DFS Alerts
How Many Reds are too Many Reds?
The Reds are just a team full of value today. I can’t write them all up so i’m going to go off the board with Mr. Iglesias. He is incredibly affordable on all sites and is a guy that is just going to put the ball in play. He’s smack dab in the middle of the order and should have some serious RBI potential here. I like his chances to drive in a few runs with his 0% k rate to begin the year. It’s at 6.9% for the past two seasons combined which I will gladly take. Iglesias isn’t the popular name, but for the price he’s a fine play.
One Off Power Bat
Suarez is one of my top overall plays on the slate tonight. He gets the lefty Eric Lauer on the mound who I think will be the most popular cheap pitcher on the slate, which could keep Suarez’s ownership down. Suarez has a 600 ISO, 514 wOBA and a 60% hard hit rate against left handed pitching this year. We get a price discount on DK at 3700 but I still love him across all sites.
High Risk High Reward
Looking for pitchers on this 5 game main slate is tough after the top two guys. In GPPs I like taking a shot with Trevor Cahill. He is going up against a dangerous Seattle lineup who has been hitting well this season. Cahill has a 27% K rate to right handed batters and he has shown good control this season with a walk rate of 4%. The Seattle lineup has a 24% K rate to right handed pitching this season. Definitely a high risk, high reward play but with very few options on this slate, I like it for GPPs.
In A Great Spot Tonight
Luis Castillo is the pitcher I want to pay up for in GPPs. Castillo has a 33% K rate this year and gets a Padres lineup that has six players with a 25%+ K rate. Castillo also benefits from playing in San Diego in one of the best pitcher’s ballparks. With all that I think he is a great pivot in GPPs off of Gerrit Cole, who I think will come in as the chalkiest pitcher on the slate.
Contrarian Spend Up
On tonights slate we have a lot of great outfielders to spend up on. Cody Bellinger is someone I love in tournaments tonight. With Trout and Harper being the two chalkiest plays in the outfield I think Bellinger comes in a little under owned. Bellinger gets to play in Milwaukee which is one of the best hitter’s ball parks against Chase Anderson who has a hard hit rate of 38% and a fly ball rate of 47%. Bellinger’s numbers vs right handed pitching are ridiculous this season with a 545 ISO and 640 wOBA. I think its a great spot for him tonight.
At These Price Tags, Yes!
Can you roster hitters against Gerrit Cole? At these price tags, yes! Both Danny Santana and Nomar Mazara can be used as secondary cash options if looking for some salary relief. The matchup is tough, sure, but the hitting environment is good and Mazara specifically is underpriced for his skill-set.
Other tagged players: Danny Santana
Wind Blowing Out Vs. Fly Ball Pitcher
Though Dan Straily isn’t awful, he gives up a ton of fly balls (45.8% FB for his career) and a good portion of them end up over the wall (1.47 career HR/9). Straily faces a decent Twins offense today with the wind blowing out directly to left at 16 MPH. For his career, Straily is slightly worse versus LHB (.327 wOBA allowed vs. LHB, .316 vs RHB) but gives up more HR to RHB (1.61 HR/9 vs. 1.33). The Twins have the 2nd highest implied total of all teams today at 5.67. Nelson Cruz (career 123 wRC+ vs. RHP), Willians Astudillo (career 129 wRC+ vs. RHP) and Jonathan Schoop (career 100 wRC+ vs. RHP) are right-handed bats in the Twins’ order that will try to take advantage of the wind blowing out to left. Other non-RHB options include Max Kepler (leading off, 107 career wRC+ vs. RHP), Jorge Polanco (214 wRC+ this year), Eddie Rosario (144 wRC+ this year), and Marwin Gonzalez (60 wRC+ this year, career 103 wRC+ vs. RHP).
Other tagged players: Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Willians Astudillo, Jonathan Schoop, Dan Straily
Bang For Your Buck
Conversely to Blackmon, Suarez is underpriced on DraftKings but still in play in cash formats elsewhere. Suarez is coming off a HR last night and will once again have the platoon advantage on Saturday against Eric Lauer. Suarez has dominated lefty pitching throughout his career with a 135 wRC+ and .227 ISO and provides you with a lot of bang for your buck.
Walk It Off
Charlie Blackmon….is still just $3,600 on FanDuel. Blackmon is a viable cash game option at a higher price across the industry as well, as the lefty outfielder has proven himself against right handed pitching over his career with a 117 wRC+ and .209 ISO. Aaron Nola has struggled mightily to start the season as he’s struggled to keep the ball in the yard already giving up 5 HRs in 19.1 IP. Coors isn’t a place pitchers go to fix what’s ailing them and Nola’s pitch mix of vertical off-speed stuff doesn’t project to translate well in altitude.
Price Still Not Adjusting for this SP
I wrote up Derek Holland before his last start as a guy who made legit changes about half-way through 2018 and has seen much better results since, yet still carries a discounted price. His new release point and pitch selection has helped him increase his strikeout rate and peripherals, especially vs. RHB where he’s largely struggled throughout his career. Holland still carries a discounted price, especially on Draftkings where his price actually decreased from his last start. Holland gets a solid matchup today vs. a weak-hitting Pirates team in pitcher-friendly PNC Park. The Pirates rank dead last in the league with a 50 wRC+ vs. LHP and a 2nd worst 29.9% K rate. Their projected lineup contains just one batter (Francisco Cervelli) who had an xwOBA vs. LHP greater than .310 in 2018. The Pirates have just a 3.77 implied total vs. Holland and the Giants this afternoon.
K is King
While Gerrit Cole is Saturday night’s top pitcher in terms of raw projection, Luis Castillo offers a significant discount that is valuable to optimal lineup construction on a short slate with Coors and Arlington on it. Castillo has looked sharp to start the season with a massive 33.3 K% and 16.1 SwStr%. High strikeout numbers have given Castillo a reliable fantasy floor and his matchup against the Padres is a favorable in terms of strikeouts, with 8-of-9 hitters (including pitcher) in the Padres projected lineup posted strikeout rates north of 22% last season against right handed pitching.
Not Easy to Trust Despite Low Implied Total
Yu Darvish has been shaky this year to say the least. He’s walking 7.64 batters per 9 with a 5.29 xFIP, .357 xwOBA allowed and a 2.04 HR/9. It’s not like he’s had a tough schedule; he’s faced Miami, Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Texas. Still, the Diamondbacks are sitting at just a 3.2 implied total for this afternoon’s game vs. Darvish and the Cubs in Wrigley. That is the lowest total on the afternoon slate, and will certainly give Darvish some attention in GPPs. Given his struggles that have carried over from 2018, I don’t quite see why the total is so low here even with a matchup vs. a weak D-Backs offense. Using a D-backs stack or two for some leverage might not be a horrible idea. Jarrod Dyson leads off for ARI and is a nice value with SB upside. Christian Walker (.416 xwOBA vs. RHP in 2019), Adam Jones (.387) and David Peralta (.295, career 132 wRC+ vs. RHP) make for interesting plays at the core of the D-Backs lineup.
Other tagged players: Christian Walker, David Peralta, Adam Jones, Jarrod Dyson CHW-DET postponed due to rain Saturday
The game between the Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers on Saturday afternoon has been postponed due to rain forecasted throughout the remainder of the day. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Tuesday, August 6th at 1:10 pm EST as part of a day-night doubleheader. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Saturday’s daily fantasy slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: Evan Woodbery via Twitter
A Top Value In A Great Lineup Spot
We have Kemp projected as the cleanup hitter for the Reds tonight, and his career numbers have always profiled better against left-handed pitching. I don’t really like the Reds as a whole tonight, but Kemp is cheap and facing a pitcher that struggles with hard contact. If he’s in the middle of the order, I love Kemp as a one off value play.
Great Matchup
It would not shock me if the Houston bats carry the highest ownership on tonight’s main slate. They draw a mouth-watering matchup in a great hitting environment against a bad pitcher in Adrian Sampson. Their implied team total matches Philadelphia as the top mark on the slate. Sampson has a SIERA and xFIP near 5.00 in his brief major league sample size, and he has allowed a plethora of hard contact. That doesn’t bode well against a humming Astros team that is 11-1 over their last twelve games. Alex Bregman leads the team with a .395 wOBA and a 159 wRC+ against RHP this year, and he checks in as my core play from this group.