DFS Alerts
Tuesday's board is deep in premium pitchers
One game off from a full slate and a healthy number of five pitchers exceed a $10K price tag on both sites. No pitcher exceeds that cost on only one site. Stephen Strasburg (28.1 K%, 3.30 SIERA, .318 xwOBA) struck out nine Phillies in seven innings last time out and hasn’t allowed more than two ERs in four straight. He’s got one of the top matchups on the board in Miami (8.4 HR/FB at home, 85 wRC+ vs RHP). The SP4 on FD, SP5 on DK may be the top value among high priced arms tonight. Clayton Kershaw (24.7 K%, 3.28 SIERA, .283 xwOBA) has gone at least six innings in 13 straight starts, but does not have a double digit strikeout game in any of those starts. He’s the SP3 on FD, SP2 on DK and also in a great spot in one of the most negative run environments in baseball against the Rockies (80 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB% on the road, but 16 HR/FB vs LHP). Aaron Nola (26.6 K%, 3.42 SIERA, .269 xwOBA) might be the top overall pitcher on the board this season, but while his strikeout rate has increased to 32.5% over the last month, he’s allowed at least three runs over each of his last three starts (seven HRs). The Mets are an improved offense, now with a 103 wRC+ on the road and 101 wRC+ vs RHP. Nola is the SP5 on FD, but the SP3 on DK. Corey Kluber (25.6 K%, 3.29 SIERA, .294 xwOBA) has had a week off after a terrible start in Tampa Bay (1.2 IP, 4 ER). He’s had two great starts, but also two terrible ones against the Rays and Royals over his last four. Kluber is the most expensive FD pitcher, but SP4 on DraftKings at home against the White Sox (18.7 K-BB% vs RHP). Blake Snell (30.7 K%, 3.35 SIERA, .284 xwOBA) has a 40.4 K% over the last month and may be the highest upside pitcher on the board. He’s also the most expensive pitcher on DK, SP2 on FD. He’s also in a terrible park in Texas, though the Rangers have just a 90 wRC+ vs LHP and 58 wRC+ over the last month , but both with a strikeout rate just below 23%.
Other tagged players: Clayton Kershaw, Aaron Nola, Corey Kluber, Blake Snell
Things That Are Unsustainable for $500
Carlos Rodon’s 3.10 ERA: Things that are unsustainable for $500, Alex. While Rodon’s surface numbers look strong, the advanced metrics look less favorably upon his 110.1 IP this season. Rodon’s 5.00 SIERA is nearly two whole runs higher than his 3.10 ERA and Rodon is actually having the worst season of his career in terms of swings and misses (9.2 SwStr%) and strikeout rate (18.6%). I’ve been waiting for Rodon to truly blow up for most of the second half of the season and I’m not giving up yet in what is an extremely difficult matchup for a pitcher that can’t miss bats and can’t prevent stolen bases (-2 rSB). While expensive, Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor are elite options to pay up for on Tuesday night.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor
Power and Speed
While Steven Matz has been consistently good the second half of the season his stolen base numbers (-3 rSB) and home run numbers (1.54 HR/9; 17.1% HR/FB) remain high because of how terrible he has been at points this year. Matz will always be in the conversation of pitchers to stack against whenever he takes the mound simply because he struggles in the two areas we want to target most when stacking a team: power and speed. The Phillies don’t have a bunch of speedsters on their team but they showed us earlier this season that even their non-baserunners will run when given the right matchup as Philadelphia stole five bags off Syndergaard just last month. The Phillies will be low owned on a full slate but have one of the better upside matchups of the night.
Other tagged players: Rhys Hoskins, Jose Bautista, Cesar Hernandez, Wilson Ramos, Carlos Santana Worst Swinging Strike-Rate
Yovani Gallardo has far and away the worst swinging strike-rate on the slate at 5.8%. The next worst of guys that have started at least one game this season is Mike Leake at 7.7%. All of the Rays hitters are priced up on DraftKings while they have a more accessible price point on FanDuel. The Rays have the top implied run total on the slate (5.7) and you’ll want to get exposure to their offense somehow if not just completely stack them in GPPs. Keep an eye on their lineup as there could be some value to be had if a guy like Brandon Lowe cracks top five in the order again.
Other tagged players: Ji-Man Choi, Brandon Lowe, Kevin Kiermaier Top One-Off Play of the Slate
The Reds couldn’t get anything going against Wade Miley, as he continues to defy all odds. Their matchup against Chase Anderson is really simple to break down. He’s a right-handed pitcher with serious reverse-splits. On the season, he has held lefties to a .310 xwOBA, while allowing a .388 xwOBA and a HR/9 of 2.02 to righties. I absolutely love the spot for Eugenio Suarez as a one-off target. He bats from the right side and owns a .231 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Stacking in Texas
The Rays were a bit of a letdown yesterday, but we can forgive and forget. They see a massive ballpark boost playing in Texas and they draw one of the best matchups on the board. In addition to having a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate, Yovani Gallardo has allowed a .375+ xwOBA and a 37%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. I will be going right back to the well with a full Rays’ stack tonight. Ji-Man Choi is my favorite of the bunch, as he boasts a .393 xwOBA and a .255 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
So Many Aces Tonight... Just Close your Eyes and Pick One
The Indians don’t have much to play for at this point and they are already planning for the postseason. They pushed back Kluber’s start in order to have him on regular rest for the first playoff game. Once we get into next week, I will start to worry about their motivation and about them potentially pulling pitchers early. For tonight, I will be playing Kluber with confidence. His strikeouts have been trending upward and he draws one of the best matchups on the board — the White Sox projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .308 with a strikeout rate of 26% against right-handed pitching.
Elite Strikeout Upside at Min Salary
James will be making his second career major league start tonight against the Mariners. He is min-priced on DraftKings ($4,000) and brings some serious strikeout upside to the table. In 17 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 3.39 FIP with a strikeout rate of 35%. The issue is that his last two outings have come out of the bullpen. His last start was on September 1st when he threw 91 pitches. We need to keep an eye out for what his pitch count will be tonight. Anything above 75 and I’m in.
Power Hunting
Baltimore’s Dylan Bundy has by far the highest home run rate of all qualified starters in the league this season at 2.19 HR/9. He allows a ton of fly balls to both sides of the plate with no ability to limit hard contact. The big difference in his skills is a high 31% K rate against righties that drops all the way to 17.7% against lefties. This puts Toronto lefty power high on the list tonight. My first look would be the first base duo of Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales, but we have a lot of good first base options, so I’m more likely to land on some savings in the outfield with Billy McKinney. McKinney had a .269 ISO at Triple-A this season and so far in his first 27 big league games has put up a solid .207 ISO and .352 wOBA with close to average plate skills, a 24.7% K rate and 8.2% walks. If he leads off tonight, there is power and run scoring upside for a very reasonable salary.
Site Specific Values
The Tampa bats have been priced up for their trip to Texas on DK/FDRFT, but not so much on FanDuel. Tommy Pham is just $3,300, batting near the top of the lineup for the top projected offense of the night. As bad as Yovani Gallardo is to lefties, he’s even better to attack with individual right-handed bats, where he throws a few more strikes but has even less swing and miss ability, with just a 12% K rate and 39% hard contact allowed to righties. Pham is a must play in Tampa stacks and my preferred one off from this team in tournaments. I’ll pair him with Ji-Man Choi in cash games to get two upside bats on this Rays team.
Power Team In A Power Spot
The top of the board tonight is the same two teams that we had on Monday, with the Rays and Brewers carrying the highest projected totals by a wide margin. Just as was the case yesterday, Christian Yelich is the top play here, and maybe the best on the slate, but salary cap is a thing. The infield duo of Travis Shaw and Mike Moustakas give us more affordable exposure to this high upside offense. The Reds have a heavily right-handed bullpen, so even after Lorenzen leaves the game, we should get more chances for the Brewers lefty power bats. Shaw comes in with a .291 ISO on 40% hard hits and Moustakas with a .239 ISO on 44% hard hits against righties. Both guys also have strikeout rates below 18% against righties, giving them more upside beyond just the power.
Other tagged players: Mike Moustakas May As Well Go Right Back
Ji-Man Choi chalk nights now have 100% success rate after last night’s home run. Though the Rays didn’t have a big night Monday, they are right back on top of the list tonight with the highest total on the slate and facing one of the worst pitchers in the league in Yovani Gallardo. He has low 14% strikeouts, high 11 walks% and a silly 6.67 ERA and 5.51 SIERA. Against lefties, he’s either allowing walks at 12.1% or hard hits at 38.5%. Choi has on base upside from his 10.8% BB rate and power upside with his 47% hard hits and .255 ISO against righties.
The Price Difference Is Insane
It always seems like there is one guy on FanDuel that is way underpriced. Mallex Smith is $4,800 on DraftKings and priced as the 13th overall outfielder, but he’s $3,100 on FanDuel and priced as the 47th overall outfielder. That’s a huge difference from one site to the other, and I plan on taking advantage of it today. He’s 13 for his last 43 at the plate and he have five stolen bases over the last ten games. Gallardo struggles against righties and lefties, and he doesn’t do a great job holding on runners. This is an excellent spot to attack the Tampa Rays, and I have them as my top overall stack on this slate.
Power Upside With A Cheap Price Tag
I’d be stacking Pittsburgh if they were in a different ballpark tonight, but I don’t mind taking a couple of these cheaper guys. Reyes and Osuna are my favorite two cheap guys here. Jose Osuna has a .244 ISO with a .422 CXwOBA against left-handed pitching this season. It’s a small sample size but it’s worth noting at this price. Skoglund has a .358 wOBA with a .225 ISO and a 45.9% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters. The cheap righties are in play for me, and I’m hoping Jose Osuna draws the start.
Nice Batted Ball Profile
It has been a rough year for Logan Forsythe, but I’m willing to take a shot at him tonight at this price tag. He’s projected to hit leadoff against Daniel Norris, and while his numbers are down this year, he’s always been an above average hitter against left-handed pitching. Norris has a .338 wOBA with a .225 ISO against right-handed hitters this season, while allowing 50.8% fly balls and 44.4% hard contact. Forsythe’s contact rate is at 85% over the last 30 days. In this matchup at this price, he’s a top value play on this slate.