DFS Alerts

A Top Team Stack

The Nationals are my favorite offense to target tonight, as I worry somewhat about the motivation level for the Indians right now. They draw a fine matchup against a mediocre lefty in Jason Vargas, and I expect a potential outburst here. If choosing my favorite hitter on the team, this is a close call, but I’ll opt for Rendon mainly because I don’t like a lot of other third base options tonight. He has solid skills against left-handed pitching and a 46% hard contact rate to go along with his .376 wOBA and .263 ISO against southpaws. Fire up your Washington stacks in GPP formats, and don’t be afraid to use some lefties even in a matchup against a LHP. Harper is an elite target, Turner has value at a similarly thin SS position, and I don’t mind Robles for some value.

A Nice Risk/Reward Stack with HR Upside

There’s no doubt that it has been a down year for the White Sox. They haven’t been able to hit, pitch, catch, or really do anything right all year long. However, they do have some guys with boom-or-bust power upside, and they draw a fine matchup tonight against a fly ball pitcher that often struggles with the long ball in Josh Tomlin. The Indians are coasting to the finish line now that they have clinched the division, and I am more than happy to fire up some stacks of the White Sox power bats here, with Garcia, Moncada, and Palka leading the way. Palka is particularly cheap on FD, if you are playing over there.

Elite Upside at Low Ownership

Vince Velasquez has pitched five innings or fewer in SEVEN consecutive starts. His ERA in three September outings is north of 9.00. Why are people still treating him as a viable fantasy option? He was 40% owned on DraftKings in his last start and pitched two innings. This confounds me. We can try to leverage this by taking a batter or two against him, as well. I wouldn’t necessarily advocate for a full Atlanta stack tonight, though I don’t think it’s totally nuts. My first choice would be Freeman as a one-off play, as he is the best all around hitter on the Atlanta team and was absolutely locked in with his at-bats yesterday. He’s a fantastic tournament play again tonight.

Just. Play. Him.

Find someone else who you can argue for as the top pitcher tonight. Go ahead, try and do it. This is the perfect example of a spot where you don’t want to get cute. The top pitchers besides Scherzer are Tanaka and Rodriguez, who are facing off against each other and have to face difficult offenses. Scherzer dwarfs the other pitchers on this slate in terms of upside, and he gets a better matchup against the Mets. Just play the man tonight.

No weather issues on Wednesday night

Kevin’s updated forecast is lacking any concern on Wednesday. Players can read the full report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can join Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET for further updates.

Confirmed lineup shoots this pitcher to the top of the board

Cole Hamels may have just shot to the top of the board tonight with the lineup the Diamondbacks have released. They’re sitting just about any regular you’ve ever heard of. Ketel Marte (142 wRC+, .241 ISO) is really the only potent bat against LHP in this lineup. He’s batting third.

Hard hitting lineup in a power friendly park against a pitcher with large platoon splits

Following up on striking out 10 Padres, Matt Harvey shut out the struggling Cubs for six innings in his last outing. He has another tough task in Milwaukee, as the Brewers are the lowest of just three teams above five implied runs tonight (5.07). Harvey still struggles with LHBs (.345 wOBA, 42 Hard%) and that makes this a very dangerous matchup with Curtis Granderson (127 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP this year), Christian Yelich (158 wRC+, .268 ISO) and Travis Shaw (134 wRC+, .289 ISO) all in the top half of this lineup. Each has a hard hit rate above 45% over the last week. In fact, each of the first six batters in the Milwaukee lineup are above a 37 Hard% vs RHP this year.

Great since the break, but incredibly difficult assignment tonight

David Price has been great. He’s gone at least six innings with two runs or less in eight of his last nine starts since the break and has a 22.9 K-BB% over that span. He’s even held RHBs to a .288 wOBA this season. However, the xwOBA is a bit higher (.336) with just a 39.1 GB%, while he’s struggled against the Yankees as he traditionally has. The caveat being that his best start has come against them since the break (6 IP – 2 ER – 3 BB – 5 K). This is a dangerous, almost entirely right-handed lineup though. Andrew McCutchen (125 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP this year), Aaron Judge (161 wRC+, .271 ISO) and Giancarlo Stanton (178 wRC+, .331 ISO) would all still seem to have some value here should ownership projections suggest they’ll be lightly owned in this spot.

Value in a weak lineup against a pitcher that gets smashed by same-handed batters (.400 wOBA)

Marco Estrada is an extreme fly ball pitcher (23%) with a park downgrade in Baltimore and RHBs have an astounding .400 wOBA against him. That’s how you get the Orioles to 4.51 implied runs. It’s a problem that the only batter in the lineup above a .200 ISO vs RHP is batting ninth. The only other batter above even a .160 ISO vs RHP is Trey Mancini (101 wRC+, .198 ISO). He’s also the only batter in the lineup above a 100 wRC+ or 27 Hard% over the last week (170 wRC+, 37.5 Hard%). Adam Jones (106 wRC+, .155 ISO) seems viable as well with Joey Rickard (84 wRC+, .145 ISO) costing just $3.2K on DK and batting second.

Elite LHBs in a great matchup in a great park

The Tribe owns the top implied run line on the board (5.58) with only two other teams above five. They have a matchup at home with Dylan Covey, who has allowed LHBs a .350 wOBA and 37.9 Hard%. Control can be an issue with him as well, but he’s at least kept RHBs on the ground with 61.7% of batted balls. The top third of this order projects extremely well, as usual at home: Francisco Lindor (121 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP), Michael Brantley (137 wRC+, .188 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (166 wRC+, .328 ISO). Yonder Alonso (103 wRC+, .199 ISO) drops in the lineup to sixth, but still seems like a reasonable bet here. He has a lineup topping 276 wRC+ in 12 PAs over the last week.

Welington Castillo scratched Wednesday; Omar Narváez replaces

Castillo has been scratched from the Chicago White Sox original confirmed lineup and will not start in Wednesday’s matchup against the Cleveland Indians due to a presently unspecified reason, though a simple managerial lineup change appears to be the likeliest scenario. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Omar Narvaez, who will handle the designated hitter duties and slot directly into Castillo’s vacated fifth spot in the order, which does bestow the catching responsibilities upon Kevan Smith defensively. However, the remainder of the White Sox lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Carlos Carrasco on the road this evening.

Reverse split gives us a nice value play at Catcher

Heath Fillmyer has really struggled with same-handed batters (.362 wOBA, 49.5 Hard%) in his short major league tenure. Though they don’t have much power, the Pirates do have two RHBs who hit RHP well: Starling Marte (115 wRC+, .174 ISO) and Francisco Cervelli (128 wRC+, .178 ISO). The latter would seem a nice value at a tough position for less than $4K on either site with the Pirates projected at a formidable 4.51 implied runs by oddsmakers. While Fillmyer has been much better against LHBs (.290 wOBA), xwOBA raises that mark 46 points. An affordable Pittsburgh stack is not out of the question.

Best Offense Available Tonight

The Indians should be considered one of the top stacks of the slate. It’s honestly hard to make an argument against them other than the fact that they are expensive. As mentioned above, this is a fly-ball hitting offense that will be able to negate the high ground ball rate of Dylan Covey. On the season, he has allowed a .372 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Francisco Lindor brings elite stolen base upside to the table and he owns a .253 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Lock and Load Ace

There were concerns about the Indians pulling Corey Kluber early last night, but they kept him out there much longer than I expected. He pitched eight innings and threw well over 100 pitches. This bodes well for Carrasco, who should get the same treatment. As I said yesterday, I think we’ll have to worry about limiting innings starting next week. Carrasco has been terrific this season, posting a 3.05 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29% and a walk rate of 5%. He draws one of the best matchups on the schedule and is by far my favorite pitcher of the slate. The White Sox projected lineup has an average k-rate of 28% against right-handed pitching.

Six bullpens remain above a five FIP over the last month. As luck would have it (bad luck for DFS players), five of them are off the board with just 10 teams missing from the slate tonight. That does leave us with the bullpen that is back at the bottom of the board in Baltimore though (5.42 FIP, 9.3 K-BB%). Jimmy Yacabonis (can’t be his real name) gets his fifth start and has not exceeded five innings in any major league outing this year. Unfortunately, most of the bullpen days and smaller workload pitchers are off the slate as well. We’re left with just the Mariners working out of the bullpen today in Houston. This pen has been up and down, but has been up over the last rolling 30 day period (3.44 FIP, 17.8 K-BB%) with the guess that they’ll attempt to stay away from LHPs against the Astros. While Brett Anderson and Robbie Erlin have additionally averaged fewer than five innings per start, both have excellent pens and neither are in very attackable spots at home against the Angels and Padres respectively.