DFS Alerts
Season Debut Could Go In Any Direction For Former First-Round Pitcher
It will be interesting to see which Tyler Beede shows up tonight when he makes his season debut in Cincinnati. The former first-round pick (2014) had an excellent spring and has put up a 1.99 ERA with 34 Ks in only 22.2 innings at AAA this season, in a difficult league for pitchers. Last season, however, he put up a 7.05 ERA at AAA, allowing 10 HRs in only 74 innings. The Reds are listed as one of my top stacks as the day and will likely be popular given Beede’s numbers last year, but if his turnaround is for real, you’ll gain leverage in GPPs by rolling out Beede as a cheaper, lower-owned option with upside.
Loaded With Lefty Aces
This slate is headlined by four left-handed aces – Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale, James Paxton and Matt Boyd. I like all of them, but if just choosing the one that I’m most comfortable using in all formats on all sites, I will side with James Paxton. It’s not ideal to use a fly ball pitcher against a good team in Yankee Stadium, but Paxton stands out among this tier with his back-to-back seasons over 30% strikeouts and in top form recently. On the season, his 36.2% K rate is second in the league and first on this slate, and over his last three starts he has piled up 32 strikeouts with just four walks in 20 innings. The Twins have some power, but are better overall against righties, with a combined 23.1% K rate from tonight’s projected lineup.
Start of STL-WAS will be delayed due to severe weather Thursday
The start of the matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals on Thursday afternoon will be delayed due to severe weather approaching the stadium. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Nationals have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Stephen Strasburg not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, and as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, the game is likely to play through following the initial delay but a postponement cannot be entirely ruled out either.
As reported by: the Washington Nationals via Twitter
Juan Soto (back) scratched Thursday; Michael Taylor replaces
Soto has been scratched from the Washington Nationals original confirmed lineup and will not start in Thursday’s matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals due to back spasms. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Michael Taylor, who will now play center field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Howie Kendrick, Matt Adams, Yan Gomes, Brian Dozier, and Wilmer Difo each up one batting position to third, fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh, respectively. However, the remainder of the Nationals lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Dakota Hudson at home this afternoon.
As reported by: the Washington Nationals via Twitter Other tagged players: Michael A. Taylor Fire Up The Lefties
The Mets have been in an offensive funk of late, but this is a nice spot to bank on a breakout game. The Mets have plenty of left-handed bats littered throughout their lineup, and Tyler Mahle still can’t get left-handed batters out. He has allowed a massive .415 wOBA and 45.5% hard contact rate to lefties throughout his major league career. That’s not good. Cano, Conforto, McNeil, and Nimmo make for a fine “all lefties” stack here, while the power of Pete Alonso can also be added in as a one-off play. It’s time for a breakout game.
Other tagged players: Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo
Too Cheap For The Power Upside
The Brewers lefty power bats are prime options on today’s slate. Jon Gray has always been more susceptible to left-handed power, and the splits have gotten more extreme in the early going this season. Dating back to the start of 2018, while he’s managed 56% ground balls and 32% hard hits to righties, those numbers against lefties are 43% ground balls and 40% hard hits. Mike Moustakas would be my first choice here with his 43% hard hits and 50% fly balls against righties so far this season. We can also get a lot of savings with Travis Shaw, who is due some positive regression with his 42% hard hits and 25.6% line drives.
Load Up The Lefties
The Reds’ Tyler Mahle has been awful against left-handed batters to this point in his career – 21.5% K, 14.5% BB, 25% LD, 42% FB, 46% HH, .269 ISO. All four of Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil are playable in all formats. Cano is an ideal option in cash games with his combination of contact, line drives and hard hits. Since the start of 2018, he has struck out just 14.3% of the time against righties while hitting 24% line drives with a 44% hard hit rate.
Load Up The Lefties
The Reds’ Tyler Mahle has been awful against left-handed batters to this point in his career – 21.5% K, 14.5% BB, 25% LD, 42% FB, 46% HH, .269 ISO. All four of Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil are playable in all formats. The top power option is Conforto who is hitting 48% fly balls so far this season and has a career .238 ISO against righties.
Plus Matchup and Plus Skills
Charlie Morton is a tough pitcher for any team, but the lack of patience for Kansas City plays even more to his favor. He piles up soft ground balls to right-handed batters while striking out lefties at a 34.7% clip since the start of 2018. The Royals only have one lefty with any contact ability, and the righties don’t have enough power to offset his ground balls and soft contact.
It Will Turn Around
The strikeouts may not get to the elite level we had hoped for with Noah Syndergaard, but 26% is completely acceptable when combined with low walks and a consistent ability to limit hard contact. Syndergaard has allowed a .376 BABIP on just 29% hard hits this season, and that is going to regress in his favor. Adding to his upside today, the Reds are sitting Joey Votto, leaving them with just 3 lefties in the lineup. Since the start of 2018, Syndergaard has a 56% GB rate with 27.3% K and just 23% hard hits allowed to right-handed batters.
Strong Upside
The Braves will be one of the more popular offenses to choose from this afternoon, and I like their potential upside against Matt Strahm. We haven’t seen Strahm put up a profile as solid as other new rotation mate Chris Paddack, although Strahm’s surface numbers aren’t horrible. His advanced metrics show a 4.76 xFIP and a 45% hard contact rate allowed, which is danger against this Atlanta offense. I’ll side with Albies as my top offensive option, as he should be in the leadoff spot against a lefty in Matt Strahm. That gives him an opportunity to possibly get five at-bats today, and Albies has stronger career splits against LHP with a .342 batting average and .399 wOBA. Acuna, Swanson, and the rest of the lineup make for nice adds to a GPP stack.
Other tagged players: Ronald Acuna, Dansby Swanson Strong SP2 Option
The Rays need some innings out of Charlie Morton today, as they did not get many innings out of their primary pitchers in yesterday’s doubleheader sweep at the hands of the Royals. Morton has acquainted himself well with his Tampa Bay teammates, as he has posted solid surface numbers while maintaining a very good batted ball profile in the early going. His 29% strikeout rate is right in line with his elevated marks from the last few years, and I like his odds of mowing through the Royals today with a likely longer leash because of yesterday’s doubleheader. Morton is a strong option this afternoon on the sites where this game is available for use on the early slate.
Top Pitcher on the Board
Noah Syndergaard has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball so far this year, and it was epitomized in his last start, when Syndergaard was victimized by bloop hit after bloop hit against the Brewers. His underlying peripherals are just fine, and the BABIP allowed is going to improve from the current .376 mark. He is still allowing hard contact at a sub-30% clip while striking out batters at an above average clip. This matchup is a great one against a mediocre Reds offense, and I expect vintage Syndergaard to show up this afternoon.
David Freese (ankle) scratched Wednesday; Max Muncy replaces
Freese has been scratched from the Los Angeles Dodgers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the San Francisco Giants due to a bruised ankle. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Max Muncy, who will now play first base and slot into the sixth spot in the order, which bumps Russell Martin up one batting position to fifth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Dodgers lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Madison Bumgarner on the road this evening.
As reported by: Alanna Rizzo via Twitter Other tagged players: Max Muncy Chase Anderson (finger) scratched Wednesday; Jacob Barnes will start
Anderson sustained a laceration to a finger on his throwing hand and won’t make his previously scheduled start for the Milwaukee Brewers in Wednesday’s home matchup against the Colorado Rockies due to the aforementioned ailment. He’ll be replaced on the mound by Jacob Barnes, who, like Anderson, is a right-handed pitcher, so his presence on the bump won’t alter the projections of the Rockies hitters in any significant fashion. However, be sure to double check out the updated projections in LineupHQ and the Starting Lineups page for any notable changes prior to submitting lineups for tonight’s slates.
As reported by: Adam McCalvy via Twitter Other tagged players: Jacob Barnes