DFS Alerts
It Makes Sense Today
If you listen to the podcast, then you already know I hate playing Chris Davis. Like I said yesterday, I think he makes sense against a low strikeout pitcher. Since the start of 2018, Ervin Santana has a 12.5% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters. He also has a .393 wOBA with a .296 ISO to lefties in that span. Davis has a .205 ISO with a 45.5% hard-hit rate against righties this season. His biggest issue is contact and strikeouts, which shouldn’t be as big of an issue in this spot.
Quality Start Incoming
Looking at the pitching options on FanDuel, it’s certainly a day I’m going to pay up on most of my teams. Since the start of 2018, the projected starters for the Angels have a .143 ISO with a .300 wOBA against left-handed pitching. Mike Trout is the only hitter with an ISO over .200 against lefties in that span. They don’t strikeout a lot, but I do think Sabathia has a great chance for a quality start in this spot. Even with the limited strikeouts, he has some upside at his price.
Load Up In The Outfield
The high end bats are fairly priced on FD/Yahoo tonight, and especially if not paying up to Verlander, it will be no trouble to get up to two of the big Red Sox outfielders. Mookie Betts is first for me, and then I lean towards the contact and speed of Andrew Benintendi in cash games and the power of J.D. Martinez in tournaments, although it may be possible to just play all three of them, which would be option #1.
Site Specific Values
There is just no world in which Justin Turner should cost only $3,400 on DK, regardless of matchup. And while Cole Hamels is one of the better pitchers on this slate, it’s not as if he’s an elite ace who needs to be avoided at all costs. There are 14 third baseman priced ahead of Turner tonight, and he is at worst the 3rd best hitter at the position, 2nd in my book. He hasn’t hit a home run yet this season, and I guess that’s where this discount comes from, but he has a 50% hard hit rate with 25% line drives and has been a consistently elite hitter against lefties for years. This salary is nonsense.
Site Specific Values
I like Jose Abreu on all sites tonight, but he’s noticeably cheap on FanDuel and Yahoo. Once the White Sox get into the Orioles bullpen it’s all hands on deck, but against starter John Means, Jose Abreu is the top Chicago bat to target. We don’t have much data on Means, but he’s a fly ball lefty who throws strikes, and in this ballpark, that will lead to some home run issues against right-handed power. Abreu leads the team with a .258 ISO and 42% hard hit rate against lefties since the start of 2018.
Worth The Spend
The Red Sox have the high team total on the main slate, and we have plenty of salary to spend up for at least one big outfield bat here. Over his career, Tyson Ross has been much worse against lefties, but since coming back from injury last season, his pitch mix has changed and his splits along with it. He has allowed 40% hard contact with just average 45% ground balls to righties since the start of 2018, and one thing that hasn’t changed is his susceptibility to stolen bases. I love the power upside of both Betts and J.D. Martinez, while the added stolen base threat moves Betts to the top of the list.
Hit The Ball Hard
Jose Altuve is clearly the best second base play on this slate, or any slate, but I don’t see this as the ideal position to spend that type of salary tonight. Robinson Cano and the Mets face the unpredictable Vince Velasquez, who has been a below average pitcher to lefties the past couple seasons, allowing a .232 ISO with 40% fly balls and 35% hard hits to lefties. Cano makes strong contact with just 14% K to righties, while hitting the ball hard 45% of the time along with a line drive lean.
Top Of The Hill
Justin Verlander stands alone on top tonight, coming in with another 30%+ strikeout rate this season. He has allowed a home run in each of his starts, and with the hard contact he’s allowed, maybe that continues. But with good control and a long history of fly balls and soft contact, I’m going to keep playing for the strikeout upside and hope that even if those home runs continue, they’ll come with bases empty and not cause much damage. He is priced up enough on FD/Yahoo that I would not call him a must play in cash games, but his DK/FDRFT salary is easily affordable to start your cash games. He has the highest raw points upside on the slate making him an obvious tournament target on all sites.
Best Of Tier Two
Following Justin Verlander tonight, we have a trio of good pitchers with Walker Buehler, Cole Hamels and Eduardo Rodriguez. Buehler and Hamels face each other in a game with two good offenses, while Rodriguez finds himself as a huge home favorite against Detroit. There is not a single batter in the Detroit lineup with a strikeout rate below 18% against lefties, and the early season 13.8% swinging strikes from Rodriguez imply that he can get back to the 26%+ range that he showed last year. He is playable in all formats on all sites tonight.
Upside Despite A Rash Of Injuries
The Yankees are undoubtedly the most banged up squad in baseball right now, but that just means we can get some potential value bats as part of a GPP stack. I’m intrigued by their remaining power options against a fly ball pitcher in Felix Pena, as Pena has allowed a 40.2% hard contact rate so far in his MLB sample size. Torres is the most logical option at a premium position, while Voit offers plenty of pop, and Ford offers some value. That’s my favorite three man stack here, and it’s a nice combination on a shorter slate.
Other tagged players: Mike Ford, Gleyber Torres
Contrarian Stack?
Don’t be surprised if the Phillies go a little under-owned tonight. They were a relative disappointment offensively in Coors Field last week, and many DFS players don’t love to stack them at their current prices. People also don’t like to play Bryce Harper in lefty-lefty matchups at his current salary. However, I’ll make an exception for this group against Jason Vargas, who quite frankly is just terrible at this point. He has more walks than strikeouts on the year. He has allowed hard contact at a 64% clip (wow). His SIERA is 6.65. His xFIP is 7.67. I could go on. To put it simply: fire up the middle of the order power bats with all kinds of confidence here as a great GPP stack.
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto Searching for a Second SP Option
My search for a cheaper starting pitcher tonight leads me down different paths depending on what site I am playing on. On FanDuel, where they have priced up Jordan Lyles, I’ll pivot to Eduardo Rodriguez in GPP formats. He’s never super fun to trust, but Rodriguez is a large home favorite facing off against a mediocre offense, and Vegas has installed the Tigers with one of the lowest implied team totals on the slate. Rodriguez has strikeout upside and makes sense at $8,400 on FD if you aren’t paying up for Verlander or Buehler. On other sites, I will take advantage of the still discounted price tag on Lyles. No, I don’t expect the 0.65 ERA to last, but he is keeping hitters off balance and has an impressive 29% strikeout rate in the early going. Pitching at home in a pitcher-friendly park against a mediocre offense, I’m happy to take him at these price levels as an SP #2 choice.
Other tagged players: Jordan Lyles Top Pitcher On The Evening Slate
The batted ball profile hasn’t been quite as good as what we normally see from Verlander to start the 2019 campaign, but we can attribute a lot of that to sample size. His stuff still appears to be fine, and he still holds an elite 31% strikeout rate and 13.5% swinging strike rate. His upside clearly remains intact, and he’s not going to finish the year with a 50% hard contact rate against him. I’ll bank on a bounce-back, upside performance even in a matchup against a Twins offense that has been playing well. You can make an argument to where Verlander isn’t a “must have” in cash games tonight, but I love him in GPP formats.
Large increase in swings and misses
Jose Quintana has seen his strikeout rate explode, but Statcast suggests he’s getting double the whiffs on a sinker he’s throwing the same speed, with the same spin, in the same location. Perhaps the increase in sinkers is what has caused his ground ball rate to 51.9%, but this is a tough situation to figure out. To make matters more confusing, his Z-Contact (80.5%) and Z-O-Swing (28.7%) are both elite as well. The results are fantastic even if we can’t figure out how he’s getting them. Perhaps a pass is in order here against a tough Dodger lineup (116 wRC+, 14 BB%, 20.8 HR/FB vs LHP), but they also have a 25.3 K% vs LHP so far and there are a few more marks in his favor, including a pitcher friendly umpire, slightly favorable weather conditions (Weather Edge requires a Premium subscription). Projected for just single digit ownership, perhaps Quintana is worth a flyer in GPPs tonight.
Park upgrade and favorable matchup brings value to these bats
Players looking for some cheap bats may want to turn their eyes towards Toronto this evening. After a hot start, Trent Thornton has struggled against some of the better offenses he’s faced recently. San Francisco is not one of those, but there are some alarming trends in his profile, including a 90.5 Z-Contact% that’s worst on the board. He’s allowed a 29.4 LD%, 19 HR/FB, 92.3 mph aEV and 15.7% Barrels/BBE. He’s had particular problems with LHBs (.414 wOBA, 52 Hard%, 32 GB%). Brandon Belt (114 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) has been “freed” from a terrible park in San Francisco tonight with a strong park upgrade here. Pablo Sandoval (121 wRC+, .198 ISO) has shown surprising competency from the left side of the plate over the last year. Even Steven Duggar (75 wRC+, .164 ISO) and Gerardo Parra (101 wRC+, .106 ISO) may have some value here at low cost atop the lineup. Implied for just over four runs, Giants’ bats are not projected to be particularly popular tonight and could provide a path to some of the more expensive bats in better projected offenses tonight.
Other tagged players: Brandon Belt, Trent Thornton, Steven Duggar, Gerardo Parra