DFS Alerts
Billy The Kid
With the pitching options we have on this slate, I’m going to be paying up at pitcher. Billy McKinney presents really good value in this matchup. Since being called up, he has a .283 ISO with a .447 wOBA and a 47.1% hard-hit rate. I don’t think Bieber is a bad pitcher, but he does struggle with left-handed hitters. He has a .401 wOBA with a .251 ISO and a 50.4% hard-hit rate against left-handed hitters this season.
Positive Regression and a Right-Handed Heavy Matchup
Bieber has been quite unlucky this season. A .368 BABIP (league average is close to .300) has led to a 4.66 ERA, even though his advanced numbers are solid. He currently owns a 3.48 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 4%. We should expect some positive regression moving forward, perhaps as early as tonight. His biggest issue this season has been left-handed hitters, but he has held righties to a .276 xwOBA on a 54% ground ball rate. He’ll have the platoon advantage tonight against the Blue Jays and should fly under the radar in all formats. I don’t mind the idea of using Bieber as an SP2.
Top Pitcher Tonight on FanDuel & FantasyDraft
Castillo got off to such a slow start this season, but he has turned it on since the All-Star break. If we look at his last three starts, he has a 2.62 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% and a walk rate of 4%. This is the Castillo that we all fell in love with last season. He should continue to dominate tonight, as he squares off against the Padres. We all know that they have struggled against right-handed pitching, but just for reference, their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .292 with a strikeout rate of 26% against righties. Castillo is an elite play in all formats and I like the spot so much that I plan to play more on FanDuel and FantasyDraft than on DraftKings tonight.
The Closest Thing To Safe
The price tags on these pitchers on DK tonight are low enough that it’s pretty easy to fit a Strasburg/Greinke combo in. There is plenty of merit to saving the salary on Anibal Sanchez to pair with one of the top two, but Greinke is the more proven pitcher with a longer track record of success and is the biggest favorite on this slate. His elite control makes up for the hard contact he allows, and while the Braves don’t strike out a lot, nobody on this slate strikes out a lot, so there’s no drop-off in upside here as opposed to anyone else you might use.
Worth The Shot Tonight
The pitching on this 3-game DK slate comes down to a somewhat safe Zack Greinke vs Anibal Sanchez matchup and the riskier, but longer term upside of Stephen Strasburg in a tough matchup with the Cubs. If playing cash games tonight, I’d stick with the Arizona game, but I want some tournament shares of Strasburg with his full season 28.2% K rate easily the highest on this slate. His velocity is still not all the way back since his return from the DL, but he’s been piling up swinging strikes and has been over 90 pitches in his last two starts. This matchup is not good for strikeouts, but neither are the matchups for the other pitchers on this slate. This is the play for upside.
The Best Matchup Of The Night
It’s been a rocky season for Castillo, but since the All-Star Break, he has a 28.8% strikeout rate that is easily the highest of any pitcher on this slate with low 5% walks. There is still that disturbing gap between his 4.83 ERA and 3.87 SIERA, but he’s been good more often than not in the past two months. Of all the pitchers on the mound tonight, he has the best strikeout matchup against a Padres team with a 24.3% K rate. They also lack the left-handed power to hurt his main weakness. The other pitchers with similar skill sets tonight have more difficult opponents, and I would be looking to start with the upside of Castillo on FD/FDRFT tonight.
The Only Game
If possible, I would want all my bats from this Cleveland-Toronto game tonight. The Indians side is the priority, but Toronto lefty power is the next best thing going tonight. The first base duo of Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales top the list, but we can keep the power upside and save some salary on DK/FDRFT with Billy McKinney. Cleveland’s Shane Bieber has some strikeout ability, but is allowing a huge 50% hard hit rate with no ground ball ability to lefties which has resulted in a .251 ISO against. The sample size on McKinney is still small, but he had power in the minors, and it has carried over so far with a .283 ISO and 47% hard hits in his first 55 PA against right-handed pitching.
Not Even Close
The gap between the Indians and the rest of the offense on this slate is huge. There is no reason to overthink this. With the pitching all being affordable, spending up on a couple top bats is easy to do. The Cleveland duo of Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor are light years ahead of anything else on this slate. Toronto’s Sam Gaviglio is a decent pitcher against righties, but to lefties, he’s well below average with just a 14.9% K rate, 44% GB and 39% hard hits allowed. Both Ramirez and Lindor hit for average and power with high on base ability and they both steal bases. Ramirez has 37 HR and 29 SB this season with Lindor at 31 HR and 22 SB. Just play them.
Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor The Obvious Top Spot for Offense
Cleveland is by far the top overall offense on this slate, as they face a league average RHP in Sam Gaviglio. We don’t have many games to choose from, and there’s no team that can sniff the upside of Cleveland on this slate. All their top bats are clearly in play as a GPP stack, but you might want to differentiate your lineups by taking a hitter or two from the bottom half of the order. Don’t sleep on the likes of Kipnis and Gomes as potential slate-breakers in addition to the obvious selections like Lindor, Brantley, and Ramirez.
Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley, Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes
A Fine Risk/Reward GPP Choice
The obvious arms tonight come with the safety of Zack Greinke and the affordable upside of Luis Castillo (if you are playing on a site that includes the SD/CIN game), but Strasburg is that risk/reward GPP arm that I like to target on slates like this. He will surely be somewhat popular because we have so few games, but there’s enough chatter about a dip in his velocity, and a tough matchup awaits, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him check in at lower ownership than most think. The swinging strikes have still been there, and he shouldn’t be on a major pitch count limit tonight. I’ll take my chances on a short slate.
Target The Power Bats
The advanced metrics generally suggest that Shane Bieber will improve as time goes on given his solid command and overall skill set, but the batted ball profile remains ugly, as he has allowed hard contact at a whopping 45% clip this season. The Toronto power bats make for fine plays, especially on a short slate where we don’t have any options. Lefties take priority, as they have posted a wOBA near .400 and a 50% hard contact rate against him. Both first basemen are in play, while Billy McKinney has arrived on the scene and still has a great price tag out of the leadoff spot. You can throw in a RH power bat or two for good measure, with Randal Grichuk being my favorite of the bunch. This team went off last night against Tyler Glasnow, and there could be a few home runs in the making today.
Other tagged players: Billy McKinney, Randal Grichuk Great Upside As He Gets Locked In
It was a long time coming, but Harper is finally getting into a groove. His batted ball profile has suggested better results were coming all year long, and we are finally seeing that start to show up. He has logged extra base hits in three straight games and was absolutely locked in against the Cardinals in their three-game series. Kyle Hendricks is generally not a pitcher we love to pick on, but I’ll take a locked in Harper against a lower strikeout RHP any day of the week when he gets in a groove. I don’t advocate stacking Washington tonight, but Harper is my favorite bat, particularly in GPP formats.
Start of Wednesday's SFG-COL game will be delayed due to rain
The start of the matchup between the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies on Wednesday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Rockies have not yet committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. Since starting pitchers at Coors Field aren’t typically heavily targeted options in daily fantasy formats, the late start obviously doesn’t do much to add to their overall fantasy appeal, but as Kevin Roth detailed in his updated forecast, hitters from this game will more than likely remain viable for all formats with storms expected to taper off as time progresses this evening.
As reported by: Nick Groke via Twitter
This starter and bullpen amplifies offenses
Safeco is not a spot that screams offense, but Andrew Cashner and the Baltimore bullpen amplifies that sound. As such, the Mariners have a 4.86 implied run line tonight against a pitcher who has allowed batters from either side of the plate a .350 or better wOBA and xwOBA with a below average ground ball rate this year. It’s fairly easily the top four in this lineup players should want their exposure too. That group includes, in order, Mitch Haniger (138 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP), Jean Segura (116 wRC+, .119 ISO), Robinson Cano (120 wRC+, .160 ISO) and Nelson Cruz (140 wRC+, .255 ISO).
Other tagged players: Andrew Cashner, Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano
Still some value in a poor lineup in a great spot
The lineup is not very encouraging and 4.68 runs is a low implied total for Coors, but Antonio Senzatela is not a top of the rotation pitcher, which means any offense he faces at Coors can be dangerous and certainly Joe Panik (94 wRC+, .108 ISO vs RHP this season) stands out as a value bat in this spot, leading off for $3.7K on DraftKings. Brandon Belt (128 wRC+, .260 ISO) has been struggling, but he and Alen Hanson (124 wRC+, .230 ISO) have the best numbers against RHP in this lineup.
Other tagged players: Antonio Senzatela, Brandon Belt, Alen Hanson