DFS Alerts
Above Average Pitcher
Opposite Wei-Yin Chen is Luis Castillo who will travel to Miami to take on a Marlins team that has one of the lowest implied run totals on the board (3.5). Castillo isn’t particularly ‘cheap’ but can still easily be pitched as SP2 on DraftKings if rolling out Zack Greinke as your SP1. Despite a 4.52 ERA on the year, Castillo has a strong skill-set and has one of the highest swinging strike-rates of the slate (13.7%). Castillo’s 3.84 SIERA and strong swing-and-miss ability paints a picture of an above average pitcher who has been a bit unlucky this season. The Marlins aren’t the best strikeout matchup on the slate but there is still some upside here based on Castillo’s skill-set alone.
Home Sweet Home
I’m of the opinion that Home/Road splits aren’t useful in predicting future performance but Chen’s splits are so wide this season that they are worthy of pointing out. Chen has been a monster at home holding opposing hitters to a .238 wOBA and striking them out 23.4% of the time. Conversely, Chen has struggled on the road with a .421 wOBA and suppressed strikeout rate of 14.8%. Even if you don’t place any value in Chen’s home splits, he still is a fine value option against the Reds.
Sneaky strong spot for right-handed power hitter
The Phillies have just a 3.85 implied run line in Atlanta, but is Kevin Gausman really that good? He’s allowed eight runs over his last 10.1 innings with a 4.37 xFIP since being traded. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 xwOBA against him. Against a pitcher who’s generally struggled with RHBs throughout his career, Rhys Hoskins (142 wRC+, .290 ISO vs RHP this season) seems an ideal play. He homered off Syndergaard last night. Hoskins is the only RHB in the top half of this lineup, though Asdrubal Cabrera (125 wRC+, .236 ISO) and Carlos Santana (108 wRC+, .181 ISO) can do some damage in this spot as well.
Other tagged players: Kevin Gausman, Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana
Rookies Are Too Cheap
FanDuel is not aggressive with pricing rookies, and this is a time to take advantage with Victor Robles leading off against Jason Vargas for just $2,200. Robles is a top of the line prospect with strong contact skills and a lot of speed. He has a good matchup against the average skills of Vargas and has plenty of run scoring upside with all the big bats behind him. This type of salary is what we need to get access to Max Scherzer tonight.
Quality pitcher, but with platoon issues
Vince Velasquez is one of the better pitchers on the board, but he has exhibited a significant platoon issue this season and as such, the Braves have a 4.65 implied run line that’s fourth best on the board tonight. For Ronald Acuna (144 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP) it matters not which arm the pitcher throws with, but Velasquez’s .366 wOBA against LHBs boosts Freddie Freeman (132 wRC+, .183 ISO), Ender Inciarte (97 wRC+, .138 ISO) and Nick Markakis (120 wRC+, .153 ISO), all in the top half of the lineup.
Other tagged players: Ronald Acuna, Vince Velasquez, Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis Cold offense in negative run environment expected to prevail over rookie arm
Jeff Brigham has thrown fewer than 100 innings above A ball still with a 16.2 K-BB% in 52 AAA innings this season. He’s walked five with four strikeouts in 7.1 major league innings. That’s not enough information to make much of, but the Reds are implied for four and a half runs in an extremely negative run environment and their team 53 wRC+ over the last week. Exposure to some of their stronger bats in the top half of the order is certainly reasonable, but what’s happened to Joey Votto’s power this year (147 wRC+, .151 ISO vs RHP)? Scott Schebler (114 wRC+, .214 ISO) and Eugenio Suarez (121 wRC+, .229 ISO) may be useful bats here as well.
Other tagged players: Eugenio Suarez, Jeff Brigham, Scott Schebler Quality pitcher, but lineup too deep
The Yankees are the number three offense on the board at 4.74 implied runs. Eduardo Rodriguez has actually handled RHBs well (.292 wOBA, 25.6 Hard%), but this is a beast of a lineup at full health in a dangerous park. The Boston bullpen has been struggling as well with a 4.89 FIP over the last month. Ironically, the Yankees have two guys above a 140 wRC+ and .300 ISO vs LHP this year batting eighth and ninth, but the top of the order is pretty strong too: Andrew McCutchen (126 wRC+, .199 ISO), Aaron Judge (154 wRC+, .263 ISO) and Giancarlo Stanton (173 wRC+, .324 ISO)
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Andrew McCutchen, Eduardo Rodriguez The Game To Load Up On
I was hoping we’d get Nicky Delmonico back in the lineup for some cheap access to the White Sox lineup, but without that savings, I’ll look to the top of the order with a fairly priced Yoan Moncada as the easiest way to get in play against Josh Tomlin. Tomlin has an absurd 3.47 HR/9 this season, with a terribly low 13.2% K rate to lefties while allowing a .384 ISO on 42% fly balls and 40% hard hits. Moncada has plenty of power, and his main flaw is the strikeouts, which are far less of an issue against a pitcher like Tomlin.
Pitching better since break, but offense still holds the edge
Though well below the Indians, the Nationals (5.23) are still one of just two teams above five implied runs tonight. Jason Vargas has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts, but still has a 6.47 ERA and 4.48 FIP on the season. While RHBs have a .382 wOBA against him this season, Statcast flips the switch and puts LHBs (.372 xwOBA) 31 points above RHBs. He’s kept the ball on the ground 40% of the time against batters from either side of the plate. Considering the run projection, Victor Robles has to be strongly considered from the leadoff spot, especially for just $2.2K on FanDuel. He’s had few opportunities so far, but does have a 136 wRC+ over the last seven days. Anthony Rendon (135 wRC+, .263 ISO vs LHP this season) and Ryan Zimmerman (199 wRC+, .299 ISO) have mashed southpaws, while Bryce Harper (131 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Juan Soto (145 wRC+, .232 ISO have hit same-handed pitching very well.
Other tagged players: Victor Robles, Jason Vargas, Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto Red hot offense (146 wRC+ last seven days) makes next stop in Toronto
The red hot Rays (team 146 wRC+ last seven days) make their next stop in Toronto tonight, where they’ll be met by Sam Gaviglio, who’s been smoked by LHBs this year (.365 wOBA, 38 Hard%). Tampa Bay will attack him with seven from that side, led by Ji-Man Choi (149 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP this year). Brandon Lowe (129 wRC+, .215 ISO) has flashed some power as well. Joey Wendle (116 wRC+, .135 ISO) and Mallex Smith (117 wRC+, .119 ISO) are above average bats from that side as well.
Other tagged players: Joey Wendle, Brandon Lowe, Mallex Smith, Sam Gaviglio Slugging DH gains value against reverse split pitcher this season
Cleveland has the highest implied run line on the board (5.85) with only one other team above five runs. It was a similar situation last night and they didn’t score their first run until the ninth inning. Tonight, they’ll face James Shields, who has a major reverse split by wOBA (.351 vs .294), but Statcast has batters from either side of the plate within seven points of a .360 xwOBA. His ground ball rate is well below 40% either way. As always, Jose Ramirez (167 wRC+, .327 ISO vs RHP this season) and Francisco Lindor (120 wRC+, .251 ISO) are the elite bats, along with Michael Brantley (135 wRC+, .187 ISO). Edwin Encarnacion (116 wRC+, .249 ISO) gains value in this spot. This is an expensive lineup, but stackable at least through the first half, along with Jason Kipnis (94 wRC+, .163 ISO) if funds are available to do so.
Other tagged players: Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, James Shields Left-handed batters have torched this normally reverse split pitcher
Generally a pitcher with a reverse platoon split, Josh Tomlin has still allowed a .346 wOBA to RHBs with an xwOBA 35 points higher, but LHBs are above a .460 xwOBA and xwOBA. We can’t exactly call it a small sample anymore either at 59.2 innings. The White Sox are just in the middle of the board at 4.15 implied runs, but players have to seriously look at all four LHBs in their lineup, all above average hitters against RHP this year: Yoan Moncada (105 wRC+, .189 ISO), Yolmer Sanchez (104 wRC+, .159 ISO), Daniel Palka (125 wRC+, .289 ISO) and Omar Narvaez (133 wRC+, .172 ISO).
Other tagged players: Yolmer Sanchez, Daniel Palka, Omar Narvaez, Josh Tomlin Daily Bullpen Alert: Several bottom 10 bullpens in action tonight
Six major league bullpens exceed a five FIP over the last month. Two of them appear on a seven game slate on Thursday night. The Marlins (5.33 FIP, 10.1 K-BB%) are the worst of the three. They start rookie Jeff Brigham, who has totaled 7.1 innings in his two starts, but he faces an ice cold offense (53 wRC+ last seven days) in an extremely negative run environment. The Nationals (5.15 FIP, 11.5 K-BB%) face a perfectly average Mets’ offense in a somewhat neutral park, but attacking this bullpen means attacking Max Scherzer, who has allowed at least three ERs in four straight starts. The Red Sox (4.89 FIP, 12.3 K-BB%), Royals (4.86 FIP, 7.7 K-BB%), Reds (4.84 FIP, 11.6 K%, and Tigers (4.41 FIP, 8.1 K-BB%) are all in action tonight. That’s Eduardo Rodriguez at Yankee Stadium, Jorge Lopez at Detroit, Cody Reed at Miami and Matt Boyd against the Royals. Not a particularly attractive matchup in the lot of them, aside from the Yankees maybe.
A bounce back for a Cy Young hopeful?
On a seven game Thursday night slate, we find Max Scherzer and Masahiro Tanaka as the two pitchers above a $10K price tag. Scherzer (34.2 K%, 2.75 SIERA, .261 xwOBA) struggled in Atlanta last time out and has now allowed at least three runs in four straight with fewer than seven strikeouts twice. He’s also gone at least seven innings with double digit strikeouts in two of those starts. The Mets are about a league average offense both on the road and vs RHP (21.8 K%). Tanaka (25.6 K%, 3.46 SIERA, .311 xwOBA) has struck out 18 of his last 51 and allowed one run or less in four of five starts, but may be a bit over-priced against the Red Sox (113 wRC+, 19 K% vs RHP). If paying up for Scherzer, players may be considering Cody Reed (23.1 K%, 3.68 SIERA, .274 xwOBA) in Miami (81 wRC+ vs LHP) as their low cost DK compliment. Vince Velasquez (26.3 K%, 3.92 SIERA, .304 xwOBA) is a moderately priced option against an Atlanta offense with just a 94 wRC+ at home and vs RHP, but low strikeout upside (20.4% vs RHP). Matt Boyd (22.9 K%, 4.24 SIERA, .296 xwOBA) faces a Kansas City offense with a higher strikeout rate vs LHP (23.9% with a 78 wRC+).
Other tagged players: Masahiro Tanaka, Cody Reed, Vince Velasquez, Matthew Boyd Flying Under the Radar
Boyd’s been a pitcher that I’ve had my eye on for most of the season. Anytime he has a decent matchup, I will fire him up in tournaments. He has an above-average strikeout rate (23%) and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA this season. Tonight he’s pitching at home against the Royals, whose projected lineup has a 23% strikeout rate against southpaws. There is a lot to like here and his hefty salary should help keep ownership down.
