DFS Alerts
An Under-Rated SP #2 Option
Felix Pena has quietly been pitching very well for the Angels of late, posting a 1.35 ERA with a 12/1 K/BB ratio over his first three starts in the month of September. He was very efficient in his last outing, needing just 77 pitches to get through six scoreless frames in an easy win. The Angels are looking to win three in a row in this series, and while a matchup against the A’s is generally not one we want to use to target pitchers, the combination of a reasonable price and solid form is enough to put Pena on the GPP radar on this slate.
The Top Arm in a Big Game
The Dodgers are on the verge of sweeping the Rockies in a huge three game series, and they have arguably their top pitcher on the mound to do it with Walker Buehler. It may seem strange to think of him as the ace for this team, but he has been absolutely incredible of late with a 1.81 ERA and 60 strikeouts over 49 2/3 innings since the first of August. He has been allowed to top 100 pitches in four of his starts in that span, and Dave Roberts has no excuse to give him an early look in such a pivotal game. Even though the price tag is high, Buehler has proven to be an elite option. Treat him as such on this Wednesday slate.
Two Aces, Pricing Makes The Call
There are several good pitchers going tonight, but it’s a two-man show up top with Carlos Carrasco and Walker Buehler. The skills are remarkably close between the two over any time period you break it down to. The pitch count that used to be an issue for Buehler has been a non-issue recently, with 100+ pitches in five of his last nine starts, and no reason to limit him now in what amounts to a playoff game for the Dodgers. The Rockies on the road are a different team and below average against righties. I do prefer the strikeout matchup for Carrasco, but the salary gap on FanDuel is far too extreme for the small gap in skills. I’ll lean Carrasco on DK/FDRFT, but on FD, I’ll take the savings on Buehler in all formats.
Two Aces, Take Your Choice
There are several good pitchers going tonight, but it’s a two-man show up top with Carlos Carrasco and Walker Buehler. The skills are remarkably close between the two over any time period you break it down to. Carrasco has an ever-so-slight edge in strikeouts at 28.8% K vs 27.9% for Buehler, and he has the edge in control with 5% walks vs 6.6% walks. Carrasco has been hit a little harder recently, with a few starts where he allowed 5 runs, but the strikeouts and walks have been so steady, that the extreme K rate of the White Sox gives the edge to him tonight over Buehler on DK/FDRFT where their salaries are similar.
Salvador Perez a late scratch Tuesday; Meibrys Viloria announced as replacement during 1st inning
Perez is a late scratch from the Kansas City Royals original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates due to a presently unspecified reason. Unfortunately, this information wasn’t reported until the outset of the first inning, but Perez will be replaced in the lineup by Meibrys Viloria, who will handle the catching duties and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps a majority of the lineup up at least one batting position. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Royals order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Jameson Taillon on the road this evening.
As reported by: Rustin Dodd via Twitter Other tagged players: Meibrys Viloria
No weather concerns for Tuesday's MLB slate
The forecast has been updated for Tuesday night and Kevin has no major concerns. The full report is now available on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can join Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET for more details.
Hard contact is trending up again
There are just three teams above five implied runs tonight, but Houston (4.8) is the next best thing despite possibly the most negative run environment in baseball. Hard contact is trending upward again for Mike Leake, above 40% in three of his last four starts to give him a .387 xwOBA over the last 30 days. The Astros are a lineup populated by RHBs in seven of the first eight spots and that’s not necessarily a favorable aspect for Leake, who has allowed a .342 wOBA to same-handed batters this year with only six points of separation in his xwOBA. Alex Bregman (160 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP this season) has been the breakout offensive star for this team. Tyler White (162 wRC+, .300 ISO) is still the small sample superstar, but that sample is growing and the numbers aren’t really declining. Jose Altuve (146 wRC+, .145 ISO) and George Springer (114 wRC+, .154 ISO) have produced, but without the power they exhibited last year.
Other tagged players: Tyler White, Mike Leake, George Springer, Jose Altuve A wOBA above .400 against RHBs
As they were last night, the Rays are the top projected offense on the board (5.70) and one of just three teams even above five implied runs tonight. Yovani Gallardo is the opponent in Texas. RHBs have a .412 wOBA against him this season and it’s backed by a .393 xwOBA. You could say he’s been much better against LHBs, but even that’s a .332 wOBA that’s boosted to .376 by xwOBA. The point is, Tampa Bay bats look really good up and down the lineup. Ji-Man Choi (147 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP this year), C.J. Cron (109 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Brandon Lowe (128 wRC+, .224 ISO) are the power bats here. Joey Wendle (114 wRC+, .134 ISO) is the affordable leadoff bat. It’s tough to find many spots where players can go wrong against a starter and bullpen that have been pummeled in the most positive run environment on the board.
Other tagged players: C.J. Cron, Brandon Lowe, Joey Wendle, Yovani Gallardo Bullpen day for a struggling staff against a powerful lineup
The Milwaukee Brewers will be facing the Cincinnati bullpen and while there’s a bit of uncertainty aside from Michael Lorenzen starting (who has exceeded 40 pitches just twice since the All-Star break), this is a bullpen that has a 5.04 FIP (10.2 K-BB%) over the last 30 days, facing a powerful lineup in a dangerous park. Each of the first six batters in the lineup are above a 110 wRC+ vs RHP this season with only Lorenzo Cain (111 wRC+, .098 ISO) below a .200 ISO among that group. As such, the Brewers (5.25) are one of just three teams above five implied runs tonight. Christian Yelich (159 wRC+, .271 ISO) is on fire (267 wRC+ last seven days), as is Curtis Granderson (127 wRC+, .207 ISO) with a 247 wRC+ over the last week. Travis Shaw (133 wRC+, .289 ISO) has a 63.6 Hard% over the last seven days as well.
Other tagged players: Lorenzo Cain, Travis Shaw, Curtis Granderson, Michael Lorenzen Peripherals suggest ERA regression
Austin Gomber was punished in his last start against the Dodgers (7 ER, 3 IP). That was a quality offense, but he still has an ERA a run below his non-FIP estimators, due to a 4.3 HR/FB that’s due for at least some regression, while his .358 xwOBA is 37 points above his actual mark so far. In fact, he’s at least 35 points higher by xwOBA than wOBA against batters from either side of the plate. The Braves boast a lineup where each of the first six batters are above a 115 wRC+ vs LHP this year with only Nick Markakis (117 wRC+, .144 ISO) below a .200 ISO. At the very least, a top of the lineup that includes Ronald Acuna (159 wRC+, .283 ISO), Ozzie Albies (143 wRC+, .208 ISO) and Freddie Freeman (148 wRC+, .230 ISO) are all strong plays with an implied run line of 4.59 that’s good for seventh best on the board tonight. Kurt Suzuki (117 wRC+, .220 ISO) is $2.5K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Kurt Suzuki, Austin Gomber Three of four starts without more strikeouts than walks
In one of the most positives run environments in baseball, the Indians are the lowest of three teams above five implied runs (5.04) against the Chicago White Sox and more specifically, Carlos Rodon. The lefty has gone at least six innings in three of his last four starts, but also has failed to strike out more batters than he’s walked in three of his last four as well. Oddly, Rodon has exhibited a bit of a reverse split this season. RHBs have just a .277 wOBA against and though xwOBA brings that up to 31 points, .308 is still a better than average mark. Francisco Lindor (170 wRC+, .214 ISO vs LHP this season) and Jose Ramirez (126 wRC+, .217 ISO) are just too good though, especially with the threat of Rodon’s failing peripherals giving them a better chance to either get on base on drive in runs. While stacking against pitchers with control issues is the more optimal play than one-offs, the Tribe has five batters in the lineup above a 120 wRC+ and .190 ISO vs LHP this season and nobody else above a 90 wRC+ or .130 ISO. Yan Gomes (130 wRC+, .208 ISO) and Melky Cabrera (158 wRC+, .196 ISO) might be the lower priced compliments to the big bats here.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Melky Cabrera, Yan Gomes, Carlos Rodon Daily Bullpen Alert: Seven pens above a five FIP last 30 days
Seven major league bullpens exceed a five FIP over the last month, though with expanded rosters, teams can have so many arms available, that it makes it much tougher to evaluate. The Nationals (5.52 FIP, 11.1 K-BB%) remain worst in the majors, but have Stephen Strasburg on the mound in Miami. The Twins (5.40 FIP, 9.5 K-BB%) have Jake Odorizzi in Detroit, which is not very appealing either. The Marlins (5.38 FIP, 10.7 K-BB%) run rookie Sanday Alcantara up against a difficult Washington lineup, but in a tough park. The Orioles (5.38 FIP, 10.3 K-BB%) start home run prone Dylan Bundy against a depleted Toronto lineup. The Cardinals (5.17 FIP, 4.6 K-BB%) are probably the surprise here. Austin Gomber has an ERA a run below his non-FIP estimators too. They are in Atlanta. The Rangers (5.09 FIP, 11.1 K-BB%) have Yovani Gallardo starting at home. It doesn’t even matter much who the opposing team is, but it’s the Rays. The Reds (5.04 FIP, 10.2 K-BB%) are pitching entirely out of that bullpen today in Milwaukee.
A 24.9 K-BB% at AAA and min-priced on DraftKings
Players are more likely than not spending up for pitching tonight. On DraftKings, that may also necessitate moving to the bottom of the board for an SP2. Josh James is making just his second start and doesn’t have a very appealing matchup (Mariners 20.2 K% vs RHP). However, he pitches in one of the most negative run environments in baseball, had a 24.9 K-BB% in 17 AAA starts, and costs the minimum on DK. Joey Lucchesi is an affordable arm in the $7.5K range, who may be used as a compliment or even on his own against the Giants (80 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB%, 10.5 HR/FB vs LHP). He has a 25.4 K% and 3.78 SIERA with a matching ERA. His workload is a bit erratic though, going over 100 three starts back, but below 90 in three of his last four overall. Anibal Sanchez (24.1 K%, 3.92 SIERA, .291 xwOBA) is in a decent spot against the Cardinals (95 wRC+, 14.0 K-BB% vs RHP) at a reasonable cost around $8K. A bit more expensive are Jameson Taillon (22 K%, 3.84 SIERA, .299 xwOBA) hosting the Royals (93 wRC+, 10.8 HR/FB vs RHP) and Derek Holland (23.8 K%, 4.12 SIERA, .328 xwOBA) in San Diego (89 wRC+, 15.5 K-BB% vs LHP).
Other tagged players: Joey Lucchesi, Anibal Sanchez, Jameson Taillon, Derek Holland Second Highest SwStr%
Tuesday night’s probable starters include Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, Stephen Strasburg, Corey Kluber and Clayton Kershaw. So it may come as a surprise that Dylan Bundy is the pitcher with the second highest swinging strike-rate on the slate (12.5%). Bundy has a better than league average strikeout rate (24.3%) and SIERA (3.97) to pair with that swinging strike-rate and he has arguably the highest point/$ upside on the slate. With so many strong high priced options pitching on Tuesday we may see lower ownership than normal in the mid-to-low priced SP options and pairing two together should lead to unique lineup construction on multi-SP sites.
Spread Out Ownership
Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell: all guys that are going to be higher owned than Stephen Strasburg. Tuesday’s slate is chock full of strong starting pitching options which should spread out ownership and allow you to take aggressive stances on guys like Stephen Strasburg who will be low owned despite a strong road matchup against Miami at pitcher friendly Marlins Park. Strasburg has had a puzzling long leash as the season nears its end, topping 100 pitches in each of his last two outings and should that long leash continue on Tuesday night he has one of the better chances at pitching a complete game. There have been some concerns around Strasburg’s dip in velo but he’s been able to compensate with any drop in velocity by striking out more than 10+ batters/9 innings in four of his last six starts. There’s enough concern here where I would opt for another high priced pitcher in cash but Strasburg grabs my attention in GPPs.