DFS Alerts
Musgrove in a Nice Bounce-Back Spot on Afternoon Slate
Musgrove gets a nice matchup in pitcher-friendly Petco Park Sunday afternoon vs. the Padres. Musgrove has had a decent year with a 3.59 ERA / 4.48 SIERA and a 12.2% K-BB. Musgrove has done a good job keeping the ball on the ground with a 45.6% GB rate and has allowed a miniscule 2.2% HR/FB thus far. Statcast loves him as he has just a .294 xwOBA allowed and a 4.3 % barrel rate on the year. The Padres come into this game with just an 83 wRC+ and a 27.9% K rate vs. RHP on the year. The Padres project to have just two batters in the lineup (Franmil Reyes, Eric Hosmer) who have an xwOBA greater than .320 on the year vs. RHP. $300 million dollar man Manny Machado has just a .298 xwOBA so far. San Diego also has a 2nd-worst .281 xwOBA as a team over the past 10 days. Musgrove is just $7.5k on Draftkings and should be a good bet to hit value given the matchup. The Padres have just a 3.75 implied line vs. Musgrove and the Pirates Sunday afternoon.
Stack Against Folty
Mike Foltynewicz has really struggled in his first four starts back. In those four games, he has given up eight home runs and nineteen earned runs. Foltynewicz hasn’t been able to strike guys out, with only a 14% strikeout rate, while giving up 44% hard hit rate and 50% fly ball rate. He now has to face a dangerous Brewers lineup that has the third highest home runs in baseball this season. I like this stack a lot in GPPs, especially Yelich, Moustakas, Thames, and Grandal.
Stack Against Folty
Mike Foltynewicz has really struggled in his first four starts back. In those four games, he has given up eight home runs and nineteen earned runs. Foltynewicz hasn’t been able to strike guys out, with only a 14% strikeout rate, while giving up 44% hard hit rate and 50% fly ball rate. He now has to face a dangerous Brewers lineup that has the third highest home runs in baseball this season. I like this stack a lot in GPPs, especially Yelich, Moustakas, Thames, and Grandal.
Stack Against Folty
Mike Foltynewicz has really struggled in his first four starts back. In those four games, he has given up eight home runs and nineteen earned runs. Foltynewicz hasn’t been able to strike guys out, with only a 14% strikeout rate, while giving up 44% hard hit rate and 50% fly ball rate. He now has to face a dangerous Brewers lineup that has the third highest home runs in baseball this season. I like this stack a lot in GPPs, especially Yelich, Moustakas, Thames, and Grandal.
Stack Against Folty
Mike Foltynewicz has really struggled in his first four starts back. In those four games, he has given up eight home runs and nineteen earned runs. Foltynewicz hasn’t been able to strike guys out, with only a 14% strikeout rate, while giving up 44% hard hit rate and 50% fly ball rate. He now has to face a dangerous Brewers lineup that has the third highest home runs in baseball this season. I like this stack a lot in GPPs, especially Yelich, Moustakas, Thames, and Grandal.
Cardinals Again Have Highest Total of the Day vs. Smyly
The Cards get a juicy matchup with the Rangers on a warm day in Arlington where the ball should really be carrying Sunday afternoon. They’ll face Drew Smyly, who has had a miserable start to the year but somehow still has a rotation spot. Smyly has a 6.85 ERA / 5.42 xFIP / 5.03 with an ugly 14.2% BB rate, 56.5% hard contact rate and just a 26.1% GB rate. Smyly also has a .380 xwOBA allowed with a 90.5 aEV and 10.1% barrel rate. Once Smyly is chased from the game, Cardinals’ hitters will face a Texas bullpen that has a 3rd worst 5.02 xFIP on the year. Cardinals projected top 6 batters in order: Matt Carpenter (.370 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018), Paul Goldschmidt (.411), Paul Dejong (.318), Marcell Ozuna (.396), Jose Martinez (.416), Yadi Molina (.365). Jose Martinez (.457 xwOBA over the past 14 days) Dexter Fowler (.424) and Paul Dejong (.406) have been the Cardinals’ hottest hitters. All projected Cardinals starters with the exception of Kolten Wong, have an xwOBA > .310 over the past 14 days. St. Louis has a 6.02 implied line vs. Smyly and the Rangers in Arlington this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Marcell Ozuna, Paul DeJong, Yadier Molina, Dexter Fowler, Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Carpenter, Kolten Wong, Drew Smyly Sneaky One Off
Rougned Odor’s bat is starting to heat up. In his last three games, he has four hits, three home runs, and eight RBIs. He faces off against Jack Flaherty, who is a pretty good pitcher but has struggled a little more to left handed batters. To lefties this year, he is giving up a 340 wOBA, 38% fly ball rate, and 45% hard hit rate. In Texas, I think Odor is really good play at very low ownership in GPPs.
Pivot Off The Chalk Stack
I believe the Cardinals will be the favorite high priced stack, so I think Boston is a good pivot in tournaments. The Red Sox go up against the lefty Wade Miley, who has been pretty decent so far this season, but I think this could be a trouble spot for him. The Red Sox have a lot of dangerous right handed bats, and the wind is blowing out against a pitcher with a low strikeout rate at around 16%. I will be targeting Betts, Martinez, Chavis, and Bogaerts in my stacks today.
Pivot Off The Chalk Stack
I believe the Cardinals will be the favorite high priced stack, so I think Boston is a good pivot in tournaments. The Red Sox go up against the lefty Wade Miley, who has been pretty decent so far this season, but I think this could be a trouble spot for him. The Red Sox have a lot of dangerous right handed bats, and the wind is blowing out against a pitcher with a low strikeout rate at around 16%. I will be targeting Betts, Martinez, Chavis, and Bogaerts in my stacks today.
Pivot Off The Chalk Stack
I believe the Cardinals will be the favorite high priced stack, so I think Boston is a good pivot in tournaments. The Red Sox go up against the lefty Wade Miley, who has been pretty decent so far this season, but I think this could be a trouble spot for him. The Red Sox have a lot of dangerous right handed bats, and the wind is blowing out against a pitcher with a low strikeout rate at around 16%. I will be targeting Betts, Martinez, Chavis, and Bogaerts in my stacks today.
Pivot Off The Chalk Stack
I believe the Cardinals will be the favorite high priced stack, so I think Boston is a good pivot in tournaments. The Red Sox go up against the lefty Wade Miley, who has been pretty decent so far this season, but I think this could be a trouble spot for him. The Red Sox have a lot of dangerous right handed bats, and the wind is blowing out against a pitcher with a low strikeout rate at around 16%. I will be targeting Betts, Martinez, Chavis, and Bogaerts in my stacks today.
Cheap pitcher With Upside
Reynoldo Lopez is a sneaky cheap option with upside. He is facing a Toronto team that has struggled against right handed pitching with a 25% strikeout rate and 5th worst in wOBA. Lopez has shown the ability to get strikeouts with at least 6 in 4 of his last 5 outings. At his cheap price I think there is upside in GPPs at lower ownership.
A’s Bats in Great Spot vs. Soto
Gregory Soto will make the second start of his career vs. a good A’s lineup that will likely have some heavily-owned bats. Soto projects to be a terrible pitcher at the Major League level as he is projected for about a 5.50 ERA and 1.75 WHIP by most projection systems. His main issue is control; he walked a whopping 5.56 batters per 9 in 113 innings in High-A in 2018 and projects for about a 5 BB/9 by most projection systems at the Major League level. Since Soto doesn’t project to pitch deep into this game given the control issues and matchup, we can assume Oakland bats will see a decent amount of plate appearances vs. the Tigers’ pen. Their pen has been awful this year with the 2nd worst xFIP at 5.10 and 2nd worst HR/9 allowed with a 1.78 mark. Chad Pinder (.364 xwOBA vs. LHP since 2018), Stephen Piscotty (.361), Khris Davis (.347), Mark Canha (.344), Ramon Laureano (.337) and Matt Chapman (.322) have all seen success vs. LHP and are options today. Semien (.311) will leadoff and is a good value play on all sites. Chad Pinder (.439 xwOBA over the past 10 days) has been the A’s hottest hitter while Matt Chapman (.294) has been the coldest. The Athletics currently have a juicy 5.75 total vs. Soto and the Tigers this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Chad Pinder, Stephen Piscotty, Matt Chapman, Geovany Soto, Ramon Laureano, Mark Canha, Marcus Semien Woodruff Has Quietly Had Great Fantasy Year, Could Be Under-Owned Today
Even in a not-so-great matchup with the Atlanta Braves in SunTrust Park this afternoon, Brandon Woodruff is an intriguing play at SP. Woodruff has a 3.72 ERA / 3.50 xFIP / 3.66 SIERA with a 28.8% K rate. He does a good job keeping the ball out of the air (33.3% FB rate, 0.74 HR/9) and has allowed a miniscule 4% barrel rate thus far. The high K rate gives him a nice ceiling while the low HR/9 and barrel rate have provided a safe floor as Woodruff has gone 5+ innings in 8 out of 9 starts. The Braves have been solid, if unspectacular vs. RHP with a 106 wRC+ and just a 21.9 % K rate on the year. Woodruff will have the advantage of a great pitcher framer in Yasmani Grandal and a pitcher-friendly umpire in Brian O’Nora as well as a slight park upgrade. At just $8.3k on Draftkings and $8.6k on Fanduel, I think Woodruff makes a lot of sense in tournaments as he has by far the highest upside on the board under $9k on any site. With the Braves having an implied total of 4.65 vs. Woodruff, he will likely come with low ownership in most GPPs.
Bieber a Safe SP Option Vs. Baltimore
The Sunday main slate has a few obvious plays but is mostly lacking safe arms. Bieber is one of the safer plays on this slate in a good matchup with the Orioles. Bieber has been solid this year with a 3.81 ERA / 3.99 xFIP / 3.72 SIERA with a 26.5% K rate and just a 6.4% BB rate. Bieber does have some issues with giving up loud contact; he has an xwOBA allowed of .358 on the year and a very high barrel rate (12.6%, bottom 8% of the league per Statcast). Since Bieber does have a high K rate and a doesn’t issue too many free passes, he can get away with some loud contact as long as he doesn’t give up too many bombs. Fortunately, the Orioles have a 19th ranked 13.2% HR/FB rate and a 29th ranked 32.4% hard contact rate vs. RHP in 2019. The Orioles also have just an 88 wRC+ and .169 ISO with a 21.9 % K rate vs. RHP on the year. The Orioles offense has also been cold as of late with a 29th ranked .281 xwOBA over the past 10 days.