DFS Alerts
Nice Leverage Spot
I’d expect Cody Reed to be a chalkier option on DraftKings and FantasyDraft tonight, and while I don’t mind using him in this matchup, taking bats against him will be a nice leverage spot. I pick on the Marlins a lot, and while I don’t think they have a lot of power options, I do like Brian Anderson against left-handed pitching. He has a .149 ISO with a .421 CXwOBA and a 44.8% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitchers. The biggest concern is Reed is a groundball pitcher, and Anderson tends to hit a lot of groundballs. There is some power upside here, and at this price, I’m willing to roll the dice.
Underpriced For This Matchup
I really like the White Sox tonight, and I like to target them when facing a pitcher with a low strikeout rate. Josh Tomlin has a 13.5% strikeout rate with a 5.54 xFIP and a 39.3% hard-hit rate on the season. If you’re playing on FanDuel tonight, there’s no doubt that you should have Daniel Palka in your lineup. He has a .289 ISO with a .490 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching this season, while Tomlin owns a .487 wOBA with a .384 ISO against left-handed hitters this season.
Not A Lot Of Value Options
I like the White Sox a ton tonight, and I like to target them when facing a pitcher with a low strikeout rate. Josh Tomlin has a 13.5% strikeout rate with a 5.54 xFIP and a 39.3% hard-hit rate on the season. Nicky Delmonico is really cheap tonight, and he’s going to help make everything work with Max Scherzer. Delmonico’s power numbers are up and his CXwOBA is up to .412 over the last 30 days. His biggest issue is strikeouts, and Tomlin should help with that issue in this matchup.
Low Owned SP2
I try to stay away from the Tampa pitching situation, but on a slate with a chalk cheap pitcher, I’m willing to go to the Tampa guys. Chirinos is supposed to be the long man tonight, and he’s cheap enough to take a shot on in this matchup. He pitched against the Blue Jays in Toronto on September 3rd and threw seven innings with one earned run and five strikeouts. He has allowed more than three earned runs in five straight appearances. He’s a high usage slider pitcher, and that should help him against the Blue Jays tonight.
Stacking the Sox (Not the Red Ones)
The White Sox are playing on the road (guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats), they are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, and they draw an exploitable matchup against Josh Tomlin. This sets up very well for a Chicago stack, even though the Indians do have a very good bullpen. Tomlin has allowed a .465 xwOBA to lefties and a .381 xwOBA to righties this season. The White Sox biggest weakness has been their high k-rate, but that’s negated in this matchup. Yoan Moncada, Daniel Palka, Avisail Garcia, and Omar Narvaez are all elite plays at their respective positions.
The SP1 Decision is Easy Tonight
Max Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in baseball. In 31 starts this season, Scherzer owns a 2.76 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 34% and a soft contact rate of 24%. So basically, if you are lucky enough to make contact against Scherzer, it’s likely going to be soft or medium contact. The Mets have some good lefties in their lineup, but they will be no match for Scherzer. He’s the top pitcher of the slate and it’s not even close.
Good Value in the Outfield
The Blue Jays will start the game against Ryne Stanek and then square off against Yonny Chirinos. They are both talented righties, so the matchup isn’t exactly what I would call exploitable. If we are playing anyone from Toronto, we are banking on their talent and their value. Billy McKinney stands out as a great value play on both FanDuel ($2,700) and DraftKings ($3,500). He owns a .364 xwOBA and a .194 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Do What You Have To Do
There are not many options for SP2 tonight after you pay up for Max Scherzer, if you want to leave yourself any room for bats. Everything above the $7k/$14k range on DK/FDRFT is basically off the table tonight unless we get a lot of unexpected value bats. In the lower range, I’ll side with the guy going into Miami who is coming off a game where he struck out 10 Cubs in five innings. That was certainly an outlier start, but showed that there is some upside here. Even his league average skills of 23.1% K, 8.8% BB, 4.32 ERA and 3.68 SIERA, would be worth this salary on this slate with the favorable matchup in a good park. I wouldn’t go all-in on someone like this in tournaments, but he’ll be my highest exposure SP2 in all formats.
Can't Pass On This Salary
The Yankees broke out last night against a good lefty, and they face another lefty with some strikeout ability tonight, but less talented overall then the one they got to yesterday. Eduardo Rodriguez is just above average with a 23.7% strikeout rate to right-handed batters. There’s also the issue of his pitch count in just his third start off the DL, and the Red Sox having no need to push him as they prepare for the playoffs. Hicks is too cheap for his middle of the order lineup spot and .258 ISO against lefties, and he also has the switch hitting edge when Boston dips into the bullpen.
Keep On Playing Him
I never would’ve imagined that we’d reach a point in time when Ji-Man Choi would be a Core Play even once, let alone three times in the same week, but that is the world we live in now. There’s really no arguing with what he’s done. For the season, we’re looking at a .266 ISO and .392 wOBA on 46% hard hits against righties and he’s closing out strong with a homer every 10 AB in the month of September. The Blue Jays Sam Gaviglio has wide splits with his strikeouts down to 15.4% against lefties, while allowing a .211 ISO on 38% hard hits.
A Value At A Packed Position
First base is a loaded position tonight, and with some good options up top, Ryan Zimmerman may go a bit overlooked despite his great price tag. This looks like a good night to grab two first baseman on FD, adding Zimmerman to your Encarnacion/Freeman/Choi lineups. The Mets Jason Vargas is as average as average gets, with no plus skill to get past top right-handed batters. Because Zimmerman missed time this season and bats towards the bottom of the lineup, it’s gone overlooked that his skills have remained absolutely elite against left-handed pitching. He has followed up his breakout 2017 season with a .294 ISO, .468 wOBA and 45% hard hits in limited at bats this season against lefties.
Find Some Cheap Power
The Indians are the top projected offense of the night, but don’t forget the other side of this game with the most home run prone pitcher in all of baseball in Josh Tomlin. Tomlin has allowed an absurd 3.47 HR/9 this season, throwing tons of hittable strikes, with a low 13.2% K rate to lefties, with 42% fly balls and 40% hard hits leading to a .384 ISO against. On FD, Daniel Palka is way too cheap for his power upside, with a team leading .289 ISO against righties this season. His only issue is that he strikes out too much, but with Tomlin being one of the lowest K pitchers in the league, the power upside outweighs the strikeout downside.
Find Some Cheap Power
The Indians are the top projected offense of the night, but don’t forget the other side of this game with the most home run prone pitcher in all of baseball in Josh Tomlin. Tomlin has allowed an absurd 3.47 HR/9 this season, throwing tons of hittable strikes, with a low 13.2% K rate to lefties, with 42% fly balls and 40% hard hits leading to a .384 ISO against. On DK/FDRFT, Nicky Delmonico is dirt cheap with power upside, having posted a .238 ISO in the second half of this season. His downfall has been strikeouts, but that’s just not much of a concern against Tomlin.
Don't Overthink It
I was hoping I would get to use my favorite phrase one last time this season, and this is the spot for it. ‘Don’t Overthink It’. Max Scherzer is so far ahead of every other pitcher on this slate, it is getting way too cute to try and find a reason to fade him. The reason would be that he had his worst start of the season in his last outing, but that just means he’s gotten it out of the way. He is not showing any signs of slowing down, and even in that bad start, he still had six strikeouts in four innings. He has six double digit strikeout games in his last 10 and a 34.2% K rate on the season that is a full 8% ahead of the next closest pitcher on this slate.
Sneaky Upside on the Mound
Matt Boyd has been better this year, but he still goes through fits of inconsistency. However, he has been very solid over his last two starts against good teams (CLE and STL), and perhaps he is starting to find a groove late in the season. The strikeouts have ticked higher of late, and he draws a fine matchup tonight against a young, impatient Royals team. The current version of the Royals is not the low strikeout, high contact team that we are used to, but many DFS players still think of them in that capacity. This is a great spot to get Boyd at low ownership, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him be the top pitching performer outside of Scherzer this evening.
