DFS Alerts
Perfect Batted Ball Profile
The Orioles rolled out one of the worst lineups I had ever seen last night against Aaron Sanchez and he still ended up with a poor start. It’s safe to say that we can avoid him moving forward unless he is facing the Red Sox. The Orioles haven’t had a ton of success against Marco Estrada in the past, but this is the worst form that he’s been in over the last few seasons. He has allowed a .385 xwOBA and a 2.26 HR/9 to right-handed hitters. Trey Mancini is one of my favorite plays of the slate. He has reverse-splits himself and his high ground ball rate should help in a matchup against a high fly-ball pitcher.
Regression potential could lead to some mound value tonight
Wednesday night is a slate with some pitching value far beyond the most expensive arms. Robbie Erlin (20.5 K%, 3.46 SIERA, .306 xwOBA) is your potential DK punt play in an SP2 spot against the Giants (76 wRC+ on the road, 80 wRC+ vs LHP) for near the minimum. Tyler Anderson has a 23.3 K%, 3.70 SIERA and .319 xwOBA over the last month with a massive park bump for just $6.4K on FanDuel. What’s the problem? He has to face the Dodgers (144 wRC+ last seven days) and has an actual 7.71 ERA for some reason over the last 30 days. Chris Archer (24.6 K%, 3.82 SIERA) is inconsistent, but gets to race the Royals (81 wRC+ on the road, 93 wRC+ vs RHP) at a reasonable price (< $8K) in Pittsburgh. Dallas Keuchel does not miss bats, but gets lots of weak ground balls (53.9 GB%), pitches in a great park and has failed to complete six innings just four times since May. The Mariners will not help his strikeout rate any though (20.3% vs LHP). Luis Severino is less than $10K in a tough matchup (Red Sox 114 wRC+, 19 K% vs RHP) in tough park, but there may be some value there if you believe in regression. He has a 31.3 K% and 2.66 SIERA over the last month. Then of course, there’s the incredibly unpredictable Cole Hamels, Robbie Ray matchup in Arizona. Hamels has begun to falter over his last two starts with two HRs allowed last time out and five walks the time before. Ray has the highest strikeout rate on the board (30.9%), but also tops the board with a 40.2% 95+ mph EV and a 12.8% walk rate. Hamels could pitch a complete game and Ray strike out ten, but it’s a pretty massive range of potential outcomes with these two.
Other tagged players: Tyler Anderson, Robbie Erlin, Chris Archer, Cole Hamels, Robbie Ray, Dallas Keuchel
SP2 with Upside
Chris Archer is a lot like Jon Gray in that their advanced numbers are solid, but they can’t beat the BABIP monster. A 3.82 SIERA and a 25% strikeout rate is enticing, but that’s accompanied by a 4.66 ERA and a 41% hard contact rate. At this point, I’d only like to target Archer in tournaments. However, there aren’t many value pitchers that stand out as good plays tonight. Archer draws a decent matchup tonight against the Royals. While their offense has been firing on all cylinders recently, they lose the use of the DH in this series and their projected lineup has an average k-rate of 24% against right-handed pitching.
Great matchups for two of the three high priced arms tonight
Carlos Carrasco is the only double digit price tag on both sites on a 10 game slate tonight. He struck out just five in his last start against the Rays, but 34 over his previous three and is second on the board with a 28.8 K% overall (the guy with the higher strikeout rate who costs much less is Robbie Ray). The strikeouts have afforded Carrasco a .291 xwOBA despite an 89.1 mph aEV. Despite a difficult home park, he gets a significant matchup boost from the White Sox (18.7 K-BB%), who will also be without Jose Abreu again. Walker Buehler and David Price cost more than $10K on DraftKings only. Buehler is actually the most expensive pitcher on DK and looks to be a guy the Dodgers are letting pitch deep into games Interestingly, he’s gone above 100 pitches in every other start over his last nine. If that’s by design, it would mean a shorter start tonight, but they’re in a fight for the division and looking to put some distance between them and the Rockies (79 wRC+ on the road and vs RHP). Buehler has a 31.9 K% over the last month and more impressive is his jump in SwStr rate (13.2%) to support it. Price may be the most difficult roster of the three. It’s not a performance thing. He’s gone at least six innings with two runs or less in eight of his last nine starts since the break and has a 22.9 K-BB% over that span. He’s at Yankee Stadium (Yankees 120 wRC+ at home, 111 wRC+ vs LHP). The home team got Aaron Judge back last night, but if there is one source of optimism on Price, Kevin’s forecast suggests the wind will be blowing in around 10 mph from left.
Other tagged players: Walker Buehler, David Price Sneaky Spot For This Team
I think Cole Hamels has pitched well this season, and he’s trending in the right direction since joining the Cubs. With that said, it’s hard to ignore the price for Steven Souza tonight. Hamels still has a .330 wOBA with a .189 ISO and a massive 44% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters this season, while Souza has a .190 ISO with a .537 CXwOBA against lefties. All eight projected starters for the Diamondbacks have hard-hit rates over 38% against lefties this season, and Souza leads the team with a 61.8% hard-hit rate.
Stats That Might Change Your Mind
Marwin Gonzalez has not had the best season, but he’s been hitting a lot better as of late. He’s hit safe in five straight games, and two of those games were multi-hit games. Over the last 30 days, his hard-hit rate is up 9.2% and his CXwOBA is up from .377 to .517. His ISO, air distance, and hit distance are all up in the last 30 days as well. We don’t have a ton of value on DraftKings tonight, so I’m just going to keep playing him over there every day until he’s over $4K.
The Game To Hunt For Power
Matt Harvey continues his somewhat-resurgence of decent real life pitching, but this is not a good spot for a guy who struggles with left-handed power. Harvey comes in with a .228 ISO allowed to lefties on the back of a 43% fly ball rate and 40% hard hits with below average strikeouts. The Brewers have four lefties with hard hit rates above 40%, contact rates above 75% and ISO’s above .200. Christian Yelich is the prime target if you have the salary, but it’s tough to get there tonight, so I’ll start with Mike Moustakas at his reasonable $3,500 tag on FD and his .239 ISO against righties.
It's All About The Slider
It’s been an up and down season for Chris Archer, but he’s too cheap for this matchup tonight. While O’Hearn and Perez continue to show power and Mondesi is extremely hot, I’m still not afraid to pick on the Royals. On top of that, it’s a great pitcher’s ballpark, and like I mentioned above, he’s simply too cheap. Archer throws his fastball and slider around 43% each, and while the slider hasn’t been as effective this season, the Royals are one of the worst teams in baseball against sliders. Bonifacio is the only projected starter with a wOBA over .300 against sliders since the start of the 2016 season.
Makes It Come Together
We have some high dollar offenses to pay up for tonight, and that’s one of the things that I like about Robbie Erlin. With his price tag, you’re able to fit in a quality SP1 and still get plenty of bats into your lineup. He’s projected to face seven right-handed hitters tonight, and the projected starting lineup for the Giants has a .166 ISO with a .297 wOBA and a 23.1% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. Robbie Erlin has a .301 wOBA with a .136 ISO against right-handed hitters this season, and while he doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters, he should pitch well enough to pay off his price tag in this matchup.
Salary + Skills
With Jose Ramirez at full salary and Travis Shaw banged up from a hit by pitch, I’ll be looking at second base as a place to save a few dollars tonight. The Angels’ Felix Pena has been pretty solid recently, but there’s a stark difference in his splits, with 27.1% K to righties and just 16.9% K to lefties. In addition to the below average strikeouts, he hasn’t shown any ability to limit hard contact to lefties or to induce ground balls. Jed Lowrie hits in the middle of a strong lineup with strong plate skills leading to a .365 OBP and .366 wOBA against righties with plenty of power from his 43% hard hit rate. He’s a little better in cash games or Oakland stacks, but is viable even on his own in tournaments at this salary with his extra base hit ability.
Someone Has To Fly
It doesn’t get much less exciting in real life than a Blue Jays-Orioles series, but this is a DFS relevant game with two bad starters and two bad bullpens in a hitters park. Over the long term, Marco Estrada has been a good pitcher, but he looks completely different and way off his game in the second half. There have been rumors of a sore back, or maybe he’s just old and tired, but whatever it is, a 13.3% K rate and 11.3% BB with a 7.89 ERA since the All-Star Break tells the story. Even at full strength, he’s a fly baller with home run risk, and Trey Mancini (.195 ISO, 38% HH) is the Baltimore bat most likely to be able to take advantage.
Spot for a Breakout?
The Brewers have been scuffling a bit at the plate of late, but this could be a potential breakout spot against Matt Harvey. He has struggled a lot against left-handed batters over the course of the last few seasons, and he has allowed a hefty 42% hard contact rate to them this season. Yelich, Shaw, and Moustakas are all dangerous left-handed bats with solid ISO marks against right-handed pitching, and this is a great spot for them against Harvey. Fire up your GPP stack here, and maybe even throw in a power RHB or two in the mix.
Other tagged players: Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas
A Low-Owned Risk/Reward Stack
Are you considering the Pirates as a top GPP stack tonight? It’s not a crazy idea. Heath Fillmyer has no strikeout ability, a 10% walk rate, and a 40% hard contact rate allowed. He’s shown some signs of reverse splits, too, which makes Starling Marte and Francisco Cervelli interesting options here. From there, you can fill out a stack with the likes of Adam Frazier, assuming he grabs the leadoff spot, or a value play like Colin Moran. With all their injuries, there might be some other potential value in this lineup, too. Keep an eye on this lineup when it gets released.
Other tagged players: Adam Frazier, Francisco Cervelli, Colin Moran A Hit-or-Miss Offense with a Great Matchup
The Blue Jays are certainly not the most reliable offensive unit to target on a daily basis. However, they draw a fine matchup tonight against Yacabonis and the Orioles. Baltimore’s starter had mediocre numbers in the minors this year and has shown next to nothing for a skill set in the major leagues. There’s some nice mid-range value in this Toronto lineup, and Yacabonis has allowed a .422 wOBA to LHBs in his brief major league service time this year. Morales and McKinney are fine options, while I will also add in Lourdes Gurriel as a RHB at the top of the order. I like anyone from 1-5 in this order as part of a GPP stack tonight.
Other tagged players: Kendrys Morales, Lourdes Gurriel The Place To Spend
If I’m going to spend all the way up to a top bat tonight, the Indians lead the way with their infield duo of Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez against Dylan Covey. Covey is not a good pitcher against lefties, and when the Indians pile on and get into the bullpen, both Lindor and Ramirez have the switch hitting edge to look forward to. The closest thing to a skill for Covey against lefties is 49% ground balls, but Lindor has no concern there with his 40% fly ball rate and 41% hard hits leading to a .253 ISO. The shortstop eligibility of Lindor gives him the slight edge over Ramirez, but get them both if you can.