DFS Alerts
A Fine Choice On The Cheap
If you are looking to go cheaper with a pitching choice today, give Eickhoff a look. His stuff has looked better this year, which has led to a sub-3.00 ERA and a 25% strikeout rate in the early going. He has also been very tough on right-handed bats, holding them to a .244 wOBA this year and a .267 wOBA for his career. That helps neutralize the power of guys like Arenado and Story. The Rockies have also been striking out at a much higher rate of late, owning the third highest team strikeout rate in the month of May. Aaron Nola rolled through this lineup yesterday, and Eickhoff is a fine choice on the cheap.
Great Matchup With Solid Upside
Next to the Cardinals, the A’s have to be considered the top offense on the board today. The Tigers are going to tag team Gregory Soto and Nick Ramirez on the mound, but it doesn’t really matter. Both are mediocre lefties, and the A’s profile very well against mediocre lefties. Piscotty, Davis, and Chapman all have wOBA marks well over .400 against lefties this year, making all of them fine plays. I’ve tagged Piscotty as the core cash game play because of salary reasons, but you can’t go wrong here.
Elite Offensive Spot
The Cardinals get a great park shift today and face a mediocre lefty who can’t get RHBs out in Drew Smyly. It’s no surprise that they have the highest implied team total on the board at over six runs. We need to consider some Cardinals hitters today, and Paul Goldschmidt checks in as the priority play. His numbers against left-handed pitching have lagged a little bit so far in 2019, but we are dealing with a small sample size. Goldschmidt has made a career out of crushing lefties with a .423 wOBA, .263 ISO, and 1.013 OPS for his career. Goldschmidt isn’t priced at a huge premium today, and I expect a big game from the slugger. Paul DeJong has a .493 wOBA and .419 ISO against lefties this year, while he has been taking some of the best at-bats on the team of late. I will prioritize both today, and I think you need two St. Louis bats in your cash game lineups.
Sunday's Top Arm
The Marlins have done some damage against Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz over the past few days, but it’s time to get back to normalcy. The fact is that this is the worst offense in baseball. They have already been shut out nine times this season, and they rank dead last in the league with a woeful .260 wOBA and .088 ISO as a team against RHP this year. Syndergaard owns a healthy strikeout rate with low walks and healthy advanced metrics across the board. He has been unlucky with a .325 opposing BABIP this year, and I expect him to get back on track in a big way today. I prefer him over Chris Sale, who has about the worst matchup possible for a LHP this afternoon.
Pivot Off Chalky Ace
I’m expecting Noah Syndergaard against the Marlins to be a chalky cash game option, but Hyun-Jin Ryu would be my next choice for cash games if you decide to chase some upside as he’s been in fantastic form lately (he nearly no-hit the Nationals) and doesn’t have an overly imposing matchup against the Reds where he’s heavily favored. He’s also thrown at least seven innings in four straight starts, which gives him a good shot at the quality start bonus, as Dave Roberts has given him a longer leash than we’re used to seeing. He has an elite 28.6% strikeout rate this season and a crazy low 1.6% walk rate. There’s a lot to like here.
Ace Gets Juicy Matchup
On paper, Noah Syndgeraard gets the best matchup in terms of strikeout upside and limiting power against the Marlins. Versus right-handed pitching, the Marlins have a 27.1% strikeout rate (2nd highest in the Majors), a .261 wOBA (last in the Majors), a 64 wRC+ (last in the Majors), and a .087 ISO (last in the Majors). I think you get the point. Syndergaard only has a 25.6% strikeout rate, which is nearly 10 points lower than Chris Sale’s, but factoring in the matchup, I think Syndergaard makes a ton of sense in cash games.
Attack This Struggling Starter
I have no idea if Mike Foltynewicz is broken. His velocity continues to drop and he’s even slightly changed his pitch mix to use fewer fastballs and curveballs, but increasing his sliders and changeups. I don’t know if he’s hurt and hiding an injury, but he’s been getting crushed lately. His ERA sits at 8.02, he’s struck out just 14 batters in 21.1 innings and he’s already allowed eight homers. I have a lot of interest in the Brewers, especially Mike Moustakas. This is a spot where I’m going to attack a struggling Folty with the Brewers’ clean-up hitter.
Potential Lift-Off Against Rookie Lefty & Bad Bullpen
The A’s are my favorite stack on Sunday as they will be facing left-handed rookie Gregory Soto, followed by another lefty in Nick Ramirez. The A’s rank as one of the best offenses against left-handed pitching, and it’s headlined by Khris Davis. Davis missed Saturday’s game for rest as he’s been dealing with a hip injury, so monitor his status. But if he’s in there, he’s a strong option in all formats. This season, he has a .409 ISO against lefties, which puts his 10th in the Majors among those with 30 or more plate appearances against lefties (his teammate Matt Chapman is 9th). This is a spot where the A’s should put up some runs against all these lefties.
David Peralta (trap) scratched Saturday; Blake Swihart replaces
Peralta has been scratched from the Arizona Diamondbacks original confirmed lineup and will not start in Saturday’s matchup against the San Francisco Giants due to a sore trap. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Blake Swihart, who will now play left field and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which bumps Christian Walker, Wilmer Flores, an Nick Ahmed up to fourth, fifth, and sixth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Diamondbacks lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Madison Bumgarner at home this evening.
As reported by: Jody Jackson via Twitter Other tagged players: Blake Swihart
Twins Bats In Play Vs. Leblanc
Wade Leblanc was not a terrible pitcher last year with a 3.72 ERA / 4.47 xFIP despite averaging just 86.3 MPH on his fastball. He’s off to a tougher start in 2019, although he has just 16 IP he has a 5.59 xFIP and a .368 xwOBA allowed so far with an ugly 92 aEV and 44.1% FB rate. Leblanc has been much worse vs. RHB since 2018 (.294 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB, .338 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB) and the Twins lineup projects to have just 1 lefty compared to 8 righties tonight. CJ Cron (.360 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2017), Jonathan Schoop (.335), Willians Astudillo (.318), Miguel Sano (.312), Marwin Gonzalez (.302) and Jorge Polanco (.301) are all right-handed options in the Twins’ lineup. Polanco is enjoying a breakout year and has posted a .382 xwOBA so far in 2019. CJ Cron has been on fire over the past 10 days with a .500 xwOBA. Ehire Adrianza (.396), Marwin Gonzalez (.396) and Jorge Polanco (.373) have also seen the ball well over the past 10 days. Since 2018, Gonzalez, Astudillo, Schoop and Cron all have an xwOBA > .400 vs. fastballs that are slower than 90 MPH (Leblanc’s average FB velo is 85). The Twins have a 4.73 implied line vs. Leblanc and the Twins Saturday.
Other tagged players: Jorge Polanco, Marwin Gonzalez, Ehire Adrianza, Wade LeBlanc, Jonathan Schoop, Willians Astudillo, Miguel Sano
Angels Have Highest Total on Board Tonight Vs. Junis
With Ohtani back in the lineup, Tommy La Stella raking and Mike Trout being Mike Trout, the Angels suddenly have a dangerous lineup and have a 5.42 implied total vs. Junis and the Royals tonight. Junis is enduring a rough year which has seen him post a 5.77 ERA / 4.64 xFIP / 4.72 SIERA with a 40.6% hard contact rate. Junis also has a .358 xwOBA allowed, a 89.5 aEV and a 9.7% barrel rate. Since 2018, Junis has been platoon neutral (.338 xwOBA vs. LHB, .335 xwOBA vs. RHB) and can be targeted from both sides of the plate tonight. Mike Trout (.452 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Shohei Ohtani (.434), Tommy La Stella (.348), Kole Calhoun (.338), Brian Goodwin (.323) and Andrelton Simmons (.316) are all in play tonight. Tommy La Stella has been the Angels’ hottest hitter with a .469 xwOBA over the past 10 days, followed by Mike Trout (.411) and Shohei Ohtani (.394).
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Andrelton Simmons, Shohei Ohtani, Kole Calhoun, Brian Goodwin, Jakob Junis Value in Giants Lineup Tonight
Normally an offense to target with pitchers, the Giants have some decently priced bats in a nice matchup vs. Zack Godley and the D-Backs tonight. Godley has followed up a mediocre 2018 with an ugly 2019, posting a 7.65 ERA / 5.33 xFIP / 5.27 SIERA so far in 37.2 innings with a 6.2% K-BB. He’s giving up a career high 43% hard contact, a 1.67 HR/9 and a .386 xwOBA allowed with a 10.7% barrel rate allowed. Joe Panik (86 wRC+ vs. RHP since 2018) projects to leadoff at just $3.5k. Steven Duggar (84 wRC+, .147 ISO), Buster Posey (103 wRC+, .104 ISO), Brandon Belt (129 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Evan Longoria (84 wRC+, .167 ISO) are all available for $4.1k or less on Draftkings and $3k or less on Fanduel. Joe Panik (.419 xwOBA over the past 10 days) has been the Giants’ hottest hitter. Brandon Crawford (.375) has also seen the ball well recently and is cheap across the industry. The Giants have a 4.32 implied total for tonight.
Other tagged players: Buster Posey, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria, Steven Duggar, Zack Godley Braves in Good Spot Vs. Pitcher Returning From IL
The Braves are at home facing Chase Anderson and the Brewers tonight with a solid 4.85 implied total. After a rough 2018, Chase Anderson started the year in the bullpen and threw 19.2 innings for the Brewers before hitting the IL with a finger injury. In 2018, Anderson posted a 4.79 xFIP / 4.68 SIERA with an ugly 34.5% FB rate and a 1.71 HR/9. Anderson was actually much worse vs. RHB last year with a .367 xwOBA allowed vs. righties compared to a .293 xwOBA allowed vs. lefties, which is very close to his career splits (.300 wOBA vs. LHB, .341 vs. RHB). Ronald Acuna Jr. (.383 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Josh Donaldson (.367), Dansby Swanson (.341), and Austin Riley (.575, 11 PA) are all great right-handed options in the Braves’ lineup tonight. Even with Anderson’s platoon splits, Freddie Freeman (.402 xwOBA vs. RHP this year) is also a great play tonight as usual. Also working in Braves hitters’ favor is a very hitter-friendly umpire in Jeff Kellogg.
Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, Josh Donaldson, Chase Anderson Margevicius is Cheap and in a Great Spot Vs. PIT
Nick Margevicius has a nice matchup Saturday night at home vs. the Pirates in what should be a pretty low-scoring game (8 O/U). Margevicius hasn’t been great this year with a 4.14 ERA / 4.88 xFIP / 4.86 SIERA and just a 17.5% K rate with a 9.6% K-BB. He does do a solid job getting ground balls (44.8% GB rate), limiting hard contact (7.8 % barrel rate) and his 10.7% SwStr might suggest that his K rate is due for a little positive regression. The Pirates come into this game with a league-worst 63 wRC+ vs. LHP with a 27.1% K rate and just a .096 ISO. They will have just two batters (Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli) with an xwOBA greater than .310 vs. LHP since 2018, min. 30 PA. In addition to pitcher-friendly Petco Park, Margevicius will have a great pitch-framing catcher in Austin Hedges and a pitcher-friendly ump in DJ Reyburn. The Pirates have an implied total of just 3.62 runs. At his price ($6.9k on DK, $7k on FD) Margevicius shouldn’t have much trouble hitting value as he is arguably the best pts/$ pitcher on the slate.
Twins Stack
The Twins get the left handed Wade Leblanc today. The Twins have been really good this year against left handed pitching. They are currently 6th in ISO and 3rd in wOBA to left handed pitching. This season Leblanc has a 15% strikeout rate, 42% hard hit rate, and 43% fly ball rate. I think the Twins are a great stack option today in GPPs.
