DFS Alerts
An eye on the hitting spots in the updated forecast
Kevin has updated his forecast for Wednesday and there are still some rain concerns in a few spots daily fantasy players will be looking for offense in. Player can read the full update on the Weather page. Premium subscribers will get updates from Kevin right through lock on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
A Fair Salary In A Good Matchup
The only thing lacking for Ryu tonight is the pitch count. It’s viable to fade him in tournaments because of that, but the skills, the matchup and the salary all line up here. He has been so good since coming off the DL that he can get to six innings pretty easily even with a 90-pitch max against this bad Mets team. He has a 23:2 K:BB ratio since coming off the DL and even with the limited pitches, he’s reach six innings once and seven innings in his last start.
Still a great spot without their top bat
Are the Angels taking pity on Bartolo Colon? He’s pitching in Texas and RHBs have a .379 wOBA against him this season, while batters from both sides are above a .360 xwOBA. Don’t abuse your elders? So Mike Trout sits. How are the Angels to meet their 5.1 implied run line now? Perhaps they won’t, but the top half of this lineup are all still great plays, especially Shohei Ohtani (178 wRC+, .333 ISO vs RHP) and more affordably Kole Calhoun (97 wRC+, .209 ISO).
Other tagged players: Bartolo Colon, Kole Calhoun Not the same pitcher and a dangerous spot
The 2018 version of Jose Quintana is not the same as in previous years and more specifically the AL version. RHBs have a .334 wOBA and .361 xwOBA against him this year with just a 39.8 GB%. He’s pitching in a dangerous park against a dangerous lineup tonight. Lorenzo Cain (184 wRC+, .195 ISO) has just smashed LHP this season. Jesus Aguilar (136 wRC+, .272 ISO) hasn’t been bad either. Even Ryan Braun (109 wRC+, .255 ISO) and Hernan Perez (117 wRC+, .242 ISO) have shown upside at a much lower price.
Other tagged players: Jose Quintana, Jesus Aguilar, Hernan Perez, Ryan Braun Terrible park for a .350+ wOBA vs RHBs
In a significantly negative run environment, Andrew Suarez can get away with a .352 wOBA against RHBs…maybe. At Coors, it’s just playing with fire. The Rockies have a 5.82 implied run tonight that leads the board by more than one half run and that still might be a bit too conservative when Suarez has to face Nolan Arenado (214 wRC+, .401 ISO vs LHP this season) and Trevor Story (161 wRC+, .333 ISO). Matt Holliday costs less than $4K in the middle of this lineup and has a 258 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Matt Holliday, Trevor Story, Andrew Suarez Powerful lineup could take advantage of a large platoon split
Jhoulys Chacin can be a competent pitcher, but he has a large platoon split (LHBs .333 wOBA, 38.7 Hard%) in a dangerous park. Considering the four LHBs in the top two-thirds of this lineup are all above a 120 wRC+ vs RHP this and Ben Zobrist has the lowest ISO at .176, the Cubs are an offense that should be able to take advantage of these splits from a daily fantasy perspective despite the modest 4.42 implied run line. Anthony Rizzo (128 wRC+, .230 ISO) is the top overall and most expensive bat. Daniel Murphy (130 wRC+, .191 ISO) is a bit more affordable atop the lineup.
Other tagged players: Ben Zobrist, Daniel Murphy, Jhoulys Chacin Negative run environment, but still not a great park for a fly ball pitcher
Houston is one of the most negative run environments in baseball, though it plays power neutral to slightly power friendly, which may not be such great news for Jake Odorizzi and his 28.4 GB%, though he’s astonishingly allowed just four HRs over his last 16 starts. Never the less, oddsmakers have blessed the home team with a 5.23 implied run line that’s second highest on the slate as RHBs have always hit Odorizzi fairly well and this season is no different with a .321 wOBA (.336 xwOBA) against him. A true stars and scrubs lineup, each of the top four are above a 100 wRC+ against RHP, only one of the next five. Alex Bregman (156 wRC+, .248 ISO vs RHP this year) is the star in this lineup in 2018. Tyler White (165 wRC+, .315 ISO) has been a small sample superstar. George Springer (105 wRC+, .165 ISO) and Jose Altuve (141 wRC+, .135 ISO) are not what they were, but both still play in this spot.
Other tagged players: Tyler White, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Jake Odorizzi Lineup construction fails to take advantage of massive reverse split, but still plays in great park
The expectation might be to see the Rangers above five implied runs against a marginal pitcher at home, but they’re just a bit below that (4.89) against Jaime Barria tonight. Barria has pitched well of late. His 4.16 SIERA over the last month is two runs above his ERA (2.19), but Statcast backs the results with a .277 xwOBA. Also, for the season, he’s shown a tremendous reverse split (RHBs .375 wOBA, LHBs .257) and this too is backed by Statcast with an 80 point reverse split. What does this mean for a Texas lineup with basically everyone hovering around a league average wRC+ and a .200 ISO vs RHP? First, nobody stands out as a must have bat, but nearly everyone seems playable with the two lowest wRC+ marks against RHP might be the best values: Elvis Andrus (93 wRC+, .106 ISO) and Adrian Beltre (95 wRC+, .139 ISO) are both below $4K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Jaime Barria, Adrian Beltre Success against RHP at a low price.
The Tampa Bay Rays have just a modest 4.46 implied run line in Toronto tonight, but also some interesting bats. Aaron Sanchez has some massive platoon splits in his 88 innings this year, which sees LHBs a full 100 points above RHBs, despite keeping batters from both side on the ground around 50% of the time with hard contact on about one-third of batted balls. However, xwOBA has batters from both side within six points of .370 due to his 5.2 K-BB%. In fact, he’s walked more LHBs than he’s struck out. The Tampa Bay lineup is loaded with affordable LHBs and perhaps one of the most interesting for value seekers is Brandon Lowe (144 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP) in the sixth slot. It’s a small sample size to be sure, but he has a 241 wRC+ over the last week and costs just $3.2K on DraftKings. Ji-Man Choi (143 wRC+, .244 ISO) has done similar work with a 190 wRC+ over the last week. He costs less than $4K as well.
Other tagged players: Brandon Lowe, Aaron Sanchez Highest implied run line in this park in a while
Possibly their highest home implied run total of the season and if not, at least in a very long time, the Pirates (5.05) are one of four offenses above five runs as they are set to host the Reds. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against Homer Bailey this season and the bullpen isn’t much better (5.04 FIP last 30 days). Jose Osuna is the only batter among the first seven in the order not above a 105 wRC+ vs RHP this season. Colin Moran (107 wRC+, .121 ISO) the only other one among that group not above a 110 wRC+ and .170 ISO. The top third of the order is very expensive on DraftKings tonight, more affordable on FanDuel. However, Francisco Cervelli (135 wRC+, .191 ISO) in the cleanup spot is less than $4K, along with Corey Dickerson (112 wRC+, .188 ISO) one spot behind him.
Other tagged players: Corey Dickerson, Jose Osuna, Colin Moran, Homer Bailey Speed, Power, and an Elite Matchup
The Pirates draw one of the most favorable matchups on the schedule tonight. Even though they are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, a matchup against Homer Bailey more than makes up for it. He has a low strikeout rate, a high hard contact rate, and he has allowed a .380+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. A full Pirates’ stack is certainly on my radar tonight and Starling Marte stands out as one of the top hitters at any position. He brings elite stolen base upside to the table and he also boasts a .339 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Attacking an Elite Hitting Environment
The Angels see a massive ballpark shift playing in Texas. Not only is this a hitter-friendly ballpark, but it’s expected to be warm and humid in Arlington tonight. Add in a matchup against Bartolo Colon and we have ourselves one of the top stacks of the slate. In addition to having a low strikeout rate and a high hard contact rate, Colon has allowed a .365+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Kole Calhoun, David Fletcher, Mike Trout, and Jose Miguel Fernandez are all elite plays at their respective positions.
Don't Sleep on this Stud Pitcher
Taillon is my favorite pitcher of the slate and judging by what I’ve ready from different experts across the industry, I may be alone in this thought. He has the perfect skill set when it comes to DFS. He has above-average ground ball and strikeout rates and he has excellent control. He’s been in elite form in his last three starts and he gets to face a reeling Reds’ offense at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The Reds aren’t thought of as a high-strikeout offense, but their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .303 with a strikeout rate of 22% against right-handed pitching.
Elite K-Rate at Home in a Good Matchup
Ryu hasn’t made a ton of starts this season, but when he’s been on the field, he has been elite. In ten starts, he has a 3.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. He’s hoping to have a little more success against the Mets than the two southpaws that preceded him in this series. On paper, this is one of the best possible matchups. The Mets’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .284 with a strikeout rate of 28% against left-handed pitching.
Simply Too Cheap
The two-pitcher sites have raised the salary on Tyler Glasnow to match his strikeout ability, but FanDuel continues to have him priced well below the top tier pitchers. While his workload is still moderately in question and his control is always at risk, there is no questioning the strikeout ability here. His 30.7% K rate this season is the highest on this slate, a full 2% above Luis Severino, who costs $4,100 more on FD. At this salary, even with plenty of risk, the ceiling from his strikeouts outweigh any downside, and I’d consider him in all formats on FD tonight.