DFS Alerts
Ready to Break Out Against Lefties?
His numbers against lefties have been extremely underwhelming this year compared to his career averages, but I’ll bank on some improvement at Coors Field. His price tag is much more affordable than some of the other big bats for the Dodgers, and he could be looking at five at-bats with his spot at the top of the order in a road game where the Dodgers are guaranteed to hit nine times even if they are leading. While his profile against LHP lacks punch this year, there are some positive signs, namely his 14.5% walk rate. That suggests the batting eye is still there, and some of his poor results can be attributed to bad luck. I expect regression from Freeland on the mound, and I hope Dozier can start making that happen.
Start of Saturday's SDP-CIN game will be moved up to 3:10 pm EST due to expected inclement weather
The start of the matchup between the San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds on Saturday afternoon has been pushed up to 3:10 pm EST, a full hour before it’s originally scheduled start time. The confirmed earlier start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Matt Harvey and Robbie Erlin not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, players from this contest do carry a decent amount of risk if the teams are unable to fit this game in the perceived window prior to severe weather arriving in Cincinnati and the surrounding area.
As reported by: the Cincinnati Reds via Twitter
Almost Always a Top Stack
Any time they square off against a weak RHP the Indians vault to the top of the list of teams to stack, and today is no different as they face Sean Reid-Foley on the road in Toronto. In limited innings this season Reid-Foley has struggled, allowing wOBAs of .425 and .448 to LHH and RHH, respectively. He also has a 13% BB rate, which is something to target when stacking against a pitcher because it ensures there will be runners on and opportunities for big innings throughout the game. The Indians lead the MLB in HC% vs RHP, which is bad news for Reid-Foley who allows nearly 50% HC to begin with. The whole top of this order is in play – look for the Tribe to score early and often in this soft matchup.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion
A High-Upside Arm at a Discount
On an evening slate where few true aces are taking the hill, Jose Berrios offers a nice mix of affordability and upside in a solid matchup against the Royals. While he hasn’t been great his last two starts, this is a guy who just two weeks ago was priced above 10K on both sites, and now is only 8K on DraftKings and 8.3K on Fanduel. Berrios possesses a respectable 24.6% K rate and is one of the few arms on the slate to have a SIERA lower than his actual ERA, indicating some positive regression may be incoming as well. Berrios is also the largest SP favorite on the slate, as the Twins are expected to provide plenty of run support as they tee-off on Jorge Lopez and a weak Royals bullpen. Berrios makes for a solid cash game play due to his price point and likeliness of picking up the win, and brings GPP upside to the table as well.
Ben Gamel scratched Friday; Jean Segura replaces
Gamel has been scratched from the Mariners original confirmed lineup and will not start in Friday’s matchup against the New York Yankees due to a managerial decision. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jean Segura, who will shortstop and slot into the second spot in the order, which shifts Dee Gordon to center field defensively, while Denard Span and Kyle Seager each slide down in the batting order to fifth and seventh, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Mariners order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Masahiro Tanaka at home this evening.
As reported by: Ryan Divish via Twitter Other tagged players: Jean Segura Start of Friday's CHC-WAS game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals on Friday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Nationals have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. Since starting pitchers in this contest aren’t likely to be heavily targeted options in daily fantasy formats, the late start obviously doesn’t do much to add to their overall fantasy appeal, and as Kevin Roth detailed in his updated forecast, hitters from this game are far from safe given the chance of a late postponement and the Nationals sketchy history with weather-related decisions.
As reported by: Chelsea Janes via Twitter Start of Friday's SDP-CIN game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds on Friday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Reds have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Anthony DeSclafani not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, players from this contest do carry some risk if the teams and Major League Baseball choose to not wait out a potentially lengthy weather delay.
As reported by: Mark Sheldon via Twitter Six batters above a .200 ISO against RHP
It’s not very common to see a west coast park boast an offense with a top three implied run line on a full slate, but on a board loaded with high end pitching, the Texas Rangers are offering up Yovani Gallardo (13.7 K%, 5.50 SIERA, .368 xwOBA) in Oakland. Same handed batters have a .393 wOBA against Gallardo this year, though batters from either side are within four points of a .370 xwOBA. Matt Chapman (150 wRC+, .276 ISO) and Khris Davis (143 wRC+. .317 ISO) have done the most damage against RHP this year. Ramon Laureano (136 wRC+, .235 ISO) is a small sample superstar, but a very affordable leadoff bat. In all, each of the first six batters in the order are above a 115 wRC+ and .200 ISO against RHP this year.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis, Ramon Laureano, Yovani Gallardo
One large weather concern looming over Friday's slate
The forecast has been updated for Friday night and while light rain is possible in a few spots, there is one major area of concern on the slate. The full forecast is available on the Weather page. Kevin will be updating premium subscribers further on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
Left side of the infield destroys LHP
The Rockies have one of their lowest implied totals in a long time at Coors Field (4.35) because Clayton Kesrhaw has been pitching his best baseball of 2018 and RHBs have a .248 wOBA against him this season (LHBs .301). However, considering the environment, Nolan Arenado (208 wRC+, .396 ISO) and Trevor Story (179 wRC+, .384 ISO) have to be strongly considered here. They have been absolutely destroying LHP this year. The cost and matchup should even lower the ownership. DJ LeMahieu (121 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Charlie Blackmon (96 wRC+, .146 ISO) may play as part of a contrarian stack as well, though it would be very difficult to afford.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Clayton Kershaw, DJ LeMahieu, Charlie Blackmon Tough to imagine a rougher start to a career than this pitcher
Stephen Gonsalves has started three games for the Twins. He’s not ready. Opponents have scored 14 runs in 10 innings. He’s struck out five of 58 batters and walked twice as many. Batters from both sides of the plate exceed a .480 wOBA and xwOBA and 50% hard hit rate. It a small sample to be sure, but perhaps one daily fantasy plays can act off of tonight with the lowly Royals opposing him in a positive run environment. Whit Merrifield (156 wRC+, .180 ISO), Raul Modesi (93 wRC+, .224 ISO) and Salvador Perez (101 wRC+, .193 ISO) are the top batters in this lineup against southpaws this year. Only one other batter is above a 75 wRC+ and no other batter is above a .120 ISO against them.
Other tagged players: Salvador Perez, Adalberto Mondesi, Stephen Gonsalves Ben Zobrist (neck) scratched Friday; Ian Happ replaces
Zobrist has been scratched from the Cubs original confirmed lineup and will not start in Friday’s matchup against the Washington Nationals due to neck stiffness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Ian Happ, who will play center field and slot into the ninth spot in the order, which bumps David Bote all the way up to the sixth spot, while Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber each move up one batting position to fourth and fifth, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Cubs order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Joe Ross on the road this evening.
As reported by: the Chicago Cubs via Twitter Other tagged players: Ian Happ One of the best offenses in the best park, but a difficult pitcher
The Dodgers have one of the strongest and deepest lineups in baseball. Take them from one of the most negative run environments and put them in Coors and the biggest surprise is that they have just the second highest implied run line on the slate and not the highest. Also, that that implied run line is just 5.15. That’s because Jon Gray has held RHBs below a .305 wOBA and xwOBA and LHBs below .300, quite the accomplishment for a guy who pitches half his games at Coors, especially considering he was sent to the minors before the All-Star break. Still, he’s dealing with a lineup in which every single batter is above a 115 wRC+ and the lowest ISO vs RHP this season is .199 (Justin Turner). The Dodgers still boast some of the highest upside bats on the board tonight in Turner, Joc Pederson (137 wRC+, .280 ISO), Manny Machado (144 wRC+, .245 ISO), Max Muncy (157 wRC+, .343 ISO) and Cody Bellinger (132 wRC+, .232 ISO).
Other tagged players: Justin Turner, Manny Machado, Jon Gray, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger Major park upgrade and still a potent lineup against southpaws
Overall, the Houston offense has taken a step back this year. Partially due to injuries. Partially because there was nowhere else to go. However, each of the first seven batters in the order are still above a 115 wRC+ vs LHP and they get a major park upgrade tonight against David Price (RHBs .298 wOBA, but .330 xwOBA this season). whose returning from a short DL stint with a wrist injury and allowed three runs in three innings against Miami the last time he pitched. Alex Bregman (164 wRC+ .253 ISO), Tyler White (197 wRC+, .333 ISO) and George Springer (138 wRC+, .214 ISO) have all hammered southpaws this year. Jose Altuve (118 wRC+, .132 ISO) and Carlos Correa (131 wRC+, .119 ISO) have performed well with less power. The Astros have just a moderate 4.32 implied run lines, but do justify some exposure here.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Tyler White, David Price Top implied run line vs reverse split righty
Marco Estrada has a very large reverse split (RHBs .390 wOBA, LHBs .320) that’s backed up by Statcast (RHBs .383 xwOBA, LHBs .324). While Jose Ramirez (170 wRC+, .337 ISO vs RHP this year) and Francisco Lindor (127 wRC+, .258 ISO) play well in any spot, Edwin Encarnacion (116 wRC+, .256 ISO) may be the only other interesting bat in this lineup. He’s the only RHB above a 75 wRC+ or .150 ISO vs RHP in the lineup. In fact, Yonder Alonso (105 wRC+, .201 ISO) is the only other bat in the lineup period above a 91 wRC+ or .160 ISO and he has a -38 wRC+ over the last seven days. Despite these lower lineup inefficiencies, the first half of the order is so strong that the Indians still top the board with a 5.17 implied run line.
Other tagged players: Marco Estrada, Francisco Lindor, Yonder Alonso, Jose Ramirez