DFS Alerts
Lower implied run line against a top arm, but still playable at home
A 4.43 implied run line is very low for the Red Sox at Fenway, but it’s still the sixth best mark on the board among 20 teams. Carlos Carrasco has pitched into the seventh inning in six straight starts and tops the board with a 16.8 SwStr%, 2.51 SIERA, and .250 xwOBA over the last month. He’s a very difficult assignment, but in a positive run environment and even if playing Carrasco, it might make some sense to hedge with elite Boston bats at home. Carrasco has a 20 point split this year, but xwOBA has a 23 points split in the other direction with batters from either side below .305 by either metric. J.D. Martinez (197 wRC+, .397 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is always a top overall bat at home, no matter the pitcher. Much the same with Mookie Betts (152 wRC+, .258 ISO). Andrew Benintendi (132 wRC+, .184 ISO) and the hot hitting Xander Bogaerts (126 wRC+, .227 ISO) could be considerations as well.
Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Carlos Carrasco, Xander Bogaerts
Odd lineup construction for one of tonight's top projected offenses
The Cubs (5.5) are one of just two teams above five implied runs tonight against Francisco Liriano, who has the highest xwOBA on the board (.381) among those with more than just a couple of starts. His ERA estimators are all well above five and RHBS have a .371 wOBA against him this year. So it makes perfect sense that the Cubs will bat all three of their LHBs (.227 wOBA, 55.8 GB% vs Liriano) among the first five in the order tonight, including brand new leadoff man Daniel Murphy (56 wRC+, .100 ISO vs LHP last calendar year). Perhaps Maddon is thinking of advantages later on in the game since Liriano outings generally don’t last very long (averaging just five innings per start with a mediocre bullpen behind him – 4.15 FIP, 15.8 K-BB% last 30 days). Javier Baez (133 wRC+, .240 ISO) is the coveted bat here. He, David Bote (139 wRC+, .188 ISO) and Willson Contreras (128 wRC+, .175 ISO), both near the bottom of the order are the only thee batters in the lineup above a 100 wRC+ and 105 ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Francisco Liriano, David Bote, Willson Contreras Facing a Double-A Pitcher in Coors Field
The Rockies are the top stack of the slate. They are expensive and they will be popular, but rightly so. They are facing a pitcher that has spent most of his season at the Single-A and Double-A levels. Jacob Nix might be good eventually, but he’s not ready for the majors and he’s certainly not ready to pitch well in Coors Field. Any hitter that cracks this Rockies’ lineup is going to be on my radar tonight. Individually, Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, and Trevor Story are all elite plays at their respective positions.
Daily Bullpen Alert: Worst pen on the board could lead to a contrarian approach
Four bullpens carry a FIP at five runs or worse over the last 30 days. Three of them were active on the day slate, which leaves us with an interesting spot on Wednesday night. Stephen Strasburg makes his first start anywhere in over a month and only his second major league start since June 8th. His 39.6% 95+ mph EV is actually worst on the board and also worst on the board, the FIP for the Washington Nationals’ bullpen over the last month (5.12 with a 12.4 K-BB%). Players may want to consider a contrarian approach with Philadelphia bats tonight. Jacob Nix, Casey Kelly and Odrisamer Despaigne have a combined total of five starts this season, all averaging less than five innings. The Padres take the best bullpen in the majors (2.91 FIP, 23.3 K-BB% last 30 days) into Coors. The Giants (3.90 FIP, 15.3 K-BB%) face the Mets in NY. The Angels (4.14 FIP, 11.9 K-BB%) are the weakest of the pens here in Arizona.
One matchup to look for marginally priced pitching in
Mid-priced pitching options don’t offer much tonight, but the matchup players should be looking at is probably in Miami. It’s one of the most negative run environments in baseball, featuring one of the worst offenses (Marlins 79 wRC+, 8.7 HR/FB at home, 83 wRC+, 15.5 K-BB% vs RHP). Lance Lynn did allow five runs in four innings against the Blue Jays last time out, but struck out 22 of 64 batters previously for the Yankees, allowing just one run in 16.1 innings. He has walked six of his last 42 though. Pablo Lopez handled the Yankees yesterday and Trevor Richards is another very interesting low cost pitcher. He has allowed four of his nine major league HRs over his last two starts, but he has a 25 K% over his last 10 starts (15.2 K-BB%). His 38.7% 95+ mph is a bit of a concern (and only behind Strasburg incidentally), but the park can help with hard contact and this Yankee lineup is not at full strength.
Other tagged players: Lance Lynn Pitching is Almost too Easy Tonight
Gray is my favorite pitcher of the slate when you factor in salaries. I hate to give away too much, but it’ll be hard for me to not roll with the duo of Syndergaard/Gray on multi-pitcher sites. Gray has a high ERA, but he owns a 3.32 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. He has good control and an above-average ground ball rate. Yes, he’s pitching in Coors Field, but we have a pitcher with an elite skill set that is facing the Padres at a price of only $7,800 on DraftKings. The projected lineup for San Diego has an average xwOBA of .279 with a 33% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
Great matchup for tonight's top contact manager and SwStr%
Interestingly, six pitchers (two on FanDuel, four on DraftKings) reach the $10K price point tonight, but none of them are above $10K on both sites. Carlos Carrasco is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, but just sixth most on DraftKings, where he could be of interest despite pitching at Fenway (Red Sox 115 wRC+ at home, 116 wRC+, 18.6 K% vs RHP). He’s pitched into the seventh inning in six straight starts and tops the board with a 16.8 SwStr%, 2.51 SIERA, and .250 xwOBA over the last month. Jack Flaherty tops the board with a 30.3 K% for the season. He’s the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, but just fourth most on FanDuel. He’s in one of the most negative run environments tonight, but facing a Dodgers’ offense with a 137 wRC+ and 4.7 K-BB% over the last seven days. Walker Beuhler is next most expensive on DraftKings on the other side of that matchup. His strikeout rate is up to 28.8% over the last month. His .281 xwOBA is second best on the board this season and he’s completed six innings with one run or less in three of his last four starts. He’ll be facing a predominantly RH lineup and same-handed batters have just a .257 wOBA against him. Stephen Strasburg is the other $10K pitcher on FanDuel. He’s pitched in one major league game since June 8th and nowhere in over a month. Noah Syndergaard has just a 19.3 K% over the last month, but the same 14.4 SwStr% as his season mark over that span, which is also tied for highest on the board. His .277 xwOBA for the season is best on the board (even lower over the last month – .269) along with the lowest aEV (85.2 mph), Barrels/BBE (2.4%) and 95+ mph EV (27.1%). He’s in the best spot among the high priced pitchers at home against the Giants (75 wRC+, 17.2 K-BB% on the road, 26 wRC+, 21.3 K-BB%, 3.5 HR/FB last seven days). Clay Buchholz has an ERA a run and a half below his SIERA and xFIP, while he’s facing a contact prone offense (20.6 K% vs RHP), though the Angels are now without any of their top three hitters in an NL park. He’s still difficult to process with a $10K price tag.
Other tagged players: Carlos Carrasco, Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, Stephen Strasburg, Clay Buchholz Huge Discount for this Elite Pitcher
Syndergaard is primed for a breakout performance. His ERA and k-rate are both trending in the wrong direction, but I’m not concerned in the slightest. Over his last three starts, his velocity has been at his usual levels and he has a 16.4% swinging strike rate. Even more importantly, he threw 101 and 115 pitches in his last two starts. We are getting an elite pitcher in an exploitable matchup and he’s priced at only $9,800 on FanDuel and $10,200 on DraftKings. Sign me up. The Giants’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .290 with a strikeout rate of 21% against right-handed pitching.
One of the Top Stacks of the Slate
The Cubs burned many bridges last night against the Tigers, which may help lower their ownership tonight. If so, I will be laughing all the way to the bank (or more specifically, to the withdraw button on FanDuel and DraftKings). In addition to having a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate, Francisco Liriano has allowed a .398 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Albert Almora, Javier Baez, Ben Zobrist, David Bote, and Willson Contreras are all borderline elite plays at their respective positions and make one of my favorite five-man stacks of the slate.
Top pitcher in top park on the afternoon slate
Marco Gonzales has allowed 15 runs over his last 17 innings. His last two starts have been particularly troubling: 10 IP – 11 R – 7 K – 51.2 Hard%. RHBs have just a .309 wOBA against him this season and he does pitch in an extremely negative run environment, but Alex Bregman (156 wRC+, .254 ISO) is a strong play in the leadoff spot here. Tyler White (181 wRC+, .325 ISO) is interesting at a much lower price in the cleanup spot. Charlie Morton is inconsistent and facing a contact prone offense (20.2 K% vs RHP), but only one other struggling pitcher on the early slate is within a touchdown of his 29.8 K% and he’s pitching in the best park on the slate. He’s going to be hard to get away from here and does not even exceed $10K. He manages contact well as well (29.9% 95+ mph EV). RHBs have a .265 wOBA and 52.4 Hard% against him this year, yet the Mariners opt to have only one LHB (Robinson Cano – 153 wRC+, .182 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) among the first four batters in the order.
Other tagged players: Robinson Cano, Marco Gonzales, Alex Bregman, Tyler White Hardest hitting team faces pitcher with highest rate of barrels
Edwin Jackson has had strong results, but a below average strikeout rate and 4.72 SIERA for the Athletics. There’s not a lot to like in a Texas lineup on the road with a 3.8 run line, but Shin-Soo Choo (139 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is certainly a strong play. The xwOBA for batters from either side of the plate against Jackson is more than 50 points above his actual mark this year. On the other hand, the A’s have been on fire. They have a 26 Hard-Soft% at home, vs LHP and over the last seven days. Mike Minor may be the better pitcher here. His 19.7 K% is higher and his 4.28 SIERA is lower, but his 12% Barrels/BBE is by far the highest for the entire day. Though well behind the Brewers, the A’s have the second highest run line on the afternoon slate at 4.7. RHBs have a .325 wOBA, but .362 xwOBA with just a 33.2 GB% against Minor this season. The A’s have a cheap bat in the second spot: Ramon Laureano (237 wRC+, 75 Hard% last seven days). Stephen Piscotty (119 wRC+, .193 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) is similarly priced, batting fifth. Khris Davis (148 wRC+, 309 ISO) has a 255 wRC+ with four HRs over teh last week.
Other tagged players: Edwin Jackson, Shin-soo Choo, Ramon Laureano, Stephen Piscotty, Mike Minor Nine walks in two starts this season and facing a deep, powerful lineup
Since the start of July, Freddy Peralta has a 25.1 K%, but a 15.4 BB%, 6.13 ERA, 4.92 FIP and LHBs have a .442 wOBA against him with a 52.1 Hard% and 2.4 K-BB%. His one pitch trick without any control over where that 91 mph fastball goes has been exposed by left-handed batters. Unfortunately, the Reds only have one who has been above average against RHP over the last calendar year: Scooter Gennett (132 wRC+, .195 ISO). Mason Williams (95 wRC+, .121 ISO) certainly plays for the minimum on FD and just $3.4K on DK against those stats too. Both he and Gennett are above a 200 wRC+ over the last week. RHBs still have just a .234 wOBA against Peralta over that span. The Brewers are the top projected offense on the afternoon slate by a mile. Their 5.73 run line is a full run above the next best team. Robert Stephenson had a 28.9 K% at AAA this season, but has walked nine of 31 batters faced in two major league starts so far. For his short career so far, which encompasses just under 600 batters faced, batters from either side are within 11 points of a .350 wOBA against him. At least each of the first five batters in the order for the Brewers are rosterable. Only Mike Moustakas (95 wRC+, .200 ISO) is below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP over the last calendar year from that group and only Lorenzo Cain (105 wRC+, .091 ISO) is below a .200 ISO. Christian Yelich (137 wRC+, .212 ISO) is the premium bat here as Milwaukee plays slightly more power friendly for LHBs, though Jesus Aguilar (141 wRC+, .287 ISO) and Travis Shaw (122 wRC+, .266 ISO) can wreck baseballs as well.
Other tagged players: Lorenzo Cain, Robert Stephenson, Jesus Aguilar, Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, Freddy Peralta, Mason Williams, Scooter Gennett Matchup of work horses in early afternoon affair
Carlos Rodon only has a league average strikeout rate with estimators two runs above his ERA due to a .210 BABIP, 79.4 LOB% and 8.3 HR/FB, none of which seem remotely sustainable. However, those numbers have allowed him to record eighth inning out sin five of his last six starts and he is generating an 86.9 mph aEV with just 4.5% Barrels/BBE. He might be a bit over-priced in this spot, but the Twins have an 85 or less wRC+ and sub-10 HR/FB on the road and vs LHP. Tyler Austin (163 wRC+, .348 ISO) is the only batter in the opposing lineup above a 100 wRC+ vs LHP over the last calendar year. The other side of this matchup features Kyle Gibson facing an Abreu-less White Sox lineup. His strikeout rate is down (18.5%) with an increased SIERA (4.45) over the last month as well, but he’s been a quality arm this season with a 22.7 K% and 86.8 mph aEV. The White Sox have a 19+ K-BB% at home and vs RHP. Gibson has completed seven innings in nine of his last 15 starts. Only Omar Narvaez (132 wRC+, .157 ISO) is above a 110 wRC+ and only Daniel Palka (104 wRC+, .256 ISO) is above a .200 ISO against RHP over the last calendar year. Yolmer Sanchez (110 wRC+, .178 ISO) is cheap in the leadoff spot however, but at a slightly lower price, Gibson can give you the same workload as Rodon with an ERA more closely matching slightly better peripherals than his left-handed counterpart.
Other tagged players: Omar Narvaez, Daniel Palka, Carlos Rodon, Tyler Austin, Yolmer Sanchez Walking The Plank Against Lefties
Julio Teheran has been up and down this season, but the downs have been awful, and the overall skills against lefties are just horrendous. For the season he has an 18.5% K rate with 17.7% BB, 42% fly balls and 43% hard hits. Basically, he either walks lefties or allows them to hit the ball hard and in the air. Corey Dickerson and Gregory Polanco will get things started, with Dickerson being the more affordable option out of the leadoff spot. He has struck out just 12.1% of the time and is hitting line drives with a .201 ISO and .361 wOBA against righties. I like him in all formats tonight along with Polanco.
Play the Splits for a Sneaky Stack?
Julio Teheran has had extreme splits for years, excelling against RHBs but struggling against LHBs. I never have a problem stacking lefties up against him, and he’s not a pitcher that people routinely pick on. You can guarantee low ownership here, especially since his opponent is the Pirates in a park that isn’t necessarily great for offense. Teheran has allowed a .329 wOBA to LHBs this season, and some of that is even with some good fortune with his 41.6% hard contact rate allowed and low ground balls. The Pirates might have five lefties in there tonight, and they make for a fine low-owned tournament stack.
Other tagged players: Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell