DFS Alerts

A .400+ xwOBA and 90.8 mph aEV

The Mariners have a healthy 4.84 implied run line in a tough park in Seattle. The Texas Rangers have the worst bullpen FIP on the board over the last month (5.37) and starter Ariel Jurado hasn’t been much better (.404 xwOBA, 90.8 mph aEV this season). While LHBs have torched him with a .445 wOBA, Statcast brings his xwOBA against RHBs up 81 points to within 24 points of his .417 mark against LHBs. This is a lineup that can do some damage with just Kyle Seager (78 wRC+, .194 ISO) below a 100 wRC+ among the first six in the order and only Jean Segura (105 wRC+, .106 ISO) below a .185 ISO among that group. Mitch Haniger (135 wRC+, .224 ISO), Robinson Cano (132 wRC+, .185 ISO) and Nelson Cruz (131 wRC+, .243 ISO) are your top bats in a nice looking stack.

Concern for one important spot in the forecast

Kevin’s forecast has been updated for Thursday with concern remaining in one important spot on the six game slate. The full report is available on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can join Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET for further updates.

Numbers against RHBs make this lineup usable

The Twins have a 4.76 implied run line at home against Francisco Liriano despite only three batters in the lineup above a .320 xwOBA against LHP this season. One of them is Joe Mauer (102 wRC+, .082 ISO vs LHP), another is Willians Astudillo, who has less than 30 PAs vs LHP, the other is Tyler Austin (126 wRC+, .310 ISO). Austin is also the only one of the first six batters in the order above a .151 ISO vs LHP this year too. How is this possible? Consider Francisco Liriano’s .358 wOBA against RHBs, which makes the top two thirds of the Minnesota offense likely all playable tonight. Players are attacking the pitcher here despite the lack of potency in this lineup.

As was the case last night, against another Chicago pitcher who struggles against RHBs, the Pirates may have some affordable bats against Jon Lester. While RHBs have just a .303 wOBA against him this year, xwOBA drives that mark up to .351. Starling Marte (93 wRC+, .191 ISO vs LHP) is the only batter in the lineup exceeding $4K on DraftKings. Francisco Cervelli (126 wRC+, .175 ISO) joins him above $3K on FanDuel. Jose Osuna (120 wRC+, .294 ISO) is a small sample superstar, but costs just $3.1K on DraftKings in the middle of this order.

Park upgrade in a great matchup

The Astros have most of their key players in for a meaningless game with weather concerns in Baltimore. It is a sizable park upgrade against a pitcher allowing batters from either side of the plate a wOBA above .350 (David Hess), followed by one of the worst bullpens in the game. As a result, the Astros have a board high 5.28 implied run line that shouldn’t really suffer much with Springer out of the lineup. Josh Reddick (81 wRC+, .113 ISO vs RHP) might have some value in this spot. Top bats are Jose Altuve (142 wRC+, .144 ISO), Alex Bregman (156 wRC+, .247 ISO) and Tyler White (148 wRC+, .264 ISO).

Well projected offense against a strong contact manager

Trevor Williams is a strong contact manager (85.4 mph aEV) with just an 18.1 K%. His strikeout rate has spiked to 28.1% over the last month, but that’s a bit misleading with just a 9.1 SwStr%. Still an improvement over his 7.7% mark for the season. This has increased Williams’ price above $9K on either site, yet the Cubs are also implied for five runs even tonight. While the forecast does call for a light wind blowing out, cooler temperatures could offset that effect. It’s possible both sides are over-valued here. Batters from either side of the plate are below a .290 wOBA against Williams this year and while xwOBA raises both sides substantially (34 to 49 points), that still only puts him in a league average range within six points of .320 either way. Each of the first five Cubs in the order are between a 120 and 140 wRC+ vs RHP this year and only Ben Zobrist (126 wRC+, .155 ISO) is below a .190 ISO. These Cubs are certainly playable at mostly reasonable prices, except Javier Baez (132 wRC+, .270 ISO), if not paying up for pitching.

Slim pickings at pitcher tonight do probably necessitate that you might at least want to consider Julio Teheran, who’s been pitching well lately, but he’s also known to struggle with LHBs (.326 wOBA, .366 xwOBA this season). The Mets’ lineup has three LHBs in the top half, who have been very successful against RHP this year, including Brandon Nimmo (162 wRC+, .250 ISO), who finds himself back in the leadoff spot, Jeff McNeil (145 wRC+, .135 ISO), who’s 62 point wOBA/xwOBA gap does suggest he’s running a bit hot, and Michael Conforto (124 wRC+, .202 ISO), who has a 295 wRC+ over the last week. A negative run environment does keep the Mets’ implied run line below four.

Josh Tomlin has been allowed to throw 65.2 innings this year despite LHBs owning a .479 wOBA against him this year. His xwOBA does suggest that may be a fluke, as it drops that mark all the way down to .443. RHBs have a .340 wOBA and .364 xwOBA as well. Kansas City is a positive run environment even if it does suppress power and Tomlin is inefficient at generating either ground balls or weak contact. While Ryan O’Hearn (221 wRC+, .434 ISO vs RHP) is a small sample superstar, he’s reasonably priced in a great spot tonight. The Royals have a 4.25 implied run total that is just middle of the board because a healthy Tribe does have a quality pen, but each of the first three batters in the order for Kansas City are above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year as well. Raul Mondesi (113 wRC+) adds a .214 ISO and Alex Gordon (107 wRC+, .160 ISO) remains fairly cheap. Josh Tomlin is tied for the worst fWAR (-1.3) in baseball this season.

Most important bats still present for well projected offense resting players

While the Indians are resting a few players, the biggest dogs are still in the lineup: Francisco Lindor (119 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP) and Jose Ramirez (159 wRC+, .315 ISO). Against Glenn Sparkman, batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 wOBA in 33 innings this year. He has not exceeded four innings in any outing, start or relief, and is backed by a poor bullpen (4.66 FIP, 8.3 K-BB% last 30 days). Cleveland has a 5.25 implied run line that’s second best on the board and they should sustain most of that even with this lineup. Greg Allen (79 wRC+, .091 ISO) bats second and costs just $2.5K on FD.

Finally Finding Form

Lester has gone from being a pitcher that we thought would regress to a pitcher that was unlucky to a pitcher that has been good over the last month of play. In his last three starts, he has a 3.15 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 6%. With the Cubs in must-win mode, they are one of the few teams that truly has something to play for. Even though the wind is blowing out, Lester is arguably the second best pitching option of the slate.

It's That Time of Year

Analysis coming soon.The Cubs have one of the highest implied totals on the board, even though they are facing a pitcher in great form. The reasoning behind the high total is pretty simple — the Cubs have a talented offense, the wind is blowing out to center, and this is a team with plenty of motivation. On the season, Trevor Williams has allowed a .326 xwOBA to left-handed hitters with a k-rate of only 13%. Daniel Murphy always comes alive at this time of year and currently owns a .203 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Daily Bullpen Alert: Several poor pens to choose from on a short slate

Only two major league bullpens exceed a FIP of five over the last 30 days. On just a six game slate, as luck would have it, one of those bullpens is active tonight in Los Angeles (AL). The Texas Rangers (5.37 FIP, 7.2 K-BB%) will be starting Ariel Jurado, who’s last four appearances have come out of the pen and who has only exceeded five innings in two of 11 major league outings. Other spots to consider attacking are in Kansas City (4.66 FIP, 8.3 K-BB%) hosts Cleveland with Glenn Sparkman (8 IP in 2 starts) getting the nod and probably also an early hook and Minnesota (4.44 FIP, 12.0 K-BB%), who are riding that pen the entire way against Detroit. Though Julio Teheran has been pitching well, the Atanta bullpen has a 4.32 FIP and 3.9 K-BB% over the last month. The Orioles (4.76 FIP, 10 K-BB%) could get into the bullpen early for their home game against the Astros if there’s a rain delay or if David Hess gives them his usual effort, which has led to to a 5.85 FIP that’s even worse than the pen.

Lefties are Always Viable in this Matchup

The book on Julio Teheran is a short one and it’s easy to read to. You avoid right-handed hitters against him, as he has held righties to a .308 xwOBA with a 27% strikeout rate. His numbers take a huge hit when facing a batter from the left side of the plate — .366 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. Jay Bruce is cheap across the industry and boasts a .376 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

No Need to Overthink this One

We kick off tonight’s six-game slate with the best pitcher available. Cole has had a breakout season for the Astros, posting a 2.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35%. The most amazing part is that he hasn’t slowed down at all. Over his last two starts, his k-rate is up to 42%. He draws a dream matchup against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .305 with a strikeout rate of 22% against right-handed pitching. Strikeouts should be plentiful for Cole tonight.

I Like This Stat For Home Runs

Atlanta has been really good against right-handed pitching this season, and one name that stands out because of his price is Johan Camargo. He has a .224 ISO with a .365 wOBA and a .406 CXwOBA against left-handed pitching this season. He also has a very good 323.9 average air distance against lefties. I always like looking at this stat when I’m searching for cheaper home runs. Vargas is a fly ball/ground ball neutral pitcher, but he has struggled with right-handed hitters. He has a .379 wOBA with a .242 ISO against righties this season.