DFS Alerts
Career High Strikeout Rate
There are a handful of strong pitching options on Monday night but it’s Matt Boyd that leads the way in terms of whiff-rate (14.5%). The southpaw’s ability to miss bats has unsurprisingly led to strong strikeout numbers as Boyd has posted a career high 31.3% strikeout rate to start the season. Boyd’s matchup against a potent Astros lineup will certainly suppress ownership which makes him an intriguing tournament option. The Astros, who will continue to be without Jose Altuve, are a strong strikeout matchup as their current projected lineup has five hitters in it with strikeout rates north of 23.5% against left-handed pitching over the last two seasons. While it’s not a good run prevention spot for Boyd, the lefty still has one of the top strikeout upsides on the slate which makes him worthy of a closer look in tournaments.
The Artist Formerly Known as Safeco Field
It’s a bit weird to have a slate where the two teams playing in Seattle are two of the top power stacks on the slate but, alas, here we are. Notably, the artist formerly known as Safeco Field (now T-Mobile Park) isn’t quite as tough on power as the general public thinks, especially for right-handed hitters as left-field plays close to neutral for power. Oakland’s righty power hitters will have the platoon advantage against Yusei Kikuchi who has had difficulty missing Big League bats (19.8% strikeout rate). Per Derek Carty’s projection system, THE BAT, the A’s only trail the Mariners in the power department on Monday night with the slate’s second highest HR projection.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Matt Chapman, Stephen Piscotty, Chad Pinder Thrower of No-Hitters, Destroyer of Bankrolls
The first thing I want to make clear is that I have lost many dollars stacking against Mike Fiers. Fiers is a tough pitcher to truly predict – he’s thrown two no-hitters in his career yet he hasn’t posted a SIERA south of 4.25 since 2015. Despite being difficult to project on a single game basis, I continue to target Fiers in tournaments because of his propensity to give up the long ball. Fiers has already given up eight HRs this season after allowing 32 HRs each of the last two seasons – good for the third most in the league in 2018 and ninth most in 2017. Park aside, this remains a good power matchup for Seattle power hitters and HR is king when stacking.
Other tagged players: Daniel Vogelbach, Mitch Haniger, Domingo Santana, J.P. Crawford, Daniel Vogelbach, Jay Bruce, Omar Narvaez, Ryon Healy Scarce Positions
The middle infield is lacking for options tonight. Cleveland bats are jumping to the top of my list throughout the infield, and at shortstop in particular, Francisco Lindor stands out ahead of the pack tonight. The White Sox Reynaldo Lopez is a low strikeout pitcher to lefties with shaky control. Leading off for a left-handed heavy Indians lineup is going to give Lindor a lot of run scoring opportunities and he also has the power to take care of things on his own with his .236 ISO and 41% hard hits against righties since the start of 2018.
Mowing Down The Righties
Brad Peacock has extreme splits, and sets up very well against heavily right-handed opponents like the Tigers. Dating back to the start of 2018, we’re looking at 36.7% K and a .107 ISO to righties vs 24.3% K and a .309 ISO to lefties. This Tigers lineup has just three left-handed bats and a lot of right-handed strikeouts. Peacock is at a fair salary on all sites for all formats.
Batting Average Is Not A Thing Anymore
DFS pricing, at least on DK/FDRFT is swaying with batting average, but this current MLB environment just has nothing to do with batting average. We want players getting on base and hitting home runs. Bryce Harper strikes out, takes walks and hits the ball hard and in the air. The Brewers’ Freddy Peralta either strikes batters out, walks them, or allows the ball to be hit hard and in the air. At this reduced salary, I’ll take one of each.
Still Crushing The Righties
After a breakout 2018 season where David Peralta posted a .251 ISO and .402 wOBA with 52% hard hits against right-handed pitching, he is right back at it with a .268 ISO and .412 wOBA so far this season. He and the Diamondbacks face the big splits of Nick Kingham with his low 15.7% strikeouts along with a .308 ISO allowed to lefties so far in his career. Peralta is my favorite cash game spend on this slate.
Tough Choices Up Top
We have six strong pitching choices at the top of the board tonight, and it is not easy to choose between them. Based on track record and consistency, Matt Boyd, Aaron Nola and Jose Berrios would seem to lead the pack, but all of their matchups leave quite a bit to be desired. I never feel good about trusting Robbie Ray, but the strikeouts are always there, right back up to 29.7% this season, and this matchup with the Pirates is ideal for his skill set. His issue is always control, but the Pirates have the lowest walk rate in the league against left-handed pitching to help him out. They also rank dead last in ISO and wOBA against lefties. Strikeout upside is always through the roof with Ray and we can hope the Pirates get stranded in the desert tonight.
Freddie Freeman (illness) scratched Sunday; Charlie Culberson replaces
Freeman has been scratched from the Atlanta Braves original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks due to an illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Charlie Culberson, who will now play first base and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which bumps Nick Markakis and Ozzie Albies up to third and fourth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Braves lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Zack Godley on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: the Atlanta Braves via Twitter Other tagged players: Charlie Culberson
Mahle Is a Good Option on Afternoon Slate
Mahle has quietly put up good numbers in 2019 with a 3.69 ERA / 3.04 xFIP / 3.43 SIERA and a 45.4 % GB rate with a 21% K-BB. A new curve and splitter added to his repertoire are part of the reason Mahle has seen improved numbers in 2019. He’ll get a matchup today in spacious AT&T Park with the Giants who have just an 83 wRC+ and 23.9% K rate in 2019. The Giants projected lineup has just two batters (Brandon Belt, Joe Panik) with an xwOBA greater than .315 vs. RHP since 2018. Also working in Mahle’s favor is a pitcher friendly umpire in CB Bucknor. At just $7.8k on Draftkings, Mahle can be paired with one of the higher priced arms without having to spend down too much with hitters. The Giants have just a 3.75 implied line vs. Mahle and the Reds Sunday Afternoon.
Start of LAA-BAL will be delayed due to rain Sunday
The start of the matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles on Sunday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Orioles have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like John Means and Griffin Canning not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he expects this contest to play through upon the conclusion of a possibly lengthy initial delay.
As reported by: Roch Kubatko via Twitter Twins are Hot, Get Good Matchup Sunday
The Twins have lots of good options in their lineup at home vs. Daniel Norris this afternoon. Norris has a 4.93 xFIP, 4.80 SIERA with a 40.6% hard contact rate and just a 36% GB rate on the year. Norris also has an ugly 10% barrel rate allowed, a 90 MPH aEV and a .340 xwOBA allowed. Since 2017, Norris has a pretty neutral platoon split in terms of xwOBA (.366 vs. LHB, .352 vs. RHB) and can be targeted with hitters from either side of the plate. The Twins come into this game with the 2nd hottest offense in baseball over the past 10 days with a .362 xwOBA. Nelson Cruz (.406 xwOBA since 2018 vs. LHP), CJ Cron (.361), Mitch Garver (.322), Marwin Gonzalez (.317), Max Kepler (.310) and Jonathan Schoop (.302) are all good options in the Twins’ projected lineup. Mitch Garver (.458 xwOBA over the past 10 days) and CJ Cron (.450) have been the Twins hottest hitters. The Twins will also have the benefit of a very hitter-friendly umpire in Jordan Baker. They will have a 4.99 implied line vs. Norris and the Tigers.
Other tagged players: C.J. Cron, Max Kepler, Mitch Garver, Jonathan Schoop, Marwin Gonzalez, Daniel Norris Lots of Value in Jays’ Lineup
The Blue Jays get a matchup at home in the Rogers Centre vs. Lucas Giolito, who has certainly shown some flashes this year but can still be a pitcher to target. Giolito has a solid 4.06 ERA / 3.63 xFIP and 17.7 K-BB% so far this year. That said, Giolito still projects for about a 5 ERA over the rest of the season per THE BAT and Steamer. For his career, Giolito has a .357 xwOBA vs. LHB compared to a .333 xwOBA vs. RHB. Freddy Galvis (.290 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018) is just $3.6k on Draftkings and leading off for the Jays. Vlad Guerrero Jr. (175 wRC+ in AAA last year) bats 2nd at just $3.5k due to his slow start. Justin Smoak (.377 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Rowdy Tellez (.363) and Randall Grichuk (.318) are batting 3-4-5 and are all under $4k. Teoscar Hernandez (.330) bats 7th and is just $3.4k. The Blue Jays have a 4.32 implied line vs. Giolito and the White Sox Sunday Afternoon.
Other tagged players: Rowdy Tellez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddy Galvis, Teoscar Hernandez, Randal Grichuk, Lucas Giolito Griffin Canning Has Been Good So Far, Gets Nice Matchup
In two starts this year versus the Blue Jays and the Tigers, Griffin Canning has been stellar with a 2.95 xFIP and 2.84 SIERA with a 28.2% K-BB. Canning has shown a four-seamer that averages 93.3 MPH, along with a slider, curve and change that all have an xwOBA allowed under .250 and whiff rates above 30% so far. Canning will be in Baltimore Sunday afternoon to face an Orioles offense that has just an 84 wRC+ and 22% K rate vs. RHP on the year. Baltimore bats have been cold as they have just a 27th ranked .289 xwOBA over the past 10 days. The Orioles lineup today will have just two batters (Trey Mancini, Dwight Smith Jr.) who have an xwOBA above .310 vs. RHP since 2018. Canning will also have the benefit of a very pitcher-friendly umpire in Nick Mahrley. The Orioles have just a 3.49 implied line vs. Canning and the Angels. Be sure to keep an eye on this game as we approach lock, as there is a chance for a rain delay or even a PPD.
New Life for Veteran Pitcher?
Martin Perez has increased his velocity and changed his pitch selection this season. The results have been stunning, as he’s coming off two shutouts. I don’t love that he’s going to face a right-handed heavy Tigers team, but this Tigers offense is just not very good. Even against lefties, they own a 27.6% strikeout rate this season, which ranks 4th in the majors. Their team wOBA is .318, which ranks league-average, and their team wRC+ of 100 also suggests this is an average offense against southpaws. The price on Perez has risen after his streak of great games, and the secret is probably out of the bag by now that he’s a different pitcher. Still, he’s definitely on my radar for an SP2 in all formats, and a borderline SP1 now with weather taking options off the table.
