DFS Alerts
Lineup with upside could go under-owned
Jon Lester has been getting better results recently, but his .360 xwOBA this season has remained constant (.362 last 30 days). There’s much to be said for the elite defense behind him, but the Brewers are implied for just just 3.74 runs tonight. There are no wind effects expected at Wrigley tonight and this is a park that boosts RH power normally. RHBs have a .314 wOBA with a .355 xwOBA against Lester this year. Lorenzo Cain (174 wRC+, .179 ISO, 47.8 Hard%), Jesus Aguilar (131 wRC+, .250 ISO, 40.2 Hard%) and Ryan Braun (129 wRC+, .281 ISO, 54.6 Hard%) have all pummeled southpaws this year and are great GPP plays if they’ll go under-owned. Perhaps just as intriguing, Christian Yelich (145 wRC+, .217 ISO, 45.5 Hard%) has also hammered same-handed pitching, while LHBs have a .368 wOBA and .381 xwOBA against Lester this year,
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun, Jon Lester
No other team comes close
Zack Goldey has a 27.3 K% over the last month and keeps LHBs on the ground on 55% of batted balls, more than 10 points higher than RHBs, but he he also has an 88.4 mph aEV. If that gets him in trouble occasionally in Arizona, Coors could be a disaster. Godley has a .320 or better wOBA against batters from either side of the plate this year, but xwOBA increases each side by at least 25 points. As such, the Rockies top the board by a pretty healthy margin at 5.4 implied runs. In fact, no other team is even above five tonight. David Dahl (127 wRC+, .268 ISO) has a smaller sample size, but tops the lineup by wRC+ and ISO against RHP this season and bats fourth tonight. He costs a very reasonable $3.4K on FanDuel. Charlie Blackmon (115 wRC+, .228 ISO) and Trevor Story (102 wRC+, .214 ISO) are the only other bats in the lineup above either a 100 wRC+ or .200 ISO against RHP this year. Nolan Arenado (99 wRC+, .197 ISO) just misses by both counts.
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Zack Godley, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado Emerging pitcher in a really tough spot
A 4.6 implied run line is far from cause for excitement at Coors, but it’s still third highest on the board tonight. German Marquez (33.6 K%, 2.63 SIERA, .262 xwOBA last 30 days) has turned into one of the better arms in the National League, but this is Coors and the top half of this Arizona lineup has some bats. LHBs do have a .339 wOBA against him, which keeps David Peralta (150 wRC+, .249 ISO vs RHP this season) and Eduardo Escobar (117 wRC+, .254 ISO) high on the board tonight. Although Marquez has held RHBs to a .265 wOBA and 52.2 GB% this season, it’s still Coors. Paul Goldschmidt (140 wRC+, .244 ISO) has a team high 226 wRC+ over the last week and four career HRs against Marquez in 25 PAs, though it can certainly be argued he’s a different pitcher now. Marquez costs $9K on either site tonight and there are enough outs in the latter half of this lineup to at least consider him after losing deGrom tonight.
Other tagged players: Eduardo Escobar, Paul Goldschmidt, German Marquez MVP candidate pummels tonight's opposing pitcher
BvP is not a metric DFS players trust very much, but it’s just a nine game slate and we’re talking about perhaps the leading MVP candidate in the National League. Even though Trevor Williams is an excellent contact manager (85.6 mph aEV) in a negative run environment in St Louis, players were probably already considering Matt Carpenter (150 wRC+, .291 ISO, 49.1 Hard% vs RHP this year). Adding fuel to the fire, Carp has faced Williams 22 times. After walking six times, he has 16 official PAs with three HRs and a double. It’s not the 87 mph aEV in this matchup that’s impressive, but the 33 degree average launch angle that’s resulted in an wOBA and xwOBA exceeding .600 in these matchups.
Other tagged players: Trevor Williams Favorable pitching spot for two improving arms
Jakob Junis and Lucas Giolito could be a sneaky spot to rack up some pitcher daily fantasy points. Junis has allowed 27 HRs in 26 starts, combining an 88.5 mph aEV with a 41.5 GB% to results in 8.5% Barrels/BBE. However, he’s allowed just one HR over his last six starts, not exceeding two ERs allowed in any of them and has a 24 K% with a 3.30 SIERA (.305 xwOBA) over the last month. The White Sox have exceed a 25 K% with sub-seven BB% each on the road, vs RHP and over the last week. Giolito has four straight quality starts with at least six strikeouts until faltering last time out against Detroit. He still has those kind of outings in him and certainly isn’t safe, but over the last month, he has a 27 K%, 3.41 SIERA and .266 xwOBA. He’s not very far removed from being one of the most highly regarded pitching prospects in the game.
Other tagged players: Lucas Giolito Fair Price For Solid Pitcher
With the Mets game being cancelled, this FanDuel slate has been shaken up quite a bit. We’re now stuck either overpaying for Corey Kluber or J.A. Happ, or moving down the ranks and taking on some more risk. My lean is go all the way down to Jake Junis at $7,900 in all formats, cash and GPP. Junis has been solid recently, piling up innings and increasing his ground balls. Since the All-Star Break, he has a 24.3% K rate with just 5.5% walks. He’s at home in a pitcher friendly park facing a high strikeout White Sox team that gives him plenty of upside.
Pitcher has allowed at least three runs in almost every start
Considering the rain out in New York leaves us with just two 7pm games and nine overall on the slate, the Phillies are the early game offense to own. Even at just 4.56 implied runs, their fourth highest on the board. Erick Fedde has allowed at least three runs in six of seven starts this year and in the one where he didn’t, he only pitched one inning. In addition, the Washington bullpen has a FIP a full run worse than any other active team over the last 30 days. Despite a ground ball rate above 50%, batters from either side of the plate are above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Fedde this season. Each of the first six batters in the order for the Phillies is above a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this season with only leadoff man Cesar Hernandez (103 wRC+, .117 ISO) below a .175 ISO. Rhys Hoskins (139 wRC+, .283 ISO) is tops in the lineup by both metrics. Carlos Santana (110 wRC+, .188 ISO) has been the hottest bat in the lineup with a 193 wRC+ over the last week. This lineup is moderately priced and should work well as a stack.
Other tagged players: Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez, Erick Fedde Monday's MIA-NYM game has been postponed due to inclement weather
The matchup between the Miami Marlins and New York Mets on Monday night has been postponed due to anticipated inclement weather throughout the evening. The teams have already announced that today’s previously scheduled game will be made up on Wednesday, September 12 at 4:10 pm EST as part of a single-admission doubleheader. Players from this matchup will not accrue fantasy points on Monday’s slates across the industry, so be sure to remove them from lineups as soon as possible.
As reported by: the New York Mets via Twitter
Boom or Bust SP2
Junis gives up a lot of home runs, but much like Masahio Tanaka, he’s made it work. In 26 starts, he has a SIERA under four with a strikeout rate of 22%. We finally have a game in Kansas City where the total looks right. The White Sox do have some firepower in their lineup, but the strikeout upside more than makes up for it. Chicago’s projected lineup has an average k-rate of 25% against right-handed pitching.
Best Point Per Dollar Pitcher
Kluber hasn’t been quite as dominant this season, but a 3.30 SIERA and a 26% strikeout rate is still impressive. It’s worth noting that in his last two starts, he has a 2.39 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 38%. Perhaps he has been saving his best stuff for this time of year, as the Indians gear up for another playoff run. He sees a favorable ballpark shift playing in Tampa Bay and he draws an excellent matchup against the Rays, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .313 with a strikeout rate of 22% against right-handed pitching.
Stolen Base Upside in Kansas City
Even though Lucas Giolito has some appeal as a cheap SP2 in tournaments, don’t cross the Royals off your list of potential targets. On the season, Giolito has allowed a .386 xwOBA to lefties and a .331 xwOBA to righties. He’s also one of the worst in baseball when it comes to holding runners on base. Whit Merrifield is one of the top options at second base, while Alex Gordon, Salvador Perez, and Ryan O’Hearn all boast a .355+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Under the Radar Stack
The Phillies are my favorite offense to target in tonight’s ten-game slate. It feels a bit strange given the fact that we have a game in Coors Field, but there are two competent pitchers on the mound in Colorado. The Phillies are playing at home against Erick Fedde, who has allowed a .408 xwOBA to lefties and a .397 xwOBA to righties. His biggest strength is his ground ball, but the Phillies’ lineup is loaded with fly-ball hitters, which sets up well from a batted ball perspective. Each of the first six batters in the Phillies’ lineup has an xwOBA of at least .355 against right-handed pitching this season — Carlos Santana, Justin Bour, Wilson Ramos, Rhys Hoskins, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Nick Williams.
Daily Bullpen Alert: One active pen remains far worse than all others
The Orioles (6.21 FIP, 5.4 K-BB%) and Nationals (6.13 FIP, 11.7 K-BB%) both have a FIP a full run above any other bullpen over the last 30 days. Unfortunately, Baltimore gets the night off, but the Nationals back rookie Erick Fedde, who has completed six innings just once in seven starts. The Rangers (5.12 FIP, 13.9 K-BB%), Twins (5.01 FIP, 12.6 K) and Royals (5.01 FIP, 9.8 K%) are the other active pens over a five FIP over the last month. The Cardinals (4.95 FIP, 3.8 K-BB%) are close with terrible peripherals. The Rangers are in L.A. behind Mike Minor. The Twins face the Yankees behind Kyle Gibson. The Royals host the White Sox behind Jakob Juinis. The Cardinals host the Pirates. Adam Wainwright gets his first start since May. The St Louis pen should have one of the larger workloads tonight. The Marlins (4.83 FIP, 9.0 K-BB%) are the next bullpen on that list and start rookie Jeff Brigham in just his second major league start.
West coast for moderately priced pitching
If not interested in or unable to afford the top priced pitchers tonight, players should probably be considering all four pitchers in tonight’s two west coast affairs. Mike Minor (20.8 K%, 4.21 SIERA, .344 xwOBA) probably won’t be able to sustain his 30 K% over the last month with a 9.2 SwStr% behind it and facing an offense with a 20.9 K% vs LHP, but he gets a significant park upgrade in L.A. and the Angels have just an 86 wRC+ against southpaws this year. His opponent, Jaime Barria (18.7 K%, 4.55 SIERA, .337 xwOBA) has allowed one run or less in five of his last six starts, but has only completed six innings once over that span, He has a 22.7 K% and 300 xwOBA last 30 days. The Rangers have an 84 wRC+ on the road and 24.5 K% vs RHP. Sean Newcomb (22.1 K%, 4.65 SIERA, .314 xwOBA) has allowed at least three runs in four of his last five starts, not completing even five innings in three of those starts, but he’s in San Francisco, facing a Giants’ offense with an 82 wRC+ and 15.1 K-BB% vs LHP for the season and is now without most of their RH power. Dereck Rodriguez (19.9 K%, 4.28 SIERA, .305 xwOBA) is facing a contact prone offense (20.4 K% vs RHP), but not in a particularly dangerous one (95 wRC+, 11.6 HR/FB vs RHP) in a great park. He’s gone at least six innings in 12 of 15 starts.
Other tagged players: Jaime Barria, Sean Newcomb, Dereck Rodriguez Top pitchers may be the top values on the board too
Monday night may be a rare instance where the slate’s top pitchers might also be two of the better values on the slate. The only two men above $10K on both sites are Jacob deGrom and Corey Kluber. The NL Cy Young favorite (31.3 K%, 2.90 SIERA, .257 xwOBA) has 20 straight quality starts and has allowed more than three runs just once all season (his third start). He’s at home against the Marlins (85 wRC+, 15.3 K-BB% vs RHP), further backed by a 15 mph wind blowing in from right field. The problem is that it’s the only game on the board in danger of a washout. The good news is that the Mets are reluctant to “waste” deGrom starts, as yesterday’s scratch illustrated and players should know before game time if that’s going to be the case again today. Kluber (25.5 K%, 3.30 SIERA, .292 xwOBA) is up to a 29.4 K% over the last month as he’s put down 18 of his last 47 batters on strikes (Royals and Rays), and has pitched into the seventh in nine of his last 11 starts. His matchup is not so ideal against the hottest offense on the board (141 wRC+, 18.3 K% last seven days) in his rematch with the Rays, but he does get a significant park upgrade inside the dome. J.A. Happ (26.6 K%, 3.58 SIERA, .315 xwOBA) has a .340 xwOBA over the last month and costs more than $10K on FanDuel. He’s allowed six HRs over his last four starts and has exceeded six innings just once as a Yankee. He does have a decent matchup in Minnesota (83 wRC+, 23 K%, 8.5 HR/FB vs LHP). The only other two pitchers exceeding a 22.1 K% on the board face each other in Colorado.
Other tagged players: Corey Kluber, J.A. Happ