DFS Alerts
Great Spot To Target
Joey Lucchesi is one of my favorite point per dollar pitchers tonight. He’s in a plus ballpark for pitching, he faces a weak offense, and he has a really good pitchers umpire. The projected starting lineup for the Giants have a .136 ISO with a .298 wOBA and a 22% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. Lucchesi has a 3.79 xFIP with a 25.4% strikeout rate this season. His struggle has been against right-handed power bats, and outside of Longoria/Hundley if you call them power bats, the Giants don’t have a lot of power in this lineup.
Too Cheap To Overthink It
Josh James has all kinds of talent, with a huge 35.2% K rate at Triple-A this season, and nine strikeouts in five innings in his one major league start. He has been in the bullpen the past couple weeks and we need to assume there is a pretty limited pitch count here, but the low ceiling for innings is more than baked into his minimum salary price point. Even in his last two relief appearances, when he threw just 38 and 41 pitches, his strikeout ability allowed him to post 8.95 and 13.40 DK points. Even if we only see 3-4 innings here, I’ll take that even in cash games as the cheap SP2 tonight.
Upside Above The Upside
There are five elite aces on the mound tonight, and on FanDuel, they are all separated by just $1,300, meaning salary does not have to be the deciding factor. Of all these great pitchers, there is one number that sticks out like a sore thumb. It is the 37.7% K rate of Blake Snell in the second half, which is a full 10% ahead of the other four aces. He has struck out at least 8 batters in five straight starts, and though the ballpark downgrade is significant, he has been as matchup proof as they come. He has shut down the Yankees and Indians on the road during his strong second half, and the Rangers are not the same power threat against left-handed pitching. I still prefer Snell in tournaments, with some safer matchups for cash, but for points per dollar upside, it’s Snell on top tonight.
Play An Ace, There Are Plenty
We have five top of the line aces on the mound tonight, all within a fairly tight range of salaries. It is more important that you play one of them than it is exactly which one you play. We are at the point in the season, when projecting workload based on the importance of the games comes into play. That is what boosts Clayton Kershaw to the top of my list. The Dodgers have a half game lead on tonight’s opponent and their ace on the mound. This is a playoff game for the Dodgers, and with Kershaw on a string of 13 consecutive quality starts, and the Rockies huge drop off in offense on the road, the floor here is immense. Though Kershaw’s strikeout rate is not as high as the guys ahead of him, he is so efficient with just a 2.2% walk rate in the second half that he can make up the difference with quick easy innings.
Strikeout Upside With A Great Price
When trying to fit in bats tonight, we can actually fit in a top tier pitcher with some big bats if we play Joshua James. I wish we knew what his pitch count looked like for tonight, it’s something I will be looking for all day. James has been electric in the Minors. He had a 14.3% swinging strike rate with a 35.2% strikeout rate in 92.2 innings this season in AAA. It’s not the greatest matchup, but at this price with this kind of strikeout stuff, it’s hard not to take a shot on him in tournaments. He has a very good fastball with an above average slider.
Weather Makes Me Go Cheap
With all the shaky weather on the East Coast, I am swapping out all my pitchers on DK/FDRFT, away from Wheeler and Musgrove, and towards Corbin + a cheap option. Andrew Suarez is OK for cash, but I’d rather just save even more and go down to a decent ground ball pitcher in Miami in a great matchup for the salary with Erick Fedde.
Start of Monday's TOR-BAL game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles on Monday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Orioles have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. Since starting pitchers from this contest aren’t likely to be heavily targeted options in daily fantasy formats, the late start obviously doesn’t do much to add to their overall fantasy appeal, but as Kevin Roth detailed in his updated forecast, hitters from this game are still far from safe given the chance of a late postponement, though it no longer appears to be the likeliest outcome.
As reported by: Roch Kubatko via Twitter
Weather concerns in several spots tonight
There is concern in several spots in Monday’s updated forecast, which is now available on the Weather page. Premium subscribers will want to be sure to tune into Crunch Time at 6:30 ET tonight, where Kevin will give players further updates.
Check Out What I Found
I’ve been very frustrated with stacking against Wade Miley, and I spent almost an hour today figuring out what is different. Miley has been throwing a cutter at 40% of the time this season, and he’s never thrown a cutter before. Against righties he has a .093 xISO with a .242 wOBA with his cutter, and that’s the reason his numbers against righties have changed so much. We see it from time to time with pitchers adding pitches, and with the limited options tonight, I really like Miley tonight. It’s a late add to my player pool today, and for anyone that listens to the Morning Grind, I will still have a stack against him as well.
Joey Gallo (toe) scratched Monday; Willie Calhoun replaces
Gallo has been scratched from the Texas Rangers original confirmed lineup and will not start in Monday’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays due to a bruised toe resulting from a ball being fouled off his bat over the weekend. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Willie Calhoun, who will play left field and slot directly into Gallo’s vacated sixth spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Rangers lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Tyler Glasnow at home this evening.
As reported by: John Blake via Twitter Other tagged players: Willie Calhoun Joey Rickard scratched Monday; Chris Davis replaces
Rickard has been scratched from the Baltimore Orioles original confirmed lineup and will not start in Monday’s matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays due to yet another lineup change by manager Buck Showalter, the second one of the day. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Chris Davis, who will play first base slot into the fifth spot in the order, which slides Tim Beckham and Renato Nunez down one batting position to sixth and seventh, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Orioles order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against left-hander Ryan Borucki at home this evening.
As reported by: Jon Meoli via Twitter Other tagged players: Chris Davis Francisco Cervelli (illness) scratched Monday; Jacob Stallings replaces
Cervelli has been scratched from the Pirates original confirmed lineup and will not start in Monday’s matchup against the Kansas City Royals due to an illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jacob Stallings, who will handle the catching duties and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Corey Dickerson up to the three-hole, sliding Josh Bell back to clean-up, while Jordan Luplow, Kevin Kramer, Kevin Newman each move up one batting position to fifth, sixth, and seventh, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Pirates order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Brad Keller at home this evening.
As reported by: Adam Berry via Twitter Other tagged players: Jacob Stallings Top half of lineup too strong to ignore
Arizona is no longer an offensive haven, while Kyle Hendricks has done a good job against LHBs (.305 wOBA). RHBs are actually a single point higher (.306) with the Diamondbacks implied for just 4.01 runs, but this is very much a stars and scrubs lineup. There are plenty of outs in the second half, but that shouldn’t preclude players from utilizing a potent top half that includes A.J. Pollock (109 wRC+, .195 ISO Vs RHP this season), Eduardo Escobar (121 wRC+, .258 ISO), David Peralta (151 wRC+, .254 ISO) and Paul Goldschmidt (142 wRC+, .241 ISO), who could all find themselves under-owned in this matchup.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Escobar, Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Hendricks, A.J. Pollock No run environment takes this bat off the board against LHP
Wade LeBlanc continues to provide quality starts to the Mariners and finds himself in one of the few parks that may be an upgrade as far as run environment in concerned, but the team that resides in it offers six batters above a 120 wRC+ vs LHP this season. The Astros have a 4.82 implied run line that’s good enough for fourth best on the board tonight. LeBlanc doesn’t have much of a split, but has actually been better vs RHBs this season (.297 wOBA). At the very least though, Alex Bregman (169 wRC+, .265 ISO vs LHP this season) is in the conversation against any southpaw, as expensive as he is. George Springer (135 wRC+, .195 ISO) should have some value at the top of the lineup as well.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Wade LeBlanc Run environment stands out more than the matchup
Tyler Glasnow has been a quality arm out of the pen for the Pirates and since being inserted into the rotation for the Rays. He bounced back from a terrible outing in Toronto with seven innings against Cleveland, but did allow two HRs and strike out only three. The Rangers have a 4.84 implied run line at home, which seems justifiable, but it’s also the third highest total on a board fairly deep in pitching and perhaps light on very positive run environments. Glasnow has held LHBs below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA with a 54.3 GB% this season, while RHBs have a .312 wOBA, .344 xwOBA and 44.7 GB% against him. Shin-Soo Choo (143 wRC+, .214 ISO) is by far the best overall hitter against RHP in this lineup this season. No other batter exceeds a 115 wRC+. Perhaps Adrian Beltre (107 wRC+, .171 ISO) gains in value here. The rest of the lineup has some left-handed power, but is very hit or miss with a lot of strikeouts.
Other tagged players: Adrian Beltre, Tyler Glasnow