DFS Alerts
SP2 with Upside
Gray has been an easy pitcher to predict this season. Avoid him anytime he pitches in Yankee Stadium and play him on the road in favorable matchups. He was relegated to the bullpen recently, but will draw the start tonight against the Twins. There has been some talk of a pitch count, but he’s thrown 79 and 62 pitches in his last two relief appearances. I expect him to throw at least 90 pitches if he’s going well. I wouldn’t call this a great matchup, but Gray has strikeout upside at this price point and he comes into the game as a -170 favorite.
Highest Projected Offense of the Slate
The Red Sox have the highest implied run total on the board, which is of note considering the fact that there is a game being played in Coors Field tonight. They draw an exploitable matchup against Ryan Borucki, who is a low strikeout pitcher that has allowed a .351 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Steve Pearce make an amazing four-man stack in tournaments and they all grade out as elite plays individually.
Limited Upside
There is nothing sexy about taking Brad Keller on any slate, but at his price and with the limited options, I like the play tonight. He’s limited lefties to a .104 ISO and righties to a .084 ISO. He has a 54.2% ground ball rate, but he does have an 8.8% walk rate and a 16.2% strikeout rate. He should limit the damage here, but he does have limited upside. The White Sox strikeout a lot, but that doesn’t mean Keller is going to strike everyone out tonight. It certainly helps that the starting lineup has a 24.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. They do have enough power in this lineup to make it a risky spot for Keller.
The Best Way To Get In Play Here
The Diamondbacks and Red Sox are the top of the heap tonight, both with talented lineups and facing low strikeout pitchers in good hitting ballparks. I would love to start with Paul Goldschmidt or David Peralta here, but the salaries make that a little tough to get to. I will side with Eduardo Escobar and A.J. Pollock who are more reasonably priced, while keeping plenty of upside on their own as well as from the team context. Escobar has a .254 ISO and .357 wOBA with 40% hard hits and should again be near the top of the lineup, with a switch hitting edge once we get into the bullpen. The Rockies’ Antonio Senzatela allows more hard contact to righties, so on DK/FDRFT, I might start with Pollock and his 45% hard hits at the same salary.
Other tagged players: A.J. Pollock
An Unusual Pricing Situation
The Blue Jays bats are priced for a matchup with Chris Sale, but that’s not really what they have. They are going to see Sale one time and then he’ll be out in favor of Nate Eovaldi. Eovaldi is a guy who can’t do much more than throw strikes, with a below average 17.6% K rate to lefties with no ability to control batted balls. The first base duo of Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales are underpriced, with Morales leading the way on DK/FDRFT, and Smoak coming in cheaper on FanDuel with his 40% hard hits and .264 ISO against righties for just $3,100.
He's Cheap and He's Got Power
I’m going to stick with cheap power hunting tonight, as the high end spends are easy to spot, but tough to fit. The Marlins Jose Urena has no ability to limit hard contact to left-handed batters, and the one thing the Mets have is left-handed power. Jay Bruce looks like his old self since coming off the DL with a 46% hard hit rate, 51% fly balls and a .373 wOBA. This is affordable power on a night where we need the savings.
Breaking Records and Making a Case for the Cy Young
DeGrom was originally scheduled to pitch Sunday, then he was expected to pitch last night, and now he’s hoping to take the mound tonight. He’s looking to break the record for most consecutive starts without allowing more than three runs and he’s also looking to solidify his case for the Cy Young award. In 28 starts this season, he owns a 2.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% and a soft contact rate of 25%. The Marlins can be a pesky offense at times, but I’m not overly concerned. With Chris Sale on a pitch count, deGrom is clearly the number one option in tonight’s slate.
Elite Stolen Base Matchup for the Potential AL MVP
The Indians were under-owned last night and I expect that to be the case again tonight. I will try to make a strong case for both Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez. Tyler Glasnow is a talented young pitcher that that held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA this season. That’s not exactly ideal, right? The good news is that he has a 13% walk rate and that he’s the worst pitcher in the slate when it comes to holding runners. If and when Lindor and Ramirez get on base, they will be extremely aggressive. In addition to stealing 32 bases this season, Ramirez boasts a .330 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Sneaky Value
Can I interest you in a hitter against Chris Sale? No, probably not. But how about a $3,500 Kendrys Morales against Nate Eovaldi? Yes please. The Blue Jays are priced for the matchup with Sale, but will only see him once, and then it’s on to Eovaldi. Eovaldi is OK, but has just a 17.6% K rate to lefties with neutral batted balls. There is nothing neutral about the 46% hard hits or .237 ISO for Morales against right-handed pitching. Take advantage of the pricing discrepancy on an unusual pitching situation for Boston that is not accounted for in the pricing.
Savings In The Outfield
It’s very easy to spot the top bats tonight, and I don’t think you need my encouragement to play Paul Goldschmidt or Mookie Betts if you have the salary. What I’m mostly looking for are some quality hitters below the $4k/$8k range on DK/FDRFT and below the $3,500 range on FD. Finding a few of these will make it possible to get Jacob deGrom or a high end stack. Kole Calhoun and the Angels face a low strikeout rookie in Adrian Sampson who had just a 15.8% K rate at Triple-A. Calhoun leads off for a good lineup, and has a huge 57% hard hit rate over the past month. He can do the damage on his own with power, or can get on base (.374 OBP in the past month) and have run scoring upside with the likes of Trout and Upton coming up behind him.
So Far Ahead Of The Field
Because of the salary, we can’t really call deGrom a must play, and I certainly wouldn’t lock button him in tournaments, but the rest of this pitching slate is just ugly. Outside of Mike Foltynewicz, who is also expensive, everything on this slate is a huge risk. At least in cash games, I’m willing to overpay for the one good spot. Jacob deGrom has a string of 20 straight quality starts, leads the league with a 1.68 ERA and has a 31.3% strikeout rate, which is the best on this slate (not counting Chris Sale who is limited to two innings tonight). deGrom has been dominating teams far better than what he faces tonight with a Marlins team that ranks last in ISO and wOBA against right-handed pitching. This is the closest thing to a guarantee as we have on this slate and I’m willing to overpay for it.
Monday's WAS-PHI game postponed due to unplayable field conditions
The matchup between the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies on Monday night has been postponed due to unplayable field conditions stemming from inclement weather throughout the weekend. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Tuesday, September 11 at 3:05 pm EST as part of a traditional doubleheader. Unfortunately, the official word of the cancellation came after lock of the main MLB slate, so players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on tonight’s slates across the industry.
As reported by: Jim Salisbury via Twitter
Always There When You Need Them
As we’ve seen over and over, the FanDuel pricing algorithm just does not respect the Phillies bats. Anytime you need something cheap, you can find it in this lineup. Tonight they face a young pitcher in Erick Fedde who has very little major league sample size, but what we have seen is a one-skill pitcher with ground ball ability. He hasn’t shown strikeout ability to lefties and this lineup is likely to make him work hard enough that we should also see plenty of this beatable Nationals bullpen. Carlos Santana has the fly ball ability to offest the ground balls, as well as strong plate discipline that gives him on-base upside.
Updated forecast has no major concerns
Now that the most serious issue has already been dealt with by PPD, there are no major concerns remaining in Kevin’s updated forecast. Players can read the full report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can join Kevin for further details on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Quality bats, but fairly expensive against a decent pitcher
Interesting that the Yankees decide to keep Andrew McCutchen (108 wRC+, .151 ISO vs RHP this season) at the top of the lineup against a RHP. In fact, he’s now the only one of the first six batters for the Yankees below a .195 ISO vs RHP this season. Gary Sanchez (70 wRC+, .208 ISO) prohibits that statement from reading above a 105 wRC+ as well. Some players may not realize that Minnesota is just as positive a run environment as Yankee Stadium. It’s not as power friendly, but still above average for RHBs. This has the Yankees at 4.73 implied runs, good for second best on the board against Kyle Gibson, who’s strikeout rate is down to 17.4% over the last month, but his .325 xwOBA is the same as it is for the season. He’s not a bad pitcher and Giancarlo Stanton (107 wRC+, .205 ISO) may be a bit over-priced against a pitcher who’s kept RHBs on the ground 54% of the time on batted balls this year. Aaron Hicks (132 wRC+, .195 ISO) is interesting because although Gibson has a .303 wOBA against LHBs this year, xwOBA increases that by 35 points. This is a strong lineup, but they’re expensive and don’t seem particularly great values in this spot, the deeper you go.
Other tagged players: Andrew McCutchen, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, Kyle Gibson