’ll be paying attention to the lineup to see if Brendan Rodgers or Raimel Tapia are starting or possibly moved up in the batting order.
Orioles offense has plenty of upside vs. bad starter in Coors
Once a promising prospect, Jeff Hoffman hasn’t really put together a good season at any level since 2016. In 35.2 innings in AAA this year Hoffman had a 7.20 ERA / 5.36 xFIP with a 2.02 HR/9 and a 10.2% walk rate. Most projection systems have Hoffman at a 5+ ERA at the MLB level for 2019. The Orioles have a healthy 5.27 implied total currently vs. Hoffman, but maybe that’s too low given the matchup and environment. Dwight Smith Jr. (.343 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Trey Mancini (.337), Pedro Severino (.331), Chris Davis (.322), Rio Ruiz (.317), Jonathan Villar (.310) and Stevie Wilkerson (.309) are all in the O’s projected lineup and have been decent bats vs. RHP this year. Rio Ruiz (.364 xwOBA over the past 10 days) and Trey Mancini (.360) have been the Orioles’ hottest hitters of late, while Chris Davis (.144) has seemingly fallen into another cold streak. Rio Ruiz is just $3.8k and is easily the best value in the lineup. Villar and Wilkerson project to bat 1-2 in the order and are both under $4.8k. Davis and Severino are all available under $4k tonight.
Other tagged players: Rio Ruiz, Chris Davis, Jeff Hoffman, Trey Mancini, Stevie Wilkerson, Pedro Severino Berrios in a Great Spot Friday Night vs. CWS
Jose Berrios has a nice matchup tonight at home vs. a relatively weak White Sox offense. Berrios’ particularly wide home-road splits for his career (.290 xwOBA allowed at home, .330 xwOBA allowed on the road) make him an obvious target in home matchups. Berrios has followed up a breakout 2018 with a similarly good 2019 thus far: 3.39 ERA / 4.10 xFIP / 3.91 SIERA with a 23.1% K rate and just a 4.2% BB rate. He also has just a .310 xwOBA allowed and an aEV of 85.3 MPH. Berrios has been better vs. RHB (.280 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB, .313 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB since 2018) and will fortunately face just four left-handed bats, two of which are in the bottom third of the order. The White Sox have a 94 wRC+ and an ugly 26.7% K rate vs. RHB so far in 2019 and have been one of the coldest offenses in the league over the past 10 days with a .299 xwOBA. Berrios will have a good shot at getting the ‘W’ as the Twins are currently a -196 favorite for tonight’s game. The White Sox will have just a 3.73 implied line vs. Berrios and the Twins.
Two struggling pitchers and a weather boost could lead to offensive production in St Louis
Mike Foltynewicz does have a league average 10.3 SwStr%, but just a 14.3 K% through five starts. Ironic for a pitcher who was well above a 2.5 K/SwStr last season. He’s not fooling anybody with a 45.3 Z-O-Swing%, resulting in a 10.5% Barrels/BBE and .357 xwOBA that’s still 25 points below his actual results so far. His ERA along with all of his estimators are well above five.
Miles Mikolas had been pitching well before getting thumped for seven runs in Texas last time out. His 16 K% dictates reliance on excellent control (4.3 BB%) and quality contact management, though the latter has only been about league average this year and resulted in an 18.5 HR/FB this year. While only three of his seven HRs have come at home and all three of those in one start, in a normally run and power suppressing park, weather conditions are expected to give offenses a boost in St Louis tonight (Weather Edge is available to premium subscribers).
Unfortunately, this is not as sneaky a spot as we would hope to look for offense with the Cardinals implied above five runs tonight. Matt Carpenter (140 wRC+, .164 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) should certainly be a target against a pitcher who had struggled against LHBs before breaking out last year. The Braves, however, are right around 4.2 runs. This is a spot where we can look at some of their LHBs as well (.329 wOBA vs Mikolas last calendar year). Freddie Freeman (138 wRC+, .202 ISO) has caught fire with a 191 wRC (53.6 Hard%) over the last week. Nick Markakis (119 wRC+, .153 ISO) doesn’t have the upside, but is affordably in the middle of this lineup on most nights. While Mikolas has smothered RHBs (.238 wOBA, .269 xwOBA, 27.1 Hard%, 52.9 GB%), conditions appear to make a talent like Ronald Acuna (137 wRC+, .229 ISO) in play as well. He leads the team with a 65.2 Hard% over the last week.
First five in Twins projected order above a 100 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP last 12 months
Reynaldo Lopez has struck out a total of 15 over four starts after striking out 14 Tigers. Add a 10.1 BB% to a suspicious league average strikeout rate with a 44.3 Z-O-Swing% and 90.5 mph aEV and the situation looks ripe for the Twins to potentially continue the offensive onslaught they started in LA over the weekend. Batters from either side of the plate have hit Lopez at a league average rate (RHBs .314 wOBA, LHBs .328 wOBA) over the last calendar year with RHBs gaining an additional 28 points by xwOBA. Looking at the Minnesota projected lineup, with the expected return of Nelson Cruz, each of the first five in the order should have a wRC+ above 100 with an ISO above .200 vs RHP over the last calendar year, while the affordable Luis Arraez has opened his career with a 223 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Luis Arraez, Reynaldo Lopez Noah Syndergaard has been more contact manager (31.1% 95+ mph EV) that strikeout artist (21.2 K% last 30 days)
Noah Syndergaard has gone at least seven innings in three of his last four starts, which helps with the strikeout downtick (21.2% last 30 days). With a 50.8 GB% and 31.1% 95+ mph EV, he’s been more great contact manager this year than strikeout artist. His .266 xwOBA, 3.69 SIERA and 2.90 DRA mock his 4.50 ERA. The Tigers lose a DH and have a 68 wRC+ with a 26.1 K% and 7.5 HR/FB vs RHP. If not looking to pay all the way for Snell’s upside (which has surpassed Syndergaard’s at this point), Thor is a slightly cheaper alternative who should pitch deep into a strong matchup and be one of the better values among the seven arms who reach at least $10K on either site tonight.
Gregory Soto has allowed 15.8% Barrels/BBE with a 6.3 SwStr% through three starts
Gregory Soto has been lit up for 12 runs with six walks in 10 innings, generating swings and misses on just 6.3% of his pitches so far. He’s generated barrels on 15.8% of his contact. While these numbers are either unsustainable or he’ll be back in the minors soon, he may play right into the hands of an offense that has been forced to become predominantly left-handed over the past week with injuries to most of their key LHBs. RHBs have smoked Soto for a wOBA, xwOBA, Hard% and GB% all starting with the number four in his small sample. Pete Alonso (191 wRC+, .488 ISO, 60.9 Hard% vs LHPH) needs to be in some DFS lineups tonight. Amed Rosario (92 wRC+, .134 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and J.D. Davis (84 wRC+, .162 ISO) are affordable and should be in the top half of the lineup tonight as well. Wilson Ramos (137 wRC+, .182 ISO) should be a middle of the order catcher with a sub-$4K price tag. While the majority of the RHBs in this lineup have lacked success against southpaws over the last calendar year, the bats have picked up for the Mets this week and they are once again fairly affordable in a strong spot.
Other tagged players: Wilson Ramos, Gregory Soto, J.D. Davis, Amed Rosario