DFS Alerts
Yet another matchup where LHBs should shine
At 6.07 implied runs, no other offense even comes close to the Rockies tonight. Only two more are even above five runs. Joe Ross makes his third start of the season and is trailed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball in the second half of the season. Ross has a nearly 100 point career split (LHBs .362 wOBA, RHBs .271 wOBA), which emphasizes LHBs for the Rockies yet again this week. Charlie Blackmon (117 wRC+, .220 ISO) and David Dahl (138 wRC+, .302 ISO) have been the top bats against RHP this year. Nolan Arenado (96 wRC+, .193 ISO), Trevor Story (108 wRC+, .237 ISO) and Carlos Gonzalez (104 wRC+, .197 ISO) all project fairly well in this environment as well.
Other tagged players: David Dahl, Trevor Story, Carlos Gonzalez, Joe Ross, Nolan Arenado
Environment makes RHBs playable against a tough lefty
While the Washington Nationals have a very modest 4.43 implied run line at Coors, RHBs still have a .305 wOBA/.324 xwOBA) against Kyle Freeland. That’s right around or maybe even a bit better than average, but considering the environment, quality RHBs for the Nationals are still in play here. That includes Victor Robles (226 wRC+ last seven days), Trea Turner (114 wRC+, .134 ISO) and Anthony Rendon (139 wRC+, .276 ISO), who all seem priced up for Coors though.
Other tagged players: Trea Turner, Victor Robles, Kyle Freeland Eight RHBs with at least a 117 wRC+ and .197 ISO vs LHP
Conditions may not be as favorable as they normally are tonight, but chances are Fenway is still a positive run environment tonight and the Yankees are visiting, needing to win to host the wild card game, with a 4.77 implied run line (fifth best on the board) against a pitcher (Brian Johnson) who has allowed RHBs a .348 wOBA this season with a struggling bullpen behind him. Eight Yankees will come to the plate from that side. All eight have at least a 118 wRC+ and .197 ISO vs LHP this year. Giancarlo Stanton (179 wRC+, .340 ISO) and Luke Voit (179 wRC+, .348 ISO) have been out of this world against southpaws this year with Aaron Judge’s own great numbers (157 wRC+, .262 ISO) paling in comparison.
Other tagged players: Luke Voit, Aaron Judge, Brian Johnson Powerful lineup will have to battle conditions
Normally, a matchup with fly ball and HR prone Ian Kennedy (30 GB%, 19 HRs in 21 starts), even in a power suppressing park (though actually a positive run environment) like Kansas City. However, tonight the temperature is supposed to be in the 50s with 10-15 mph winds blowing in, which should make those fly balls less likely to convert into extra-base hits. The Indians are one of just nine teams above 4.5 implied runs (4.53), but conditions might be the reason they’re a bit lower than expected with a game total that has dropped from 8.5 to 8 since opening. With their normal lineup intact, the top half still looks fairly strong against a pitcher allowing batters from either side of the plate an xwOBA above .335 and hard hit rate above 37%. While Francisco Lindor (119 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP), Michael Brantley (138 wRC+, .191 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (157 wRC+, .312 ISO) are the obvious bats, Kennedy has actually been worse against RHBs (.351 wOBA). Edwin Encarnacion (121 wRC+, .253 ISO) may have some value here, while Josh Donaldson (98 wRC+, .164 ISO) is rounding back into form. He has a lineup leading 182 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson, Ian Kennedy Let's Keep that Home Run Streak Going
We can consider all of the other offenses in this slate appetizers. The Rockies are the main course. They are playing at home in Coors Field, they are still battling for the NL West division title, and they have been on a tear over the last couple of weeks. Throughout his career, Joe Ross has struggled against left-handed hitters and this season in particular, he hasn’t been able to strike anyone out. David Dahl has home runs in four straight games and owns a .242 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Can't Ask for a Better Matchup
Davies is hands-down my favorite value play on DraftKings ($5,300) tonight. His numbers as a whole aren’t great, but he should eat up innings in a game where he is a massive favorite. The real reason to target him tonight is his matchup against the Tigers. They lose the use of the DH and their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .263 with a strikeout rate of 33%.
Ride the Hot Streak
The Yankees have motivation, they are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, they hit as many home runs as any team in baseball, and they draw a favorable matchup. It’s hard not to like this offense. On the season, Brian Johnson has allowed a .368 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to righties. It’s always hard to predict the motivation of players on bad teams at this point of the season, but we know the Yankees have plenty to play for. They are one of the top stacks of the slate. Andrew McCutchen, Aaron Judge, Luke Voit, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez all bat from the right side and all boast a .385+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.
Daily Bullpen Alert: Nationals at Coors tonight
The Marlins (5.84 FIP, 8.4 K-BB%) and Rangers (5.31 FIP, 7.1 K-BB%) are the only two bullpens in baseball above a five FIP over the last month. Both are in very pitcher friendly parks tonight with Jose Urena at NY (NL) and Martin Perez in Seattle. Each team does have some bats who may be worth rostering tonight. The Nationals (4.98 FIP, 9.2 K-BB%) haven’t been much better and Joe Ross makes just his third start at Coors. Tonight’s pitchers averaging less than five innings per start include Chase De Jong, Corey Oswalt, Brian Johnson, Eric Lauer and Jaime Barria. De Jong is at home in the second game of a double-header against the White Sox, backed by a bullpen with a 4.51 FIP and 10.6 K-BB% over the last month. The Met bullpen has been much improved over the last 30 days (3.73 FIP, 15.9 K-BB%) and face the Marlins. The Boston bullpen has been very average (4.25 FIP, 13.3 K-BB%) and run up against the Yankees at Fenway. The Padres (3.12 FIP, 21.7 K-BB%) are not a bullpen to trifle with. The Angels (4.09 FIP, 9.6 K-BB%) take their poor peripherals up against the A’s.
Lower priced pitching value is may be difficult to come by on Friday
While there are some expensive pitchers in great spots tonight, finding value among the mid-tier and lower priced pitchers tonight might be a bit more difficult. Wade LeBlanc (19.4 K%, 4.33 SIERA, .333 xwOBA) has a 4.82 SIERA to go with his 1.91 ERA over the last month, but also a .311 xwOBA that’s lower than his season mark. He’s in a great park in Seattle against the Rangers (82 wRC+ on the road, 86 wRC+ vs LHP) for a cost around $7K. Tyler Glasnow (28.7 K%, 3.60 SIERA, .317 xwOBA) has cooled a bit over the last month (21.1 K%, .347 xwOBA) He’s pitched in some tough parks against some tough offenses in that span though and actually faces Toronto for the third time in five starts, but the first at home. After being bludgeoned for seven runs in less than an inning the first time, he threw a quality start in Toronto last time out. There is a $1.8K gap in his price tag from DraftKings to FanDuel. Jose Urena (18.6 K%, 4.30 SIERA, .323 xwOBA) moves from one extremely negative run environment to another. The Mets are a league average offense against RHP, but have just an 87 wRC+ and 9.8 HR/FB at home. Urena costs less than $8K.
Other tagged players: Jose Urena, Tyler Glasnow Elite Pitcher in an Elite Matchup
Cole was expected to start last night’s game, but it was rained out. Luckily for everyone that was planning to play him, the game was postponed a half-hour before lineups locked. On the season, Cole owns a 2.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35%. He draws one of the best matchups on the board, as the Orioles’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .305 with a strikeout rate of 22% against right-handed pitching. If you can find the salary cap to get up to him, Cole deserves to be considered the number one pitching option tonight.
Some great matchups for top priced pitchers
Three pitchers reach exceed the $10K price point on both sites on Friday night, two more on DraftKings only. Patrick Corbin (31 K%, 2.89 SIERA, .294 xwOBA) could be a dark horse Cy Young candidate some years and has a nice matchup in San Diego (87 wRC+, 16.2 K-BB% vs LHP) for less than $11K. Hyun-Jin Ryu (28.5 K%, 3.06 SIERA, .277 xwOBA) has the top xwOBA on the board and a great matchup at home against the Giants (80 wRC+, 16.1 K-BB% vs LHP). However, he’s topped out at 93 pitches this season and the position of the Dodgers in the standings could give him a shorter leash. Gerrit Cole (35.1 K%, 2.88 SIERA, .284 xwOBA) has a great matchup in Baltimore (90 wRC+, 16.5 K-BB% vs RHP) too, but it’s a significant park downgrade in a game where the Astros have absolutely no reason to extend him. Mike Clevinger (25.7 K%, 3.87 SIERA, .298 xwOBA) is likewise only getting his work in against the Royals (92 wRC+ vs RHP), though in some pitcher favorable conditions in Kansas City. J.A. Happ (26.2 K%, 3.64 SIERA, .315 xwOBA) is pitching a meaningful game for the Yankees, who want to play the wild card game at home, but he’s pitching that game at Fenway, where the Red Sox have a 115 wRC+, though only a 93 wRC+ vs LHP.
Other tagged players: Hyun-Jin Ryu, Gerrit Cole, Mike Clevinger, J.A. Happ Cheap Little Pop
A drum that I beat a lot at the beginning of the season was that while SafeCo is certainly a pitcher’s park, it has been more or less neutral in terms of power over the last few seasons. Power is something Ryon Healy possesses when he has a platoon advantage like he will Friday night against Martin Perez. Healy is the owner of a career .191 ISO versus southpaws and is a cheap way to get a little pop in your lineup.
Above Average Versus Lefties
Some of the slate’s best value comes in the outfield on Friday as Souza represents another value outfielder with the platoon advantage. Souza is another guy that doesn’t stand out as a great hitter but does have a slightly above average offensive skill-set against LHP for his career (106 wRC+). Context isn’t great for Souza with this game being played at PetCo but I’m still fine using him as a value option in all formats.
Outfield Value
Kole Calhoun stands out as one of the better value options in the outfield as the Angels host the fly balling Mike Fiers on Friday night. Calhoun has had a down 2018 but has shown a solid offensive skill-set against RHP over the course of his career with a 108 wRC+ and .173 ISO. Despite a poor on base profile this season Calhoun has shown more power against righties this year with a .191 ISO.
So Much Power Upside
In the search for home runs, it doesn’t get much better than the Brewers at home against Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann has allowed a 2.52 HR/9 in the second half, with multiple homers in seven of his last 13 starts. He is backed by a bad bullpen and facing a massive ballpark downgrade, especially in terms of left-handed power. The righty power of Jesus Aguilar is also a strong play, but I’ll start with the lefty trio of Christian Yelich (.276 ISO), Mike Moustakas (.235 ISO) and Travis Shaw (.290 ISO). Shaw gets the best combination of lineup spot and salary, making him my first target here.
