DFS Alerts
J.T. Riddle (sore wrist) scratched Tuesday; Brian Anderson replaces
Riddle has been scratched from the Marlins original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies due to left wrist soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Brian Anderson, who will play third base and slot into the fifth spot in the order, which bumps Starlin Castro all the way up to the two-hole, while Miguel Rojas and Lewis Brinson each slide down one batting position to sixth and seventh, respectively. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Marlins order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Jake Arrieta at home this evening.
As reported by: Joe Frisaro via Twitter Other tagged players: Brian Anderson
A few spots worth watching in the updated forecast
Kevin’s forecast has been updated for Tuesday night and there are a few spots worth keeping an eye on. The full report is not available on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can stay updated through lock with Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.
The unkindest of park shifts
The Rockies are just one of two teams above five implied runs and are highest on the board at 5.52 at home against Dereck Rodriguez. He’s been good with the advantage of pitching many games in San Francisco. He gets the unkindest of park shifts tonight and while xwOBA agrees with his sub-.300 wOBA against RHBs, it does bring him up to .323 against LHBs with a 45 Hard%. That’s still only league average, but enough to pounce on at Coors with the likes of Charlie Blackmon (113 wRC+, .225 ISO vs RHP), Carlos Gonzalez (113 wRC+, .208 ISO) and David Dahl (122 wRC+, .248 ISO). Few probably realize that Trevor Story (107 wRC+, .221 ISO) has been the better hitter than Nolan Arenado (95 wRC+, .191 ISO) vs RHP this year.
Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, David Dahl, Trevor Story, Dereck Rodriguez Tough Pricing Makes the Discount Appealing
Hill has been tremendous since coming back from the DL a couple months back. He fixed his mechanics and he hasn’t been dealing with any blisters (at least not that we know of). He’s been great in this ballpark throughout his career and he draws one of the top matchups on the board. The Mets’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of only .309 with a strikeout rate of 26% against southpaws. This may be a hot take, but given how difficult the pricing is tonight, I actually prefer Hill over Verlander in both cash games and tournaments.
Loading up at this Price Point
Ray is far from a perfect play tonight. He has a very high walk rate, he typically doesn’t pitch deep into games, and he has been roughed up by the Padres in both of their meetings this season. If you are looking for a reason to fade him, I just gave you three. However, I am more than willing to take the risk given the fact that he has a 30% strikeout rate on the season. He’s only $8,700 on FanDuel and $8,900 on DraftKings and he’s a massive favorite at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The upside outweighs the risk, even at high ownership.
Value against a below average lefty
The White Sox are hitting the ball well (112 team wRC+ last seven days) and have a healthy 4.79 implied run line against a southpaw who gets smashed by RHBs (.386 wOBA) in Francisco Liriano. There should be some interest in reasonably priced bats in their lineup tonight. Matt Davidson (158 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP this season) and Tim Anderson (103 wRC+, .196 ISO) are the top bats here and most expensive with ideal lineup spots. Jose Rondon has few PAs against LHP, but bats second for less than $4K on DraftKings. Also all less than $4K on DraftKings or $2.5K on FanDuel are Welington Castillo (110 wRC+, .176 ISO), Kevan Smith (178 wRC+, .135 ISO) and Ryan LaMarre (125 wRC+, .127 ISO). Of course, Castillo and Smith are both catcher eligible bats.
Other tagged players: Tim Anderson, Jose Rondon, Welington Castillo, Kevan Smith, Ryan LaMarre, Francisco Liriano Peripherals show larger platoon issues than surface stats
The Braves have just a 4.27 implied run line against Rick Porcello tonight, but the Boston right-hander has had some platoon issues this year. The actual wOBA (.314) is only 20 points higher than RHBs, but the xwOBA is 30 points above that, while his hard hit rate (39.8%) is more than 10 points higher and the ground ball rate (34.7%) more than 18 points lower than against RHBs. The LHBs bunched at the top of the order for the Braves could give him some trouble: Ender Inciarte (97 wRC+, .130 ISO vs RHP this season), Freddie Freeman (130 wRC+, .170 ISO) and Nick Markakis (124 wRC+, .160 ISO). Ronald Acuna (146 wRC+, .284 ISO) is the only batter in the lineup above a .200 ISO vs RHP this season. If players are considering Atlanta bats, they probably work better as part of a stack.
Other tagged players: Ronald Acuna, Rick Porcello, Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis A top offense tonight includes cheap upper lineup exposure
The Indians are one of just two teams above five implied runs tonight (5.23) in one of the more positive run environments in baseball in Cleveland. It’s generally pretty obvious against a RHP and mostly the same against a LHP, but with a couple of wrinkles. Since RHBs have a .339 wOBA with 20 HRs against Danny Duffy this season, the Indians have snuck Yandy Diaz into the second spot. Diaz has just a .232 wOBA and .281 xwOBA in fewer than 30 PAs against southpaws this year, but the lineup spot in matchup demand attention at a low price point. Especially if rostering the two bats sandwiching him: Francisco Lindor (164 wRC+, .197 ISO vs LHP this year) and Jose Ramirez (126 wRC+, .207 ISO). Further affordable exposure can be found in the fifth spot in Brandon Guyer (125 wRC+, .233 ISO), who could be a pinch hit risk late in the game.
Other tagged players: Brandon Guyer, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Danny Duffy Pitching switch sways the advantage
With the announcement of John Gant replacing Miles Mikolas today, the Nationals have moved up the board and are now bunched with several other teams on the top quarter of the board at 4.92 implied runs. Gant has been an occasionally productive spot starter for the Cardinals the last couple of seasons, but this year, his actual wOBA against LHBs (.297) is exactly 50 points lower than his xwOBA (.347) against them. His hard hit rate (56.6%) is over 20 points higher than against LHBs. His ground ball rate (39%) is 13.1 points lower. The Nationals balance their lineup with the one-three-five spots potentially able to take advantage of RHPs with platoon issues. Adam Eaton (131 wRC+, .130 ISO vs RHP this season), Bryce Harper (139 wRC+, .276 ISO) and Juan Soto (151 wRC+, .207 ISO) are your guys here with Anthony Rendon (123 wRC+, .195 ISO) a reasonable stacking accessory.
Other tagged players: Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, Anthony Rendon, John Gant Sneaky Stack in Chicago
The White Sox are one of my favorite stacks of the slate. We talk about it often here in the Grind Down, but Chicago has sneaky upside, especially at home. Add in a matchup against Francisco Liriano and we have ourselves a recipe for a good stack. On the season, he has allowed a .406 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Depending on what this lineup looks like, Tim Anderson, Ryan LaMarre, Jose Rondon, Matt Davidson, and Welington Castillo could all be solid fantasy options.
Slight Discount on the Best Hitter in Baseball
The Angels see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Texas and they draw an exploitable matchup against Mike Minor, who is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. On the season, he has allowed a .354 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Mike Trout (.407 xwOBA against southpaws) is my favorite hitter of the slate.
Playing The Numbers
When looking for some value at pitching tonight, I’d expect a lot of people to look at Arrieta and Giolito. I like both of those pitchers tonight, but if I’m looking to be different, I think Trevor Richards in Miami is in a good spot. He’s shown a lot of reverse splits tendencies this season, and he should face at least five lefties tonight. Richards has a .278 wOBA with a .099 ISO and a 24.6% strikeout rate against left-handed hitters this season. He has struggled with right-handed hitters this season, but I’m hoping the ballpark will help and I’m really only worried about Hoskins. I love the upside for Richards in this spot, as he’s pitched at least five innings in eight of his last ten starts.
Really Like These Right-Handed Hitters
The White Sox are a prime target for me tonight, and Matt Davidson in particular has a ton of upside in this matchup. A lot of these hitters strike out a lot against left-handed pitching, but Liriano just doesn’t strike a lot of right-handed hitters out. He has a .393 wOBA with a .221 ISO and a 16.5% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. In 110 PAs, Davidson has a .250 ISO with a .403 wOBA and a 43.3% hard-hit rate against lefties this season. I want to attack Liriano, and on a 15-game slate, I highly doubt the White Sox have a ton of ownership.
Boom/Bust Value Play
I’m very tournament minded this time of the season, and I’m always looking for value bats that have a lot of upside and could potentially be low owned. Franmil Reyes is one of those guys tonight, and with a matchup against Robbie Ray, he should see pretty low ownership. Ray has struggled a lot with right-handed hitters this season, even though he has a big strikeout rate against them. He has a .372 wOBA with a .202 ISO and a 43.9% hard-hit rate against righties in 2018. Reyes has a massive 31.5% strikeout rate in 54 PAs against lefties, but he has an insane .370 ISO and .608 CXwOBA. When he makes contact he gets a lot of hard contact, and I love the boom/bust option with this spot.
Low Owned Value Play
One of my favorite value plays against left-handed pitching over the last month has been Ryan LaMarre. He is always really low owned, and when people look at his .127 ISO, they’re not really excited about playing him. He has a .362 wOBA with a .422 CXwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate against left-handed pitching. He strikes out a lot, so I like to target him against lefties that have lower strikeout rates. Liriano has a 16.5% strikeout rate with a .221 ISO and a 34.6% hard-hit rate against right-handed hitters this season.