DFS Alerts
Small sample superstar (241 wRC+, .471 ISO vs RHP) has Statcast numbers to back him up
Dylan Covey has allowed just three runs over his last 12 innings, all in relief. After impressing earlier in the season, a stretch of nine starts in 11 allowing four or more runs knocked him from the rotation. He’s kept RHBs on the ground an astounding 62.1% of the time on batted balls, but LHBs have a .348 wOBA against him with a GB rate 15 points higher. Small sample superstar Ryan O’Hearn (241 wRC+, .471 ISO, 58.5 Hard%, .500 xwOBA) is supported by his Statcast numbers even if they’re still going to regress heavily. He may be worth a shot here at a reasonable price. Alex Gordon (109 wRC+, .158 ISO vs RHP this season) and Raul Mondesi (102 wRC+, .171 ISO) have been league average bats ahead of him.
Other tagged players: Dylan Covey, Alex Gordon, Adalberto Mondesi
Quality pitcher with an exploitable weakness
Shane Bieber (19.9 K-BB%) has some impressive peripherals, but he’s unable to handle LHBs (.395 wOBA, 51.5 Hard%, 33.6 GB%). It’s not that players should look to stack Rays against him, but they do have a few potent bats from that side. The hottest of them all (266 wRC+ last seven days) has been Ji-Man Choi (153 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP this year), who costs $4K or less on either site in the third spot. Mallex Smith (120 wRC+, .127 ISO) has little power and a higher cost, but a great lineup spot at the top or the order. Brandon Lowe (134 wRC+, .210 ISO) costs just $2.6K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Shane Bieber, Mallex Smith, Brandon Lowe Rookie pitcher has struggled in this tough spot before
The Red Sox sit high atop the board at 5.97 implied runs against Ryan Borucki and the Blue Jays. No other team comes within half a run. In two previous starts for Borucki against the Sox, 11 runs have been score in eight innings with seven walks. Boston will send seven RHBs against him and batters from that side have a 334 wOBA with a 40.1 GB% against Borucki this season. Mookie Betts (211 wRC+, .375 ISO vs LHP this season) is probably the top bat on the board. He has a 249 wRC+ over the last week and is enormously expensive. Xander Bogearts (113 wRC+, .137 ISO) has been even hotter (358 wRC+ last seven days). J.D. Martinez (159 wRC+, .218 ISO) is in the first slump of his career (54 wRC+ last seven days). Steve Pearce (173 wRC+, .244 ISO) is the resident value play against southpaws.
Other tagged players: Xander Bogaerts, Ryan Borucki, JD Martinez, Steve Pearce Daily Bullpen Alert: Everybody's bullpenning
With neither team in action on Monday, the Nationals (6.17 FIP, 11.9 K-BB%) and Orioles (6.03 FIP, 6.5 K-BB%) are still both far worse than any other bullpen in baseball over the last month. The Nationals play two behind Erick Fedde and Tanner Roark in Philadelphia. Availability depends on site and slate. The Orioles have the much improved Alex Cobb, at home though, against a hard hitting Oakland lineup. The Reds (early start) and Twins (5.01 FIP, 11.2 K-BB%) are the only other bullpens above a five FIP over the last month. Minnesota will work entirely out of that pen at home against the Yankees with Tyler Duffey opening. The Marlins (4.98 FIP, 9.0 K-BB%) behind Jose Urena in New York and Cardinals (4.93 FIP, 4.9 K-BB%) with Miles Mikolas hosting the Pirates also deserve special mention with their inferior peripherals. The Rangers (4.98 FIP, 14 K-BB%) and Angels (4.29 FIP, 12.1 K-BB%) may both be bullpenning each other out in L.A., where Jim Johnson and Adrian Sampson each get their first start. Sampson did start 19 games at AAA this season though, where he complied a 15.8 K%. The Red Sox (4.21 FIP, 14.3 K-BB%) will also be bullpenning behind two to three innings from the returning Chris Sale.
Mid-tier pitching is difficult to navigate, but not impossible tonight
The clear top pitcher on tonight’s slate is incredibly expensive. Many players are going to look to pivot and DraftKings players need a much cheaper supplement. The problem is that those values may be hard to find. Miles Mikolas has been a consistent contact manager (85.5 mph aEV) with little strikeout upside (16.8 K%) and that upside gets even less against the Pirates (19.8 K% vs RHP), while he’s allowed at least four runs in three of his last five starts. He’s also gone beyond six innings in just one of his last four. Andrew Suarez (19.5 K%, 4.26 SIERA, .329 xwOBA) might be a viable option in a great park. He’s gone at least six innings in four of his last five, but has also allowed five runs in two of those starts and the Braves have a 110 wRC+ with a 19.9 K% vs LHP. Tyler Glasnow was routed by the Blue Jays for seven runs in less than an inning in his last start and has an even tougher matchup with Cleveland tonight (105 wRC+, 19.1 K% vs RHP), but he’s at least at home, still has a 26 K% over the last month and costs just $5.9K on FanDuel. Shane Bieber (19.9 K-BB%) is on the other side of that matchup for less than $9K with a substantial park upgrade. He’s had tremendous issues with LHBs though (.395 wOBA, 51.5 Hard%). Joe Musgrove has a 26.7 K% and 3.00 SIERA (.301 xwOBA) over the last month. He’s completed seven innings in eight of 17 starts and gets a slight park upgrade in St Louis (19.8 K-BB% last seven days). He’s up to $9.1K on DraftKings, but still just $7.7K on FanDuel. Jose Urena (18.8 K%, 4.22 SIERA, .325 xwOBA) could be a moderately priced complement to his opponent in New York (84 wRC+, 9.1 HR/FB at home), but the Mets have been a much better team since the All-Star break. Sonny Gray has allowed just four runs over his last 19.2 innings, but that includes just one start. He did pitch into the seventh inning in that start without allowing a run in Baltimore. The Twins are a below average offense, but don’t strike out a ton (21.6% vs RHP). DraftKings players might also consider Brad Keller in that SP2 spot. He has just a 16.2 K%, but keeps the ball on the ground (53.1%) and costs less than $6K in a spot with some upside (White Sox 18.7 K-BB% vs RHP).
Other tagged players: Miles Mikolas, Andrew Suarez, Tyler Glasnow, Shane Bieber, Jose Urena, Sonny Gray, Brad Keller One incredibly clear top pitcher tonight
The top pitcher and the top priced pitcher, also with one of the best matchups on the board tonight, is Jacob deGrom. The NL Cy Young favorite (31.3 K%, 2.90 SIERA, .257 xwOBA) has 20 straight quality starts and has allowed more than three runs just once all season (his third start). He’s at home against the Marlins (85 wRC+, 15.3 K-BB% vs RHP). He’s actually $100 less than Chris Sale on DraftKings, though the big lefty is unusable with an expectation of just a couple of innings. The only other pitcher to exceed $10K tonight also does so on both sites, yet is much less expensive than deGrom and pitches in San Francisco (85 wRC+, 16.7 K-BB% vs RHP). It gets even worse for the depleted lineup of the Giants with a 52 wRC+ and 26.6 K-BB% over the last week. It’s a great matchup and a park upgrade for a pitcher with a 27.8 K%, but Mike Foltynewicz only has a perfectly league average 10.1 SwStr%. There’s nothing spectacular about his contact management either (88.2 mph aEV, 7.0% Barrels/BBE). In many cases, he’s been accurately or even over-priced. This matchup could be one where he has some value though. An effort should be made to get deGrom tonight though.
Other tagged players: Chris Sale, Mike Foltynewicz The Oxymoron
The oxymoron that is Sonny Gray will toe the rubber on the road against the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday night. Gray was sent to the bullpen after a rough stretch of starting earlier this season and he’s looked sharper as of late – two outings ago Gray posted a 29.9 DK pt performance on 79 pitches as he struck out seven Baltimore hitters in 6.1 innings. Gray is unlikely to have a long leash but is a strong mid-tier option on a slate that lacks reliable pitching options.
Chalky SP2 Pivot
When Brad Keller projects as SP2 chalk you pivot. Marco Gonzales is my favorite pivot in Keller’s price range as the Mariners lefty will host a whiff-heavy Padres lineup. Gonzales won’t top 75 pitches in his return from the DL but that’s still enough room for him to return value on his dirt cheap price tag. Marco was a dominate force to start the season, and while he cooled off before hitting the DL, his season long numbers are still strong as he owns a 3.81 SIERA and 21.1% strikeout rate.
Hard Contact
Of Tuesday’s probable starters that have started at least one game, Zack Greinke owns the second highest hard-hit rate (42.3%) on the slate. Greinke is no doubt a talented pitcher but hard-contact in Coors isn’t a recipe for success. While Greinke has allowed more hard contact to righty handed hitters (43.9%) he’s done a worse job generating soft from lefty hitters (17.3% vs RHP, 14.7% LHP). Greinke’s name recognition + a full-slate will lower Rockies ownership despite them being one of the better stacks of the slate.
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, David Dahl, Chris Iannetta Crushing Right-Handed Pitching
Shane Bieber is coming off a really good game against the Blue Jays, and I’m hoping that lowers the ownership on the Rays lefties tonight. Bieber has a .397 wOBA with a .247 ISO and a 50% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season, and Ji-Man Choi continues to crush right-handed pitching. He has a .269 ISO with a .403 wOBA and a 44.2% hard-hit rate against righties so far and has been a great add for the Rays. With Choi getting regular starts, his stats have gotten even better. He’s one of my favorite plays on this slate, and I love his cheap price on FanDuel in particular.
Stretch It
There are a ton of hitting options on Tuesday’s loaded 12-game slate but the Diamondbacks have one of the highest implied run totals of the slate (5.5). The Diamondbacks get a massive park shift in their favor as they travel to take on Antonio Senzatela in Coors. Senzatela is a below average pitcher that has really struggled generating swings and misses — his 7.1% swinging strike-rate is one of the lowest on the slate. Balls in play + Coors huge outfield = good things, especially for those Diamondbacks with speed and the ability to stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples.
Other tagged players: A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar Makes deGrom Lineups Work
With the pitching we have on this slate, we’re going to need some value bats, and Jose Miguel Fernandez is really cheap for the Angels tonight. Sampson hasn’t shown a ton of strikeout ability in the minors at any level, and when he went from AA to AAA his strikeout rate went down. Jose Miguel Fernandez has a .297 wOBA against right-handed pitchers in 63 PAs, but he has a .383 CXwOBA against a pitcher with limited strikeout upside. He had a .405 wOBA with a 143 wRC+ in 394 PAs in AAA this season.
Bryan Mitchell...Not Good
Bryan Mitchell…not good. Mitchell has had a rough season – in eight Big League starts this season he’s the owner of a 6.58 ERA (6.41 SIERA). Mitchell didn’t look all that sharp in A+ ball either where he’s pitched 28.1 this season. In his 53.1 IP in the Majors this season Mitchell has a higher walk-rate (14.8%) than strikeout-rate (9.8%). Mitchell hasn’t been able to generate any swings and misses with a slate worst 5.4 SwStr%. A combination of a big slate + this being a West Coast game should lead to fairly low Mariners ownership despite a tremendous matchup. The Mariners are my favorite “sneaky stack” of the night.
Other tagged players: Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Mike Zunino Take Advantage Of These Price Tags
I like the Blue Jays for some salary relief tonight. Chris Sale is only expected to pitch two innings tonight, yet the Blue Jays are priced like they’re facing him for a whole game. Eovaldi is going to be the guy to come in for Sale tonight. He’s struggled recently, and he has struggled a lot more against left-handed hitters, as he has a .342 wOBA with a .190 ISO and a 35.2% hard-hit rate against lefties in 206 PAs this season. Morales has a .237 ISO with a .535 CXwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. He has some strong upside, and with them being on the road, he should get three at bats on top of his at bat against Sale.
All About The Price Point
Marco Gonzales is cheap on DraftKings tonight and could be considered an SP2 with a solid floor. I found some good info on the pitch count questions in an article from thenewstribune.com: “I want to see the same guy we saw in June and July. He was cruising,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said. “And he does feel fine, physically, and he threw all his pitches.” Servais said they’ll likely limit Gonzales to about 75 pitches on Tuesday… With 75 pitches likely the outcome, I think he’s worth a tournament look at his price on DraftKings. The projected starting lineup for the Padres is very right-handed heavy, and while they have some solid bats in this lineup, Gonzales has actually been a little better against righties this season. He has a .315 wOBA with a .150 ISO and a 22.4% strikeout rate against righties this season.