DFS Alerts
Thrown for a Curve
THE BAT currently has three teams projected for more than five runs on Monday’s main slate: New York Yankees, Arizona Diamondbacks, and the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies come in with the highest projected team total at 5.98 runs as they host Zack Godley. Godley is a better pitcher than his 4.51 ERA would indicate – he owns a 4.01 SIERA – but Coors is known to destroy even average pitchers. Perhaps the biggest problem for Godley pitching in Coors is his curveball usage. The curveball is Godley’s most used pitch this season (40.8%) and pitches that rely on vertical movement typically lose effectiveness in the Denver altitude.
Other tagged players: David Dahl, Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story
Neutral Matchup, Good Park
The Yankees are one of two main slate teams that opened with an implied run total of five or more runs. New York will travel to Minnesota as they get a matchup against Kyle Gibson at Target Field. Target Field represents a power downgrade for the Yankees but an extra base upgrade and is still a positive hitting environment. Despite a downgrade from Yankee Stadium, Target Field still plays above neutral for power and long balls are something that Gibson has struggled with this season as the Twins righty is the owner of a 14.6% HR-to-flyball-ratio. Gibson largely represents a neutral matchup for Yankees hitters but with the lack of favorable hitting environments New York represents one of the top stacks of the night.
Other tagged players: Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius Go Overweight
Man, German Marquez has been dealing. Marquez has been the most consistent pitcher of Monday’s probable starters but the Diamondbacks still have one of the highest implied run totals of the slate (4.7) because of this game being played at hitter friendly Coors. Coors’ huge outfield helps increase extra base hits and plays well to speed – not only will speedsters like Pollock be able to stretch singles into doubles, or doubles into triples, but they also have a favorable stolen base matchup against Marquez (and hopefully Iannetta) who has been poor in terms of stolen base prevention this season. Diamondbacks ownership may be suppressed due to German’s recent performance so it shouldn’t be too hard to go overweight on the field in GPPs.
Other tagged players: A.J. Pollock, Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta A Good Pitcher In A Good Matchup
I expect that we’re going to see Sean Newcomb as the chalky SP2 tonight with a trip to San Francisco. I get that the salary looks great for the pitching environment, but he’s been downright awful recently and I would rather find the extra salary to get a pitcher who is actually good. J.A. Happ has maintained a strong 26.6% K rate throughout the season, and his solid 6.9% walks are down to just 4.9% in the second half. The Twins are not a good team against left-handed pitching, with a projected lineup that has a .126 ISO, .297 wOBA and 22.9% K against left-handed pitching. Happ is fairly priced with a solid mix of skills and matchups giving him a solid floor and plenty of upside.
Better of Late
Jakob Junis is another pitcher that has been much better of late. Ignore the 5.22 ERA – Junis has posted a 3.36 SIERA over his last five starts and is generating a ton of swings and misses with a 11 SwStr%. Junis’ strikeout totals have spiked recently and he has a great strikeout matchup against a whiff-heavy White Sox offense – PlateIQ has the White Sox projected lineup with a 24.9% strikeout rate. Notably, the total for this game has already come down a half of a run and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it decrease even further. Both pitchers toeing the rubber in Kauffman make for strong GPP plays.
Strong Recent Numbers
I never thought I would see the day where Lucas Giolito was chalk but that was the case Giolito’s last start against Detroit. And it was miserable – Giolito only lasted 1.1 innings and gave up five runs (four earned). Prior to his last outing, Giolito was actually pitching well. Even if you include his last start, Giolito’s last month (five starts) the righties numbers are strong: 3.29 SIERA, 27% strikeout rate. Those numbers are too good for a guy that’s only $4,700 on DraftKings. In addition to his strong recent numbers, Giolito gets a favorable road matchup against the Royals at pitcher friendly Kauffman Stadium. There’s always risk associated with rostering Lucas Giolito but his dirt cheap price tag goes a long ways to fitting in your desired hitters.
He's Still Good
I’m just going to keep playing Ryan Braun against left-handed pitching as long as he’s sitting at this type of salary. The guy has the 4th highest hard hit rate in all of baseball against left-handed pitching at 54%, leading to a huge .281 ISO and .382 wOBA. As both guys age, Braun’s skills against lefties have held up better than Jon Lester’s skills against righties, as he’s down to an 18.5% K rate to righties, and the 25% soft contact to lefties is down to just 15% against righties. I’ll side with Braun in this battle of 34-year olds.
Still The Best Spot
This is not an ideal Coors Field night, and certainly not a must-play with good pitchers on both sides, but it still stands out on a slate where nothing is an ideal spot anywhere. The Rockies have the highest projected team total by a wide margin, and Charlie Blackmon will lead things off after hitting three homers in the last two games and collecting six multi-hit games in his last 11. Zack Godley’s strikeouts drop to a just below average 21.9% rate to lefties and his curveball, which he uses nearly 40% of the time against lefties will not have it’s usual bite in this altitude.
Still The Best Spot
This is not an ideal Coors Field night, and certainly not a must-play with good pitchers on both sides, but it still stands out on a slate where nothing is an ideal spot anywhere. German Marquez has been fantastic for the past couple months, and keeps Arizona way out of must-play territory, but if there’s a way to play against him, it’s with the lefties where his strikeouts drop to 19.8% and his ground balls drop to 44%. Eduardo Escobar is nicely priced on all sites for his .254 ISO, 40% hard hits and .357 wOBA against righties. He should be near the top of the order and also has the switch hitting edge when Colorado gets into the bullpen.
Let The Salaries Decide
The weather is looking sketchy in New York tonight, so deGrom may end being unuseable, but I will start with deGrom in the Core, as he would be a no brainer, ‘don’t overthink it’ play on FanDuel if the weather allows. It is absurd that he is cheaper than Corey Kluber tonight, and that’s no jab at Kluber, but simply disrespectful of the brilliance of deGrom. He has 20 straight quality starts and has 9+ strikeouts in seven of his last nine outings. All of those starts have come against much tougher competition than what he faces tonight, and this will be a 100% lock button must play if the weather allows.
Let The Salaries Decide
Kluber was the pitcher I was starting with on DK/FDRFT even before the Mets postponment, but he’s even more of the clear top option now that Jacob deGrom is no longer an option. Kluber’s strikeout rate doesn’t match deGrom’s, but it has been trending upward at 27.4% since the All-Star Break, and his elite control is always there giving him a solid floor. He can pile up easy innings, and a trip to Tampa should help in that regard. He has 7+ innings in seven of his last ten games, which raises his ceiling even if the strikeouts remain in the good, not great range. But he has reminded us that the strikeouts can be there when he wants them, with 10 strikeouts in his last start after striking out eight of these Rays two starts ago. He’ll be my cash game ace on the two pitcher sites and has plenty of upside to be valuable in tournaments as well.
Really Cheap On FanDuel
Jeff Brigham has shown decent strikeout stuff in the Minors, but when he went from AA to AAA he saw a 7% drop in his strikeout rate. He also had a 4.36 xFIP with a 1.26 WHIP in 52.1 innings in AAA. Brigham’s HR/9 also went from .24 to 1.20 from AA to AAA. It’s been a rough season for Jay Bruce in terms of injuries, but he is a great value on FanDuel tonight. He has a .420 CXwOBA with a 36.2% hard-hit rate against he’s still more of a fly ball hitter. With limited value options on FanDuel tonight, if you’re paying up at pitcher, Jay Bruce is a nice value in this matchup.
Great Matchup To Attack
Justin Bour is right on that salary cutoff of what I like to use for salary savers, but he’s a nice value at this price for this matchup. Fedde hasn’t shown any type of strikeout stuff, and almost everything off the bat against him is getting hit hard (48.6% – 95MPH%). Playing in Philly is way different than playing in Miami, as it’s a much better hitter’s ballpark. Bour has a .227 ISO with a .460 CXwOBA and a 40% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. I love his upside in this matchup, and I think Philly is a really sneaky stack on this slate overall.
Love His DraftKings Price
I think Junis is an interesting option against the strikeout-heavy White Sox team, but I also like the upside from the lefties in this lineup. Moncada should hit leadoff tonight, and when he makes contact, he’s a very impressive hitter. His downside is his 34.1% strikeout rate, but his upside is his .464 CXwOBA. He also has a .192 ISO with a 91.1 average exit velocity against right-handed pitching this season. Junis has a strikeout rate under 20% against lefties, so these are the types of matchups where I like to take a shot on the strikeout-prone lefties.
Worth The Risk At This Price
After posting four good starts in a row, Lucas Giolito let a lot of people down in his last start against the Tigers. He gets a chance to get back on track and make up for it tonight against the Royals. Over the last 30 days, Giolito’s strikeout rate is up 9.7%, and his ahead% is up 11.7%. Pitching ahead is very important in baseball, and any time I see that stat trending in the right direction, it is a good thing. His outside swinging strike rate is up as well, and I feel like that’s a direct correlation with him pitching ahead. O’Hearn and Perez worry you, but the rest of this team is underwhelming, which makes Giolito an interesting option at his price tag.