DFS Alerts
Good Matchup Against an Unproven Southpaw
The Red Sox draw an exploitable matchup against Ryan Borucki and are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Borucki may have a low ERA this season, but his SIERA suggests some regression moving forward. Not only that, but his numbers in the minors this year were mediocre at best. There are four batters in particular that are on my radar here and they make an excellent four-man stack. Mookie Betts, Steve Pearce, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts all bat from the right side and all boast a .375+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season.
Paying Down Tonight
Tonight’s pitching options are not the best, and with the top bats on the slate, I’m just looking to pay down. I like both pitchers in San Francisco, but I actually think Nova has a little more upside. The projected lineup for the Giants has a 23.2% strikeout rate with a .123 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. With three of their best hitters being right-handed hitters, Nova should win those matchups. He has a .327 wOBA with a .196 ISO and a 22% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season. Nova has struggled a lot with lefties, but I’m hoping this ballpark will help him with that.
Huge Risk/Reward Spot
It’s always hard to trust what the Rays are going to do with pitching, but both beat writers think it will be Yonny Chirinos after Hunter Wood tonight. He threw 60 pitches in five innings his last relief “start” and has a really good matchup tonight as well. The pitch count always concerns me, but with limited options tonight, I’m taking the big bats and Chirinos. The projected starting lineup for Baltimore has a 25.8% strikeout rate with a .148 ISO and a .303 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
A Top Prospect In A Great Matchup
David Hess has struggled with both lefties and righties this season. He has a .379 wOBA with a .243 ISO and a 16% strikeout rate against righties this season. Meanwhile, Brandon Lowe is a top 10 prospect in the Rays system, and he was having a great season at AAA before being called up. He had a .432 wOBA with a 177 wRC+ and a .309 ISO in 181 at bats in AAA this season. With a low strikeout pitcher on the hill, this is a great spot for Low to have his best game with the big league team.
Not as good as his ERA, but still probably worth rostering in a great spot
The Padres are one of just two teams below four implied runs (3.69), but Junior Guerra has a 3.42 ERA well below his estimators due to 79.1 LOB% that’s been dropping lately. He’s allowed 18 runs and five HRs over his last 22 innings, but considering the position he is in relative to other pitchers on this slate, the guess is that he’ll be popular for less than $8K with a decent strikeout rate (22.8%) against the Padres (80 wRC+, 25.8 K% vs RHP). There’s probably nothing wrong with that today, but players should note that batters from either side of the plate are with a single point of a .345 xwOBA against him since last season and the park doesn’t really favor pitchers. Eric Hosmer (129 wRC+, .153 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and the very cheap Franmil Reyes (92 wRC+, .209 ISO) in the cleanup spot are worth considering, the latter with the top ISO in the lineup vs RHP over the last 365 days.
Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Franmil Reyes
A reverse split (RHBs .248 wOBA, 24 Hard%) facing a predominantly RH lineup
The Brewers top the early slate with a 4.77 run line against Robbie Erlin, who started for just the third time this season a week ago (5 IP – 1 R – 4 K @ Wrigley). With most of his usage coming out of the pen, he’s a difficult arm to evaluate, made more difficult by a reverse split in his 64.2 IP this season. RHBs have a .248 wOBA, 18.9 K-BB% and 24 Hard% against him. While the xwOBA is 40 points higher, that’s still just .288! RHBs have a .312 wOBA with a 44.1 Hard%, but 63.2% of contact has been on the ground. The Brewers have power (17.2 HR/FB at home, 15.8 HR/FB vs LHP), but also have just a 90 wRC+ vs LHP, though their strikeout rate is much lower (21%) than against RHP. At just $4.6K, Erlin could make a reasonable SP2 punt if necessary in this spot. At least the top of the order for the Brewers is worth looking at too, of course: Lorenzo Cain (178 wRC+, .209 ISO vs LHP last calendar year), Christian Yelich (135 wRC+, .181 ISO) and Jesus Aguilar (138 wRC+, .286 ISO).
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Jesus Aguilar, Lorenzo Cain The Affordable Piece
On FanDuel, the salaries on the big outfielders of the Yankees and Red Sox lead me to Aaron Hicks as the top option. All of Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton and Hicks are outstanding plays tonight. But once we pay up for an ace, it gets tough to go past that $4k mark, so I’ll start with the savings of Hicks in the middle of the Yankees lineup against the low strikeouts of Jurado and a beatable Rangers bullpen where he will maintain his platoon advantage with his switch hitting.
A 19.7 K% over his last nine starts with a recent velocity drop
A Minnesota lineup that has Logan Forsythe (85 wRC+, .118 ISO vs RHP last calendar year, but 200 wRC+ last seven days) at the top and Ehire Adrianza (59 wRC+, .127 ISO) batting sixth would seem like a significant bump for Corey Kluber. However, the 2017 Cy Young winner has just a 19.7 K% over his last nine starts and has experienced a velocity drop over his last three. His 24.6 K% for the season is tied for the top mark on the board with Anibal Sanchez and his .313 xwOBA over the last month is fine, but none of this is really a mark of a $10K+ pitcher. His cost on DraftKings is down to $10.9K at this point, which might make you reconsider against this particular lineup, which PlateIQ has posting a 24.3 K% vs RHP this year. That being said, certainly consider Eddie Rosario (146 wRC+, .274 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) against this seemingly reduced version of Kluber. Jorge Polanco has performed well against RHP as well (144 wRC+, .199 ISO), but his xwOBA (.299) is 89 points below his actual wOBA against RHP over the last calendar year.
Other tagged players: Jorge Polanco, Logan Forsythe, Ehire Adrianza, Corey Kluber Makes Everything Else Work
This is a slate with clear options up top at both pitcher and hitter. With a barren mid-range of pitching options, it makes sense to just pay down for something decent and hope for a respectable outing. We don’t need much ceiling at this salary, and Suarez has been very good at home this season with a 22.3% K rate, 5.2% BB, a 3.64 ERA and 3.33 xFIP. His only flaw is hard hits to right-handed batters, but the ballpark helps him out there. This is not an exciting play, and it’s not without risk, but it is exciting what it allows you to do with the rest of your lineup.
One More Elite Offense
Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox. This slate is heavily skewed to these three offenses, and there are bats to love in all these spots. On DK/FDRFT, if you’re going cheap at SP2, you can spend all the way up to Mookie Betts without breaking the bank. This is such a flawless skills set with endless upside, it’s worth spending on. Betts doesn’t strikeout, he takes walks, he hits for power, he hits for average and he has speed. Toronto’s Ryan Borucki is a decent pitcher, but the 41% hard hits and 45% fly balls from Betts outweigh his soft contact skills, and we’ve also got a bad and tired Toronto bullpen to look forward to.
Up and down pitcher facing a dynamic offense in a difficult park
Jose Berrios is generally a quality contact manager (86.3 mph aEV) with an above average, but not dominant strikeout rate (25%). He’s had a lot of ups and downs this season. He’s completed seven innings in five of his last eight starts. However, he’s failed to complete five innings in two of his last seven, allowing six runs twice in that span as well and fewer than three just three times. Cleveland might not be the spot to utilize him. He has not pitched in this park this season (13 IP – 4 ER – 12 K vs Cleveland in Minnesota), but this is a tough park with a dynamic top of the order. Berrios has improved on his platoon splits this season (LHBs .277 wOBA, 19.3 K-BB%), but that’s still probably not enough to keep Francisco Lindor (145 wRC+, .303 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Michael Brantley (131 wRC+, .184 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (183 wRC+, .357 ISO) down against a RHP at home.
Other tagged players: Jose Berrios, Michael Brantley, Francisco Lindor The Ball Will Fly
At Coors Field, we want balls hit hard and in the air, letting the altitude take care of the rest. On this loaded Dodgers team, Matt Kemp has the highest hard hit rate, fly ball rate and ISO against left-handed pitching this season at 49% HH, 52% FB and a .294 ISO. Tyler Anderson has a simply average skill set against right-handed batters, and this will be a tough lineup for him to get through tonight.
A Spot To Load Up
This slate is heavily skewed towards a few teams, the Yankees, Red Sox and the Dodgers-Rockies in Coors Field. Most positions come down to which of those teams to go to. At first base, Greg Bird gets the salary discount to bring him to the top of the list. His main issue is strikeouts, and that is a non-factor tonight facing Ariel Jurado who has just a 10.9% K rate so far in the majors after being just a 13.9% K arm at Double-A. The contact will allow Bird to take advantage of his 51% fly balls and 43% hard hits against righties.
Bryce Harper (leg) scratched Thursday; Michael Taylor replaces
Harper has been scratched from the Nationals original confirmed lineup and will not start in Thursday’s matchup against the Atlanta Braves due to leg soreness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Michael Taylor, who will play center field and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which bumps Juan Soto and Daniel Murphy up two spots to third and fifth, respectively, while Anthony Rendon slides back one batting position to cleanup. It goes without saying that there have been some noteworthy changes to this Nationals order, so be sure to check out the updated lineup on the Starting Lineups page as they face off against right-hander Anibal Sanchez at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Jamal Collier via Twitter Other tagged players: Michael A. Taylor
Dueling Aces
This is a two-ace slate, with Justin Verlander and James Paxton squaring off in Houston. Verlander has been on another level recently with a 41% K rate over the past month and double digit strikeouts in four of his last six starts. The salary gap is wide enough that I am equally happy with the 32% K rate and high innings of Paxton, but the raw points ceiling is higher for Verlander. On FanDuel, it’s easier to get up to Verlander with the hitting values, so I would like to start with Verlander there. On DK/FDRFT, I’m tabbing both Verlander and Paxton as Core Plays, though of course I don’t expect you to be able to play both. This is a slate where you want one of these aces in every lineup you build if possible, but feel free to mix and match them as needed based on how much you’re spending on bats.