DFS Alerts
Targeting a Cheaper Stack With The Platoon Advantage
Detroit hasn’t been an offense to fear much this season ranking 29th in the league – just above the Marlins – in runs scored per game. They tend to fare better against left-handed pitchers, however, ranking 14th in OPS against lefties (.748) compared to 27th (.656) against right-handers. Tonight Detroit takes on a left-hander in Wade Miley who has allowed a .435 slugging percentage to right-handed hitters in his career (compared to .355 to lefties), and I’ll be targeting the Tigers’ right-handed hitters at the top of the lineup (Nick Castellanos, Josh Harrison, Miguel Cabrera, and Niko Goodrum) as a discount stack.
Other tagged players: Josh Harrison, Niko Goodrum, Miguel Cabrera
Former Ace Takes On High-Strikeout Lineup
Anything written about Clayton Kershaw now tends to include phrases like “not the pitcher he once was” and “injury-plagued”, but the reality is that Kershaw is a pitcher with a decent 8.54 K/9, 3.31 ERA (3.48 SIERA), and 0.98 WHIP facing a Padres team with the highest K% (26.5%) in the majors. Tonight Kershaw and the Dodgers are strong -150 favorites at home in a game with a run total just over 7 runs. With the Padres’ free-swinging ways the Dodgers left-handershas a strong shot at a win, quality start, and a high strikeout total, likely at an ownership discount compared to the more expensive pitchers on the slate.
Site Specific Values
While Chris Sale is the clear top pitcher on this slate, he is priced up to a difficult point on FanDuel. For cash games and fitting in high end tournament bats, we may need to look under the $10K mark where we find Charlie Morton and Noah Syndergaard. I slightly prefer Syndergaard in tournaments, while in cash games, I’ll side with the matchup for Morton against a Marlins team that ranks dead last in ISO and wOBA against right-handed pitching along with the highest strikeout rate in the league. Morton piles up soft contact and ground balls to righties that should make for an easy path through this lineup.
A Position To Save
Second base is one of the weaker positions on this slate, with only Whit Merrifield standing out, and being a low priority spend compared to what we have at other spots. Enter Robinson Cano at his low salary with his contact and hard hits, facing a low strikeout pitcher in Jeremy Hellickson. Since the start of 2018, Hellickson has struck out just 16.3% of lefties while Cano has an 81% contact rate with 45% hard hits leading to a .360 ISO.
No Strikeouts = No Problems
Anytime Khris Davis is facing a low strikeout pitcher, we can use him with confidence in all formats. He hits the ball hard and in the air, piling up a .292 ISO on 50% fly balls and 45% hard hits over the past two seasons against righties. Mike Leake has never had much strikeout ability, but in the early going this season it has dropped off even further to a terrible 11.1% K rate. Davis looks drastically underpriced on DK/FDRFT/Yahoo and fairly priced on FD.
Can't Argue With These Numbers
The highest strikeout rate on this slate belongs to Caleb Smith, who comes in with a huge 34.8% K rate and a 16.7% swinging strike rate that is higher than any pitcher in the league other than Blake Snell. He has six straight quality starts and 8+ K’s in four straight outings. His home ballpark is perfectly suited to his fly ball style, and tonight he faces a Tampa team that has the highest strikeout rate in the league against left-handed pitching. They do have a few dangerous bats up top, but losing a DH and having so many strikeouts lower in the order offsets any risk. I will try to use Smith as my SP2 in cash games on DK, while he’s a strong pivot off of Sale in tournaments on all sites.
The Ace Is Still The Ace
We can stop wondering what’s wrong with Chris Sale. He now has four straight starts with 8+ strikeouts and a combined 42 K’s in 26 innings over those four starts with just six walks and five runs allowed. He is still priced down from his peak after his slow start, and on two-pitcher sites, he’s too affordable to consider fading in cash games. On FD, the case can be made to save him for tournaments at his higher salary, but there is no higher upside pitcher on this slate, or any slate.
Start of MIL-PHI will be delayed due to rain Monday
The start of the matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies on Monday evening will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Phillies have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Aaron Nola not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he expects this contest to play through without a hitch upon the conclusion of the initial delay.
As reported by: Matt Breen via Twitter
Start of BAL-NYY will be delayed due to rain Monday
The start of the matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees on Monday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Yankees have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The definitive late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Luis Cessa not being pulled from the game early because of a mid-game stoppage, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, he expects this contest to play through upon the conclusion of the initial delay.
As reported by: the New York Yankees via Twitter Jason Kipnis (120 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a low cost bat in a strong spot
Reynaldo Lopez has allowed more runs (nine) than he has strikeouts (eight) in two starts since striking out 14 Tigers. Considering 22 of his 47 strikeouts this season have come against the White Sox, call that an aberration at this point and focus more on his 10.7 BB%, board worst 44.5 Z-O-Swing% plus board high 91.2 mph aEV and find some hitters to attack him with. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .328 and .345 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season, making basically any above average hitters fine plays against him on this slate. Near the top of the lineup, we find a potential bargain in Jason Kipnis (120 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP last calendar year). He costs $3.6K on DraftKings and over $1K less on FanDuel. Francisco Lindor (107 wRC+, .207 ISO) costs quite a bit more out of the leadoff spot, while Jose Ramirez (134 wRC+, .262 ISO) drops down to fifth due to recent struggles. To be frank, the Cleveland lineup hasn’t done much of anything this year, but they still look like one of the better stacking options on a tough slate.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Reynaldo Lopez
C.J. Cron has a 146 wRC+, .282 ISO vs LHP last 12 months & a 200 wRC+ over the last week
Tyler Skaggs was lit up by Detroit last time out and while he does carry a league average strikeout rate (21.5%), he does so with just an 8.4 SwStr%. While his 3.3% Barrels/BBE is best on the board, his 28.4 LD% is worst. His SIERA, xFIP and FIP are all below his 4.70 ERA, but his 5.89 DRA is much higher, perhaps a function of the mostly marginal offenses he’s faced. Even without Nelson Cruz, the Twins might be in a position to do some damage against him tonight. Their 4.82 implied run line is second best on a six game slate and they still line up with seven RHBs against Skaggs (.343 wOBA and 42.3 Hard% against RHBs last calendar year). C.J. Cron (146 wRC+, .282 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) has a 200 wRC+ over the last seven days and just hammers LHP. Mitch Garver (114 wRC+, .160 ISO) has been even hotter (298 wRC+, 77.8 Hard% last seven days) and is a rare Catcher in a leadoff spot. Marwin Gonzalez (121 wRC+, .197 ISO) is the value play here, just $3.3K on DraftKings and $2.6K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Tyler Skaggs, Marwin Gonzalez, Mitch Garver Robbie Ray has the second highest K rate (29.7%) and is facing an offense with a 23.1 K-BB% vs LHP
Robbie Ray struck out 11 Rays last time out with three walks, pushing his season rate to 29.7% (second best on the board), but that also comes with the worst walk rate (12.4%). Incidentally, his opponent, Nick Kingham (12.3%) is the only other pitcher within a full point of him tonight. Walks run up pitch counts and, as a result, Ray has only completed six innings twice this year and hasn’t recorded a seventh inning out in any start. He continues to own elite Z-Contact (82%) and Z-O-Swing (29.5%) rates, which has helped improve his overall exit velocity (87.4 mph average), but he’s still getting barreled more than any other pitcher on the board (11.4% of batted balls). The strikeout upside alone makes him incredibly useful against a Pittsburgh offense with a horrid 60 wRC+ and 23.1 K-BB% vs LHP, especially on FanDuel ($8.8K). He’s the only pitcher to reach $10K on DraftKings though. While Ray’s drawbacks can torpedo the best daily fantasy lineups on any given night, the Pirates just don’t present enough of a threat from the right-hand side to make that concern too overwhelming tonight.
Matthew Boyd (.254) and Brad Peacock (.264) have the best xwOBAs on the board
Brad Peacock struck out 12 Royals in seven innings of three hit, shutout ball last time out, one start after being clobbered by Minnesota. He’ll be facing another runt of the AL Central tonight in Detroit (77 wRC+ and 25.9 K% vs RHP, 6.7 HR/FB at home). While his most recent performance has pushed Peacock’s strikeout rate up to 24.7% on the season, there are still some concerns here. Namely a below average SwStr rate (9.3%), a 43.6 Z-O-Swing% that’s third worst on the board, and an 89.4 mph aEV that’s unbefitting his 5.7% Barrels/BBE mark with just a 39% ground ball rate. Somehow, this combination has still resulted in the second lowest xwOBA on the slate (.264), though his ERA (4.30) and DRA (4.12) are nothing to write home about. At least his SIERA (3.87) is below four. It’s really the matchup that makes this though. Peacock costs just $8.5K on either site here.
On the other side, Matthew Boyd had the best xwOBA on the board (.254) and it is completely supported by his 30.3% 95+ mph EV and 14.5 SwStr% (both also best). The predominantly right-handed order of the Astros have been hell on LHP (140 wRC+, 10.4 K-BB%, 16.3 HR/FB), but Boyd has been so good (25.8 K-BB%, 38.7 GB%, 13.7 IFFB%, 2.86 ERA, 3.09 SIERA, 2.24 DRA) that he deserves a strong look here, especially on DraftKings, where he’s less than $9K. Boyd has thrown seven straight quality starts and the two times he’s allowed three runs in that span (@BOS, vPIT), he’s completed seven innings.
Aaron Nola has just a 9.1 SwStr% last 30 days, but Brewers have a 26.7 K% vs RHP
Although not to the caliber of efficiency we’ve come to expect, Aaron Nola’s results have improved over the last month in which he has a 3.54 ERA and 3.72 SIERA. He’s walked just one in three of his last four starts and allowed a single HR over his last three. Strikeouts have picked up too, but he retains a below average swinging strike rate (8.7% for the season, 9.1% over the last month) and his 23.5 HR/FB remains worst on the board. He’s is generating the best Z-O-Swing on the slate (25.8%), but it hasn’t led to a lot of weak contact. In fact, his 25.4 LD% supports a .336 BABIP and his 90.4 mph aEV is second worst on the slate. Also consider Milwaukee’s 10 BB% and 17.9 HR/FB vs RHP in a very power friendly park and Nola should be an easy skip tonight except for a couple of outside factors with just six games on the board tonight. First, those HRs for the Brewers also come with a lot of strikeouts (26.7% vs RHP). Secondly, weather conditions are expected not only to dampen HR power significantly, but also the overall run environment. It’s cold in Philly with the wind blowing in according to the early forecast. Nola costs below $9.5K, making him the third or fourth most expensive pitcher on either site. While some of the underlying numbers are still a bit concerning, the upside in this matchup along with the pitching friendly weather may dictate daily fantasy players needing to consider him more seriously than they might otherwise like to.
Mostly Troubling
You don’t want to roster Freddy Peralta, I don’t want to roster Freddy Peralta, and neither does the public. Peralta has had a mostly troubling 2019 but has shown strong strikeout upside in the past, posting a 29.9% in 78.1 innings in 2018. I fully expect Philadelphia hitters to be way more heavily owned than Peralta, especially Bryce Harper on DraftKings, which makes Peralta an interesting tournament option strictly from a game theory perspective. I wouldn’t touch Peralta in single-entry or 3-max tournaments but exposure is warranted in multi-entry tournaments.
