DFS Alerts
The Not So Curious Case of Corey Oswalt
The case for Corey Oswalt goes something like this: he’s cheap and he’s facing the Marlins. Not much else can be said in favor of the Mets righty who has struggled significantly at times this season and is almost certainly a below average pitcher. Zach Davies is my preferred option over Oswalt in this price range, and you’re not playing Oswalt on FanDuel where Tyler Glasnow is cheap, but Davies/Oswalt teams sure are fun on DK.
Site Specific Value
FanDuel has not caught up to the improvements of Tyler Glasnow, making him the standout value on that site. I would still recommend getting up to Gerrit Cole in cash games, but if you want to load up some bats tonight, Glasnow is the way to make that happen. His strikeouts have come down recently, but his control has improved dramatically along with it and he now has four quality starts in his last five games. He has the talent for his strikeouts to spike back up at anytime, but even if they remain around the K per inning range, his ground balls and low hard contact to lefties will help drown out the Toronto power in this ballpark.
Strong Home Matchup
It seems a little counter-intuitive to consider a guy like Zach Davies as a top SP play but it fits the context of a slate that is stacked with high priced hitting options. Davies gets a strong home matchup for the Brewers against an already poor Tigers offense that will be losing the DH and has an implied run total of 3.3 runs. Davies and his below league average 17.5% strikeout rate don’t give him a ton of upside, and he’ll have a short leash with a fresh bull pen and the Brewers still in the hunt of a Divisional title, but there’s still plenty of room for him to return value on his cheap price tag across the industry.
Go Right Back Here Tonight
The Mariners were a disappointment on Thursday, but that gives us a chance to go right back to them in a favorable spot, likely at far less ownership on a bigger slate. Martin Perez has managed just a 12% strikeout rate to right-handed batters, with a huge 44% hard hit rate. Nelson Cruz continues to mash lefties, with a .295 ISO, .399 wOBA and 51% hard hits this season. He is simply underpriced for his skills in this matchup on DK/FDRFT.
Salary Not Budging
Jay Bruce continues to see a salary that is lower than his long term skill set after an injury riddled season. Since coming back in late August, he looks like his old self with solid plate skills and a 51% fly ball rate leading to a .357 OBP, .247 ISO and .369 wOBA. The weakness for Miami’s Jose Urena is left-handed power, allowing 40% hard contact with just 16.8% strikeouts to lefties. Along with teammates Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo, this is a high upside outfield, with Bruce being the easiest to fit at his salary.
One More Time - Don't Overthink It
You’ve heard me say it a lot this season, and this will be the last time, but Don’t Overthink It! The Rockies at home against Joe Ross and the Nationals bullpen are easily the top offense on the slate, and if you can afford them, just play them. The long term stats of Joe Ross show a pitcher who is much more susceptible to lefties so I would start with the outfield duo of Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl, just slightly ahead of the big righties Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story. If you want to ride the hot streak of Dahl ahead of Blackmon, that is understandable, though I’ll still side with the track record of Blackmon to lead things off.
Hey, They Haven't Been Terrible!
The Mets are not a good baseball team, but they’ve been better of late and got a nice win over the Braves last night. Jose Urena has the same issues as last night’s opposing starter in that he often struggles with power-hitting left-handed bats. Jeff McNeil has been a bright spot for the Mets in the second half, and both he and Nimmo have solid numbers against right-handed pitching. I like the lefties as a potential under-the-radar stack in this spot.
Other tagged players: Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto
Savings With An Ace
Gerrit Cole would be the top pitcher tonight for projected points, but it’s a small gap between him and Patrick Corbin and Hyun-Jin Ryu, and on DK/FDRFT, the salary gap is wide enough that I lean towards passing on Cole, and dropping down to Corbin/Ryu. I side with Corbin, as the Diamondbacks have no reason to artificially limit his innings in his last start of the year. His strikeouts have remained steadily in the 31% range all season, and his control is at an elite 4.1% walks in the second half. He finally had a bad start last week, but still had five strikeouts in three innings, and prior to that outing, you have to go back 12 starts to find a time when Corbin didn’t strike out at least seven batters. There are three right-handed batters with enough power to cause him a little trouble with all the hard contact he allows, but the strikeout upside outweighs the power downside and I would be happy with Corbin in all formats tonight.
The Ace On Top
We’ve got a solid top tier of pitchers tonight, and on FanDuel, the salary gap between them is close enough that we can just go all the way up to Gerrit Cole. He’s the highest strikeout pitcher on this slate to begin with at 35.1%, and he gets to face the Orioles, whose active roster against right-handed pitching ranks 29th in runs, 27th in ISO and wOBA with the leagues 4th highest strikeout rate. They are bad and Cole is good. Though his innings should be expected to be moderately limited in this final regular season start, he’s been held to the 5-6 inning range for most of the past couple months, and the upside has remained. He has 8+ strikeouts in 11 of his last 13 games and there’s no reason not to expect that again tonight.
The Don't Get Cute Spot?
This might just be the one spot where you don’t want to over-think things. The Rockies are steam-rolling through the end of their schedule and are currently riding a seven game winning streak. They just swept a four-game series from the Phillies by out-scoring them 39-7 over four games. This team is on fire right now. David Dahl is crushing everything, Charlie Blackmon is taking much better at-bats than what we saw in August, and the Rockies are capable of scoring a ton of runs at Coors Field. They have the highest implied team total on the slate by a wide margin at just over six runs, and Joe Ross is a good-but-not-great major league arm. Fire up Dahl and Blackmon as elite plays in all formats, and the full stack is absolutely a fine way to go in GPPs.
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado A Sneaky Late Night Stack
The Mariners disappointed in a favorable matchup on Thursday, but I am fine going back to the well in what will surely be lower ownership on a full slate tonight. Martin Perez has awful numbers that include a hard hit rate over 40%, a meager 12% strikeout rate, an ERA over six, and a SIERA right at 5.00. He has allowed an opposing wOBA over .400 and a 45% hard contact rate to right-handed batters. This is a great spot to fire up Seattle’s right-handed bats, with Cruz, Haniger, and Segura topping the list. Mike Zunino might also be a nice catcher value tonight on sites where you need to roster one. Don’t sleep on this offense in this matchup.
Other tagged players: Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura, Mike Zunino Plenty of GPP Upside
At this point, we all know that things can go south in a hurry on Tyler Glasnow. However, we also know that there is plenty of upside when he brings his “A” stuff. He has been steadier over his last three starts and threw 98 pitches in his last outing, so there are encouraging signs here. His 29% strikeout rate and 11% swinging strike rate show his potential upside, and this isn’t a poor matchup against a similarly hit-or-miss Blue Jays team. The price tag is fair on all sites, and I’ll happily target him as a cheaper starting pitching option in GPP formats.
Leveraging a Big Game Spot
The only real negative with Ryu is that he seemingly is never allowed to top 100 pitches in any start. It’s only a small concern, though, when you’re pitching as well and as efficiently as he has been over the past two months. He has 50 strikeouts and just THREE walks over his last eight starts, and the great command allows him to pitch fairly deep into games despite lower pitch limits. This is a huge game for the Dodgers, as they are still alive in both the NL West and Wild Card races, and Ryu draws a favorable matchup against a depleted Giants lineup. With everything on the line for the Dodgers, you can make a case for Ryu as the top pitching option on this slate.
May As Well Go Cheap Now
With Gerrit Cole being rained out, we are left with basically a pitcher-less slate. None of the pitchers below Cole standout from each other, and at that point, I’d rather just take the reasonable option with the lowest salary, which is Marco Gonzales on FanDuel. He’s not an exciting DFS pitcher, but he’s a solid real life pitcher with excellent control, facing a team with a lack of right-handed power in his helpful home ballpark. In tournaments, I would spread out exposure among Gonzalez, Lester, Williams and Teheran, but I’ll start with the savings in Seattle.
Thursday's HOU-BAL game has been postponed due to rain
The matchup between the Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles on Thursday night has been postponed due to anticipated inclement weather throughout the evening. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Saturday, September 29 at 4:05 pm EST as part of a traditional, single-admission doubleheader. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Thursday’s slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: Eduardo A. Encina via Twitter