DFS Alerts

Fire Up Carp and Friends

The Cardinals will be a popular team to target tonight, and I can certainly get behind that as well. Burch Smith has shown nothing at the MLB level with an ERA over six and a horrific walk rate this season on top of a 45% hard contact rate allowed. Do you know who leads the National League in home runs this season? It’s none other than Matt Carpenter with 31 of them, and his .150 batting average from the middle of May is way back in the rear view mirror at this point. Throw in Yadier Molina as a fine play, especially on sites where you need a catcher, and you can really include anyone from this team as part of a GPP stack, too.

A Reasonable Price and a Great Matchup

This is a fantastic spot for Zach Eflin, who gets a major park upgrade and gets to take on the feeble Padres offense in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. The Padres own the second-worst wOBA and ISO in the league against right-handed pitching, and they also are tied for the highest team strikeout rate. Eflin has quietly been solid this year with above average strikeouts, below average walks and hard contact, and a reasonable overall profile. He has a fly ball lean, but that’s not a worry against a low power team in this park. I never love playing Eflin, but this is about as good of a spot as we could ask for, and the price tag is more than fair. He’s a great option tonight.

Top Pitcher on the Friday Slate

The other top pitchers tonight feel a little over-priced to me, and there are still concerns over the workload for Blake Snell, as the Rays will almost surely still be cautious with him. That leaves Gerrit Cole as the most logical spend on the high end. While he isn’t in as good of form as he was to start the season, he still owns a 35% strikeout rate on the year, and he has struck out eight or more hitters in five straight starts. He owns a SIERA and xFIP right around 3.00 and gives the best combination of point-per-dollar floor and upside on this slate.

Alone At The Top

After the Mariners explosion against Justin Verlander last night, there may be some hesistancy to go back to Houston tonight, but Gerrit Cole is the best pitcher on this slate with a 35.1% strikeout rate and 2.89 SIERA that dwarfs the rest of the field. There is still some home run risk here, but he has been bringing his hard contact down more and more as the season moves on, down to 33.5% overall and just 25% over his last four starts. I don’t think he’s anywhere near a must play in tournaments with his innings having been limited for a while now, but this is the highest upside pitcher and one with a solid floor from the strikeouts.

Tyler Anderson was having a great year for the Rockies, but has allowed 11 ERs (3 HRs) over his last 10 innings with six walks and nine strikeouts (45 batters). Coors, right? No…Milwaukee and St Louis. Batters have averaged a 50% hard hit rate with a ground ball rate below 40% over these two starts. He still has a 22.5 K% for the season and last 30 days and an xwOBA below .300 for the season and last 30 days as well. This is tough because he’s returning home tonight to face an offense that can mash. Each of the first four batters in the lineup are right-handed and above a 135 wRC+ against LHP over the last calendar year with only Justin Turner (158 wRC+, .169 ISO) below a .200 ISO. However, he has the highest wRC+ and xOBA (.425) of the group. Tyler Anderson really doesn’t have much of a split for his career and fifth place hitter Cody Bellinger (115 wRC+, .224 ISO) is certainly useful in this spot as well. Matt Kemp (136 wRC+, .257 ISO) costs a very reasonable $4.2K on DK out of the cleanup spot here. No other Dodger in the lineup tonight has a higher ISO vs LHP over the last calendar year.

Home team exposure seems fine, but not a necessity

The Rockies are not one of the three teams above five implied runs tonight, but they’re closest to that mark at 4.96. Rarely are they that low at Coors, but Ross Stripling seemed to be temporarily granted Kershaw-like powers while the latter the big lefty was on the DL. Over his last two starts, Stripling has struck out 11 of 41 batters, but has allowed nine runs and four HRs. In fact, he’s allowed 12 HRs over his last 11 starts and has stuck between five and seven strikeouts in nine of his last 10 starts. A quality pitcher, but not someone that needs to be avoided at Coors. He still has an 86.2 mph aEV for the season with a .294 xwOBA and 24.2 K% over the last month. The price drop to $7K makes this feel like a matchup you don’t want to much exposure to, but some on either side might be okay. Stripling throws either curveballs or changeups over 30% of the time, which gives him a reverse split, though some pitchers elect to abandon the curve at Coors. The three best hitters for the Rockies by wRC+ and ISO against RHP over the last calendar year are all LHBs. You want to be creative and come up with someone other than Charlie Blackmon (126 wRC+, .255 ISO), but while Nolan Arenado (96 wRC+, .211 ISO), Carlos Gonzalez (137 wRC+, .242 ISO), Trevor Story (104 wRC+, .237 ISO) and David Dahl (150 wRC+, .270 ISO) all seem okay (and boy did Dahl’s price shoot up quickly on DK), none feel like they need to be in your lineup tonight, especially if considering high priced pitching.

Two major bargains against one of tonight's more expensive pitchers

Rick Porcello isn’t really a pitcher players should want to attack tonight, but he does struggle with LHBs (.338 wOBA, .353 xwOBA, 41.1 Hard% since last season and 10 of 16 HRs allowed this year. No single Blue Jay is above $4K on DraftKings tonight. Curtis Granderson (111 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Justin Smoak (127 wRC+, .243 ISO) appear to be significant bargains, the former also just $2.8K on FanDuel.

A 13.9 K% and 92.8 mph aEV through three starts

Rookie Ariel Jurado has only allowed seven runs in 15.2 innings, but has struck out just seven of 64 batters (13.9 K% at AA). His .382 xwOBA, 92.8 mph aEV and 50% 95+ mph EV are all easily the worst on the board. While he gets out of Texas tonight, he’ll be tasked with facing the Yankees (board high 5.64 run line), who have looked a bit mortal without their top bat (71 wRC+, 24.4 K% last seven days). A contact prone and hard contact prone pitcher at that, is still not an enviable entity in this park. Also, while Juredo has held batters from either side of the plate within six points of a .300 wOBA through three starts, the xwOBA brings everyone up to between .380 and .385. The top half of the lineup looks strong: Brett Gardner (106 wRC+, .144 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Giancarlo Stanton (115 wRC+, .237 ISO), Didi Gregorius (113 wRC+, .228 ISO) and Aaron Hicks (111 wRC+, .197 ISO). Miguel Andujar (122 wRC+, .191 ISO) has the highest wRC+ in the lineup against RHP over the last 365 days. Gregory Bird (89 wRC+, .219 ISO) is more affordable exposure to this lineup, but he has a -54 wRC+ in 26 PAs over the last week.

Each of the first four batters above a 200 wRC+ last seven days

The Red Sox are the lowest of three teams (25% of the board) above five implied runs tonight (5.25). They are not at home and they are facing a quality pitcher. Ryan Borucki has completed six innings in six of seven starts (seven innings in three), in which he’s allowed two runs or less. He has just a 16.5 K%, but has managed contact fairly well (87.1 mph aEV, 5.7% Barrels/BBE. He’s also a left-handed pitcher who will have to face Mookie Betts (201 wRC+, .362 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Steve Pearce (149 wRC+, .244 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (163 wRC+, .281 ISO). Not only that, but each of the first four batters in the Boston lineup are above a 200 wRC+ over the last week with a combined seven HRs. While the bottom half of the lineup leaves a lot to be desired, the first half should do some damage here.

Non-starter, expected to work in a strong spot

Hunter Wood has not exceeded two innings in any outing this season. Yonny Chirinos is expected to work behind him and has only pitched fewer than four innings in two of his seven outings this season with a low of two innings. We’ve been fooled by the Rays before, but this could be important in a home matchup against the O’s, who have a 16.9 K-BB% vs RHP. Chrinos has a league average 22 K% and 4.02 FIP and costs just $5.7K on DK, where he can be paired with a higher priced arm. He hasn’t really exhibited much of a platoon split, which doesn’t mean much because the Orioles don’t have a lot of LHBs, but batters from either side of the plate are within eight points of a .300 wOBA against him.

Daily Bullpen Alert: Three of four worst pens last 30 days in action tonight, all with rookie starters

The intention today, on such a small slate, is to cover every poor bullpen in play, regardless of starter. The Rangers have the third highest FIP in baseball over the last month (5.14 with a 9.3 K-BB%) and though they get out of Texas, it’s not much of boost as they have to now face the Yankees in New York, behind a pitcher who has thrown 15.2 innings over his three major league starts. The Blue Jays have the second highest FIP (5.42), but an impressive 15.8 K-BB%. Ryan Borucki hasn’t been bad and has been averaging six innings per start, but he may not last that long against the Red Sox. The Orioles have the fourth worst FIP over the last month (5.04 with a 9.9 K-BB%). David Hess starts in Tampa Bay, but generally doesn’t last too long (five IP per start). That makes three of four MLB teams above a five FIP over the last month, in action tonight, all with rookie starters.

Not very good, but probably far too cheap in a great park

Nobody on the main slate can come close to matching the upside of either pitcher in Houston tonight, but the two pitchers in San Francisco both appear far to cheap on DraftKings. Both Ivan Nova and Andrew Suarez are within $100 of $5K on DK. Suarez has a 7.3 SwStr% that more befits his 15.3 K% over the last month than his 20.9% mark for the season and Nova is sitting at just 16.7% for the year. While Nova has a .361 xwOBA, due to an 89.5 mph aEV and 8.6% Barrels/BBE, he gains a park upgrade, which should help smother left-handed power that the Giants don’t even really have anyway (16.1 K-BB% vs RHP, 10.5 HR/FB at home and vs RHP). His platoon splits shouldn’t be an issue here, while Suarez doesn’t really have to worry about much power from the Pirates either (12.5 HR/FB, 12.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHP) in a great park. These are probably both below average pitchers, who become serviceable in this spot at an extremely low price. Neither is going to win anyone a GPP on their own, but they could allow players to roster someone who can.

Matchup of top arms in extremely negative run environment, where K's could be tougher to come by

Tonight’s small six game slate is fairly flush with at least usable arms in decent or better spots, but the clear two top pitchers are facing each other in one of the most negative run environments in baseball. Both pitchers have exactly a 13.8 SwStr% with an strikeout around one-third of batters faced. Both have a sub-three SIERA, though the home pitcher has a near 50 points xwOBA advantage. However, both offenses only strike out 20% of the time against the handedness of the pitcher they are facing. For James Paxton, he actually gets a rare park upgrade. He has struck out at least seven 15 times and gone at least seven innings in half his starts this year. His reverse split should even help him against a predominantly right-handed lineup. In 20.2 innings against Houston this season, he’s allowed just two runs with 21 strikeouts. The Astros may have Carlos Correa back, but are still down Springer and Altuve. Justin Verlander has reached double digit strikeouts in three of his last four and four of his last six starts. His real edge on Paxton is an 88 mph aEV that’s 1.5 mph lower, resulting in a .244 xwOBA. Only 31.9% of Verlander’s contact has been 95+ mph, while 41.4% of Paxton’s has been. Again, strikeout potential may be a bit lower for these two pitchers tonight, but they have whiffs to spare and Verlander, especially, has been accustomed to stepping up in big spots (14 Ks vs LAD last outing). Either of these arms is likely worth paying up for tonight and they could even split ownership. Paxton may be the slightly better value at $1.8K less on either site. No other pitcher on the slate is above $10K, though Rick Porcello is exactly that price on DK. He may often be the pitcher most likely to get a Win, but he has just a 7.4 K% over the last month with an ERA above five. While his SIERA is 3.76 for the past month and the season, his strikeout rate has some how gone up (23.9%) over the last 30 days despite the drop in SwStr%.

At Home Against a Hittable Pitcher

The Yankees could score 15 runs tonight without blinking an eye. They are facing a pitcher that had subpar numbers at the Double-A level earlier this season. Ariel Jurado only has three major league starts under his belt, but has allowed a .380+ xwOBA and a 37%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. A full Yankees’ stack is viable and there are a number of ways that you can build it since this lineup is littered with firepower. Didi Gregorius currently owns a .233 ISO against right-handed pitching.

The Rare Elite Arm in this Slate

Verlander has been elite ever since he joined the Astros at the mid-point last season. In 24 starts this year, he owns a 2.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 34% and a walk rate of 5%. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Mariners, but he’s facing them at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Even though Seattle’s projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .345 against right-handed pitching, it also has a strikeout rate above 20%. From a raw projection standpoint, it’s hard to argue against Verlander as the number one in this slate.